Reading Charts in Real Time

[Cory2679 11]

Looks like the BP (EDIT: GBP/USD) may be able to push up to 1.6640...just broke some resistance...I almost went long with a buy stop @1.6576, but at one point when I looked at my DOM, there was a 4 tick spread for a moment...no thanks. I think I'll just stick to trading in the morning.

 

I almost went short as well, because there looked to be a double top forming, but that went on to break the high, which would have triggered the long at 76.

 

No actual trades though, just observations. I think I'm calling it quits now...I'll get started early tomorrow...

 

As of now, it's not really exploding up or anything...oh well, not my concern!

 

Looks like the break didn't stick, and it soon reversed. Based on the PA, I'd like to think that would have been a break-even trade for me.

 

There were some short opportunities, shorter and longer term, as a result of the bounce off the resistance, but I was not up then...

[Gabe2004 10]

They might not get it exact, but they generally have the right idea...they don't predict 100 degree weather on a day there's a blizzard...(of course that's extreme, but you know what I mean...)

 

I think that if meterologists could bet each day on whether it was going to rain or not, I think they would be wildly profitable in the long run.

 

This is an interesting random discussion, because I met a trader from Tudor via video conference, and he actually employed 2 meteorologists to help him at his trading desk (commodities that are strongly influenced by the weather situation)... He was actually featured in Trader magazine in the 30 under 30 issue...I can't remember his name right now...

 

Employing the meteorologist sounds like a good idea but here in Toronto where I live sometimes they call for a snow storm of 6 inches or more and nothing happens.

 

Gabe

[forrestang 10]

Not as though this is a big deal, but whether or not one says 'predict' the future, or 'anticipate' a certain thing happening, or an 'educated guess' is just a matter of semantics. In that it's just how one chooses to phrase a phenomenon.

 

The point is that we ALL take some guess as to where we think price is going to move, and place a trade based on that belief. That's the ONLY way we can make a profit. Whether you call it a 'prediction' or an 'educated guess' or 'anticipation' has no bearing whatsoever on whether or not a profit is made or if the trade selection was logical.

 

I think it just sounds cool to say things like, "I don't predict where the market is going, I just react to what it does," is just one of those trader cliches that sounds awesome and mystical.

[Gabe2004 10]

EJ at the moment.

 

Gabe

 

PS 1st tartget hit.

would have moved SL to BE +

 

To be clear - I am not in this trade.

Edited November 30, 2009 by Gabe2004

[Cory2679 11]

Currently short GU (6B)...PT at 1.6403...had a print of 1.6404...then bounced off...my stop is at 1 tick better than BE (to cover commission)...sorry not real time...I'll post a chart in a few minutes...

[Gabe2004 10]

EJ at the moment.

 

Gabe

 

PS 1st tartget hit.

would have moved SL to BE +

 

To be clear - I am not in this trade.

 

Based on the 5 min I would have lowered my STP again.

 

Gabe

[Gabe2004 10]

Based on the 5 min I would have lowered my STP again.

 

Gabe

2nd target hit

 

Gabe

[johnjohn1hew 10]

I'm still new at this...and I have to say I honestly don't see any particaular pattern, other than the H, L, LH pattern that everyone's always looking for...but for some reason I get the impression you might be alluding to something else...something I may not even be familiar with...

 

But if it isn't, and you're just talking about H, L, LH, then that is obviously there...but I feel like that's just too obvious...

 

I haven't taken any trades. I actually just got on here...overslept a bit... :embarassed:[

 

Here you go Cory...some patterns.

[Cory2679 11]

Currently short GU (6B)...PT at 1.6403...had a print of 1.6404...then bounced off...my stop is at 1 tick better than BE (to cover commission)...sorry not real time...I'll post a chart in a few minutes...

 

Made my second live trade with this approach! Another winner!

 

(My first was last night, which I posted on here.)

 

I got short for a small move on the GU.

 

Price had broken through my drawn support and came back up, so I set my sell stop one tick below the low that had broken through my support...

 

Sorry not real time...I'll try to do better...I'm just starting live so I'm just really focused on the price and don't want to worry about posting it...

 

(I made the previous post so it was semi-real time. )

[johnjohn1hew 10]

Made my second live trade with this approach! Another winner!

 

(My first was last night, which I posted on here.)

 

I got short for a small move on the GU.

 

Price had broken through my drawn support and came back up, so I set my sell stop one tick below the low that had broken through my support...

 

Sorry not real time...I'll try to do better...I'm just starting live so I'm just really focused on the price and don't want to worry about posting it...

 

(I made the previous post so it was semi-real time. )

 

Funny, cause that is exactly what i am trading, but i'm riding it.

[hunnybunny 10]

In my experience, meteorologists have a worse track record than 50/50

 

Gabe

 

and economists?

 

Great to see you folks making nice money on your trades!

[Cory2679 11]

Currently in JPY/USD short...bounced off resistance (thick red line), printed a lower high...

 

Not looking too great at the moment...still in, though...this will be it for me today...

 

-Cory

[jonbig04 10]

Not as though this is a big deal, but whether or not one says 'predict' the future, or 'anticipate' a certain thing happening, or an 'educated guess' is just a matter of semantics. In that it's just how one chooses to phrase a phenomenon.

 

The point is that we ALL take some guess as to where we think price is going to move, and place a trade based on that belief. That's the ONLY way we can make a profit. Whether you call it a 'prediction' or an 'educated guess' or 'anticipation' has no bearing whatsoever on whether or not a profit is made or if the trade selection was logical.

 

I think it just sounds cool to say things like, "I don't predict where the market is going, I just react to what it does," is just one of those trader cliches that sounds awesome and mystical.

