Reading Charts in Real Time

[thalestrader 14]

EURUSD certainly not a convincing move. I wouldn't comfortable with being short or long at this point, and I would rather wait for a more clear indication of the market's intentions. The pattern had me expecting a decent rally, so a break to new lows could carry down to that March 2009 high rather quickly - Not predicting, just thinking out loud.

 

But if I had to predict, I'd be predicting 1.3740 by the time NY opens if the EURUSD breaks and holds below 1.3850. But I'm not predicting.

 

I Pulled the rip cord on the 6J, and will wait for the next opportunity. If you were to pull up a 1 minute chart you can probably figure out where the rip cord got yanked.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

EURUSD certainly not a convincing move. I wouldn't comfortable with being short or long at this point...

 

Changed my mind and decided I'd feel fine putting on the bear suit - here is my position:

 

Short at 1.3866 - sorry for the late post, but price is still within 7 ticks of entry - lots for me to watch right now so no chart. Be watching for 3 drives down for bounce, and targets TBD, but I'll hold some for 1.3740. Be back soon.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

8:51 6E 59/61 - SL at 66

 

8:56 SL 66, filled 65, current 68/69

Edited February 1, 2010 by thalestrader
Trade update

[traverse 10]

looking for some help here.

I'm doing a trial with fxcm, took the long trade on eur/usd. I'm also tracking the 6Ewith ninjatrader. Can someone explain why ninja's doesnt have the same data at this sessions open. Is it because it's a different contract? I checked ninja settings and it is set for 24hours.

[thalestrader 14]

looking for some help here.

I'm doing a trial with fxcm, took the long trade on eur/usd. I'm also tracking the 6Ewith ninjatrader. Can someone explain why ninja's doesnt have the same data at this sessions open. Is it because it's a different contract? I checked ninja settings and it is set for 24hours.

 

FXCM opens for trading before Globex opens for 6E. The spot was trading for at least an hour before Globex opened.

 

Also, when you track bucket shop to bucket shop you will find that there will be small differences between their data feeds.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Folks,

 

I am having trouble with Ninjatrader. I had some notes and details on the EURUSD chart and before I could snap a shot Ninjacrashed and of course, when I restarted it, all the new notes were gone.

 

I was trying to explain the 6E short in relation to the spot EURUSD and the "3 pushes" that patrader and others have shown throughout the thread. I do not have it in me to re-do the chart. Suffice it to say that I expected a quick drop to the trendline shown here, and when that did not materialize, I quickly put my stop to break even.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Cory2679 11]

Hey Thales,

 

I have some questions, if ya don't mind.

 

She was trading "Super Crazy Rodeo Clown" leverage in the beginning. She started with $25, so even on a microlot trade with an initial risk of 50 ticks she was risking 20%.

 

My question is...why? Why start with that much risk per trade? It's a gamble...you'd better get pretty lucky in the beginning. EDIT: or rather, as jonbig has pointed out below, it's not really that you would need to get lucky, it's that you just couldn't afford to get unlucky.

 

If it were reasonable/sustainable, she'd still be trading with that size! You said yourself a couple posts back that you've had -2R days before. Risking 20% or even 40% (like the recent $25 account you were playing with), nobody will last long.

 

I think for a small daytrading account 1-2% is a good risk parameter, though .5% is probably ideal.

 

She now risks a maximum 2% per trade.

 

Why not just start this way in the beginning?

 

I understand that theoretically if you truly only had $25, then you have no choice, but why not start her with $250 or even $500? That way, you could still be risking the same $$$ amount, but it would be only 1-2% rather than 20%...it's a reasonable and sustainable practice...you could sustain a drawdown.

 

I ask because I was thinking about my own trading...I was thinking if I'd want a chance at replicating her initial results, I'd have to trade with huge risk. So I thought if I wanted to do that, maybe I ought to open a $25 account so if I wiped it out, it wouldn't be a big deal.

 

Then I thought, really what's the point? I should just trade my $250 account with reasonable leverage, instead. Trading a tiny account with huge leverage won't do anything to help me, really. It might be "fun" but I don't see how it'd be any more productive.

 

So of course this lead me to...well, why did Thales start her that way? I was just curious of your thought process with all that.

