Reading Charts in Real Time

[Marko23 10]

EUR/USD below Friday's support

 

B/E

 

Out with +10, takes too long for me.

Edited January 26, 2010 by Marko23

[thalestrader 14]

time to be short the 6B - targets 1.6059 and 1.5932 below...

 

And as much as I would like for price t decline to my targets, it has obliged me with a lower low, and that is all that it needed to do to complete the decline, if the decline is indeed complete. I'm still holding short for 1.6056, though that rocket launch off the 1.6088 low sure gave me a headache from how violently I raised my eyebrows and how wide I stretched open my eyes!

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Beachtrader 10]

that rocket launch off the 1.6088 low sure gave me a headache from how violently I raised my eyebrows and how wide I stretched open my eyes!

 

Sadly that rocket launch was enough to take me out of this one. Cable certainly looks a bit jumpy this afternoon!

[thalestrader 14]

I would have never have thought to enter a trade based on a H-L-LH of only 2 bars but this is someting to think about.

I remember seeing this area last night and I went down to the 5min to see if there is a valid sequence but there were none.

 

Thanks for the charts and explanations.

 

Gabe

 

You are still looking at price in terms of bars. What is more damaging to you is that you seem to be looking at bars in such a way as to let time trump price movement. Remember, a bar has an open, a close, a high, and a low. One of the nice things about candlesticks is they often, though not always, let you see the order of things (which came first, the high or the low). But you need to think of price as a moving and living thing, and not as hash marks on a graph.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Sadly that rocket launch was enough to take me out of this one. Cable certainly looks a bit jumpy this afternoon!

 

I took the loss. Lots of volatility coming into the market - which is a good thing. I mentioned in an earlier post that wider stops and less chance to go to break even will likely beccome the order of the day for me if this continues.

 

In the meanwhile, thanks to Brownie, I have taken up sim trading crude oil to keep me occupied while waiting for the next opportunity.

 

Here is my current long - this is a Ninja demo account trade and not a real money trade.

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

In the meanwhile, thanks to Brownie, I have taken up sim trading crude oil to keep me occupied while waiting for the next opportunity.

 

Here is my current long - this is a Ninja demo account trade and not a real money trade.

 

I mentioned here a few weeks ago that I had forgotten what a well behaved market crude is. I can see why Brownie has, for the time being, taken to trading crude only. This was an easy 50 cents, which would be $500/contract (I'm sure its not always so easy).

 

For anyone wondering, the hashed lines are prior day high/low.

 

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

New View of the 6B ...

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Update of the EURGBP short ... I meant to post this early in the morning but I forgot to do so after answering a few questions first. Price made it to within pips of PT2 and reversed for a break even stop on the 2nd half.

 

After that rally, price has pulled back in what may be an ABC correction, so I would not be looking for a long indication per the longer term charts I posted of this pair last week,

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Edited January 26, 2010 by thalestrader
typo

[patrader 10]

15m 6E chart

[jonbig04 10]

15m 6E chart

 

Out of curiosity, is there a reason the light blue line is slightly above where the DB occurred?

[thalestrader 14]

Current view of the ES ...

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[patrader 10]

Out of curiosity, is there a reason the light blue line is slightly above where the DB occurred?

I sometimes find looking at candlestick body only bars helpful for clarification of current direction and S/R.

[thalestrader 14]

New View of the 6B ...

 

Going to break even on the stop loss now ...

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[jonbig04 10]

I sometimes find looking at candlestick body only bars helpful for clarification of current direction and S/R.

 

Hmm, to be honest I don't follow the logic, but I appreciate the clarification!

[thalestrader 14]

...) Price will stop you in, barely nic your entry so to speak before immediately moving away from your entry and heading towards the last swing point or your ISL....

My question was about #2 mainly. In that what is it that tells you to exit a position prior to your initial stop being hit when price just nics your entry? Is it just a feeling, a sense of momentum going against you?

 

For a short, the low tick after I am stopped in is a Low. Price then bounces from that Low and rallies 3-4 ticks above entry. That is a High. Price then comes down and retests the low. That is a Higher Low. I am out if price comes back up to make a Higher High. This usually all happens on the same "bar." Bars have nothing to do with it - Highs, Lows, Higher Highs and Higher Lows, Lower Lows and Lower Highs. I am very consistent.

 

You do not have to drill down to a one minute chart to see this in real time, but for our purposes here, I am showing the one minute chart of the ES short I took as it gives a good example of how I cut a loss when a trade fizzles before it starts.

 

 

 

Best WIshes,

 

Thales

Edited January 26, 2010 by thalestrader

[Marko23 10]

EUR/USD may turn, finally

 

 

I'll quit now.

[forrestang 10]

You do not have to drill down to a one minute chart to see this in real time, but for our purposes here, I am showing the one minute chart of the ES short I took as it gives a good example of how I cut a loss when a trade fizzles before it starts.

 

Thales, I appreciate the further explanation. With this recent dialog I think I have a pretty good understanding on how to cut the trades quick that may not be moving in my favor as I want using HLs LHs etc, of actual price movement and not necessarily based on time summaries.

 

I have one more question for you. It is concerning further management. Before I ask I do realize there are a many ways to manage a position and come out profitable in the long haul.

 

Let's assume the trade is moving how you want, and you are actively in front of your monitor during rth. Do you trail all your positions beyond swing points(LHs, HLs) of price movement(and I mean not based on time but actual price movement), or is your goal to get to BE and let your targets play out?

 

Does this question make sense?

[thalestrader 14]

EUR/USD may turn, finally

 

I'll quit now.

 

Nice chart! Looks like it needed to finish the wave 5 down.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

After that rally, price has pulled back in what may be an ABC correction, so I would not be looking for a long indication per the longer term charts I posted of this pair last week,

 

Long EURGBP at 87.23, stop loss 86.96.

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Does this question make sense?

 

I think so.

 

Stocks - trail behind natural stops (swing points)

 

Futures - Move to BE as soon as reasonable, and then wait for PT1 ot BE. If you look back through this thread, I have very few times posted a trade where I say "I got it with 6 ticks." Maybe once or twice, but even that would surprise me. I get to break even, and then it is PT1 or bust. How many times have I posted this: "A break even effort." Many, many times.

 

Now, if I am taking a continuation trade in the middle of a range, e.g. suppose I took a long near the low of the day, and I made it to my PT1 but the second half was stoped out. Now, suppose further that we are only halfway between today's low and yesterday's high. Well, I might take another long trade after some consolidation. If so, I may very well move my stop to say, BE +2 to +4, because buying in the middle of the range is not a very favorable play compared to buying near the prior day's low, right? So, if ever I do say, I was stopped out for +2 or + 4 or even +6, that usually will be a trade that was initiated from a level that is not, in my opinion, as favorable to my position as would like. The only other time will be if price came within a whisper of my PT1, I will start to shout my stop loss closer and closer. I do not want to risk +30 ticks because I stubbornly wanted 31.

 

I hope that helps.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[patrader 10]

Hmm, to be honest I don't follow the logic, but I appreciate the clarification!

I find value in the high/low of bars and the open/close(candlestick body only) of bars for reading charts.I find myself switching back and forth for clarification depending on the type of price action present.For example,during overlapping bar price action(sideways) i switch to candlestick body only bars which many times helps me read the market easier.Most of the time i use candlestick bars and draw my tl's and tcl's off their high/lows to spot wedges but sometimes it works better for me using candlestick body only(open/close)bars.i will sometimes do the same thing for S/R levels(like on the chart i posted). The main thing i am looking for is three push wedges on the 15m charts where the third push either touches or overshoots the tcl and at the same time is at/or near a previous R/S level.In the chart i posted price had touched the tcl and was near a previous support level which had previously DB.I had switched to candlestick body only bars a couple of times during the wedge formation because of the overlapping two sided price action that was going on especially at the top and bottom of the wedge.When price finally broke out of the sideways action at the bottom i switched back to candlestick bars to see price come down and touch the tcl and then reverse. I saw that touch and reverse as a possible wedge completion and DB pullback test.HTH

[forrestang 10]

Now, if I am taking a continuation trade in the middle of a range, e.g. suppose I took a long near the low of the day, and I made it to my PT1 but the second half was stoped out. Now, suppose further that we are only halfway between today's low and yesterday's high. Well, I might take another long trade after some consolidation. If so, I may very well move my stop to say, BE +2 to +4, because buying in the middle of the range is not a very favorable play compared to buying near the prior day's low, right? So, if ever I do say, I was stopped out for +2 or + 4 or even +6, that usually will be a trade that was initiated from a level that is not, in my opinion, as favorable to my position as would like. The only other time will be if price came within a whisper of my PT1, I will start to shout my stop loss closer and closer. I do not want to risk +30 ticks because I stubbornly wanted 31.

 

 

It does help Thales.

 

Your P2, how do you manage that? Let's say you hit your P1, how do you go about managing your P2? Always via swing points? Or is P2 a BE or bust?

[thalestrader 14]

It does help Thales.

 

Your P2, how do you manage that? Let's say you hit your P1, how do you go about managing your P2? Always via swing points? Or is P2 a BE or bust?

 

Sorry for the delay, Forrest, I ran over to my daughter's elementary school to watch her perform in an assembly.

 

I'll trail via swing points, with the objective to get my SL to PT1's level as quickly as possible. Once I get to PT1 for a stop loss, then It is usually PT2 or bust, unless there is a stop and reverse situation.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Here is how the ES looks over the last hour or so ...

 

 

 

 

You can make it difficult, or you can make it easy. I prefer easy.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[forrestang 10]

Here is how the ES looks over the last hour or so ...

You can make it difficult, or you can make it easy. I prefer easy.

 

 

Very similar situation on NQ on my last trade. Although I was taken out on this one to the tic literally. The first chart is the big picture.

 

Second chart is a look inside the trade. This was a scenario when price stopped me in the the tic before immediately moving against me. At this point I'm looking for an excuse to exit(because price didn't move in my direction at all initially). On the small range chart, you can see the high print. At this point, price makes a small move down, and at this point a move up would be the break of a HL, and I would exit.

 

Well this happened and stopped me out to the tic.