Reading Charts in Real Time

[thalestrader 14]

Most people trade currencies here, so it would be off topic when I give FDAX examples.

 

I agree with MidK. Charts is charts and price is price - I would love to see folks posting Dax charts, Pork Belly charts, Credit spread charts, etc. and so on. My primary futures are the 6B, 6E, and 6J, all currency futures.

 

I am also not opposed to swing or position trades being posted here, so long as the poster commits to following up on the the trade throughout its duration. While I do post an occasional ES day trade, sarting in March, I plan to drop the ES for day trading and use it for swing trading only. For example, I'm currently long ES and ZG as swing trades, and I have been showing the daily charts of the Dow and GLD as proxies for these two markets for the last week. And I update them each night that there is significant movements one way or the other.

 

I do plan on adding crude oil to my real trades in March (I have been paper trading this month, and I do not like to change too much once my month gets started. I like to have a non-currency future to day trade, and the ES and I have not gotten on well over the last three months. So, I will post some crude oil (CL) trades here as well.

 

And that brings up another area concerning what might be on or off topic. My approach to crude is, for the most part, different from the 123 approach I use for currencies. I tend to enter on limit orders at S/R, or market orders at S/R depending upon what I see in the DOM. For demo purposes I have allowed myself to take trades outside of Pit session hours, but my plan, as it is now, is to trade oil only at or after 9AM EST, and not to enter any new positions at or after 2PMEST (pit session ends at 2:30PM). Will I trade a nice 123 on the 15 minute crude chart? Absolutely, and there have been a couple of real nice runners off of them this month. But, that is not my sole, nor even my primary approach to crude futures.

 

I never intended this thread to be about a particular approach to the exclusion of all others. I welcome anyone who is willing to post a Real Time chart with entry, stop loss, and profit targets (or a stated trailing stop) to do so, so long as they explain the basis of the trade, e.g. "double top at resistance with 3/10 oscillator showing divergence at the highs with extreme tick readings." What I do not want is people showing up ere with magical secret indicators trolling for customers to whom to sell said indicators for $$$. I also do not want to see people posting questions like "where can I get a Daarvas box indicator?" There are threads and forums for that, and this is not it. On the other hand, if you day trade futures/stocks/bnonds using a Darvas Box indicator, you are more than welcome to post your trades here in Real Time.

 

This thread should be about folks showing others how they go about identifying opportunities in real time by showing the chart at the moment of anticipation, and where necessary or where asked, to supply an explanation of the basis for the trade.

 

So Marko, and everyone, do not hold back because you think a market or a method is off-topic." As long as you are not selling anything, and so long so long as you are respectful to the thread and the other participants, then post away.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Marko23 10]

Still long with FDAX

 

For this system one has to be as stubborn as a mule.

Edited February 17, 2010 by Marko23

[thalestrader 14]

Double yes! That's the essence of Fisher's ACD methode, which I often use with FDAX.

 

Currencies trade around the clock, so the method cannot be applied to them.

 

However, I would say that the concept of Opening Range Breakout does apply to currencies in and around financial enter openings, e.g. a low printed between the Frankfurt open and within an hour of the the London open from which the market develops a persistent trend away tends to continue at least until the NY open. Same with Tokyo's open and the US open.

 

It is a very powerful tendency in Crude oil. As it is in any market with a clearly defined pit session that experiences significantly higher liquidity than at other times of the day. Of course, many advocate ignoring pit hours altogether, read price gaps out of charts, and then wonder why they miss every trend day, or worse, why they persistently get flattened as they try four, five, six entries against the trend day's price direction.

 

Gaps exist folks, despite what you read on the internet. I have spoken of the Trader Vic Gap Rule (TVGR). I subscribe to richbois's TTT service, and he is very cognizant in his commentary of the TVGR. My currency trading friend, who first brought this rule to my attention, or, I should say, brought its power and importance to my attention, calls the following passage a piece of information "as close to the Holy Grail as he has found." I have another friend who only trades on days where there is a significant gap, and he bases his approach to that Gap based upon the passage cited below. One of the first technical pieces of information that Linda Raschke teaches in her seminar is to respect gaps, as gaps are a form of impulse that indicates an imbalance.

 

 

Gaps are real. My entire approach to day trading stocks is predicated and based upon the simple observation that gaps are real, gaps are a form of impulse caused by a supply/demand imbalance, and when not immediately filled, tend to produce trend days in the direction of the gap.

 

Gaps are real. And I am going to tell you all how you can be certain to have more money in your account at the end of the year than you would other wise have by following one little piece of advice about gaps: When the market gaps open and trends in the direction of the gap, and then price goes flat, DO NOT FADE THE TREND. It is the pros sucking in us pikers to feed and fuel the afternoon leg in the direction of the trend. Yesterday the market gapped open, trended higher, and went flat for several hours. The pros are buying during that sideways movement. How many tried to sell into that "weakness"? How many were stomped on as the trend "unexpectedly" resumed. Of course, there was no real weakness, and everyone in the pit knew the market was going higher by day's end, so there was nothing "unexpected" about that late rally leg.

 

For every one time you successfully sell such a rally or buy such a decline, there will be nine times that you get your head handed to you as you hand your equity over to the pros.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Marko23 10]

I agree with MidK. Charts is charts and price is price - I would love to see folks posting Dax charts, Pork Belly charts, Credit spread charts, etc. and so on. ...

 

As long as you are not selling anything, and so long so long as you are respectful to the thread and the other participants, then post away.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Selling? How come? Fisher published ACD several years ago. There is nothing to sell at all.

[thalestrader 14]

LSE opens at 09:00, XETRA at 09:00 German time;

LIFFE opens at 08:00, EUREX at 08:00 German time.

 

What would you suggest as an "open" time for EUR/USD ?

 

I consider 2 AM EST as the European "open" for the 6E and 6B.

 

As MidK observed, moves that begin in and around financial center openings tend to be more tradable than moves that occur during less liquid hours. And the hours between 2:30 PM EST and 7 PM EST I try to avoid. That does not mean that significant moves do not occur during those hours, as clearly they sometimes do. But by and large those hours are dead and choppy and best to be avoided (by me, at least).

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Selling? How come? Fisher published ACD several years ago. There is nothing to sell at all.

 

I wasn't speaking to you, Marko, that was a general "anyone can post anything so long as he/she/ or it is not selling anything."

 

I know you are not a salesman, and I am very familair with Fisher's ACD.

 

Best WIshes,

 

Thales

[Zan-shin 10]

ES 5min short 09:25...........pt1 reached

10:32 trailing stop hit

Edited February 17, 2010 by Zan-shin

[Marko23 10]

This is my first shot for an ACD system for EUR/USD, based on an opening interval 02:00 to 02:15 EST

 

Just to have a look at it.

[Marko23 10]

Would be out now at 2R

 

 

First test with much luck

[thalestrader 14]

This is my first shot for an ACD system for EUR/USD, based on an opening interval 02:00 to 02:15 EST

 

Just to have a look at it.

 

You may want to explain to us how you are trading the ACD. Are you entering on a stop just above/below the range, or are you using a margin beyond the opening range to trigger entry? Do you have a plan that would reverse your position should price move across the opening range against you, or would you suggest simply exit and wait for the next session. I know you just started looking at this today, but those are some questions that might be useful going forward.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[fxThunder 10]

GU 240min chart indicates that it is opportune to consider a long opportunity. Included as well a 15min chart that indicates long opportunity currently.

 

Cheers,

eNQ

 

update: made a lower low - entry premise invalidated.

Edited February 17, 2010 by fxThunder

[Marko23 10]

You may want to explain to us how you are trading the ACD. Are you entering on a stop just above/below the range, or are you using a margin beyond the opening range to trigger entry? Do you have a plan that would reverse your position should price move across the opening range against you, or would you suggest simply exit and wait for the next session. I know you just started looking at this today, but those are some questions that might be useful going forward.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Sure, I'll explain the details during the coming days. From your questions I can look forward to interesting discussions.

[MidKnight 12]

Choppy trade in most of Europe, but a decent trend move down in USA session. The move down has come into the immediate S and should this up move out of the recent range continue, it is likely that the S will hold. I would have thought if the recent range really left so many traders short then we wouldn't pullback any deeper into the range. That is what I would have thought, but I will take my cues from the market rather than what I think. The cues are: major trend down, immediate trend up, but could be about to change. I was surprised we didn't test into the 1.5830/50 area at yesterdays high, that is another sign of caution for me towards the long case.

 

I'm happy to look for longs down to about 1.5630. I'll aim to be out of 2/3rds by the time 1.5760 is traded and trail the final 1/3 for a run to a possible new high.

 

Only very very obvious shorts in the narrow 1.5740/60 band, and again, I am happy to work the R zone 1.5840 - 1.5900 and even through up to about 1.5980 for a while. Have 1/2 scaled out before the first immediate S on the 60m chart. Try and ride out the other 1/2 (or at least a portion of it) as a swing trade ultimately looking for new daily lows. I'll be trailing the stop via the obvious pivot highs on the 60m chart and breaking this up into 1/3rds.

[thalestrader 14]

Dollar, Gold, Dow ...

 

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[MidKnight 12]

LSE opens at 09:00, XETRA at 09:00 German time;

LIFFE opens at 08:00, EUREX at 08:00 German time.

 

What would you suggest as an "open" time for EUR/USD ?

 

I personally use the new york close as my cut off for daily bars, but for intraday, I'd use whatever session you wanted to trade! But that is just me.....I think in that recent webinar from LBR that Thales posted the other day, she even stated that it doesn't really matter what time of day one uses to measure participation, as long as it is consistent. If I was in Europe, I'd probably use London as the open and Frankfurt as like a pre-market....I start my day trading at about 2 hours before Frankfurt open because there is the odd large move in Asia around that time. But in general you can feel it change when Frankfurt opens, and even more so once London opens.

 

:bag_of_salt:

 

With kind regards,

MK

Edited February 18, 2010 by MidKnight

[thalestrader 14]

If the 6E doesn't stop right there with this third push down, then my dollar down suspicions are probably mistaken ...

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

If the 6E doesn't stop right there with this third push down, then my dollar down suspicions are probably mistaken ...

 

 

A tempting long trade right here, but I am actually going to wait and enter on a stop at 1.3585 ...

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

A tempting long trade right here, but I am actually going to wait and enter on a stop at 1.3585 ...

 

 

Ticked 84 (the low of the second push), buy stop is 85, and a new low will be sold by me.

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[patrader 10]

15m 6E chart

[thalestrader 14]

Ticked 84 (the low of the second push), buy stop is 85, and a new low will be sold by me.

 

 

Sold at 65, stopped at 68...

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

A rare instance of four drives to a bottom ...? We'll see. I'm long at 75 and going to bed.

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Marko23 10]

Yesterday's good start for an ACD-like trade was pure luck in my opinion.

But I'll give it a try for the next days

 

This is my setup for today

 

Open intervall 08:00 ... 08:15 German time, EUREX Open

To the high of the interval I add 14 tick, from the low I subtract 14 tick.

These are magic numbers, which will be adjusted during the test.

 

A short or long is taken, when the levels are crossed mildly. What that means, will become clearer soon.

 

Currently no Short, level crossed too fast

 

Price consolidates as expected, a lower low below the short will be sold.

Normally I use a 5m chart for the entry, let's see what can be done with a 15m chart.

Edited February 18, 2010 by Marko23
Update

[Marko23 10]

Interesting situation:

123 up signal below ACD short level: Wait and Watch

 

Short with lower low, will update the chart soon

 

Short at 1.3550 at lower low, 5m chart had a better entry at 1.3557.

Stop 1 tick above the high of the 15m open interval, yes that's huge.

Target 2R or price at 17:15 German time when I normally switch off.

 

Just wait!

Edited February 18, 2010 by Marko23

[Marko23 10]

...

To the high of the interval I add 14 tick, from the low I subtract 14 tick.

...

 

Nearly, this to correct version:

 

To the high of the interval I add 16 tick, from the low I subtract 16 tick.

[Marko23 10]

123 signal wins, but I never mix systems