 

Thanks,

 

Cory

Edited February 1, 2010 by Cory2679

[MidKnight 12]

My question is...why? Why start with that much risk per trade? It's a gamble...you'd better get pretty lucky in the beginning.

 

I asked this and stated the same thing about luck a couple of days back was never replied to. Breaking from my 'demanding' nature I decided to leave it alone, but since you brought it back up...... :helloooo:

 

With kind regards,

MK

[jonbig04 10]

Hey Thales,

 

I have some questions, if ya don't mind.

 

 

 

My question is...why? Why start with that much risk per trade? It's a gamble...you'd better get pretty lucky in the beginning.

 

If it were reasonable/sustainable, she'd still be trading with that size! You said yourself a couple posts back that you've had -2R days before. Risking 20% or even 40% (like the recent $25 account you were playing with), nobody will last long.

 

 

 

 

 

Why not just start this way in the beginning?

 

I understand that theoretically if you truly only had $25, then you have no choice, but why not start her with $250 or even $500? That way, you could still be risking the same $$$ amount, but it would be only 1-2% rather than 20%...it's a reasonable and sustainable practice...you could sustain a drawdown.

 

I ask because I was thinking about my own trading...I was thinking if I'd want a chance at replicating her initial results, I'd have to trade with huge risk. So I thought if I wanted to do that, maybe I ought to open a $25 account so if I wiped it out, it wouldn't be a big deal.

 

Then I thought, really what's the point? I should just trade my $250 account with reasonable leverage, instead. Trading a tiny account with huge leverage won't do anything to help me, really. It might be "fun" but I don't see how it'd be any more productive.

 

So of course this lead me to...well, why did Thales start her that way? I was just curious of your thought process with all that.

 

Thanks,

 

Cory

 

Math has never been my strong point, but it seems like 20% risk is only part of the equation. With decent accuracy and decent R/R you wouldn't need to get lucky, you just couldn't afford to get unlucky. Right?

[Cory2679 11]

...you wouldn't need to get lucky, you just couldn't afford to get unlucky. Right?

 

Precisely...that's what I mean. Very good point...I'm glad you helped in clarification.

[MidKnight 12]

I disagree with that chaps, but that is OK. Trading is a probabilities game and as such the #1 job is managing risk. 'lucky' or 'unlucky' (half empty or half full), however you want to view it, is taken out of the equation if risk is managed with a proven method.

[jonbig04 10]

I disagree with that chaps, but that is OK. Trading is a probabilities game and as such the #1 job is managing risk. 'lucky' or 'unlucky' (half empty or half full), however you want to view it, is taken out of the equation if risk is managed with a proven method.

 

Hmm I have to disagree. After all, even with a 90% win rate and R/R of 1:5 you could still go broke. It's possible, just not very likely.

 

I do agree that managing risk is our highest priority. But I think there is a difference between risk management and being just plain fearful, and the difference may be difficult to discern. But being fearful is just as damaging as being greedy, only in a longer, slower, more drawn out sort of way.

 

I think that there are all kinds of ways we prepare for trading. Reading books, coming up with a system and trading it SIM, screentime and on and on. But we can never fully eliminate the possibility of, well, disaster can we? In trading or in anything in life.

 

The need for preparation is obvious and well documented here at TL, but equally important is the ability to execute without hesitation, without fear. At some point we have to go into this market and TAKE what we've earned because no one is going to give it to us. An edge seems to me to be pretty useless without the aggressive application of it at some point.

 

Without that you won't lose everything in a week, but you might gain nothing after years and years. I guess it's debatable which is worse.

 

Just my 2 cents/late night rambling though :missy:

[patrader 10]

15m 6E chart

[DugDug 10]

Not 100% convinced this is a great trade, but setup looks right.

[DugDug 10]

chop chop - out...

Now I have actually reversed.....always potentially dangerous, but I try and minimise this by a simple method....

If say the trend is down, and I short with it I will sell more than if I take a smaller counter trend trade..... I also dont often (but sometimes) pyramid into a counter trend trade.

Always have to be nimble here, and prepared to cut and reverse again quickly......Not something I try to do as I dont necessarily like the focus, however i do find its good to do occasionally as I find it reinforces flexibility in being prepared to go with the flow of the market. Is this a good thing?

 

(This is a good exercise....though I wonder if I should just paper trade while rethinking things)

 

EDIT update: cut long for loss 1pt....it should have accelerated up for me.

Side note when I reverse trades...... as a reversal it should immediately go for you. If not rethink and wait as its unlikely to be a day of conviction either way until later. Its all about constant probing.

Edited February 1, 2010 by DugDug

[Mr_black 10]

Possible short on 6e

[Mr_black 10]

Possible short on 6e

No fill yet

[thalestrader 14]

... it's that you just couldn't afford to get unlucky.

 

Or can I?

 

Look at it this way: If you had, say, $10,000,000 in cash in various accounts, and if you knew that over time 90%+ of your trades were either a 1R profit or breakeven, and that of the 10% losses the average was .23R, do you think you could start a 5K trading account, trade it at an insanely higher risk level than would typically be recommended to avoid ruin, and be able to afford to lose it all? Sure. Because you are unlikely to lose it all to begin with, and if you do, you open your wallet, and another 5K falls out for you to replenish the account.

 

Now, could I afford to have my daughter or myself blow out a $25 account? Well, I do not have anything close to 10,000,000, but I did buy more that $25 worth of Girl Scout cookies yesterday. If I can blow $25 on cookies, I can blow $25 in a bucket shop. And I can probably afford to do it over and over again.

 

The only thing I did wrong was that I abandoned the way I trade last week, Had I traded that little micro account as I usually would trade, the balance would be higher than it had started rather than lower.

 

Its funny that this conversation comes up with the arrival of ST from ET. He showed up last year at ET claiming to use a money management approach to day trading the ES that enabled him to double his money every few days. My currency trading friend directed me to his thread, and I was ready to watch not because I did not believe him, but because I did believe him, I know it can be done. Unfortunately, it was ET, and so the trolls were all over him before he could even get started, and in his case it looks as though the trolls where right he was nothing but a fraud, and possibly a drunken one, as he posted but one or two trades and spent the rest of his time spewing insults at the trolls.

 

At any rate, someone learning to trade a small account with limited resources ought to adhere to sound money management principles.

 

Once you know what you are doing and what to expect from your trading, you can, as my currency trading friend says, "afford to have a little fun." He, for example, as a microlot account that he calls his "Sandbox." He plays in it, He routinely runs it from $250 to $8-10K and then blows it up and adds another $250. So what? His serious trades are done in his futures account, and he averages a solid 200+ticks/week profit, and he is trading decent size. He has a right play in a Sandbox if he wishes, and so do I. In the end, it comes down to a matter of responsibility: Would I trade my last $5000 in a Sandbox? No way! But, if I want to "have a little fun," that's what I'm going to do.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Closest thing I see to an opportunity at the moment is a short on the EURGBP, but while I'd be interest in trading this pair for swing trade, I do not trade it for small moves. But, it looks to be presenting to us that it is considering a pause in the show it has put on since striking its low last week.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Current look at the ES ... I have no position - the trade lines (blue/red/green) where placed last night before I shut down, but I did not actually place the buy stop, and I am just taking notes ES is at a level at which I am looking for sell indications, That doesn't mean we get them, but I am looking for them.

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

ES is at a level at which I am looking for sell indications

 

Something like that ...

 

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Mr_black 10]

No fill yet

I will cancel the sell stop

[DugDug 10]

How do you show the picture in the message... not just as a thumbnail that someone needs to click on?

[thalestrader 14]

How do you show the picture in the message... not just as a thumbnail that someone needs to click on?

 

Here you go:

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f30/how-post-chart-properly-805.html

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[forrestang 10]

How do you show the picture in the message... not just as a thumbnail that someone needs to click on?

 

Get the url of your desired picture.

 

I do this via uploading the picture

 

After that click the links like below, and copy the url, then past into the the thing shown in the first pic after clicking that button.

 

----Edit----

looks like Thales beat me to it.

[thalestrader 14]

Something like that ...

 

But, when followed by something like this, it usually means I am too early, and I should close the position as close to BE as I can wait for further indication.

 

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales