Reading Charts in Real Time

[forrestang 10]

But, when followed by something like this, it usually means I am too early, and I should close the position as close to BE as I can wait for further indication.

 

 

Do you think that is a bit of a corrective channel upwards, maybe waiting for open?

[thalestrader 14]

Crude didn't give me a chance to snap this pic before pulling back quickly. I wanted to point out that Crude traded to session highs shortly before the pit session opened. It pulled back to about 73.20 immediately following the pit session open, and then rallied back to the pre-pit high. I wanted to say that that would be a decent low risk spot to sell crude with a tight stop. That doesn't mean that the drop is going to continue, and that you can hold a short for 100 ticks or more. It was just to show crude responds to globex highs during pit hours.

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Crude didn't give me a chance to snap this pic before pulling back quickly...

 

I am still demo trading crude, and I entered with a market order - like I said, Crude hit that high and didn't give me a chance to get in at the high or snap a pic. For those who like to see Ninjatrader markers, I show the entry plotted here:

 

 

I would have liked to have been short from about a nickle higher, but between the time I saw what I wanted to see to get short and the time my finger hit the market order button, it was what it was.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Edited February 1, 2010 by thalestrader
typos, etc.

[thalestrader 14]

Closest thing I see to an opportunity at the moment is a short on the EURGBP...

 

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[DugDug 10]

 

Side trade I sometimes see, after a big down bar (8800 to 8750) I find you sometimes get a good retracement if this is broken again. Particularly if there has been sustained downtrend.

I generally wait until you get a "failed down bar" this is the one that looks like the downtrend trend is to resume, then enter on a break above this..... I never chase these, and ideally want to see acceleration up...so if it goes nowhere, just get out.

 

EDIT: it did not accelerate, so out at 6 ticks below entry.

EDIT 2: friken c..k sucking MF I am ..... after I was out it then accelerated at least its 30+ ticks higher.

EDIT3: especially as I realised I was looking at the wrong chart - trading of the hourly, exiting on the 15min..... my neighbour now thinks I have tourettes.

Edited February 1, 2010 by DugDug

[thalestrader 14]

... I wanted to point out that Crude traded to session highs shortly before the pit session opened. It pulled back to about 73.20 immediately following the pit session open, and then rallied back to the pre-pit high. I wanted to say that that would be a decent low risk spot to sell crude with a tight stop. That doesn't mean that the drop is going to continue, and that you can hold a short for 100 ticks or more. It was just to show crude responds to globex highs during pit hours.

 

 

I hope that was close enough to real time for folks to see that price can be read for fun and profit.

 

 

As I do not feel that there is anything left to prove, and I really do not like having those Ninjatrader markers on the chart, I probably am going to revert back to my blue line, red line, green line method of annotation for these little CL demo trades as well.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Do you think that is a bit of a corrective channel upwards, maybe waiting for open?

 

I was thinking so ... but the ES has powered above that resistance level that I had noted with the red rectangle, and actual chart points always trump trendlines, channels, and EW and so forth, so for now, as I am not long, I will wait to see if price reaches 84.50 and then 93.25 and watch how it acts if it does.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

EDIT: In other words, I am in no hurry to do anymore with ES today unless it initiates a move from an S/R level

Edited February 1, 2010 by thalestrader
added "EDIT:..."

[thalestrader 14]

... In other words, I am in no hurry to do anymore with ES today unless it initiates a move from an S/R level

 

I'm not in a real big hurry to get involved here either, though if I were to decide to do so, this is how I'd do it ...

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Cory2679 11]

...I do not have anything close to 10,000,000...

 

Suuure.

 

Once you know what you are doing and what to expect from your trading, you can, as my currency trading friend says, "afford to have a little fun."

 

I totally understand that with the recent OIRC ordeal. My main question was with your daughter...because from what I understand, that wasn't to "have a little fun..." that was to teach her how to trade.

 

And with your daughter, you didn't "know" because she was new...although I guess since you taught her and maybe even babysat her account a little, you know to expect something similar to your own results.

 

I'll leave this alone after this last question (which is basically my whole point of this little discussion I started)....

 

Would you recommend ME (or someone like me) trade a $25 account with leverage like you started your daughter with (and steadily decrease my % risk as my account grows)?...rather than trading a $250 or $500 account with more 'reasonable' leverage?

 

On that note...what type of % risk was your daughter using by the time her account hit $250 or $500?

 

I won't ask any more questions on this topic after this. :embarassed:

[thalestrader 14]

Sell Stop crude demo 73.75 and here is the B/O as of 10:33 ...

 

 

Trade above 74.00 cancels the order.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

My main question was with your daughter...because from what I understand, that wasn't to "have a little fun..." that was to teach her how to trade.

 

She's nine ... if it wasn't fun for her, we'd have stopped immediately.

 

I think that someone looking to learn to do this as a career needs to start with good habits from the beginning. So if I were you, I'd keep right on doing what you are doing.

