Reading Charts in Real Time

[motion100 10]

EU long entry on the break of overnight (asia) level. Of course could switch it for a short entry (red line) with blue line as a stop.

 

Out of interest what are people's views on the current EU?

 

regards

 

Steve

Edited January 8, 2010 by motion100

[Marko23 10]

EU still short

[Marko23 10]

EU at break even

[Marko23 10]

Stop lowered

 

[Marko23 10]

Stopped

 

[thalestrader 14]

Long GU at the breakout line

 

Cheers,

eNQ

 

Nice trade, EmNQ ... here is how it looked to me before and after ...

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

EU long entry on the break of overnight (asia) level. Of course could switch it for a short entry (red line) with blue line as a stop.

 

Out of interest what are people's views on the current EU?

 

regards

 

Steve

 

Hi Steve,

 

Thanks for sharing your chart with us. If I may make a comment: Your long entry was a bit early, in my opinion. Price, you see, was in a chop zone. When dealing with price inside a chop zone, consolidation, wedge, etc, take your cues from the last real high and low that bounds that zone for a break. I think this is the biggest reason that most folks wrongly believe that "most breakouts fail" or that ne shouldn't trade breakouts because most of them are "false." I am not the only one who has found that quite the oppositie is true - most breakouts allow for at least a breakeven if not a small profit, and of course the occassional large run. Breakouts are a high probability trade, but you have to trade a break of a significant level, and not, as daedalus mentioned yesterday, a break withn a zone of many layered stops, i.e. a chop zone.

 

You can trade within a chop zone, but you should be loking to sell against the upper level and buy against the lower level if price gives an indication that that level is going to hold. After all, if that level holds, what is it going to do? Well, it wants out of the chop zone, so if support hols, it will likely try to escape through resistance. If resistance then holds, it will try again to break support. Now this would not have worked well yesterday and price basically went into a narrowing coil all day without ever really testing the upper level of the chop zone, and floating stubbornly along the lower level. The fact that it established its resting place in the lower half of the range should have been a clue as to which level price (i.e. the market) thought would be easiest to break.

 

I have attached a chart that shows the levels I noted yesterday, and how they look this morning.

 

As far as anyone's current views on the EURUSD, all you need is a chart.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Daily view of the US Dollar Index - Looks to be in a little "bull flag" type consolidation. Two trendlines to clear and just minutes to NFP.

 

Tonight's business news headlines might be speaking of the "Unexpected Strength of the US Dollar."

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Daily view of the EURUSD - basically the inverse of the US Dollar. The market is selling dollars and buying Euros in response to NFP. Now its a waiting game to see whether or not that follows through, reverses, or, as sometimes happens, the move is over for the day and its time to call it a weekend.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

This is a great example of what I mean when I say that the market cycles between periods or range expansion and range contraction (and I am not taking credit for the observation).

 

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[fxThunder 10]

Update on earlier GU long: target reached.

 

Cheers,

eNQ

[thalestrader 14]

Update on earlier GU long: target reached.

 

Cheers,

eNQ

 

Excellent trade, EmNQ, Congratulations!

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Two nights ago a sold the 6E (chart shows spot EURUSD) short soon after the Tokyo open, and it took nearly 36 hours to decline to the profit target. Then, in less than 30 minutes, it recovers the entire decline, finding (momentary?) resistance at that prior break down point. This is a remarkably impulsive, remarkable rally. If it has exhausted itself, this would be a good place to rest (or reverse). I haven't been able to catch my breath, myself.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

And in spite of the fireworks, nothing has changed with respect to the daily views. For now, the US Dollar is in a nascent uptrend per the daily view and the EUR is in a nascent downtrend per the daily view. Each has been consolidating in a range that implies a cntinuation of those new trends. However, I always remind myself that the longer price consolidates, the more likely it is to reverse rather than continue. Neither of these have been unusually long, however, and the levels that would confirm continuation or warn of reversal are clearly visible on the chart.

 

As Firewalker's excellent thread taught - "all you need is a chart."

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

a short on the EURUSD after all that ...? (I'm not trading this short, by the way, but I am watching).

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

 

EDIT: I took it short very small size in the micro account at 1.4373, stop is 1.4395, and stop will be trailing with no set profit target.

[mblack246 10]

As far as anyone's current views on the EURUSD, all you need is a chart.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Hi Thales,

 

Just wondering what you would think of an entry here.

 

Price made a L-LH-LL-LH over an extended period of time. It then made several attempts at breaking the latest LH, failed, and quickly fell away.

 

Thanks,

 

mb

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Thales,

 

Just wondering what you would think of an entry here.

 

Price made a L-LH-LL-LH over an extended period of time. It then made several attempts at breaking the latest LH, failed, and quickly fell away.

 

Thanks,

 

mb

 

I myself would have waited for the break below the level you mark as "HL". But that is me. There are plenty of traders who would enter a position just as you mark here (Joe Ross calls this the "Trader's Trick Entry" I believe). If you are comfortable with making your entries at such points, and you have success with it, then you should continue, right?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

a short on the EURUSD after all that ...?

 

I guess so ...

 

 

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[motion100 10]

Nice trade Thales.

 

Out of interest is this a typical piece of PA that you trade after events such as NFPs?

 

Regards

 

Steve

[thalestrader 14]

Nice trade Thales.

 

Out of interest is this a typical piece of PA that you trade after events such as NFPs?

 

Regards

 

Steve

 

Its the same as I always trade, whether NFP or any other day - High at resistance, a 123 indicating a possible short opportunity, etc. If anything, what is not typical is that I did not feel comfortable going against that impulse, and so I did not short the 6E as I would usually do, but instead shorted a small position in my daughter's micro account (very small - three dollars/pip).

 

So is this typical NFP? No, it is just the same thing I have been doing here day after day after day. But what is not typical is that I really did not trust what price was telling me, so I basically stood down. I'm not terribly happy with myself for that, but I called my broker, and they will not allow me to enter a short based upon where price was thrity minutes ago, so I am stuck with a little 30K spot position. Of course, if this goes back to the lows of the session, then that little short will be worth $300, which isn't bad when you figure the initial risk was a $66 bet, right?

 

Also what is typical is that I usually do not enter a position before the number, and I will almost always wait for price to get somewhere significant, i.e. S/R and then decide what, if anything, I'm going to do about it.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[TradeRunner 10]

UK weather chaos has given me a chance to catch up.

 

Here are my results from the 7th: 6 trades (+30)

[fxThunder 10]

Its the same as I always trade, whether NFP or any other day - High at resistance, a 123 indicating a possible short opportunity, etc. If anything, what is not typical is that I did not feel comfortable going against that impulse, and so I did not short the 6E as I would usually do, but instead shorted a small position in my daughter's micro account (very small - three dollars/pip).

 

So is this typical NFP? No, it is just the same thing I have been doing here day after day after day. But what is not typical is that I really did not trust what price was telling me, so I basically stood down. I'm not terribly happy with myself for that, but I called my broker, and they will not allow me to enter a short based upon where price was thrity minutes ago, so I am stuck with a little 30K spot position. Of course, if this goes back to the lows of the session, then that little short will be worth $300, which isn't bad when you figure the initial risk was a $66 bet, right?

 

Also what is typical is that I usually do not enter a position before the number, and I will almost always wait for price to get somewhere significant, i.e. S/R and then decide what, if anything, I'm going to do about it.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Hi Thales,

 

You mentioned in a post in late Dec that you may trade a $250 account - boom or bust. Do you still intend to do this?

 

Cheers,

eNQ

Edited January 8, 2010 by fxThunder
typo

[motion100 10]

Hi Thales,

 

Thanks for your comments regarding ranges and breakouts. I'll certainly try and incorperate that in the future.

 

I'm currently looking to go long at the high of the US session on EJ. Stop will be below recent low if it comes as planned. anyone any views/comments?

 

Regards

 

Steve

[thalestrader 14]

I'm currently looking to go long at the high of the US session on EJ. Stop will be below recent low if it comes as planned. anyone any views/comments?

 

My daughter is short from last night, and her stop on what she has left is now your proposed entry (kind of reminds one of daedalus's excellent post from earlier this week, doesn't it?). Her profit target is 132.20. I should have closed it for her manually on the spike down that way but I was watching other things and it happened so quickly.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

You mentioned in a post in late Dec that you may trade a $250 account - boom or bust. Do you still intend to do this?

 

I set it up with $300 (it has an extra 70 pennies in it from a little trade I did when I first set the account up a week or so ago with a micro lot [one dime/pip] on the GBPJPY just to see what the margin level really was for that pair).

 

I haven't decided how I am going to trade it yet. I have too much between the fund account, my futures account, and baby sitting my daughter's account to try to seriously day trade this little micro account. I'm working up something of a "very short swing" trading plan where I can find maybe one trade/day, set a stop loss and a take profit, and forget about it. It will be the same approach as we've been doing here, of course, but I will be looking to trade off larger swings and breakouts of more significant S/R levels.

 

 

Once I start trading it, I'll post the trades here in advance, and I'll share the PnL over in Brownie's thread.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales