Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

thalestrader

Reading Charts in Real Time

Recommended Posts

While I'm in no ways a trade guru I think some people new to this idea may be "shotgunning" the approach a bit too much and applying the logic to EVERY wiggle in the market. And while this will work to some extent because we are still following the underlying logic of the market it may not be the best way to approach this. Take a second to consider the underlying logic behind what we are attempting to do and what makes this method work.

 

  • - When we are entering the market the trades that work the best are the trades in which we enter into others failure. Their protective sell stops to lock in profit are getting hit forcing orders into the market that we are taking the other side of... the more sell stops get hit do to an adverse move, the more violent the reaction, and the more money we make.
  • - That being said, the best opportunities are going to be in areas where other traders are going to be trailing their stops. And since they are going to be trailing their stops to pullbacks along the way, we look to enter when the pullbacks become reversals and ride the wave the other direction. Thus, the best opportunities are going to be on swings that have run some distance and have a strong impulse move.
  • - Furthermore, think of the trade in reverse. If the market is downtrending, where would YOU be moving stops to? If you can find that nice pullback that says to you "yup, that's where I would put my protective stop in" then guess what? Others will be doing the same thing. Then all you have to do is wait for their failure (and subsequently your success) to take the market the other direction.
  • - It just seems like a lot of the trades that don't work so well for some people in this thread come from applying the logic to the wrong spot on the chart or the place on the chart where there might be a wiggle of a HL or LH but it wouldn't be convincing enough to make all the other traders out there trail their stops to that point.

 

Its not just WHAT you apply that matters - its WHERE you apply it as well.

 

Take a look at the following example... just todays chart in the 6E on a 233T chart. If you were a trader long in this market where would you be trailing your stops? Its easy to spot the EASY setups when you can wait for them to appear. Wouldn't you rather be waiting to play that textbook LH opportunity? Its when you go looking for stuff, when you start shotgunning the approach at every wiggle on the chart you set yourself up for failure IMHO.

 

Hopefully this rambling tirade makes sense to at least one person out there. Off to shovel more snow! :(

 

Cheers!

1.thumb.png.44b695af67be65e6aac0fc7aa7079862.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This hit home with me (I bet I won't be the only one this makes sense to)

 

I will note that there appears to be another natural spot on your chart where many would have moved a stop (the three hammers and a hangman around 13:25). Interestingly enough, the short here failed and a the subsequent long rallied swiftly into a tripple top after breaking back up past where all the short traders that likely had a stop (above the high of the hangman bar.)

 

Thanks for the insight... it was very valuable to me.

 

snowbird

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
While I'm in no ways a trade guru...

 

I wish I had thought to express that idea in those terms myself. That is an excellent, excellent post, daedalus - one of the best here in a while (and that's including anything I have had to say, that's for sure. This is one of those posts that ought to create a few "a ha" moments out there. If we still had the Post of the Month system here, I'd have nominated this post of yours.

 

Thank you for your effort. This thread will stand or fall based upon the efforts of good folks like you stepping forward and offering your thoughts and insights.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Take a look at the following example... just todays chart in the 6E on a 233T chart. If you were a trader long in this market where would you be trailing your stops? Its easy to spot the EASY setups when you can wait for them to appear. Wouldn't you rather be waiting to play that textbook LH opportunity? Its when you go looking for stuff, when you start shotgunning the approach at every wiggle on the chart you set yourself up for failure IMHO.

 

Hopefully this rambling tirade makes sense to at least one person out there. Off to shovel more snow! :(

 

Cheers!

 

Thanks for your post daedalus.

For the sake of clarity I changed some of your lines. Is this what you meant?

 

Gabe

Edited by Gabe2004

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thanks for your post daedalus.

For the sake of clarity I changed some of your lines. Is this what you meant?

 

Gabe

 

Gabe,

 

Go back to daedalus's post, and read it a few more times.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Edited by thalestrader

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Gabe,

 

You should delete your version of daedalus's chart, and then go back to daedalus's post, and read it a few more times.

 

Please delete your version of daedalus's chart.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Out of courtsey I did but I thought that we learn by asking questions and not by censorship.

 

I think that the black lines were inconsistant.

An explanation rather than a request to remove a chart would have been more helpfull.

 

Gabe

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gabe - I understand what you were saying with the lines. Please note that in my picture the lines with the bubbles attached to them are not to the exact level... (the trade platform wouldn't let me move the anchor point) but they would be at the orange horizontal lines I drew at each stop placement. (1 Tick below that level that is).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thanks for your post daedalus.

For the sake of clarity I changed some of your lines. Is this what you meant?

 

Gabe

 

Gabe,

 

Really focus on this thought from daedalus's post - everything follows from this concept:

 

Take a second to consider the underlying logic behind what we are attempting to do and what makes this method work.

 

[*]- When we are entering the market the trades that work the best are the trades in which we enter into others failure.

 

Simple yet profound in its implications. Get this, and you will be more likely to get "it" as the saying goes.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Gabe,

 

Really focus on this thought from daedalus's post - everything follows from this concept:

 

 

 

Simple yet profound in its implications. Get this, and you will be more likely to get "it" as the saying goes.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

I don't understand why are the black lines not pointing all to the bar that the orange lines originate from? (my chart tried to correct the inconsistancy)

 

I understand the idea of trailing stops of a trade at the marked places and the idea of entering a short at those points because when the stops are hit a move in the direction of the stops will have a tidal wave effect.

 

Gabe

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Out of courtsey I did but I thought that we learn by asking questions and not by censorship.

 

I think that the black lines were inconsistant.

An explanation rather than a request to remove a chart would have been more helpfull.

 

Gabe

 

My concern was where you added blue lines above each high and wrote that "by the same logic each of these is a long entry." 1) That is not the case. Each new high is not necessarily a good entry point, e.g. some highs occur at prior brak down point, and I wouldn't want to initiate a new long at a prior break down point; 2) your note distracts from the logic that daedalus's version shows.

 

If you just want to line up thearrows along the swing lows, that is fine, but you added additional annotations that were not correct and did not accurately convey the same logic that daedalus's post did.

 

I did not give an explanation because I wanted to hurry up and ask you to delete your chart before it would have been too late to do so.

 

I think I have shown that I am not a thread dictator and I am not a censor (other than I ask for no profanity as my daughter does read this thread).

 

I didn't mean any offense. I just think daedalus's chart is an excellent tool for folks learning this approach, and I wouldn't want folks to be confused by your additions. Sort of like I wouldn't want someone to draw a moustache on the Mona Lisa.

 

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=17340&stc=1&d=1262819719

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

5aa70f96d1cd7_MonaLisa2.jpg.c46814ebe0b3ee3cb9e0d43e307c0866.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
While I'm in no ways a trade guru I think some people new to this idea may be "shotgunning" the approach a bit too much and applying the logic to EVERY wiggle in the market. And while this will work to some extent because we are still following the underlying logic of the market it may not be the best way to approach this. Take a second to consider the underlying logic behind what we are attempting to do and what makes this method work.

 

Very nice post Daedalus, I have to agree with Thales on the quality and helpfulness of this post.

 

Thanks,

 

Jands

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
While I'm in no ways a trade guru I think some people new to this idea may be "shotgunning" the approach a bit too much and applying the logic to EVERY wiggle in the market. And while this will work to some extent because we are still following the underlying logic of the market it may not be the best way to approach this. Take a second to consider the underlying logic behind what we are attempting to do and what makes this method work.

 

  • - When we are entering the market the trades that work the best are the trades in which we enter into others failure. Their protective sell stops to lock in profit are getting hit forcing orders into the market that we are taking the other side of... the more sell stops get hit do to an adverse move, the more violent the reaction, and the more money we make.
  • - That being said, the best opportunities are going to be in areas where other traders are going to be trailing their stops. And since they are going to be trailing their stops to pullbacks along the way, we look to enter when the pullbacks become reversals and ride the wave the other direction. Thus, the best opportunities are going to be on swings that have run some distance and have a strong impulse move.
  • - Furthermore, think of the trade in reverse. If the market is downtrending, where would YOU be moving stops to? If you can find that nice pullback that says to you "yup, that's where I would put my protective stop in" then guess what? Others will be doing the same thing. Then all you have to do is wait for their failure (and subsequently your success) to take the market the other direction.
  • - It just seems like a lot of the trades that don't work so well for some people in this thread come from applying the logic to the wrong spot on the chart or the place on the chart where there might be a wiggle of a HL or LH but it wouldn't be convincing enough to make all the other traders out there trail their stops to that point.

 

Its not just WHAT you apply that matters - its WHERE you apply it as well.

 

Take a look at the following example... just todays chart in the 6E on a 233T chart. If you were a trader long in this market where would you be trailing your stops? Its easy to spot the EASY setups when you can wait for them to appear. Wouldn't you rather be waiting to play that textbook LH opportunity? Its when you go looking for stuff, when you start shotgunning the approach at every wiggle on the chart you set yourself up for failure IMHO.

 

Hopefully this rambling tirade makes sense to at least one person out there. Off to shovel more snow! :(

 

Cheers!

 

Now that makes a lot of sense and clears a few things up for me. Keep ramblin im all ears, thanks a lot for your thoughts!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2) Elliot wave is a viable theory, so long as you use it for distinguishing tradable moves from corrective moves

 

If someone has a chance, could someone explain the distinguishment? I read through the elliot wave paper posted and some posts here and I am just not understanding something about this. Maybe I am overthinking it. :crap:

Thanks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I didn't mean any offense.

 

Appologie accepted :)

 

I still think that we should try and be accurate with our marking ( I agree that I should not have added my blue lines) but the black lines should be consistant.

 

I for one was confused and decided to clarify.

 

Realizing that I don't have the intellectual flexibility of some other people around here, the only way I can make sure that I understand what is going on is by drawing and asking questions.

 

I'll assume then that ALL those black lines were pointing to the origins of the orange lines.

 

Thanks for every one's patience with MY RAMBLINGS :)

 

Gabe

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Gabe - I understand what you were saying with the lines. Please note that in my picture the lines with the bubbles attached to them are not to the exact level... (the trade platform wouldn't let me move the anchor point) but they would be at the orange horizontal lines I drew at each stop placement. (1 Tick below that level that is).

 

Sorry that I did not see this answer of yours (had 2 instances of TL open).

 

Thanks for the explanation.

 

Gabe

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Maybe I am overthinking it.

 

Probably.

 

Why not consider reading Hill's EW chapter, and also his discussion of thrusts. Also, there was a ridiculous thread here some time ago about making $800 a day one tick at a time or something like that. The original poster had James close the thread, but there was a post or two by bakrob99 that I have recommended several times here in this thread that might be helpful. Don't let yourself get mired down in wavespeak. But to try to really understand the difference between price impulsing or thrusting from one level of rest to its next level of rest. Levels of rest are characterized by flat, choppy, overlapping waves of price which often sees range contraction as well.

 

Ok, I went looking for them. I'd quote them here but for the fact that the thread from which they come is closed, and I am unable to quote them. But there is some good stuff here:

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f229/idea-850-two-1-tick-trades-6862.html#post76559

 

This one is a real gem:

 

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f229/idea-850-two-1-tick-trades-6862.html#post77616

 

Now, for any of you who do finally take the time to go and read bakrob99's posts, if you find them as well written and true and as useful as I did, be polite and do the rightthing and leave him a thanks. He shared in his two posts, especially his second, a great deal more generously than most who happen by this or any other forum.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Aud/Usd

---------------

Long Trade Se-up

 

----------------------------------------

looking to go long @ 9170

 

 

 

Looks like you hit your target - nice trade!

 

I do not typically watch the AUDUSD, and I had a short presentation briefly this afternoon (first chart), but soon after it turned to a long (second chart). My profit targets were not as aggressive as were yours (see third chart).

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=17345&stc=1&d=1262828280

 

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=17346&stc=1&d=1262828241

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=17347&stc=1&d=1262828241

Again, nice trade!

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

5aa70f96ede1f_2010-01-06AUDUSD1.thumb.jpg.ef003df9bce65d92084d46a76635ea13.jpg

5aa70f96f2fcf_2010-01-06AUDUSD2.thumb.jpg.de10b25805d588fc494953281837c389.jpg

5aa70f9705963_2010-01-06AUDUSD3.thumb.jpg.0e94f0d22a43d595d5c3c8aaa64baeab.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi Folks,

 

Don't let the fact that this is Robert Prechter keep you from reading this short little interview. It is about trading, and succeeding at it, not Elliot Wave.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

That was a great article for me since I am currently working hard at formulating my trading rules.

Thanks for sharing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If someone has a chance, could someone explain the distinguishment? I read through the elliot wave paper posted and some posts here and I am just not understanding something about this. Maybe I am overthinking it. :crap:

Thanks.

 

As a rule of thumb: " b 2 4 x " don't trade any of them.

 

The x is a synonym for the end of the alfabet, in Prechter's terms.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 8th April 2025.   Markets Rebound Cautiously as US-China Tariff Tensions Deepen     Global markets staged a tentative recovery on Tuesday following a wave of volatility sparked by escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. The Asia-Pacific region showed signs of stability after a chaotic start to the week—though some pockets remained under pressure. Taiwan’s Taiex dropped 4.4%, dragged lower by losses in tech heavyweight TSMC. The world’s largest chipmaker fell another 4% on Tuesday and has now slumped 13.5% since April 2, when US President Donald Trump first unveiled what he called ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs.   However, broader sentiment across the region turned more positive, with several markets rebounding sharply after Monday’s dramatic sell-offs. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged over 6% in early trading, rebounding from an 18-month low. South Korea’s Kospi rose marginally, and Australia’s ASX 200 gained 1.9%, driven by strength in mining stocks. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.6%, though still far from recovering from Monday’s 13.2% crash—its worst day since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. China’s Shanghai Composite added 0.9%.   In Europe, DAX and FTSE 100 are up more than 1% in opening trade. EU Commission President von der Leyen repeated yesterday that the EU had offered reciprocal zero tariffs on manufactured goods previously and continues to stand by that offer. Others are also trying again to talk to Trump to get some sort of agreement that limits the impact.   Much of the rally appeared to be driven by dip-buying, as well as hopes that the intensifying trade war could still be defused through negotiations.   China Strikes Back: ‘We Will Fight to the End’   Tensions reached a boiling point after Trump threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on all Chinese imports unless Beijing rolled back its retaliatory measures by April 8. ‘If China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long-term trading abuses by tomorrow... the United States will impose additional tariffs on China of 50%,’ Trump declared on social media.   If implemented, the new tariffs would bring total US duties on Chinese goods to a staggering 124%, factoring in the existing 20%, the 34% recently announced, and the proposed 50%.   In response, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a stern warning, stating: ‘The US threat to escalate tariffs is a mistake on top of a mistake... If the US insists on its own way, China will fight to the end.’ The ministry also called for equal and respectful dialogue, though signs of compromise on either side remain scarce.   Beijing acted quickly to contain a market fallout. State funds intervened to support equities, and the People’s Bank of China set the yuan fixing at its weakest level since September 2023 to boost export competitiveness. Additionally, five-year interest rate swaps in China fell to their lowest levels since 2020, indicating potential for further monetary easing.   Trump Talks Tough on EU Too   Trump’s hardline approach extended beyond China. Speaking at a press conference, he rejected the European Union’s offer to eliminate tariffs on cars and industrial goods, accusing the bloc of ‘being very bad to us.’ He insisted that Europe would need to source its energy from the US, claiming the US could ‘knock off $350 billion in one week.’   The EU, meanwhile, backed away from a proposed 50% retaliatory tariff on American whiskey, opting instead for 25% duties on selected US goods in response to Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs.     Volatile Wall Street Adds to the Drama   Wall Street experienced wild swings on Monday as investors processed the rapidly evolving trade conflict. The S&P 500 briefly fell 4.7% before rebounding 3.4%, nearly erasing its losses in what could have been its biggest one-day jump in years—if it had held. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank by as much as 1,700 points early in the day but later climbed nearly 900 points before closing 349 points lower, down 0.9%. The Nasdaq ended up 0.1%.   The brief rally was fueled by a false rumour that Trump was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs—rumours that the White House quickly labelled ‘fake news.’ The market's sharp reaction underscored how desperate investors are for any sign that tensions might ease.   Oil Markets in Focus: Goldman Sachs Revises Forecasts   Crude prices also reflected the uncertainty, with US crude briefly dipping below $60 per barrel for the first time since 2021. As of early Tuesday, Brent crude was trading at $64.72, while WTI hovered around $61.26.   Goldman Sachs, in a note dated April 7, lowered its average price forecasts for Brent and WTI through 2025 and 2026, citing mounting recession risks and the potential for higher-than-expected supply from OPEC+.       Under a base-case scenario where the US avoids a recession and tariffs are reduced significantly before the April 9 implementation date, Goldman sees Brent at $62 per barrel and WTI at $58 by December 2025. These figures fall further to $55 and $51, respectively, by the end of 2026. This outlook also assumes moderate output increases from eight OPEC+ countries, with incremental boosts of 130,000–140,000 barrels per day in June and July.   However, should the US slip into a typical recession and OPEC production aligns with the bank’s baseline assumptions, Brent could retreat to $58 by the end of this year and to $50 by December 2026.   In a more bearish scenario involving a global GDP slowdown and no change to OPEC+ output levels, Brent prices might fall to $54 by year-end and $45 by late 2026. The most extreme projection—based on a simultaneous economic downturn and a full reversal of OPEC+ production cuts—would see Brent plunge to below $40 per barrel by the end of 2026.   Goldman noted that oil prices could outperform forecasts significantly if there was a dramatic shift in tariff policy and a surprise in global demand recovery.   Cautious Optimism, But Warnings Persist   With both Washington and Beijing showing no signs of backing down, markets are likely to remain volatile in the days ahead. Investors now turn their attention to upcoming trade meetings and policy decisions, hoping for clarity in what has become one of the most unpredictable trading environments in recent years.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • CVNA Carvana stock watch, rebound to 166.56 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?CVNA
    • CVNA Carvana stock watch, rebound to 166.56 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?CVNA
    • CVNA Carvana stock watch, rebound to 166.56 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?CVNA
    • CVNA Carvana stock watch, rebound to 166.56 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?CVNA
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.