Reading Charts in Real Time

[thalestrader 14]

Current look at the GBPUSD ... good night folks ...

 

As I have said, I do my best trading when asleep ...

 

Good Night:

 

 

Good Morning:

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Current look at the GBPUSD ...

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Current look at the GBPUSD ...

 

Took +50 ticks on the long (posted above and well before it triggered) while I slept, and another +50 ticks on this short (also posted before it triggered) while I had my morning coffee.

 

I really need to set my orders and leave the office more often.

 

Before Morning Coffee:

 

[

B]After Morning Coffee:[/b]

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Marko23 10]

EUR/USD Short setup

[thalestrader 14]

15m 6E chart

 

That wedge or diagonal type pattern you show, patrader, is a clear indication that the rally was ready to pause or reverse. If I had bought the initial break high, I had have exited at break even +/- once that diagonal became manifest. I would not want to have been long unless price cleared the upper trendline.

 

I've attached a chart showing on the spot EURUSD.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Edited January 22, 2010 by thalestrader
typo/spelling

[thalestrader 14]

From what I am seeing as this week comes to close, it looks as though the EUR may be mopping up the final stages of a corrective sideways/down trend against the GBP. If so, the EURGBP should present a long term long indication as it resumes its uptrend against the Pound (see daily chart).

 

 

.

Also, day to day, hour to hour, minute to minute volatility is acting much as it did in July-August of 2008. After that, the daily moves became wild and large. If this persists, then that means wider stops, smaller position size, much larger targets, and in many trades, allowing more leeway before moving my stops to break even.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

GBPUSD: My feelings say down, but price is telling me up ... I guess I can risk 25 ticks of the last two trades profit to see if I can finish the week with a +150 tick day (showing the 6B).

Buy stop 1.6126, stop loss 1.6101.

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

GBPUSD: My feelings say down, but price is telling me up ... I guess I can risk 25 ticks of the last two trades profit to see if I can finish the week with a +150 tick day (showing the 6B).

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Certainly not the type of welcome to which I had become accusotmed to over the last 12 hours!

 

At any rate, price wedging along the lows, the preceding impulse down, the tough level at which the entry point was placed all led me to abandon my dream of +150 by cutting out at -4. Had I not pulled the rip cord, I'd have moved my stop to where the red line is in this attached screenshot, as that would be a break of a pattern close enough to a bear flag for me to suspect the downtrend did indeed have at least one more wave to go.

 

If price does hold at a higher low, then I would consider a buy at new highs.

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=18206&stc=1&d=1264168473

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Marko23 10]

EUR/USD: Short triggered earlier

 

[thalestrader 14]

... as that would be a break of a pattern close enough to a bear flag for me to suspect the downtrend did indeed have at least one more wave to go.

 

See how that works ...

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Beachtrader 10]

5m trap, in my humble opinion.

 

Hi Marko,

 

Would you mind expanding on that if it's not too much trouble?

 

Many thanks

BT

[thalestrader 14]

I'll stay with 15m chart, no 5m stuff!

 

I think Beachtrader has spent a lot of time on the 5 minute chart and he may feel more comfortable working from that level. Like you, Marko, I find the 15 minute seems easiest on my eyes. Daedalus prefers 89 tick charts. As long as time matches degree matches trades, and each is responsible for his or her trades, the good the bad, and the ugly, then to each his or her own ...

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Beachtrader 10]

and each is responsible for his or her trades, the good the bad, and the ugly

 

I think this may qualify as good, bad and then very ugly!! What started out as a nice SAR from a long that was going nowhere turned into an extremely frustrating trade. What was I thinking to watch a bounce 2 pips from my TP turn into a b/e trade. I think i need a long weekend away from the screens!

 

 

 

Kind regards

BT

[Marko23 10]

I think Beachtrader has spent a lot of time on the 5 minute chart and he may feel more comfortable working from that level. Like you, Marko, I find the 15 minute seems easiest on my eyes. Daedalus prefers 89 tick charts. As long as time matches degree matches trades, and each is responsible for his or her trades, the good the bad, and the ugly, then to each his or her own ...

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

This was a reminder to myself since I found me playing with a 5m chart, because EUR/USD moved so slowly.

[Marko23 10]

Hi Marko,

 

Would you mind expanding on that if it's not too much trouble?

 

Many thanks

BT

 

May I answer without being interpreted as knowing it better or nosey, just from my own experience? I don't want to stir up anyone.

[thalestrader 14]

What was I thinking to watch a bounce 2 pips from my TP turn into a b/e trade

 

Once you start getting close to you PT, you have to start thinking in terms of how much are you willing to risk to get that extra 15, then 10, then 2 ticks?

 

On another note, EURGBP looks to be giving a second chance to get long on the hourly. I had been following this for weeks, and earlier this week it started to show signs of a bottom (perhaps not the bottom, but a bottom nonetheless). I cannot believe I did not get an order in to go long this above the sideways movement along those lows! As it is, I will likely wait for a retracement and then breakout to new highs to get long of the EUR against the Pound. I'm not interested in this as a day trade pair. I think this is better as a swing position trade.

