Reading Charts in Real Time

[Don4 10]

Please, if sombody sees anything that I did wrong in the trades please let me know.

 

 

Thanks

Don

[FX_Cowboy 10]

Here's a trade that I think is similar to what has been posted previously. Blue line is entry, red is stop, green lines are TP1 and TP2. If the trade isn't triggered, a reversal of this (the short of that bar), looks good to me too.

[thalestrader 14]

Please, if sombody sees anything that I did wrong in the trades please let me know.

 

Don't you look both ways before you cross the street? When you see nothing but traffic, its best to stay on the sidewalk until it is safe to cross.

 

If you are only going to look at the EURUSD, that is fine. I think focusing on one market is the best way to get a handle on this approach. But you do need to then wait for price to indicate it is ready to move. I also think the 15 minute time frame may be easier to work with initially.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Last look at the EURUSD before I turn in for the night. I'll see you folks in NY.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Just so we do not confuse how I presented it with the way in which some pursue it ...

 

Here is a suggestion (and this isn't just for you, Dinero, but anyone who wants to learn to trade price without using indicators and opinions and conjectures and unsubstantiated and unnecessary theories): Why not take a week, and watch a 15 minute chart of the EURJPY or the EURUSD or the 6J or the 6E, and just focus on what happens if you bought the break up of every low-high-higher low-higher high pivot sequence and sold short every high-low-lower high-lower low pivot sequence.

 

Just mark off the high and low pivots, and make it mechanical if you'd like: Buy stop above a high, with an arbitrary 15 or 20 tick stop loss, and a 30 tick Profit target. Just go ahead and see how you do. Paper trade it - as I stated elsewhere, paper trading is marginally useful, and here is an example of where it can be useful.

[thalestrader 14]

Last look at the EURUSD before I turn in for the night. I'll see you folks in NY.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Now it gets interesting ...

 

I'll get to bed sometime tonight.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

One last look at the EURUSD and then I am definitely done for the night.

 

Now,let me ask you all (and I would love to wake up to some posted answers as this is not meant to be a strictly rhetorical question): Did it take any special talent or any mystical and magical powers to see that the EURUSD had settled into a tight range of overlapping price movement? Does it take any occult powers or insightful interpretive powers to see the opportunity offered by setting stop entry orders on either side of that range with profit targets at the nest S/R levels?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[MidKnight 12]

Did it take any special talent or any mystical and magical powers to see that the EURUSD had settled into a tight range of overlapping price movement?

 

It would have taken me considerably longer to see it as a range than you have marked above - probably not until 2 bars after the box low. I'm not suggesting that what you marked is when you noticed it, just commenting on when I may have started to consider it was in a tight range.

 

Does it take any occult powers or insightful interpretive powers to see the opportunity offered by setting stop entry orders on either side of that range with profit targets at the nest S/R levels?

 

Yes, I think so. I am interested in knowing why you did not see the same 'opportunity' on GU? It would have yielded a stop out to the upside and probably a small stop out from the downside. I only ask because I know GU is one of your pairs that you are watching and you no doubt have watched it form that pattern tonight except you don't seem interested in the same 'opportunity'.

 

With kind regards,

MK

Edited December 1, 2009 by MidKnight

[RichardTodd 10]

Does it take any occult powers or insightful interpretive powers to see the opportunity offered by setting stop entry orders on either side of that range with profit targets at the nest S/R levels?

 

... and when I opened my 5-minute chart, it had bounced off support so fast I actually jumped in long after what I considered to be a small-scale (pink) HL. I have found drawing in the large-scale (blue) and occasional small-scale (pink) swings a very useful exercise. I really can't thank you enough for inspiring such a simple practice.

Edited December 1, 2009 by RichardTodd

[RichardTodd 10]

I ask because you seem to be talking about one style of teaching/learning and its not necessarily completely applicable to trading.

 

I was really just trying to point out that there is a huge chasm between concepts you grasp and skills that you master.

 

I thought most people would remember that driving was awkward and error-prone initially, but quickly mastered via guided practice. No one expects to read a forum thread and then know how to drive a car, but sometimes people expect to read a forum thread and know how to trade. So I thought the example would make it clear.

 

 

Over time, less intellectual and more effective techniques were developed and an important element was less talk and more modeling and shaping. Watch, do, "try pressing down a little with your big toe", wow. Very personal and very effective.

 

I guess I would say "less intellectual and more experience-oriented," if I understand you correctly. It sounds to me like we are in agreement. What in your opinion can be done in this forum to make the process here more effective?

[Gabe2004 10]

Potential EJ short but maybe too much resistance below

 

Gabe

[Gabe2004 10]

Potential EJ short but maybe too much resistance below

 

Gabe

 

Adjusted TP1 (made a mistake before) and set the BE point.

 

Gabe

[BlowFish 10]

I'm still new at this...and I have to say I honestly don't see any particaular pattern, other than the H, L, LH pattern that everyone's always looking for...but for some reason I get the impression you might be alluding to something else...something I may not even be familiar with...

 

But if it isn't, and you're just talking about H, L, LH, then that is obviously there...but I feel like that's just too obvious...

 

I haven't taken any trades. I actually just got on here...overslept a bit... :embarassed:[

 

This might well have been answered (Im playing thread catch up) and I might be on the wrong track completely.....but with that caveat take a look at the posts Thales made after the elliot wave document. Many people have described this behaviour in a variety of ways..... whilst price was making hh's it was having a lot more difficulty doing so, the bulls are running out of puff (for the moment).

[Gabe2004 10]

Adjusted TP1 (made a mistake before) and set the BE point.

 

Gabe

 

Not comfortable with the short.

Moved the SL down.

 

Gabe

 

PS I am not in this trade.

[BlowFish 10]

Here you go Cory...some patterns.

 

Im not a great one at drawing but here is an interesting variation where the LL occurs before the LH. This sort of pattern would probably have me looking at a faster chart for entry close to where the LH might be anticipated.

[BlowFish 10]

Second trade Stoped Out.

 

[ATTACH]16086[/ATTACH]

 

[ATTACH]16087[/ATTACH]

 

Thanks

Don

 

Hi Don, would you have still been in with your management? I guess you would have been short ahead of the break too if you even took the trade? Cheers.

[Gabe2004 10]

Not comfortable with the short.

Moved the SL down.

 

Gabe

 

PS I am not in this trade.

 

Stop hit.

This would be an example of a failed trade.

 

Gabe

[BlowFish 10]

One last look at the EURUSD and then I am definitely done for the night.

 

Now,let me ask you all (and I would love to wake up to some posted answers as this is not meant to be a strictly rhetorical question): Did it take any special talent or any mystical and magical powers to see that the EURUSD had settled into a tight range of overlapping price movement? Does it take any occult powers or insightful interpretive powers to see the opportunity offered by setting stop entry orders on either side of that range with profit targets at the nest S/R levels?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

One of the better things about old JR's work is that he provides some simple 'rules' for spotting range bound markets. One of the ideas he introduces is a 'measuring bar' the first bar of that range was such a bar. Until price can make it out of the confines of that bar it is clearly not making any directional headway. Matching H L or Closes. Alternating closes... all objective ways to say the market is currently sideways and maybe helpful to those that can not just see it.

[thalestrader 14]

Yes, I think so. I am interested in knowing why you did not see the same 'opportunity' on GU? It would have yielded a stop out to the upside and probably a small stop out from the downside. I only ask because I know GU is one of your pairs that you are watching and you no doubt have watched it form that pattern tonight except you don't seem interested in the same 'opportunity'.

 

You apparently missed this post:

 

Right now we have a buy stop on the GU at 1.6463 and a sell stop at 1.6426.

 

There was no stop out to the upside as price never offered at 1.6463 at FXCM, and according to the Gain data on Ninjatrader, it printed a high at 1.6460. Perhaps some would have been stopped in long at their brokers, but if you are going to trade at a bucket shop, you have to take into account your bucket shop's data and spread, not mine. Also, I use the Ninjatrader charts to illustrate what I am looking at because FXCM's charts are awful. But I set my orders according to the maker of the market we are trading, not Gain. There will at times be differences of as much as 3 ticks between what I post based upon Gain and what I am trading based upon FXCM.

 

There were three trades to the short side. The first two we took, and both were stopped after hitting our BE adjust. I was gone by the time the third trade would have become evident to me, and that would have been a losing effort. But, for the sake of argument, let us call the first and third short trades losses. Let us say each was hit for a full stop of -20 and -25. So there were three trades, all short, for a net loss of -45 ticks.

 

The next opportunity would be the long on the other side of the prior range. That trade hit both PTs for +70 on hald and +100 on the other half for a net of +85 ticks.

 

So, had you watched just this one market taking the opportunities as they appeared on the 15 minute chart, you would have made 4 trades (which is a lot for the time period covered), with 2 losses, 1 break even, and one winning trade. Let's count the break even trade as a loss, and say you had only a 25% win rate yesterday. You still came out with a net of +40 ticks.

 

Now, Midk, I do not know why you are coming across with such a bitterness. I feel I have made every effort to help you.

 

The one suggestion I have made to everyone trying to learn to apply this approach is that they pick one of market, follow it for one week on a fifteen minute chart, and paper trade it. From your posts, I can only assume that you have not taken this suggestion.

 

You are being more than a little unfair to me. You have tried to do what I do your way. It hasn't worked for you. If you wish to be fair, why not try to do what I do my way, at least for a week. Unless and until you do, your negative attitude is unjustified.

 

You are free to trade anyway in which you wish. I continue to hold this thread open to other approaches, including variations of mine. But if you are going to do things differently, you cannot in fairness then turn around and say that my way is somehow to blame.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Edited December 1, 2009 by thalestrader

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Folks,

 

This is the ES. I post these two charts not because I traded either of these situations, but to illustrate a few points that I have made here in the thread.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[BlowFish 10]

Slightly off topic do you trade through Gain as well as FXCM? Do you need a funded account to try Ninja with them? (guess a visit to there website would reveal the answer to that )

[traderbrazil 10]

Hi Thales,

 

My first post around here.

I've read the first 60 pages of the thread (planning to read the rest on the following days).

 

Since yesterday I actually started looking at the current posts regarding present price action to get a real-time feeling of the strategy presented.

I have a question regarding post 2044 (maybe this was covered on the posts I skipped earlier). When do you actually decide to move your stops to BE and not use the original "natural stop"?

 

Thanks for your feedback!

 

Best wishes,

Leandro

 

PS: Thank you for all the effort dedicated to the thread.

[Gabe2004 10]

Potential EJ Long.

Actually a better entry would be off the 1H at the level which is marked on the 15min chart as the move SL to BE.

 

Gabe

[thalestrader 14]

I am interested in knowing why you did not see the same 'opportunity' on GU? ... I only ask because I know GU is one of your pairs that you are watching and you no doubt have watched it form that pattern tonight except you don't seem interested in the same 'opportunity'.

 

 

I turned in late last night, and I saw this on the EJ before shutting down. I set a sell stop at 130.84 with a 40 tick PT, and I set a buy stop at 131.30 with a 40 tick PT. I have attached a chart and the PnL in ticks from that trade. I was asleep when it triggered, I was asleep whent the PT was filled. Were there other opportunities during that time? You bet. I cannot catch them all, and I certainly cannot post them all. (As a side note, I was going to post this last night, and I drew in the PTs in the manner I did because I was going to illustrate how I select PT's based on prior S/R. I did not end up posting this chart last night because I allowed myself to get distracted by Don's post of his losing 5 minute EU trades).

 

The short triggered and hit +40, the long did not trigger.

 

I do not post every trade I make here. And I do not trade every opportunity that presents itself if two or more show up simultaneously.

 

I was showing the EU last night in response to Don's posts. Don, like you, does things differently. That is fine. But doing it differently while passing it off as the same in what seems at times as an attempt to discredit the approach is disingenuous.

 

Last night, I saw one potential trade on the 15 minute EU during the time that Don was trading for two losses on the 5 minute. The trade I saw was a long. It did not hit the full stop, though it would have been a losing effort (I never said that there would be no losing trades). It gave ample opportunity to cut it lose for a negligible loss.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Cory2679 11]

Potential GU short...