Reading Charts in Real Time

[thalestrader 14]

EURUSD touched my break even SLmove, and now its taking a bit of a bounce. A break even trade is ok with me.

 

Price came within 4 ticks of PT1, and I decided to pull the plug at a +4 ticks with news pending. Price was so close to the break even stop that we would have been plucked out when my broker widens the spread just before the news.

 

Here is a current look at what could develop into a long trade on the EURUSD. We're not trading this one.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Folks,

 

I'll be in the kitchen for much of the rest of today playing prep cook and dishwasher, i.e. peeling and cutting and washing stuff for my wife.

 

Happy Thanksgiving to all, and God Bless.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Gabe2004 10]

Potential AU SHORT.

 

Gabe

 

PS I wouldn't take it because as things are the Risk:reward is too high.

[ziebarf 10]

looks like we are a go go on eurusd short..

 

EDIT: Ooops. Looks like I am shorting into support during an uptrend. I would be amazed if this trade works out

Edited November 25, 2009 by ziebarf

[thalestrader 14]

looks like we are a go go on eurusd short..

 

EDIT: Ooops. Looks like I am shorting into support during an uptrend. I would be amazed if this trade works out

 

If you look at my EURUSD short from earlier, you will see that you were shorting at a level close by what would have been my first PT (first support). Remember that most of these trades will not reach the second PT, and your PT1 is down on the way to what would have been my second PT. This is a tough place to have gone short. I hope it works for you, but a quick look makes me think it might be better to be getting yourself long.

 

So, what did you do?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Dinerotrader 10]

Quick look at Oil right now. Lots of reversal points to play. A break above could get moving with how much resistance it will have to break through.

 

[Dinerotrader 10]

Quick look at Oil right now. Lots of reversal points to play. A break above could get moving with how much resistance it will have to break through.

 

We got our breakout and it was good.

 

Edited November 25, 2009 by Dinerotrader

[BlowFish 10]

That is definitely one for the couldaswouldashoulda file: ....snip.....

 

Interesting post. Actually answers some questions I had about what you do when you sit down just after a break has occurred. In any case you would have needed a lot of patience to endure the long narrow sideways period before it really got going.

[thalestrader 14]

looks like we are a go go on eurusd short..

 

EDIT: Ooops. Looks like I am shorting into support during an uptrend. I would be amazed if this trade works out

 

If you look at my EURUSD short from earlier, you will see that you were shorting at a level close by what would have been my first PT (first support). Remember that most of these trades will not reach the second PT, and your PT1 is down on the way to what would have been my second PT. This is a tough place to have gone short. I hope it works for you, but a quick look makes me think it might be better to be getting yourself long.

 

Here are two ooks at the EU the first showing the proximity of Z's short entry to the rally's prior high (resistance now support).

 

The second shows the point at which price indicated that it was not likely to go lower and indeed and instead would challenge the rally's current high.

 

So, did Z sell a false breakout?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Don4 10]

Thales, would you have a stop in the market or would you have a larger stop waiting to exit manually.

[thalestrader 14]

Hi folks,

 

A few housekeeping issues for the thread.

 

1) It is quite cumbersome for me always to write out the whole pair symbol, eg EURUSD, especially when I am trying to do these posts quickly, in real time, while trading several accounts. Therefore, from now on I am going to adopt here a convention that several of my trading friends and I use when communicating with one another:

 

I will use the first initial of each currency only when referring to a pair, with the exception of the Swiss pairs. For example, the EURUSD will be referred to as the EU, and so on ...

 

EU = EURUSD

GU = GBPUSD

EJ = EURJPY

UJ = USDJPY

UC = USDCAD

UCf = USDCHF

 

and so on and so forth.

 

2) Just to reiterate, when sharing a chart with a trade opportunity, we should all try to use a blue line for entry, a red line for initial stop loss, green line(s) for profit targets. When I remember, I use a dotted magenta line to indicate the pont at which my stop loss will be moved to breakeven.

 

3) Lastly, it is ok to disagree with me and with each other. But when doing so, let's be sure to keep our responses polite and respectful.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Thales, would you have a stop in the market or would you have a larger stop waiting to exit manually.

 

I always have a stop in the market. I will at times exit manually before my stop is hit depending upon how price is acting. But I do not want to be in the middle of a power failure or a news spike and not have an ejector seat locked and loaded.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Don4 10]

Yes, I agree with you on that. But you never really answered my question. Sometime next week could you post a trade showing where your stops auctually are instead of where you would get out manually. I am not trying to argue. But it would give me some piece of mind! I am in no way trying to do with what you are doing in your system. But I think it would be very interesting for others to see.

 

Thanks,

Don

[thalestrader 14]

Yes, I agree with you on that. But you never really answered my question. Sometime next week could you post a trade showing where your stops auctually are instead of where you would get out manually. I am not trying to argue. But it would give me some piece of mind! I am in no way trying to do with what you are doing in your system. But I think it would be very interesting for others to see.

 

Thanks,

Don

 

Sure, I can do that, but my stops are where I say they are, and if I get out early, it is because of something I see. Forexample, when I set an order to buy1.6509, and I say I have a -25 stop loss, and a PT at +100, I assure you that I have a buy stop sett to trigger at 1.6509, with an OCO sell stop at 1.6584 and a sell limit at 1.6709. When I say I am going to break even with my stop, that means I am going to my entry price on my stop.

 

My stops are usually very easy to see.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Yes, I agree with you on that. But you never really answered my question. Sometime next week could you post a trade showing where your stops actually are

 

Hi Don,

 

Look at this chart of the EU. I am not in this long trade, but if I were, the red lines indicate where my actual stop would have started and how I would have trailed it. These would be real hard stops resting with my broker, or, if this were the 6E, sitting out on Globex.

 

If I choose to get out manually prior to my stop getting hit, it will be because I see price trade in a way that indicates that it is geting set to move against my position.

 

I do not have a large stop like you seem to use, many many ticks away from the market. I do not need to have such a stop. If I am right, price doesn't come back to my stop, if I am wrong, I want to be stopped out.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

The second [chart] shows the point at which price indicated that it was not likely to go lower and indeed and instead would challenge the rally's current high.

 

EU did challenge and break the early morning high, and had this long trade employed the third PT, it would have been filled or nearly so depending upon your broker and spread.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Potential AU SHORT.

 

Gabe

 

PS I wouldn't take it because as things are the Risk:reward is too high.

 

Hi Gabe,

 

After you posted the possible short, I checked the AU and I marked off a possible long as well. As the AU in all time frames is bullish, with successively higher and higher break ups, a long would be the easiet play today.

 

Here is the chart, then and now.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Don4 10]

Ok, for the first part of the trade is this bascilly what you do.

Thanks,

Don

[jonbig04 10]

Just want to make sure I understand what Thales is doing. I had R marked off at 1111 today on ES. We had a short opportunity there, and I annotated this chart in hindsight based on how I think you all are entering. Just want to make sure I have the concept down.

 

[thalestrader 14]

Ok, for the first part of the trade is this bascilly what you do.

[ATTACH]15849[/ATTACH]

Thanks,

Don

 

All the stops I show are hard stops entered on my trading platform and sitting with the broker for spot and on Globex for futures.

 

Where you point to a manual exit I have a hard stop. A manual exit is made before price come back to a hard stop, and I exit in such a way only when price has given me an indication that it is reversing down and likely to take me out at my hard stop anyway.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Just want to make sure I understand what Thales is doing. I had R marked off at 1111 today on ES. We had a short opportunity there, and I annotated this chart in hindsight based on how I think you all are entering. Just want to make sure I have the concept down.

 

 

Hi Jon,

 

Well that is one fast and thin chart, but yes, that is what we are doing. The question for you is how do you manage the trade? Are you using profit targets? Trailing stop?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Anyone care to fade that EU rally with less than an hour to go in the US equity session the day before a US bank Holiday?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Gabe2004 10]

Anyone care to fade that EU rally with less than an hour to go in the US equity session the day before a US bank Holiday?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Is it my moeny or yours?

 

Gabe

[Don4 10]

Well it looks good on the 5min.

[Gabe2004 10]

Well it looks good on the 5min.

[ATTACH]15855[/ATTACH]

 

 

Even on the 5 min I would short lower.

 

Gabe