Reading Charts in Real Time

[MidKnight 12]

Also, the first entry was far to premature for the expectations I set for the trade. I knew as much to expect at least one new low.

 

The second entry was too late to initiate the position (or at least not as favorable a position as I would have liked. The ideal buy point, had I been following properly, would have been a buy stop 125.35 or 125.65. Had I been paying attention, rather than slacking off sleeping, I would have liked to have bought at 125.35, added at 125.65, and raised the stop to 125.80 on the break above 126.25.

 

So, the results so far have more, in fact, everything to do with poor execution of plan on my part than on the plan itself.

 

For what its worth, my daughter told me to do just as you said I should do on the first trade - stop and reverse. But, I guess it just didn't matter enough to me. Perhaps I shall have to take this more seriously, and only initiate positions when I can do so as I would do in an account that mattered to me. In other words, I guess I should trade it as though my equity depends upon it, and not as though its just a $25 chip I found on the casino floor for a free drop in the slots.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Hi Thales,

 

While I can see why you are saying what you are about trades 1 & 2 of the OIRC experiment, I also know you have taken trades that look just like that (as per what is shown on the 15m chart, not including other contexts) before and they have worked. Had those trades worked out instead you might be using words like, the first entry might have been premature because it looked incomplete but I still felt the odds were good for a sizable pop. I was just chatting with some trader friends about systems vs discretionary trading last night. Systems take away a lot of the responsibility one feels for having a losing trade. It's almost an attitude of it wasn't my fault it was a loser, the system did it. But with discretionary trading every trade can be 'fixed' in postmortem analysis whether it be the entry, exits, management etc. It's the complete acceptance of the results that I think make discretionary trading so hard. I'm not saying you don't accept them, your post just reminded me of this conversation, maybe I've taken things slightly off track....

 

Back on track then....you know what I'm saying here, I am sure. The leverage you are using one needs to get very lucky immediately because there just isn't any leeway for negative outcomes that are part of the probabilities. I wonder why you want to use the leverage this high?

 

FX trading is tough because of its 24 hour nature. In my review I see a lot of very obvious trades but.....maybe not so many during the hours I am available. In the past I have tried living around this by setting alarms on the computer at key areas and basically sleeping whenever I can. Like Brownie commented the other day, this will burn you out. The idea looked good on paper to me, but in practicality, it nearly killed me The set and forget type approach can work, I think, but maybe it is harder with a tight style of play that doesn't allow for probes - what do you think?

 

With kind regards,

MK

Edited January 29, 2010 by MidKnight

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Folks,

 

This thread is called Reading Charts in Real Time. When I started the thread, here is how I conceived of its purpose:

 

I thought it would be interesting if we had a thread where we could all post charts of potential price moves in real time. These do not have to be actual trades you are taking. The purpose would be for us to learn from one another how to recognize these opportunities in real time. Therefore, when you post a chart, be sure to clearly state the direction in which you anticipate price to move, and the reason you are interpreting price action in that manner. This is not a thread for secrets, show-offs, or salespeople selling systems.

 

That's it - let us learn from one another how to recognize opportunities in real time. Why? Well, that is how you make book in this business - reading price at the hard right edge of the chart, so to speak.

 

Furthermore, these charts can represent actual trades, demo trades, or just plain old passing time watching the market go by ... so long as they are posted before, at, or very soon after the moment of decision. I do not care who is trading what, who is on demo, who is trading 2M BP for a hedge fund, or who is whacking out a few hundred a day on a 5K trading account, and who is posting from within the walls of the State Mental Hospital. And neither should any of you. The purpose is to learn. That is all. Again, from the very first post of this thread:

 

 

This is not a thread for secrets, show-offs, or salespeople selling systems.

 

I have kept nothing in secret. I do not believe I have done anything that could be called "showing off," and I have not, do not, and will not sell anything to anyone. I have been running this thread since June. I have not once done anything to direct anyone off the TL site. When folks have PM's me, I PM them back asking them to repeat their question in the thread. I have not taken advantage of anyone. Kiwi said recently in another thread that the reason the vendors leave so quickly from TL is because they cannot stay too long before they run out of stuff they can give away for free. Well, if I have ulterior motives, I must be the dumbest flippin' snakeoil salesman the trading world has ever seen as I have given away everything and I have nothing left to sell!

 

I have posted hundreds, and I mean hundreds of charts in this thread clearly showing entry, stop loss, and profit target before the moment of truth. I have posted hundreds more charts within ticks and moments of entry having been made. I have posted other charts, in hindsight, with the intention of making points or answering questions. If you do not believe I have done so, then you have not been reading this thread in real time.

 

I cannot help how others feel. Their issues are their own. But let me tell you this - I would bet you dollars to donuts that most of the people who find fault with our thread, and who would argue that the trades are not real, are themselves net losers. I say this because I maybe would have felt the same way back when I was not having such a good time with the markets as they themselves do today when they see these posts.

 

Another PM I received questioned why my trades do not show up when I post my Ninjatrader charts. For what its worth, I do not trade off of Ninjatrader. I use IB's TWS bracket trader and I use Transact's YesTrader. The fund I trade for has me on a version of Genesis Laser. I trade off the DOM associated with the platform I am trading on at the time. The only thing I use Ninjatrader for is charting and demo trading. My black and white charts are of markets I trade or at least follow. If you see colors on one of my charts, then I am probably demo trading that market or following it out of a temporary interest. I try to very clear whether or not I am taking a trade.

 

And I have certainly posted my share of losers in plenty of time for you to play along and lose right beside me. There is no way to screen my trades ahead of time. If there were, I would stop posting the losing trades and only post the winners.

 

This thread had an almost a perfect rating going into this afternoon. It is now down to a 4.62, no doubt because of a recent visitor who feels himself qualified to rate a thread he has not taken the time to follow. Well, that is too bad, because this thread is not for him and those like him, and that rating can help new visitors determine what may be worth a look from what is not worth a dime.

 

If you haven't rated this thread, now would be a good time for you to do so - Give it a 1 or give it a 5, but be honest with your rating, and rate it only if you feel you have followed it enough to do it justice. If this is your first time, or if you have just been passing through, then be fair to us and yourself, and skip rating it until you feel you know it well enough to do so.

 

If you do not believe what you see and read in this thread, that is fine. That just means that this thread is not for you. There is a thread out there for you, I promise you. So don't waste your time polluting ours. Get on with your search. I hope you find what it is you are looking for.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Edited January 30, 2010 by thalestrader
typo

[MidKnight 12]

When folks have PM's me, I PM them back asking them to repeat their question in the thread.

 

I never received replies from any of my PM's :hmmmm: :hmpf:

 

while true I do not mind, just trying to crack a grin

[thalestrader 14]

While I can see why you are saying what you are about trades 1 & 2 of the OIRC experiment, I also know you have taken trades that look just like that (as per what is shown on the 15m chart

 

If I were trading these as I usually trade, I would have made money on both.

 

Had those trades worked out instead you might be using words like, the first entry might have been premature because it looked incomplete but I still felt the odds were good for a sizable pop.

 

To be honest with you, I thought the odds were good for what did happen to happen, as Livy often says of Caesar, "Fearing that what did happen would happen ..." The difference between Caesar and I is that Caesar acted upon what he feared would happen, and took measures to guard against it, whereas I disregarded it, and walked straight into it. I got what I deserved.

 

I was just chatting with some trader friends about systems vs discretionary trading last night. Systems take away a lot of the responsibility one feels for having a losing trade. It's almost an attitude of it wasn't my fault it was a loser, the system did it. But with discretionary trading every trade can be 'fixed' in postmortem analysis whether it be the entry, exits, management etc. It's the complete acceptance of the results that I think make discretionary trading so hard. I'm not saying you don't accept them, your post just reminded me of this conversation, maybe I've taken things slightly off track....

 

Most of the time, I can honestly say, "win or lose, this is an excellent trade." Meaning that price may ultimately prove to have hoodwinked me, but based upon what it is doing, I have to act, and the course of action is clear. In fact, I have posted that exact phrase more than once here at TL - win or lose, and excellent trade. In this case, that first trade was, based upon what I wanted to get out of it, a dumb trade. And if you read my post at the time, you will probably gather that I thought as much.

 

The set and forget type approach can work, I think, but maybe it is harder with a tight style of play that doesn't allow for probes - what do you think?

 

It absolutely works. But I must match patience and judgement of like degree to selecting the trades. Thus far I have used a day trader's degree of judgement and patience and tried to turn daytrade's into swing trades. That will not work.

 

I never received replies from any of my PM's

 

I guess yours just slipped by me. Sorry about that, MidK.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[forrestang 10]

I never received replies from any of my PM's

I guess yours just slipped by me. Sorry about that, MidK.

 

Since we're logging complaint's to the 'Real-Time Customer Service' Department...... I never got a response to this one question here:

 

 

Summary of the dialogue:

I am more concerned with those cases where, as you put it, I am "nic'd" into a trade. In this case, price did what you had hoped - it rallied through your buy point. Now you have to allow it do breath and pullback to test the buy point if it so desires. Do you see the difference? A trade that tick's you in and goes no where is much different behavior from a trade that carries beyond your entry and then comes back to test the entry.

 

Yes, I see the distinction. On the trades that initially do what I want, and do not quite reach my BE trigger, how much room should I give them beyond retesting my entry price? Is it a matter of something occurring like two consecutive LHs(for a buy case) beyond my entry and then exit? I was just throwing that idea out there.

 

 

It was this post HERE.

[thalestrader 14]

Here is a chart I posted here earlier in the month (around the 8th of January, showing two little trend lines that I was looking for the DXYO to clear).

 

 

Here is a series of charts showing the US Dollar Index over the last few weeks. Each of these charts was posted here in this thread. Today the dollar rallied right to the resistance level noted in the chart posted here on January 21, 2010. I know that probably still qualifies as "hindsight" for this afternoon's cranky visitor, but that's his problem, not mine. He can search the thread if he wants to check time/date stamps on the posts.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Of course, I really did muck up this "call," (though it was hardly meant as a call), as you can see by this post from 1/21/2010:

 

Current look at the daily US Dollar index - looks as though the Buck needs a day or two of rest before making a real go at that upper trendline.

 

Well, it took a day or two more than a week to get there, but get there it did. But again, from the tone our visitor brought here this afternoon and the low rating he saw fit to grant this thread, this is all still hindsight. In my opinion, I was wrong only in that the DXYO took a bit longer to exhibit the strength that I thought the chart was showing was immanent.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

On the trades that initially do what I want, and do not quite reach my BE trigger, how much room should I give them beyond retesting my entry price? Is it a matter of something occurring like two consecutive LHs(for a buy case) beyond my entry and then exit? I was just throwing that idea out there.

 

It is not a matter of extent, so much as how is price acting as it tests entry. I do not know that I can translate it into a mechanical rule, but certainly if price trades through my entry making a favorable move, then retraces back to my entry, and then makes a lower low or "double tops," I'd probably slip my stop to BE or there abouts.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Now this one is for those folks who know Ninjatrader so well that they do not know it at all.

 

I have made no secret that I have played with a bit of demo trading on crude this week. I've made no claims that I am trading crude in either of my trading accounts. I also said I was using Ninjatrader to demo trade it, rather than my IB or my TA demo accounts. But how could this be? When I post my crude charts, there are no executions, and yet I claim to be demo trading crude.

 

Well, for the idiot who thought he had "got me," here is a little Ninjatrader lesson for you.

 

When you have chart trader open, you can right click on chart properties, and lo and behold - you can choose either to have your trade executions plotted or not plotted.

 

See charts below (and note the pretty colors - colors mean I am not trading that market):

 

Ninjatrader: Trade executions not plotted

 

 

Ninjatrader: Trade executions plotted (you will see two trades, i.e. demo trades, plotted on the left hand side of the chart).

 

 

Yet another free contribution from me to you.

 

Now, why not spend your time studying how to trade? If this thread is not for you, then move on. It is not required reading.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[brownsfan019 17]

I pop into this thread now and again as some of you know. I'd like to comment to the negative trolls that love to show up every so often around here:

 

If you don't like this method, Thales, any other poster(s) or any combination of those, then SIMPLY DO NOT VISIT THIS THREAD.

All I know is that Thales has developed one of (if not the most) visited thread here on TL, spends hours upon hours providing guidance and he does it for FREE. I can only guess how many people he has helped.

[Kiwi 16]

Where is a moderator when you need one.

 

Now we not only have every reject semi-guru from ET and T2W, we have twats like this one.

 

James, until someone removes his posts from this thread, removes his ratings and preferably removes the twat altogether I am gone from TL. Its bad enough that you let spidy and rumplestiltskin post their twaddle but twats like this are the last straw.

 

Bye for now.

[thalestrader 14]

Here is one of the so-called "hindsight trades" mentioned in a PM to me tonight. Now, stay with me on this one:

 

Target 10000

 

Mr Black posted that at 1:35 EST. His chart shows an entry at 10012 if I am reading it correctly, and at the time he snapped his pic, price was 5 ticks lower, at 10007.

 

Now here is a 1 minute YM:

 

 

As you can see, after Mr. Black posted his trade, price retraced, making a MAE of -10 before then making an orderly progression to his profit target 112 ticks away.

 

It sure looks like a real time chart, real time trade to me. Now, was it live money or demo? I don't know. I believe that Mr. Black is the real deal. But, does it matter? If he was paper trading or demo trading this, does it take away in anyway from the timeliness of his call? Absolutely not!

 

The difference between Mr. Black and those who find fault with this thread is simple: Mr. Black (and all the fine folks who share their charts here in real time) has the stones to put himself out there and say "Here is what I think price is going to do next and I don't care a ounce what you all think of me if I'm wrong."

 

Those who find fault with this thread and who suggest this is all hindsight are likely phonies and frauds. Why would I say this? Because if you lack the courage to make a public call in real time but you do have the gall to chide those who do, I doubt you have courage enough to pull the trigger on a trade.

 

Now, I do not mean that if you do not post in real time you're a coward. Far from it ... this isn't for everyone. And each of us if free to post or not, read or not, etc. But don't come here with your BS and accusations if you don't first have the stones to pony up and play.

 

So for the doubters, go back and look at the charts posted in this thread, look at the time stamps on the posts, and then when you're ready to share a real time call, you know where to find us.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Edited January 30, 2010 by thalestrader

[sevensa 10]

Where is a moderator when you need one.

 

Now we not only have every reject semi-guru from ET and T2W, we have twats like this one.

 

James, until someone removes his posts from this thread, removes his ratings and preferably removes the twat altogether I am gone from TL. Its bad enough that you let spidy and rumplestiltskin post their twaddle but twats like this are the last straw.

 

Bye for now.

 

I hope you'd reconsider. If we just ignore the idiots and trolls, they will get bored and leave. If we leave instead then this will just be another ET where the trolls rule that is good for no one.

[thalestrader 14]

Where is a moderator when you need one.

 

The problem is that the guy who moderates this forum has not been to TL since 12-21-2009, and has a grand total of 89 posts. We need a moderator who has a bit more skin in the game.

 

And Kiwi, stick around, friend. We need to stand up and push back, not turn our backs and walk away when these idiot trolls decide its time to flex their ego by launching anaonymous internet attacks.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[sevensa 10]

Hi Thales

 

You are spending a lot time here this evening to prove to the doubters that what is happening here is the real deal. The people that matters (by that I mean people willing to learn, understand what trading is about, know that they are responsible for their own actions, respect other people), already know that. For the people that doesn't, this is pointless trying to explain anything to them as they are normally just unhappy about being failures and looking for excuses why what they are attempting can't be done and in their mind anyone who show otherwise, must be a fraud. They will never believe you regardless. This is just not worth spending your time and effort on them. Just ignore them as talking to them will not get you anywhere.

 

The people who matters already understand what this thread is about and appreciate it for that. The opinions of the rest just don't matter and don't deserve any time from you to justify anything. In a way, you have to feel a little sorry for those people. The highlight of their day is to post jibberish on an online forum, but in the end of the day when they go to bed, they are still the same miserable losers who hate their life and they know that.

[Cory2679 11]

Hi Thales

 

You are spending a lot time here this evening to prove to the doubters that what is happening here is the real deal. The people that matters (by that I mean people willing to learn, understand what trading is about, know that they are responsible for their own actions, respect other people), already know that. For the people that doesn't, this is pointless trying to explain anything to them as they are normally just unhappy about being failures and looking for excuses why what they are attempting can't be done and in their mind anyone who show otherwise, must be a fraud. They will never believe you regardless. This is just not worth spending your time and effort on them. Just ignore them as talking to them will not get you anywhere.

 

The people who matters already understand what this thread is about and appreciate it for that. The opinions of the rest just don't matter and don't deserve any time from you to justify anything. In a way, you have to feel a little sorry for those people. The highlight of their day is to post jibberish on an online forum, but in the end of the day when they go to bed, they are still the same miserable losers who hate their life and they know that.

 

Hear, hear!

[brownsfan019 17]

If you guys ask James, I'll be happy to mod this area and come in to clean up this trash when needed. Just have to get James' attention to the matter. I currently can only mod threads that are in the traders log sub-forum.

[thalestrader 14]

If you guys ask James, I'll be happy to mod this area and come in to clean up this trash when needed. Just have to get James' attention to the matter. I currently can only mod threads that are in the traders log sub-forum.

 

I sent James a PM earlier today asking him do just that and give you Mod rights on the thread.

 

I hope he does - then this stuff could be taken care of immediately.

 

Thanks Brownie,

 

Thales

[forrestang 10]

I guess I am further messing with the thread here(and this post too can be deleted when this thread is cleaned up), but I think the problems initially had with Mr. Black's posts where this series I am showing below, not the most recent set:

 

Here, I don't know if one was just trying to show an example, or pass it off as a real time, right edge read?

 

Then there was this one here, again, I don't know if it was just showing an example, asking a question, or passing it off as a real time, right edge?

 

Then there was this trade, which was a legitimate REAL TIME CALL, keeping with the spirit of most of the thread.

 

But then it was followed up with a reversal entry that was posted a waaaaays after the initial entry would have triggered, showing the ninja entry.

 

So a trade was taken(SIM or Real it doesn't matter), but why post it so much later? To wait to see if it pans out? I don't know? But the point is, why not just do like Thales suggests, and post the entry before, right after it happens? Just somewhere near the time so that you can manage your trade.

 

When a post like this is made, it's almost like "FILTERING" ones trade selection in an effort to present only the profitable choices. I am just saying this in general, just do like Thales mentions, and post the trade near the time it happens.

 

EVERY single other thread in this forum is a hindsight thread, and could easily accommodate any hindsight trades. There is even a 'HINDSIGHT' thread out there now. This is the ONLY one that I know of that focuses on the 'right edge.'

 

SIM, Real, just mental trading, doesn't matter what one enters the trade with. Blotters or ninja triangles aren't needed to prove a trade. But IMO, just keep it with the theme and post a real time right edge read, and don't be afraid of loosing, we all have losers, but the thread is supposed to help us with our right edge reads.

[MidKnight 12]

I agree with forrest on the above sequence. I actually posted comment about it, but noted later that he did finally get around to sticking with the theme of the thread so deleted the comment. I have no idea why he would have posted that hindsight stuff in the real-time thread. There are a couple of others that do it semi-regular here too IMO. 99.9% of the content is keeping with the spirit of the thread though.

[snowbird 10]

Hi Thales

 

You are spending a lot time here this evening to prove to the doubters that what is happening here is the real deal.......

 

The people who matters already understand what this thread is about and appreciate it for that.

 

Just had to mention that you can count me as one for whom this thread "really matters".

 

I have gained more from this thread (for free and real time!) than I have ever learned from all of the courses, systems, "market secrets" and so called "gurus" out there that I shilled out real hard earned money for.

 

I know there are many more reading nightly just like me. Keep up the good work Thales.

 

Shun (ignore) the non-believers!

 

snowbird

[Marko23 10]

Posting Live Trades in Real Time

 

As I look back over this week I find this a rather strong demand. Especially when one has to switch to a smaller timescale to document why an early entry was possible. Otherwise the entry may look as pure guess.

 

Every post will behind the fact -- the market just moves on.

 

Perhaps we define the number of bars we want to tolerate after a signal showed up and if it is neccessary to publish an upcoming signal.

 

Personally I feel a special disadvantage from posting: often it gets me out of "the flow". Publishing takes some time and is a disruption of trading; one has to sync with the market afterwards.

 

How do you care about switching back and forth between TL and your charts?

[fxThunder 10]

Posting Live Trades in Real Time

 

As I look back over this week I find this a rather strong demand. Especially when one has to switch to a smaller timescale to document why an early entry was possible. Otherwise the entry may look as pure guess.

 

Every post will behind the fact -- the market just moves on.

 

Perhaps we define the number of bars we want to tolerate after a signal showed up and if it is neccessary to publish an upcoming signal.

 

Personally I feel a special disadvantage from posting: often it gets me out of "the flow". Publishing takes some time and is a disruption of trading; one has to sync with the market afterwards.

 

How do you care about switching back and forth between TL and your charts?

 

Marko,

 

I have very similar experiences. I will take the snap at entry, but the admin required to post the actual entry means that it is at least a couple of minutes before the comment and pic makes it to the thread. Nevertheless I believe the value is not in calling 100% realtime trades as for this we could just open a trading room and add even more distractions. For me the value is in showing what I see as an opportunity and the comments on that rather than trying to show how good my read is.

 

I think you don't even need to try and post 100% real time - that would keep you from posting altogether, potentially, and that would be a real shame.

 

Cheers,

eNQ

[Mr_black 10]

forrestang the reason for posting the small EUR/USD chart was to show the current trend , price was making LH, LL for past 4 day's You asked me a ? how to use 123 setup and here is the answer take 123's only with trend direction....by the way there was another live call on 6e I made yesterday and it was 123 short hahaha:cool:sorry for my broken English

[Mr_black 10]

And here is the explanation for the YM sample you post .... The call was for short sell yes......but the price made HL and HH ....(Up Trend) so I enter on Pullback (long) for 30 some ym points profit:cool:

[Marko23 10]

...

I have very similar experiences. I will take the snap at entry, but the admin required to post the actual entry means that it is at least a couple of minutes before the comment and pic makes it to the thread...

 

I think you don't even need to try and post 100% real time ...

 

Good to know I'm not the only one.

 

The "100% rt" demand originates from the title of the thread and the many non-believers here; they should give it a try because it can be done.

 

Re: the trolls. They go into my Ignore List on the spot. I'll never answer to any of them.