 

IMO there is a reason the phrase "react don't predict" is a cliche. The same reason "buy low, sell high" or "cut your losses and let your winners run" are cliches. They work.

 

I don't predict where the market is going to go. I know that in my experience there is X% chance that it will hit my target and Y% chance I will take a full stop. Which one is going to happen is a mystery to me. But as you said, that's just semantics.

 

The reason they say to "react" is because reacting implies that you are following a predetermined plan. It's a reaction because you already know what you are going to do, where your stop is going to be etc. You are reacting to a predetermined setup that you have tested and know works. You aren't making decisions on the fly, you're reacting to a certain set of circumstances that you've seen and tested, time and time again.

[thalestrader 14]

"If price actually does break above then the move up is often powerful."

 

I guess I could say the same thing for a short. But you have no way of knowing. Any body could guess. But the truth is everybody here is only guessing! Even Thales. OK back to the program.

 

Don

 

Well, an ending diagonal can occur at the end of a rally, as in this case, or the end of a decline. When I say "often," I mean a better than even chance of a powerful move opposite of what one was expecting.

 

So, in this case, had price broken above the pattern, a strong rally would have been a better than even result. Anytime you can place bteer than even odds on an outcome, you have an edge.

 

You could not say the same concerning a short, because the ending diagonal does not often produce an immediate swift and strong move in the anticipated direction. In fact, it is proabbaly more likely to do what it did here intially, decline lazily, or chop sideways, as it is to led to a sudden and sharp decline.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Cory2679 11]

Currently in JPY/USD short...bounced off resistance (thick red line), printed a lower high...

 

Not looking too great at the moment...still in, though...this will be it for me today...

 

-Cory

 

Moved stop to 1.1602.

 

I'm getting a little impatient with this trade...

[thalestrader 14]

Not as though this is a big deal, but whether or not one says 'predict' the future, or 'anticipate' a certain thing happening, or an 'educated guess' is just a matter of semantics. In that it's just how one chooses to phrase a phenomenon.

 

I think the ability to predict seems to imply what will happen as opposed to the to anticipate, which to me implies determining the odds of what might happen.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[forrestang 10]

IMO there is a reason the phrase "react don't predict" is a cliche. The same reason "buy low, sell high" or "cut your losses and let your winners run" are cliches. They work.

 

I don't predict where the market is going to go. I know that in my experience there is X% chance that it will hit my target and Y% chance I will take a full stop. Which one is going to happen is a mystery to me. But as you said, that's just semantics.

 

The reason they say to "react" is because reacting implies that you are following a predetermined plan. It's a reaction because you already know what you are going to do, where your stop is going to be etc. You are reacting to a predetermined setup that you have tested and know works. You aren't making decisions on the fly, you're reacting to a certain set of circumstances that you've seen and tested, time and time again.

 

That's all well and good what you are saying, relating it to a plan and all. And I generally agree with you. Although I generally disagree with you that the cliches work..... And by that I mean they don't work by themselves. They all MUST contain some degree of relativity to be useful. Someone saying 'buy low sell high' is absolutely useless and arbitrary...... and so are all the other cliches without the proper context. Thales likes to Buy High and Sell Lower at times, which to someone else and what they are looking at might not be buying high. It's all relative.

 

I guess my point of posting that was just to say that us harping over someone using the word 'predict' vs. 'anticipate' is a rather moot point.

 

I suppose this is like "the chicken and the egg." All these cliches are IMO relative. For example, the axiom 'buy low sell high' is completely arbitrary.... and only has meaning relative to some point. On a chart there are ONLY two absolute points, and that would be the the lowest and highest price ever traded for that instrument. Everything else is relative to whatever price someone is looking at, bar interval or time frame.

 

Now if you say Low relative to a certain price then we're talking!

 

The truth is still there, that the ONLY way to make some profits at least without doing something exotic with options, is to pick a direction (no matter what word you use to describe HOW you picked that direction), and for price to move in that direction long enough for you to cover your entry.

 

And all I am saying is that whether you call it 'reacting to price' after some resistance before you sold, or you 'predicted' that price would move down further after bouncing off resistance doesn't matter, it's just semantics in how you chose to word the phenomenon that occurs on your charts.

 

I think the ability to predict seems to imply what will happen as opposed to the to anticipate, which to me implies determining the odds of what might happen.

I almost mentioned this point as I think it is a good one. But I guess I was thinking that it was understood that none of us can actually see into the future and KNOW with certainty where price is heading. So maybe in that particular case that might not be the best word to use in that situation.

Edited November 30, 2009 by forrestang

[Cory2679 11]

Moved stop to 1.1602.

 

I'm getting a little impatient with this trade...

 

Moved to 1.1599...might be too tight, but like I said...getting impatient...

[thalestrader 14]

Potential Short EJ.

 

Gabe

 

Awesome eye, Gabe. We were out this morning, but we'd have taken that same short had we been here. Congratulations!

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

GU ready to rest or rally?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Ernie McCracken 10]

You may want to eliminate the dead time from your charts.

 

Gabe

 

 

Thanks, Gabe. Much better.

 

Here's an open UJ position. Seems to be headed in the right direction and my S/L is at BE now, but I'm fighting the T/P demons. Looking at the 15m, I think there's a very good chance I get stopped out, but I don't want to get into the habit of taking 10-15 pips profit after initially risking 25.

 

[Gabe2004 10]

Forgot to post this one.

Sorry

 

Gabe

[Cory2679 11]

Forgot to post this one.

Sorry

 

Gabe

 

Why not like this, Gabe?

[Cory2679 11]

Why not like this, Gabe?

 

Here's a clearer picture...

 

And you got 1:1 on that...

[thalestrader 14]

Current look at the EJ.

 

I'm not a big fan of starting this late, but I'm trying to post a losing trade for Don.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales