Reading Charts in Real Time

[thalestrader 14]

I've attached another image to make it clear which one is missing

for me.

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

EDIT: Take your pick ...

Edited January 15, 2010 by thalestrader

[thalestrader 14]

Here is the 6B showing a potential short opportunity a somewhat larger degree of trend than many of my posted trades.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Cory2679 11]

Here is the one I think you cannot see ...

 

 

Thanks, but I can see that one. I've attached an image...

 

EDIT: It would be your version if this MK chart that I've attached...

 

EDIT2: Guys, is no one else having a problem seeing this image? I see quite a few people have read it/thanked it...I've loaded the thread on two different computers and on both can't view the image. Check out the image I attached to this message and see if you can see an image where there's nothing but a red "x" for me.

 

I don't want to be a burden, like I said...I can get the point without that image...but it looked like thales spent a lot of time on that post and would want to know if one of the images is not showing properly...but if it is truly just me, forget about it.

Edited January 15, 2010 by Cory2679
add

[Cory2679 11]

EDIT: Take your pick ...

 

Thanks, Thales!

 

It was this one, by the way...

[Beachtrader 10]

I haven't had any problems seeing the charts

[Marko23 10]

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

EDIT: Take your pick ...

 

Great job Thales!!

 

Thanks a lot.

[Marko23 10]

EUR/USD waiting for 3

 

ADD: Reset (new 3-day low) for EUR/USD. FDAX was a much better Short than EUR/USD today.

Edited January 15, 2010 by Marko23

[Cory2679 11]

Here is the 6B showing a potential short opportunity a somewhat larger degree of trend than many of my posted trades.

 

Alternative view (smaller degree)...

 

PT1 hit for 30 ticks.

 

(PT2 is @ +80 ticks...1.62044)

 

----------

 

Update: Stop moved, made new low.

 

Update 2: Stop moved again.

 

Update 3: And again.

Edited January 15, 2010 by Cory2679

[thalestrader 14]

Here is the 6B showing a potential short opportunity a somewhat larger degree of trend than many of my posted trades.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

 

Short 1.6261, with targets ... I wish this were any day but Friday to be playing a swing this large. If I am not stopped out by the close, I will exit by the close.

 

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Digging in or chipping away? (showing spot GBPUSD here)

 

Time will tell ...

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Alternative view (smaller degree)...

 

 

Cory gets it. I suspected that he had it yesterday when he posted about getting ready to look for a long on the EURJPY. But now I know he does.

 

You're going to do fine, Cory. There will be disappointments along the way to be sure. But do not allow yourself to get distracted from this approach to something else, because you have the basics down, and it is a matter of time and experience to sharpen your focus and attack.

 

As Indiana Jones would say, "Great Kid! Now don't get cocky," because the market is a very effective at humbling you when you need it.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Cory2679 11]

Cory gets it.

 

Thanks for the kind words. That post has certainly made my day!

 

-Cory

[thalestrader 14]

Short 1.6261, with targets ... I wish this were any day but Friday to be playing a swing this large. If I am not stopped out by the close, I will exit by the close.

 

 

 

Having been up 56 ticks on this, and it being Friday, you all will forgive me for having taken 1/3 of my contracts off for a +50 tick profit while sliding my stop loss to break even, right?

 

And if I get nervous should price get back close to 1.6250 and I close the whole position out with the click of a flatten button, you'll understand that as well, right?

 

At any rate, price has yet to put in a decent natural stop of like proportion to the trade, but since it is this late in the week, price can get a bit unruly heading into the absolute illiquidity of the weekend.

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Cory2679 11]

Alternative view (smaller degree)...

 

PT1 hit for 30 ticks.

 

(PT2 is @ +80 ticks...1.62044)

 

----------

 

Update: Stop moved, made new low.

 

Update 2: Stop moved again.

 

Update 3: And again.

 

And that's a wrap...for this trade and my day.

 

Second half got stopped for +37.5 ticks.

[thalestrader 14]

"The EUR/AUD is an important forex cross...

