Reading Charts in Real Time

[thalestrader 14]

6B(GBPUSD) - here is the one I'm stalking: Sell stop at 1.6110, stop loss will be about 30 ticks, with a profit target at 159.80.

 

I do not like holding through the Globex close/re-open without a big fat cushion. We'll se if this thing gives me anything approaching comfortable between now and the close (presumeing that it even stays profitable).

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

I was very tempted by this. I had my order in for the longest time, but I just pulled it. I don't know if I have the patience for that. Maybe if it were earlier in the day, but I have a feeling that trade would take hours...might not even hit PT until Tokyo!

 

I wouldn't expect it to hit PT for some time, but I would have liked for it to be about halfway there by now. This is one advantage spot has over futures. There have been times where I have been in a futures trade, Globex closes, the market moves against me, and by the time I can get out, my loss if larger than I would have liked to have to take. SPot keeps right on going, so had you been short, and the market reacted against you, your broker would let you out. It is nice when price moves quickly and you hit for 100-200 ticks in 60 minutes or less, but most of the time when I hit for a whole handle or more it takes 8-40 hours, not 8-40 minutes.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Cory2679 11]

...I'll actually probably be on for the first part of Tokyo...

 

No longer the case. I'll be back tomorrow morning!

 

-Cory

[MidKnight 12]

If it is OK with the thread, I am trading an experiment very lightly in a small oanda account of which I wouldn't mind posting real-time in this thread. The purpose for me is to evaluate if I am excessively micro-managing my trades. I'll be posting 60m or 240m charts because that is really where the trade idea comes from, even though I am entering on the 5m chart.

 

I haven't fully figured out my trade management with a style like this, but it won't just be set a stop and targets then walk away - stuff happens after entry and I do think it needs to be monitored in some way, but not excessively like I have been doing. My recent holiday study did reveal that a significant number of my general trade ideas were good, but it was my excessive micro-management that was hurting the bottom line.

 

This is generally S/R trading along with a trend component based on how I evaluate trend. There are times where I will go against my definition of trend, but in general I do not. I'm looking to take 1/2 of the position off at what I consider a significant 60m S/R area, then another 1/4 off at what I consider a significant 240m S/R area - possibly even the entire position. It will sort of depend on the context - is the market generally swinging or is it generally trending? That sort of thing.

 

Trades in general will last 1-2 days and I'll be doing this on GU.

 

I'm currently long (despite my trend read as being down) since early yesterday so will not be posting anything until a new idea comes to me.

 

With kind regards,

MK

[thalestrader 14]

If it is OK with the thread, I am trading an experiment very lightly in a small oanda account of which I wouldn't mind posting real-time in this thread

 

You're always welcome here, MK, and I for one am looking forward to your posts!

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

6B(GBPUSD) - here is the one I'm stalking: Sell stop at 1.6110, stop loss will be about 30 ticks, with a profit target at 1.5980.

 

Hi Folks,

 

At this point, 6B has managed to just less than half of the 130 tick PT decline. Hardly impulsive, but at least it has the direction right, for now ...

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[fxThunder 10]

long entry on the GU. I also included my 240min chart to illustrate the support and resistance areas that I am watching for trade initiation.

 

Cheers,

eNQ

[fxThunder 10]

GU long only made it to PT1 before sinking back and taking the balance out at be.

 

I did expect a better move from that 240min support but will let pa guide me at all times.

Kinda disappointed that PT2 was not even threathened...

 

Cheers,

eNQ

[fxThunder 10]

Right now I am eyeing this long setup on EU.

 

EDIT:

It is quite clear to me that this entry is one swing too late, I will still manage this according to my plan - just making the observation.

 

GU has dropped into the previous support area again and a 123 setup could develop for longs again.

 

Cheers,

eNQ

Edited January 12, 2010 by fxThunder
typo

[Kiwi 16]

Right now I am eyeing this long setup on EU.

 

 

I take your setup and buy that pullback ... long 1.45060 ... stop 1.4487 .... your target

 

(why? because you already have a 123 break and I'd prefer to buy this pullback as I don't believe in breakeven stops ... we shall see mr Thales )

 

.