 

By the time she was up to $250, I had her trade between 20-1 and 50-1 leverage depending upon pips at risk on a particular trade. Though when she caught runners and she was awake to do so, she would add on every break low using a 1 minute chart (and kiwi thought he was the only one who had figured that out), so her actual leverage in those cases was quite high relative to the account size, but still very moderate relative to her actual risk based upon her trade management.

 

All of this is why I stopped posting our results here - folks focused too much on comparing their results to her results and too little on their results and how to improve them. Focus on profit and loss measured in ticks, not dollars. And these concerns with leverage really indicate a concern with nominal dollars, not profit and loss measured in tick increments, which is where the focus needs to be.

 

If you can trade for a dime/tick, and finish each week with 20-30 dollars more in your account, do you think you can then figure out how to increase your size so that each week you finish with 200-300 dollars more in your account? And from there 2000-3000 dollars more in your account? Learn to trade for ticks, and the dollars will easily follow. Focus on the dollars, and you will never find them where you want them to be - in your account.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Sell Stop crude demo 73.75 and here is the B/O as of 10:33 ...

 

 

Trade above 74.00 cancels the order.

 

It is 11:04 as I post this ... exit demo short at 74.46 for +30 pennies, exit a few seconds after 11:00 EST

 

 

Any doubters who wandered in from other forums and chat rooms can look at the entry fill time stamp and the time stamp on the initial post here at TL and decide for themselves whether the post was timely or not.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[patrader 10]

15m ES chart

[thalestrader 14]

Learn to trade for ticks, and the dollars will easily follow. Focus on the dollars, and you will never find them where you want them to be - in your account.

 

This is for everyone following this thread who is still trying to learn his or her way to profitability. If you have a trading platform that lets you turn the dollar pnl off and replace it with ticks or points pnl, do it. Certainly, you should have a daily loss limit measured in ticks, and you should know what it is and you should honor it, whether you are demo trading or trading live. But do not be distracted by dollar amounts. It is only money and it means nothing. The only thing that matters is did you win more ticks than you lost at the end of the day? The week? The month? Once you answer yes consistently to all three, and you are demo trading, it is time to go live. If once you go live you consistently answer yes to all three, then it is time to increase your size, but slowly, and always honor your daily loss limit.

 

 

 

Trade small until you learn how to trade. And always, even after you learn, trade for points not dollars. It makes all the difference.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

The ES has made it to within a whisper of where Id again start looking to sell, though I'd have preferred it to have touched or trade through that level (which it still might do). I did not take the 6E short, and so far I haven't missed anything (which of course, might change). I had thought to take a long on the 6B earleir this morning (which I did not post) but then I thought better of it. That would have been at PT 1 with a BE stop right now - couldawouldashoulda.

 

Here is the current ES:

 

 

 

I did manage to make some demo dollars, though my broker refuses to honor them as real.

 

I am at this point giving serious consideration to removing the ES completely from my traded markets and replacing it, at least temporarily, with crude. So instead of 6B, 6E, 6J, ES, it will be the three currency futures with CL. For the last six trading days crude has proven itself to be a very easy market to trade. I'm going to continue to demo it for a week or two to make sure that I'm seeing what I seem to have been seeing. But right now, it looks like Brownie must be on to something.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Cory2679 11]

Thanks for the reply.

 

I brought this up because of what happened to me last night. I was thinking, if your daughter turned $25 into about $1,000 in 3 months, maybe I could turn $250 into $10,000! (BUT, keep in mind, I can't afford to blow $250 right now!)

 

But that would require big-time leverage. I decided I would start trading with that type of leverage beginning last night....

 

I started off with some losing trades. None of them were full losers, but they were worse than they normally would have been for me because I was trading on my laptop on the couch at my girlfriend's house, something I've never done before and I'm totally not used to, and it messed me up (also why I didn't post any of the trades in real-time).

 

ANYWAYS, after my first 4 trades resulted in a net loss, I quit. If only I would have stuck in there, there were some blatantly obvious opportunties coming up (later last night and then this morning) that would have made me very profitable after it was all over.

 

BUT, on the plus side, I think after this experience and everything leading up to it, I'm truly finally beginning to realize this:

 

...folks focused too much on comparing their results to her results and too little on their results and how to improve them. Focus on profit and loss measured in ticks, not dollars. And these concerns with leverage really indicate a concern with nominal dollars, not profit and loss measured in tick increments, which is where the focus needs to be.

 

I think this has been my biggest issue and why I'm not flourishing right now.

 

It's funny, I was talking to my girlfriend about this last night...over the month of January, my results were scattered...I traded some live, with different amounts of leverage which i kept modifying, I did some demo trading, and I did some live trading "off the record' from this thread..when I was taking my time off.

 

Over the month of January, if you put the pieces together (and ignore my stupid platform issue the first week), I was net profitable every week!...and not 1-2 ticks, decent profit!

 

HOWEVER, the results were indeed scattered.