 

Hi rigel,

 

After that you lose me. I mean, I read your post, and I understand what you're saying (or what your colleague is saying, I should say). But I truly do not consider such fundamental considerations in my day to day trading. For example, I was long oil for the longest time. I had no idea whether it was going up because of demand for the oil or demand for the futures contracts, but it was going up, so I stayed long of it. I managed to get short of oil soon after closing my longs, and stayed short of it for a long ways down. I had no idea if I was witnessing the collapse of demand for the real stuff or fear of being long the futures contracts (I suspect fear). But it was going down, and so I stayed short of it. I did not sell the top nor buy the bottom, but I managed to get a fair chunk of the in-between, all the while blissfully ignorant of the macroeconomics and political economy of oil.

 

As far as what any currency is going to do, where the mean is or ought to be or where it is coming from or reverting to matters not to me. I am quite comfortable knowing that I do not know, and that I can profit nonetheless. The key is in knowing that I am ignorant. Nothing wrong with ignorance, so long as one is a ware of it.

 

I do not mean to sound disrespectful of you or your colleague. Far from it, I just saw your post now, I wanted to be sure to respond to it. I simply do not have an opinion of the sort proffered by you friend as to where the EURAUD is heading. On a long term view, if I were short of it (and I am not - never traded it myself), I'd probably still be short, though I would have booked some profits here if not long before. I'd look at the first 123 on a daily chart as a chance close remaining shorts and possibly to initiate a long position. I think 1.5900-1.6300 offers a potential zone of stiff resistance (not that a panic couldn't send price through there in a few seconds). We'll have such a buy point (daily) at 1.5800 or so. Then, manage it according to natural stops if and when such stop s develop (or the trade gets stopped out). If I were looking to build a position, I'd add at new highs after pullbacks, and also watch for subsequent 123's as they become visible on first the weekly, and then the monthly charts.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

And that's a wrap...for this trade and my day.

 

Second half got stopped for +37.5 ticks.

 

Here is what I am looking at - I'll get stopped for +9 on the last four if no slippage on the way out if price comes much closer.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Marko23 10]

Last picture for EUR/USD this week

 

I prefer this way to label it. The numbers are aligned in the direction of the anticipated trade.

[Cory2679 11]

As Indiana Jones would say, "Great Kid! Now don't get cocky," because the market is a very effective at humbling you when you need it.

 

I'm reminded of a quote from Market Wizards from Paul Tudor Jones:

 

"Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself and your ability. Don't ever feel that you are very good. The second you do, you are dead."

[rigel 10]

Thanks thalestrader for your response,

yes there are as many trading styles as number of traders out there, your simple approach based solely on PA is pretty effective and very much consistent with TraderVic method, Al brook also mentions it as one of the most reliable in his book.

 

However noticed that you defined 1, 2, 3 as per TraderVic ie. 1-Trendline Break, 2, Test of swing high, 3, Break of swing low and then when you marked those on your charts , the 2 appears to be on swing low and 3 as test of swing high.

Any reason for that, or have I got it wrong:)))

[patrader 10]

[thalestrader 14]

However noticed that you defined 1, 2, 3 as per TraderVic ie. 1-Trendline Break, 2, Test of swing high, 3, Break of swing low and then when you marked those on your charts , the 2 appears to be on swing low and 3 as test of swing high.

Any reason for that, or have I got it wrong:)))

 

Well, there are two different customs going on here concerning the 123. As you noted, there is Trader Vic's 123. Another writer by the name Joe Ross uses the 123 as you note also - high, low, lower high. Thus, there may be some confusion.

 

Joe Ross's nomenclature makes for easy labeling and communication on a forum, but Trader Vic's understanding really is the controlling logic to the approach I use. I had an "aha" moment recently where I realized that these two were being presented by me as identical, when in fact they are not.

 

As a result, I fear that many here perhaps fell into the trap common to those who attempt to follow Joe Ross of seeing these little 123's everywhere without every learning to distinguish those that are indicating a tradable trend change from those which are merely a continuation of the immediate trend. Trader Vic gets you in on the change (and to be fair, I do believe, as Blowfish has stated, that that is Joe Ross's intention as well).

 

Again, sorry for the confusion.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Weekend Reading

 

Hi folks,

 

This week another Van Tharp article which is an excellent companion piece to last week's Van Tharp Article that I posted here: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/208/reading-charts-real-time-6151-308.html#post85930

 

I know I have taken some enemy fire on this point, but I really do believe that understanding your emotions and your biases, and subsequently being able to control those emotions and keep the effects of your biases in check the basis upon which success in trading is built. You can have the best method, system, approach in the world, but if you cannot control you emotions and your prejudices, you are doomed.

 

I have a technical article or two I'd like to share this week also, but I am having some difficulty finding them. If I cannot find the electronic copies, I will have to scan my hard copies and post them later.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Doomed - Van K. Tharp.pdf

[MidKnight 12]

Hi Thales,

 

My utmost thanks for taking the time to respond to my screenshots with your own images and thought process.

 

Likewise, you cannot cleave trend from price. And if you cannot cleave trend from price, you cannot disregard that trend exists at all levels, diffuse through price action. When I hear someone say "I could have seen it if I had dropped down to a lower time frame, I know that that person has not yet grasped price movement. He is watching bars or candles, not price. I have said many times that I do not need a 1 minute chart to see a small degree 123 so long as I am watching price live. I do not even need a chart. I just need the DOM.

 

I do not agree that all your 123s are clear, it seems to me that some of them you have marked are simply bar breaks. Yes, I used the taboo word of 'bar' I understand what you say above but if one is entering off those small 123s that are not clearly visible from the 15m chart then there will be a HUGE amount of these. So much so probably as to overwhelm the trader which ones to take and which ones not. I know this from my first year of trading experience when I was determined to be a price action trader. My training was to involve myself into as much PA as possible every day. I thought that to speed up my process I would look at very small time frame tick charts because this would expose me to more price action per day. I was trying to trade the obvious 123s, very similar to what is advocated here but I lost out huge just because there was so many of these patterns on a small time frame that do not go anywhere. I was doing this on futures of the bund, stoxx, and euro mostly. Back then I was naive and unaware of contexts.

 

I am still frustrated at my inability to make the JR 123 style work for me, that is why I keep going on about these here and questioning your thinking in hopes that just maybe I will see the shadows for what they really are. To date in the majority of my trading, I have been unable to extract consistent profits with a single entry unless the conditions are volatile. I would like to be able to hone my skills to be able to trade with a single entry so I can do an all in approach and enter every trade at its max position size. That is I keep spending some regular efforts trying to apply this. Yes, I understand what you mean by varying degrees, but it looks to me that you know when to apply the smaller degree and when not to.

 

With kind regards,

MK

[Kiwi 16]

From the Market Profile thread running currently (and a bit more interesting than when it started):

 

 

Commercials...other time frame....composite operator.....traders from the beginning of time have been tracking the commercials. Look at Wyckoff and his tracking of the CO. But what came first the chicken or the egg. Do commercials trade around value or does value follow the commercials. Willing to bet its a little of both. In either case value = structure.

 

" It was Tom Alexander who said that more time applied to studying the market in an out of context way leads you to nothing and gets you no further ahead. "

 

Context = background = value on higher time frame.

 

 

""Answers are easy to find, it's the right questions that are hard to come by. Once you've figured out the right question finding the answer is just a matter of time.""

 

Question to ask yourself: will the vertical movement in the foreground get absorbed into the background or will it change the condition of the background.

 

Consider this from Steidylmayer:

 

Successful traders realize that the setup for both winning and losing trades look identical when looked at in the context of short term market activity. It's the longer term background condition that can distinguish between them. Using the background as the basis for your trade setups = upgraded opportunities.

[rcossey73 10]

I always struggled to see Vic 123's, I borrowed this chart from his book to illustrate where I go wrong most of the time. The black arrows are there to point out his 1,2 and 3 as they are a little hard to spot.

 

The blue arrows point out what I would have seen in real time and probably traded. Its hard to explain why, but for me I have difficulty spotting these during the day. They always look so obvious after the fact though.

 

Although I have followed this thread from the beginning I have not tried hard to learn from it :crap: So I am going back and starting over from the beginning, hopefully I will catch back up before too long.