.

.

.

 

LOL. That'll teach me ... stopped out.

Edited January 12, 2010 by Kiwi
Stopped Out :(

[fxThunder 10]

No surprise. Got stopped on my belated EU long...

[fxThunder 10]

I take your setup and buy that pullback ... long 1.45060 ... stop 1.4487 .... your target

 

(why? because you already have a 123 break and I'd prefer to buy this pullback as I don't believe in breakeven stops ... we shall see mr Thales )

 

.

.

.

.

 

LOL. That'll teach me ... stopped out.

 

Hi Kiwi,

 

I am actually annoyed at myself that I got suckered into attempting a late long again.

 

I do hope I have learnt my lesson now...

 

Cheers,

eNQ

[thalestrader 14]

We've noted the 134.30 - 134.50 level on the EURJPY has a posible rally target/resistance level.

 

Hi Folks,

 

Current look at the EURJPY ses a decline from anticipated resistance to what is the first possible support level. Of course, price reaching support is not in and of itself a signal to do anything other than to pay attention, and watch for evidence of a reversal or a break and continuation of the immediate down trend.

 

 

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

At this point, 6B has managed to just less than half of the 130 tick PT decline. Hardly impulsive, but at least it has the direction right, for now ...

 

... and at that point, that was the bottom tick of that decline. I guess in hindsight, that was the perfect place to book profits.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

I am actually annoyed at myself that I got suckered into attempting a late long again.

 

I do hope I have learnt my lesson now...

 

There is always the next trade. But I too fight the urge (and not always successfully) to stand down when I miss the most favorable entry. You can always look at the bigger picture, and see if a late entry is still justified, but you must be carefule 1) not to "see" a reason to enter late just because that is what you want to see, and 2) you must use a stop that corresponds to the scale of swing on which you are entering, and not the small swing that you missed - that will be a killer.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[fxThunder 10]

...2) you must use a stop that corresponds to the scale of swing on which you are entering, and not the small swing that you missed - that will be a killer.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Hi Thales,

 

My understanding of your comment is that my stop was too small? Is that correct?

 

Cheers,

eNQ

[thalestrader 14]

Current view of the EURUSD - price is coiling (a chop zone within a chop zone) and going no where fast. Typically, price going nowhere fast is a prelude to price going somewhere fast.

But not much to do but wait for it to decide which way it is going to try first.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Thales,

 

My understanding of your comment is that my stop was too small? Is that correct?

 

Cheers,

eNQ

 

No, not necessarily, as you were still trading off the same scale of swings. I was refering to a case where you miss an entry on a 15 minute chart, and then you pull up say a 60 minute or 240 minute and you se a larger swing opportunity in the same direction, and you use a 15 minute pivot as a stop, bu tthat pivot level is not a visible pivot on the swing level you are actually trading - does that ake sense?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[fxThunder 10]

No, not necessarily, as you were still trading off the same scale of swings. I was refering to a case where you miss an entry on a 15 minute chart, and then you pull up say a 60 minute or 240 minute and you se a larger swing opportunity in the same direction, and you use a 15 minute pivot as a stop, bu tthat pivot level is not a visible pivot on the swing level you are actually trading - does that ake sense?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Yes it does make sense - thanks for the clarification..

[thalestrader 14]

Yes it does make sense

 

Well that's amazing given the number of typos with which I managed to mangle my post.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Current look at the USDJPY daily and 240 minute. That uptrend has been fairly steep, so a pullback is not surprising. The decline has reached a level at which one might anticipate support. We need to wait and see whther this is merely a pullback or the makings of a reversal. Neither a rally nor a break would surprise me. This downdraft has been decently impulsive, however, so a break might be more likely.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Current look at the EURJPY shows a long opportunity, and the EURUSD has, quite un-energetically, nibbled its way through the top of its chop zone.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

I'm not trading this, but a sell stop at 81.40 on oil looks like it might be good for 40 or 50 pennies, though it might be more prudent to wait for 80.31.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

EURUSD looks like it will test yesterday's high ...

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

GBPUSD looks like its caught in the middle of a giant game of chicken.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales