Reading Charts in Real Time

[MidKnight 12]

No sir, friend Midk, trade management is no small matter at all - as my currency trading friend said to me this afternoon, "'tis the key to the kingdom, methinks," I think so too.

 

indeed, methinks. Thanks for the good post on the subject. It's funny, up until I came to this thread back in Oct/Nov 2009, all my effort was just on entries and recently it's changed to virtually all my effort on trade management. Hopefully this doesn't take as long as it took me to work on my entries :haha: :doh:

 

With kind regards,

MK

[thalestrader 14]

indeed, methinks. Thanks for the good post on the subject. It's funny, up until I came to this thread back in Oct/Nov 2009, all my effort was just on entries and recently it's changed to virtually all my effort on trade management. Hopefully this doesn't take as long as it took me to work on my entries

 

For all the effort we all who wish to trade put into coming up with methods and systems, performing back tests and forward tests, etc. and so, trying to get our entry "timed perfectly," so to speak, I have nnetheless seen more than one study that suggested that with proper money management (position sizing, trailing stops, etc.) a random entry method would produce a positive expectancy. However, because we sek to control as much as we can, we will persist in our search for the "perfect set-up," which, of course, does not exist. But seek for it we shall.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Current look at the EURUSD (showing the 6E)...

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Current look at the EURUSD (showing the 6E)...

 

Here is how it looks on the 60 minute chart with targets ...

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[DugDug 10]

 

Damn.... I have been away and finally looking back at a few things, trying to actually look at this day trading properly - the first chart I want to post - and Thales is on it already

I have added a small (i think someone referred to it as a chop channel - if this breaks they are usually good resumptions of the downtrend.

 

(I am only paper trading at the moment as I am out of sync with the market - plus trialling Ninja Trader)

 

EDIT:::AUD/USD had a similar pattern, but quickly negated and rallied..... I expect the EUR might do the same.

Edited February 24, 2010 by DugDug

[DugDug 10]

 

AUDUSD aprroaching resistance zone - expect it to fall from here, since there has been a lower low registered in the last move down.

just looking for some sort of trigger rather than blindly selling at the resistance zone and trying to pick the fall

[thalestrader 14]

Current look at the ES showing where I am trying to sell it (this is Ninjatrader and it is set to demo as I trade off the DOM - I set the order in chart trader for illustrative purposes only). My minimum target was 1099.50, which is right now the top tick, so I may have missed my chance to get filled (price is 98.50bid/98.75offer as I hit submit on this post). 1100.50 is the top of the target zone denoted by the blue rectangle. A break above the upper trend line and I begin to entertain other possibilities.

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[DugDug 10]

Thales - two related questions regards timing - I ask as you have the most experience in this sort of pattern you use, and it will be interesting to have your take on it in terms of what you do in real time. thanks.

 

1) do you feel there is a timing issue for when to enter a trade....

example - the pullback in the AUDUSD seems to be occurring quickly - does this normally give rise for concern in your experience - OR just take what the market gives? Do you feel more patience is required?

 

2) Given the recent EURUSD, do you adjust the trigger points - move up the sell trigger point , move down the stop loss - as I have in the recent chart... or do you stick with the original setup? (sorry the old level shown on the chart for the stop loss looks a little misleading - ignore please - but the question remains the same.) thanks.

Edited February 24, 2010 by DugDug

[BlowFish 10]

But surely there are some loose criteria to validate 'sideways',

 

Not making LH LL (for a short entry of course)?

[thalestrader 14]

example - the pullback in the AUDUSD seems to be occurring quickly - does this normally give rise for concern in your experience - OR just take what the market gives? Do you feel more patience is required?

 

I'm not sure exactly what you are asking here, but if you are asking me what I would do if I were just ticked in short, and there was absolutely no follow through, I will often go flat with a market order, and set a new sell stop one tick below the probe that stopped me in.

 

2) Given the recent EURUSD, do you adjust the trigger points - move up the sell trigger point , move down the stop loss - as I have in the recent chart... or do you stick with the original setup? (sorry the old level shown on the chart for the stop loss looks a little misleading - ignore please - but the question remains the same.) thanks.

 

What you have labeled as "old levels" are what I would consider to be the boundaries of a chop zone. Those become entry points (though you should also look for nearby S/R, and as in this case, adjust your entry accordingly), and the stop loss will be the most recent swing pivot against whichever entry is triggered.

 

Here is how it would look in Ninja with 2 lots, two PT's, and waiting to see if the order triggers to set the stop loss (as of the moment this pic was snapped, the stop loss would be entered above the red line.

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[DugDug 10]

Thales - thanks for the answers - it makes perfect sense to adjust - I was wondering if you found in your experience if you did or did not adjust quickly.

AUDUSD - this is proving an interesting example (for me at least)

The question about the speed of the move and retracement was along the lines of ....

given bar A - a big up bar, would you expect a reaction to short it so quickly.

(generally I would say no - apply some patience and await for a more substantial type pullback before looking for a short trade.) This pullback did occur, touching the low of 8885, but then the subsequent rally which has taken out the new high at 8925 - point B

has traded above the original stop, I will say the whole pattern has ended - move on to the next setup?

thanks.

Given the recent volatility - eye currumba - shows the importance of taking quick stops if trying to capture moves such as this!!!

[thalestrader 14]

Current look at the ES showing where I am trying to sell it (this is Ninjatrader and it is set to demo as I trade off the DOM - I set the order in chart trader for illustrative purposes only).

 

Here is the Ninjademo look at the ES. In real life I am short from 1100, not 1100.25, and I have two PT's - 1089.00 as shown and 1079.75.

 

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

... In real life I am short from 1100, not 1100.25...

 

I just realized that the demo "fill" was actually 1100.50 - too bad my broker is not nearly so generous in real life.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

... I am short from 1100, not 1100.25, and I have two PT's - 1089.00 as shown and 1079.75...

 

I left this morning soon after 10:30 EST to volunteer at my daughter's elementary school to help with an ongoing electronics project on which she and some of her classmates are working. At that time, the ES was bouncing a bit off that lower trend line. I fully anticipated that there would be but a bounce, but I also expected that a break would be forthcoming. I come home just now to find this the strangest market I have ever seen. I did not move my stop to BE, because I did think a bounce back to the high might occur before the break. Well, I was stopped for a full -1R loss after having been up 2.77R. Losses do not typically bother me - but this one is not typical.

 

 

Best Wishes,

[MidKnight 12]

Tight choppy trade respecting the immediate minor R above, however, unable to continue to press lower as keeps finding developing support in the 1.5390 - 1.5410 area. The potential support developing is noted, but it does not change my short bias. Every time frame 60m and up can see the nice trend to the downside, even the weekly chart is looking like its finally starting to trend down. I theorize that this 'obvious' trend will be attracting players of many time frames and will probably continue for some time to come.

 

Only longs to be had will be scalps unless there is a very very clear capitulation. Should it capitulate I will aim to be out of 1/2 by the time we trade the recent multi-day range low and attempt to trail the rest and scaling out the remaining 1/2 into 2 separate exits.

 

I don't really have a lot to work with on the short side here...I feel that if it rallied up through the minor R above, then it probably wouldn't go back down much until it had tested the more significant R above again. I'll be alert on a probe through PDH but any shorts from that must be very obvious.

[patrader 10]

6B Daily

[thalestrader 14]

Here is something a little different on the current 6E - the "ABC" is meant in general terms and not as an EW forecast - I'm simply looking at tody's PA as a possible three swing correction against a downtrend. I have a sell limit at 1.3530, a stop loss a 1.3548, and my prospective profit target will be around 1.3440. This is shown on a Ninja demo just to show that orders could be placed prior to PA arriving at the short entry.

 

I trust that everyone here at TL understands that when someone posts what he or she calls a "possible" or "potential" trade that all that means is that orders are placed, but orders have not been filled. There is nothing writ anywhere that requires the market to oblige anyone with a filled order, and if filled, nothing to require a trade be profitable.

 

 

Current price of the 6E as I hit submit is 3505/3506 and the high print of the current rally is 3521. Sell limit is at 3530, though if there is a 3527 print that stalls, I reserve the right to enter short at market for wherever I can get in.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Edited February 25, 2010 by thalestrader
added the missing "l" to "little"

[Dinerotrader 10]

Quick look at oil.

 

[thalestrader 14]

Here is something a little different on the current 6E... I have a sell limit at 1.3530, a stop loss a 1.3548...

 

 

Limit filled at 1.3530...

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Limit filled at 1.3530...

 

Stop dropped to 1.3541, and will go to break even on a print below before 1.3500 ...

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[patrader 10]

15m 6B

[thalestrader 14]

Stop dropped to 1.3541, and will go to break even on a print below before 1.3500 ...

 

I changed my mind and decided to go with a +1R stop on the whole position ... I'm going out to play in the snow with my kids right now, so for the time being, I am holding for either the +1R stop or my +5R profit target at 1.3440.

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

... I am holding for either the +1R stop or my +5R profit target at 1.3440...

 

It just occurred to me that I had not actually placed the profit target order in the demo acount that I've been showing, so I thought I'd better get a pic posted to prove that it is possible to enter orders a head of time...

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

... I am holding for either the +1R stop or my +5R profit target at 1.3440...

 

My daughter wants to stay in and watch this trade play out, so our snow plans have been delayed. At any rate, the drop to a new low below 1.3577 makes for a new MFE of +3R on the trade, so I have lowered the stop on the entire position to +2R ...

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[fxThunder 10]

Limit filled at 1.3530...

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Hi Thales,

 

See no one else has asked the questions so I will then...

 

What was the basis for that trade and how did you arrive at your entry limit price? Is this a support / resistance play or fib pullback?

 

Cheers,

eNQ

Edited February 25, 2010 by fxThunder
typos