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Beachtrader 10]

May I answer without being interpreted as knowing it better or nosey, just from my own experience? I don't want to stir up anyone.

 

Hi Marko,

 

Please do. I don't want to bore anyone with how I manage my trades save to say that I am extremely aggressive in cutting them if they aren't working out quickly, but anything I can learn to avoid obvious pitfalls I would be extremely grateful for.

 

Kind regards

BT

[thalestrader 14]

May I answer without being interpreted as knowing it better or nosey, just from my own experience?

 

I would hope so! I think I could probably answer for you, as I tend to agree with you concerning the shorter time frames, but you go ahead. No worries.

 

My own two cents is this: The only time I need to see anything smaller than a 15 minute chart is if I was absent from the screen and I need to see which came first - the high of a swing or the low of a swing - anyone who wishes to see an actual example of what I mean can use the "search this thread" function, and look for the pinbar discussion between Blowfish, kiwi, and myself. Otherwise, anything you can see on a small time frame chart I can see on a 15 minute chart. I think it would be a prudent use of one's time to use the 15 minute chart and learn to follow price as flow, rather than price as bars. Price moves in waves, not discreet scratches upon a chart. You can look at smaller bars, but you are no more likely to see the true character of price action in those bars than a scientist can apprehend the beauty and rhythm of the ocean by examining sea water molecules beneath a microscope. But that is my own opinion, and while I consider it correct, I know I fail to persuade. I mean no disrespect to those whose opinion differs from my own.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Marko23 10]

Hi Marko,

 

Please do. I don't want to bore anyone with how I manage my trades save to say that I am extremely aggressive in cutting them if they aren't working out quickly, but anything I can learn to avoid obvious pitfalls I would be extremely grateful for.

 

Kind regards

BT

 

If 5m is your standard timeframe, as Thales suggested, the following does not apply to you.

 

When I follow the Thales' method to trade EUR/USD, everything is setup for 15m as the visual standard. If price doesn't move quickly after a good start signal, I sometimes find myself switching the timeframe to 5m. This morning there was such a situation, when price twice touched different 78% marks in the wedge and did not proceed.

 

If I switch to 5m in such a context, I usually draw a false conclusion from what I see. This is my "5m trap".

[thalestrader 14]

I'm not trading this, and its not pretty (not by a long shot), but that does not mean it may not be good for at least PT1 ... the EURJPY ... (this also has the look of being a sideways consolidation before next move down. At best, either way, its a 50/50 trade and I am not interested in it for myself or for my daughter's account).

 

Also, unless I state otherwise, it is likely that any charts I post during the remainder of the day are not representing actual trades. I am quite pleased with the week, and especially this last day, and unless somethng spectacular happens that seduces me to trade, I am finished until Tokyo opens for business again.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[patrader 10]

15m 6E chart

[Beachtrader 10]

Hi Marko,

 

Thank you for explanation. I see precisely what you are saying. I think this is a trap I have been falling into of late as I am very used to looking at M5, although almost all the levels I tend to trade off are M15 and above, as M5 is the timeframe that I have got used to looking at. That said, and someone put this very well to me, I simply look at clusters at or around these levels so, in effect, the timeframe is pretty meaningless to me unless I see what I am looking for. I think very often the clusters I see are visible on a higher timeframe as well but my eyes don't see the price action so well.

 

With kind regards

BT

[Marko23 10]

At 1st target after a deviation

 

[elitejets 10]

Once you start getting close to you PT, you have to start thinking in terms of how much are you willing to risk to get that extra 15, then 10, then 2 ticks?

 

On another note, EURGBP looks to be giving a second chance to get long on the hourly. I had been following this for weeks, and earlier this week it started to show signs of a bottom (perhaps not the bottom, but a bottom nonetheless). I cannot believe I did not get an order in to go long this above the sideways movement along those lows! As it is, I will likely wait for a retracement and then breakout to new highs to get long of the EUR against the Pound. I'm not interested in this as a day trade pair. I think this is better as a swing position trade.

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

My first post here!

I like your EURGBP trade idea, I took its evil sister GBPCHF. I usually trade the hourly/4hrly but here is my 15min chart.

Nicola

 

PS - about the TP. I have got within 2 pips of my TP and watched it reverse. Its a toughie but if you stick to your rules it usually pays off over time. I have to have rules because if I do it discretionary it doesn't usually work for me.

[thalestrader 14]

My first post here!

I like your EURGBP trade idea, I took its evil sister GBPCHF. I usually trade the hourly/4hrly but here is my 15min chart.

Nicola

 

PS - about the TP. I have got within 2 pips of my TP and watched it reverse. Its a toughie but if you stick to your rules it usually pays off over time. I have to have rules because if I do it discretionary it doesn't usually work for me.

 

Welcome, elitejets!

 

I think we would all benefit from seeing your 60M/240M analysis. I hope this is the first of many posts here in our little corner of the internet!

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales