Reading Charts in Real Time

[Marko23 10]

Eur/USD at B/E for Short

[fxThunder 10]

GU - long setup again.

 

Cheers,

eNQ

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Folks,

 

I doubt that this low is going to hold, but if it does, here is how I see the 6B/GBPUSD at the moment - first chart is 60 minute to show a prior break up level, second chart is 15 minute.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Kiwi 16]

Emini,

 

I thought the method required at least a higher low and a high to break. What I see in that chart looks more like a knife, falling??

[thalestrader 14]

I doubt that this low is going to hold ...

 

I don't think it even held long enough fo me to press the submit button on that post.

 

Here are nearby levels of interest viewed on the 60 minute chart (this whole area is a support zone - so a bottom, if it is coming, could come in anywhere here).

 

Remember, tomorrow is NFP, and while buyers are still buyers and sellers are still sellers and TA is still TA, currencies take on a peculiar skittishness in the 24-48 hours prior to NFP. Wait for your opportunities and insist that they be clear as an upstate New York river (where you can count the scales on a fish that's 20 feet below the surface). Be patient - you do not need to trade 27 times each day ... you do not even need to trade every day. Protect your capital and you will protect yourself.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[BlowFish 10]

I

 

4. Its good practice just trading a plan. It is very much like the exercise described in the back of “Trading In The Zone”

 

 

It's worth spending a bit of time making sure you actually do the exercise properly. (I'll admit I failed a couple of times in the past). The idea is not to be profitable but to be consistent. Bearing that in mind it makes sense to have a simple clear un ambiguous plan. It's about building confidence in yourself not the plan.

 

Having said that, elsewhere Thales has pointed out how having a good plan can make the process of building trust in it and then yourself a lot easier. This can present a bit of a catch 22 for traders. By doing Douglas' exercise at least it allows you to judge the plan (as well as your consistency). If you tinker as you go along or have ambiguities from the start any benefits will be lost Just saying from bitter past experience!

[Marko23 10]

Three simple methods to estimate a target

 

 

ADD: out with +20.

Edited January 7, 2010 by Marko23
Short closed.

[BlowFish 10]

Hopefully this rambling tirade makes sense to at least one person out there. Off to shovel more snow!

 

Cheers!

 

Looks like you have made some of Al Brookes writings well and truly your own. Great post . Certainly gives some clues to why PA 'works'.

[thalestrader 14]

GU - long setup again.

 

Cheers,

eNQ

 

 

Emini,

 

I thought the method required at least a higher low and a high to break. What I see in that chart looks more like a knife, falling??

 

EmNQ,

 

When you post your screen shots you should try to include the price and time scales to make it easier for others to see where you were looking. If I have guessed correctly at where you see this long opportunity, the I am with kiwi - there has not been a L-H-HL where you were. Your trigger point is the high of a bar that was struck before the low. The high point trigger must print after the ultimate low prints.

 

What you are trying to do, I believe, is similar the pinbar post. Here is Kiwi's post that includes a pic of the chart I made at the time. I think you will find this helps explain what kiwi and I are saying here about your trade.

 

This picture is an excellent example of clear thinking --- especially the last one.

 

Thales once again applies a 123break philosophy ... to a pin bar ... in a way that would differentiate one that was likely to take off fast from one more likely to backtrack or fail. This logic is something I used to use in sub-timeframe tests to decide where my entry should be and is excellent.

 

I must say, having read it so clearly, I am going to do a little work to show which pinbars meet the criteria and which dont. Food for thought Thales.

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[fxThunder 10]

Emini,

 

I thought the method required at least a higher low and a high to break. What I see in that chart looks more like a knife, falling??

 

Hi Kiwi,

 

I saw a 123 develop on a lower timeframe at a big support level, hence I was ready to get long then.

 

The setup was similar to the posts by Thales just after yours - it did not work but I am certainly only considering longs here currently.

 

Cheers,

eNQ

 

EDIT:

 

Just saw the post by Thales now = thanks for your input guys, really appreciate it - that is the reason I am prepared to call the setups out here when I can.

[thalestrader 14]

Here is how the GBPUSD has been loking to me over last few minutes ...

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

USDJPY monthly chart view ...

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

EURJPY with a measured move target ...

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Marko23 10]

Target reached, got out too early.

 

[Cory2679 11]

By the way, what happened to Cory today?

I was out of commission yesterday. I'm back now.

[thalestrader 14]

6B came within a tick of my stop and is now on the plus side. The EURJPY trade I just took out back and shot for a break even effort. I also did the GBPUSD in the micro account, cam within the spread of knowcking me out there too but reversed. I closed it out for 4/10ths of pip. I'm geting a lot of slippage at FXCM again - up to half a tick over and above the spread, even on the EURUSD and GBPUSD. I don't mind slippage. It is a fact of life. But I decided to do the exact same trades in a demo account today, and the demo was filled on the stop exactly, but the live account FXCM took another 6/10ths of a pip on the entry.

 

In my next life, I want to come bak as an FX market maker.

 

Not a terribly pleasant morning so far, but you'll have days like this.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Cory2679 11]

Possible EJ short...

[ziebarf 10]

6B came within a tick of my stop and is now on the plus side. The EURJPY trade I just took out back and shot for a break even effort. I also did the GBPUSD in the micro account, cam within the spread of knowcking me out there too but reversed. I closed it out for 4/10ths of pip. I'm geting a lot of slippage at FXCM again - up to half a tick over and above the spread, even on the EURUSD and GBPUSD. I don't mind slippage. It is a fact of life. But I decided to do the exact same trades in a demo account today, and the demo was filled on the stop exactly, but the live account FXCM took another 6/10ths of a pip on the entry.

 

In my next life, I want to come bak as an FX market maker.

 

Not a terribly pleasant morning so far, but you'll have days like this.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

If only the mirco currency futures had good volume, it would be so much nicer than messing with bucket shop spreads. It would be the ultimate learning tool!

[thalestrader 14]

I have two orders in right now - a buy stop on the USDJPY with a very tight stop (if this triggers, I want no part of it if it does not follow through immediately without looking back).

 

I also am looking long again on the 6B/GBPUSD woth a buy stop above the morning (NY morning) high.

 

You could find shorts on either of these as well.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[daedalus 10]

Went a little on the "i'm stupid" scale today and tried to buy inside an obvious wedge and got nailed for my stupidity causing my first down day of the year and first losing trade. Caught +4 (should've been a tad more +6ish) on a great 6B trade but then started thinking like and idiot and took the 6J trade. Oh well, I won't do it again.

 

Reasons to avoid "wedge breaks":

 

- You can't trust the breakout because there are too many layered areas of stops to run, thus as we discussed yesterday the breaks typically aren't not clean and have the ability to fake you out. And yes, i'm dumb enough to get faked out when I know better. Don't be like me kids - you see price wedging you WALK.

 

Off to shovel yet more snow. -40 degree wind chills today through the weekend. I think i'll be staying home

[MBAGearhead 10]

Been following along for awhile and thought I should throw up a chart so I'm not just a lurker! I didn't trade this but the 1-2-3's were picture perfect on both the long and short side in the mini-Russell today. I enjoy your thread Thales! Keep up the good work!

[Cory2679 11]

Possible EJ short...

 

I didn't take this. Started to get choppy.

 

I had my eye some things today that never filled. I got on a little late...around 9am or a little after (eastern time).

 

So, no trades for me today.

 

Yesterday I didn't get on until almost 11am and I had a stomach ache the night before that kept me up so I just took the morning off.

 

However, last night, I had gone short on the EJ (longer term, PT1 @ about 60 ticks), and had thought I moved my stop to BE but I made a careless mistake and entered the wrong number. Anyways, the end of the story is that my account is now at $201.19.

 

I'm VERY, VERY angry with myself. If there was an award for the dumbest mistake a trader's ever made, I truly think I've earned it. It's probably best that I didn't take any trades today (due to my mental state after seeing the loss) and that I just demo trade tomorrow and have the weekend to recharge and get back on track.

 

I think my state of mind is probably the worst possible for trading right now. I'm a mess. :o I had my mistakes from Tuesday, which at least still left me up about 15% for the week. But, now this?! I think "bad" emotions in trading can definitely have a snowball effect.

 

I've decided to refund my account to put it at $250 again, and "start over" next week. This week has been an utter disaster. I'm sure anyone who was cheering me on in my progress has got to be pretty disappointed.

 

BUT, I'm going to try to stay positive...I think there's a lot for me to be positive about right now in my trading. Starting FRESH next week!

 

-Cory

Edited January 7, 2010 by Cory2679

[thalestrader 14]

... and had thought I moved my stop to BE but I made a careless mistake and entered the wrong number

 

If you think you're the first guy ever to do that, you're nuts.

 

Shake it off, and forget about it. Just don't forget the lesson, like I did six or seven times before I learned always to double chack my orders before I hit enter, and certainly before logging off the trading platform. Now that I've learned my lesson (finally) I haven't had a problem in over a week.

 

Tomorrow is NFP, so it is probably a good day to demo trade for you anyway.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[forrestang 10]

I didn't take this. Started to get choppy.

 

I had my eye some things today that never filled. I got on a little late...around 9am or a little after (eastern time).

 

So, no trades for me today.

 

Yesterday I didn't get on until almost 11am and I had a stomach ache the night before that kept me up so I just took the morning off.

 

However, last night, I had gone short on the EJ (longer term, PT1 @ about 60 ticks), and had thought I moved my stop to BE but I made a careless mistake and entered the wrong number. Anyways, the end of the story is that my account is now at $201.19.

 

I'm VERY, VERY angry with myself. If there was an award for the dumbest mistake a trader's ever made, I truly think I've earned it. It's probably best that I didn't take any trades today (due to my mental state after seeing the loss) and that I just demo trade tomorrow and have the weekend to recharge and get back on track.

 

I think my state of mind is probably the worst possible for trading right now. I'm a mess. :o I had my mistakes from Tuesday, which at least still left me up about 15% for the week. But, now this?! I think "bad" emotions in trading can definitely have a snowball effect.

 

I've decided to refund my account to put it at $250 again, and "start over" next week. This week has been an utter disaster. I'm sure anyone who was cheering me on in my progress has got to be pretty disappointed.

 

BUT, I'm going to try to stay positive...I think there's a lot for me to be positive about right now in my trading. Starting FRESH next week!

 

-Cory

 

That sounds almost EXACTLY like the story I posted a while back in this thread.

[sevensa 10]

I've decided to refund my account to put it at $250 again, and "start over" next week.

 

If it was me, I wouldn't do it. I would write it off as a bad mistake and vow to not let it get me down and recover from it. Imagine how rewarding and how much confidence it will give you if you can recover from this and get your account in the plus side again. This account isn't really about the money anyway is it? It is to prove to yourself that you can do it in real time with real money. If you start over each time you make a mistake, I think this defeats the purpose. Mistakes happen. Get up, dust yourself off and do better.

 

Just my two cents. I know I don't contribute much to this thread, so feel free to ignore promptly.