Reading Charts in Real Time

[TradeRunner 10]

2 trades: BE

 

Good to come away today without losing any ticks but obviously it would have been better to win some. Trades that I took didn't go anywhere and the ones that I skipped or didn't see moved with ease.

[daedalus 10]

should've waited for the FOMC announcement to start trading... there was nada prior to it for me and things got lively afterwards when I was off watching Leon the Professional.

[thalestrader 14]

My girls had early dismissal from school today, so I bagged the day when they came home and we went out to race their r/c cars.

 

Here is the only thing I marked up - the 15 minute EURJPY. I didn't trade it. My daughter didn't trade it. But I looked at my charts now, and it would have been a good one. (I know the dates say 1/26, but that it just because I entered the wrong date when naming the files - theiy're from today as you can see).

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Do you usually monitor a trade after your entry in this fashion and get ready to exit a long(for example) when you get a LL....... Do you continue to monitor for this type of activity UNTIL you get your stop to BE?

 

If I am here I'm watching the trade. Most of the trads you see me post here I watch closely and manage actively. The exception are those trades which take place during the Frankfurt/London morning hours when I sleep. But those are usually trades taken off of larger degree opportunities, and I am not as quick to move those to break even.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[MidKnight 12]

Hi Thales,

 

I was wondering if you are still considering doing that 'set and forget' experiment? Even if you did it with a demo account it would probably still give worthwhile information both to you and to anyone you chose to share with (hopefully this thread)

 

With kind regards,

MK

[thalestrader 14]

2 trades: BE

 

Good to come away today without losing any ticks but obviously it would have been better to win some. Trades that I took didn't go anywhere and the ones that I skipped or didn't see moved with ease.

 

Agreed. It is an accomplishment on a day like to today to come away with no real wounds.

 

I like your second short. I know it was a break even for you, but I think it was a good opportunity and worth a shot. This approach does not assure no losses, but it does assure you that your wins should be a bit more frequent than your losses, and you should lose small relative to your wins. A break even result is a small loss indeed.

 

I do not like the first short at all. In fact, I'm wondering if you may have a bit of a short bias today, as you took a short at a low. Not only that, but since you were managing an ill-timed short, you missed (or chose to ignore) a long opportunity that was at least as obvious as your second short. That long should have given a nice profit. Now, don't get me wrong, I love shorting new lows. But I do it either when I already have a short line and I am adding to it, or else I will get away with a new short at new lows when the new low is breaking a long term support that has been recently tested - I short the retest.

 

Did you see the long, and ignore it, or did you just not see it? I'm just curious, but the answer may help you as you continue.

 

For what it's worth, I took a real clunker of a trade yesterday on the ES. No harm done as I cut it loose for just a few ticks loss, but the point is no matter how long we do this, mistakes happen. I hope you don't take my criticism too much to heart. I think you are doing a great job, and the fact that you have both stuck with it for this long and you have improved so greatly sets a good example for other folks.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Current look at the ES ... seel stop is 1995.75 ...

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[patrader 10]

15m 6E chart

Edited January 28, 2010 by patrader

[thalestrader 14]

Current look at the ES ... seel stop is 1995.75 ...

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Took -3 ticks, and looks like this now unless we get a new high.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[patrader 10]

240m 6E chart(converging?)

[forrestang 10]

Took -3 ticks, and looks like this now unless we get a new high.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

That was a good exit to get out at -3 tics. What was it that helped you get that quickly? I saw that price barely stopped you in before immediately reversing.

 

Did you see a H-L-HH form on this one?

[thalestrader 14]

That was a good exit to get out at -3 tics. What was it that helped you get that quickly? I saw that price barely stopped you in before immediately reversing.

 

Did you see a H-L-HH form on this one?

 

No, not really. It just went dead and sat there for a minute or two with me at -2, so I moved my stop to -3. Why take chances in a dead market?

 

At any rate, we did get new high, so I would prefer to wait until we made a go into the resistance zone seen here.

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[patrader 10]

15m 6E chart

[patrader 10]

240m 6E chart

[forrestang 10]

No, not really. It just went dead and sat there for a minute or two with me at -2, so I moved my stop to -3. Why take chances in a dead market?

 

At any rate, we did get new high, so I would prefer to wait until we made a go into the resistance zone seen here.

Do you think that if this exact scenario had played out in RTH(if price wasn't just sitting still) that maybe it would have rolled on you a bit further before you got out while waiting for a HH in price movement to print?

[patrader 10]

15m 6E chart

[TradeRunner 10]

In fact, I'm wondering if you may have a bit of a short bias today......

Did you see the long, and ignore it, or did you just not see it?

 

Hi Thales

 

Yes I did have a short bias (see picture). I think I was clinging to that bias and skipped the long you are talking about.

 

The short I have marked up I didn't see because I wasn't concentrating enough at the time enough though it was at a resistance line. It eventually went down to what would have been my target 140.00 although I'm not sure I would of held it into the news.

 

So I think there are some things to work on here.

 

Thanks for the comments.

 

TradeRunner

[Marko23 10]

EUR/USD Long in 15m timescale and opportunity in 60m timescale

 

 

Edited January 28, 2010 by Marko23
Typo

[patrader 10]

15m 6E chart

[patrader 10]

15m 6E chart

[Marko23 10]

Long 15m at target

Long 60m at break even

 

[forrestang 10]

15m 6E chart

 

Can you explain more about your chosen S/R levels please? It seems like you may be basing things on a swing point or a place where price was rejected? Not necessarily based on the out edges of value ranges, or heavy volume regions. Is this correct?

[thalestrader 14]

Can you explain more about your chosen S/R levels please? It seems like you may be basing things on a swing point or a place where price was rejected? Not necessarily based on the out edges of value ranges, or heavy volume regions. Is this correct?

 

I do not mean to answer for patrader, but, I am assuming the "pa" stands for "price action" trader, though perhaps it means something else, e.g. Pennsylvania trader, etc. I know some would argue otherwise, but what does a "value range" have to do with S/R? What makes a stopping point made on diminishing volume any less relevant than one accompanied by a volume spike. People can go on about supply and demand and value, but in the end the only thing you need to consider is where did price stop when it was going up, and where did the decline stop on the way down.

 

At any rate, we did get new high, so I would prefer to wait until we made a go into the resistance zone seen here.

 

Here is the ES chart with the resistance zone in red that I posted last night, and a new pic showing what has transpired since. I used no notion of a "value range" in determining where resistance would likely be found. I do not not even know, quite frankly, what is meant byy the phrase "value range." And I have not looked at volume in many years as consideration on any time frame less than a daily bar chart. You only need to look at where price has been, and where has it been stopped.

 

 

 

 

Pa trader has a very simple, yet I think incredibly clever approach to using these stopping points to trade. I may be wrong, but I would be surprised if volume or "value range" are considered at all. I see so many folks posting all these arcane and (in my opinion) misguided attempts to use anything to tell them how to make money in the markets except the one thing that will actually let them do so easily - PRICE itself!

 

Look at that chart of the ES. Anyone who saw that chart when I first posted could have used to make money. Now, in this case, the decline has not been of great extent, and for all we know, it may be over. But, if you sold price in the upper half of that range, you could close your position for a decent profit right now. Now, go look at most of the charts posted here at TL over the last 24 hours. How many of them could have made you any money? How many were posted a head of time so you know that the poster actually saw the opportunity before him or her? Outside of this thread, you will not find many, if any at all.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[DugDug 10]

Just wanted to say Thanks Thalestrader.....

I just had for some reason an epiphany for some classic errors I found my self falling into and could not see the forest for the trees (plus after reading the rumpled ones ideas of flipping a coin and running it or cutting it --- )

You are 100% correct and it was something I forgot - by looking at a zone, the overall picture, the general "vibe" of the price action AND NOT exact levels, you get a clearer picture.

 

By looking at exact numbers, by trying to make the chart fit what you think it should do exactly, then it can f... with the mind. Something I have recently found myself falling into.

 

Amazing how simple it can be.

thankyou.

[Marko23 10]

...By looking at exact numbers, by trying to make the chart fit what you think it should do exactly, then it can f... with the mind.

...

 

Then one makes the market fit one's mind; and we all know, it has to be the other way.