 

I think I have the trading and money management down solidly enough to trade net profitably. I just keep coming up with other stupid things that get in my way from just doing it and continuing to do it without stopping!!!!!

 

BUT, perhaps now that I am realizing all this, I can finally address it and move on! I feel like I'm just spinning my tires in mud right now.

 

Anyways, sorry about this big post. I think I use this thread a little bit like a journal sometimes. I'll try to stick to just posting charts for a little while.

 

Cory

[Cory2679 11]

...I'll try to stick to just posting charts for a little while...

 

Here's a chart right now, for good measure.

 

Current look at EUR/JPY. Possible short?

Edited February 1, 2010 by Cory2679

[Mr_black 10]

slow day 2 scalps with trend

[Cory2679 11]

Here's a chart right now, for good measure.

 

Current look at EUR/JPY. Possible short?

 

I have to leave right now to help some people with something and I'll be back later...

 

Here's how the EUR/JPY is looking to me now...of course it may climb higher before declining and breaking the low (it's obvious how the SL & targets would be adjusted accordingly).

 

We'll see how it looks when I get back. It is getting later and later, though (the later it gets, the less confident I am in an impending significant move)...

[brownsfan019 17]

I am at this point giving serious consideration to removing the ES completely from my traded markets and replacing it, at least temporarily, with crude. So instead of 6B, 6E, 6J, ES, it will be the three currency futures with CL. For the last six trading days crude has proven itself to be a very easy market to trade. I'm going to continue to demo it for a week or two to make sure that I'm seeing what I seem to have been seeing. But right now, it looks like Brownie must be on to something.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Took you long enough to see the light.

 

Just send 20% of profits to my paypal and we will call it even.

[jonbig04 10]

 

I am at this point giving serious consideration to removing the ES completely from my traded markets and replacing it, at least temporarily, with crude. So instead of 6B, 6E, 6J, ES, it will be the three currency futures with CL. For the last six trading days crude has proven itself to be a very easy market to trade. I'm going to continue to demo it for a week or two to make sure that I'm seeing what I seem to have been seeing. But right now, it looks like Brownie must be on to something.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

:(

 

Actually I have started watching crude lately too.

[jonbig04 10]

Took you long enough to see the light.

 

Just send 20% of profits to my paypal and we will call it even.

 

 

I pulled up crude for the first time over the weekend and just threw some S/R up there to see how it reacted to them today..and damn!

 

Click for full size - Uploaded with plasq's Skitch

[forrestang 10]

I pulled up crude for the first time over the weekend and just threw some S/R up there to see how it reacted to them today..and damn!

 

Are you more interested in the mini or the big oil?

[jonbig04 10]

Are you more interested in the mini or the big oil?

 

Hmm never really thought bout it. I'm watching CL now. Unless one is vastly better than the other, I guess it would be CL.

[zt379 10]

Thanks for the reply.

 

I brought this up because of what happened to me last night. I was thinking, if your daughter turned $25 into about $1,000 in 3 months, maybe I could turn $250 into $10,000! (BUT, keep in mind, I can't afford to blow $250 right now!)

 

But that would require big-time leverage. I decided I would start trading with that type of leverage beginning last night....

 

I started off with some losing trades. None of them were full losers, but they were worse than they normally would have been for me because I was trading on my laptop on the couch at my girlfriend's house, something I've never done before and I'm totally not used to, and it messed me up (also why I didn't post any of the trades in real-time).

 

ANYWAYS, after my first 4 trades resulted in a net loss, I quit. If only I would have stuck in there, there were some blatantly obvious opportunties coming up (later last night and then this morning) that would have made me very profitable after it was all over.

 

BUT, on the plus side, I think after this experience and everything leading up to it, I'm truly finally beginning to realize this:

 

 

 

I think this has been my biggest issue and why I'm not flourishing right now.

 

It's funny, I was talking to my girlfriend about this last night...over the month of January, my results were scattered...I traded some live, with different amounts of leverage which i kept modifying, I did some demo trading, and I did some live trading "off the record' from this thread..when I was taking my time off.

 

Over the month of January, if you put the pieces together (and ignore my stupid platform issue the first week), I was net profitable every week!...and not 1-2 ticks, decent profit!

 

HOWEVER, the results were indeed scattered.

 

I think I have the trading and money management down solidly enough to trade net profitably. I just keep coming up with other stupid things that get in my way from just doing it and continuing to do it without stopping!!!!!

 

BUT, perhaps now that I am realizing all this, I can finally address it and move on! I feel like I'm just spinning my tires in mud right now.

 

Anyways, sorry about this big post. I think I use this thread a little bit like a journal sometimes. I'll try to stick to just posting charts for a little while.

 

Cory

 

The biggest reason for not profiting from trading is in essence because, from the physicality of the market/trade to the mind of the person making the trade, almost everything is a contradiction.

 

The greatest of which is money.

 

Hence, we trade to make money but it's the last thing we should be trading for or thinking about.

 

Regards...