Reading Charts in Real Time

[Cory2679 11]

I'm currently watching the JPY/USD (6J), possibly looking for a break of 1.1286 for the short...

 

I took this trade live!

 

Unfortunately, right after I got in, the price shot quickly against me. I pulled out for a 10 tick loss. It looks like it could be coming back though.

 

I'm not sure if the decision to pull out was good or not...it may have been...

 

I think I just need to step back and collect myself. I did AWESOME sim trading this approach. I just need to somehow translate that into real results. I mean, even just based on the trades I've posted here this week, I'd probably be up a decent chunk already this week, and it's only Tuesday. However, I haven't taken any of them! lol...except this one that I just pulled out of. I'll be interested to see what would've happen had I stayed in.

 

-Cory

[Cory2679 11]

I'm watching a setup on the EU (which I didn't take) that would have been a 9 tick loser, which will no doubt keep me out of the next potential winning trade out of fear.

 

I may have squeezed my "theoretical stop" too tight. Price came down within 1 tick of my PT (it actually hit it, but I assume a trade THROUGH would be required for a fill).

 

If nothing else, I could have at LEAST gotten BE, which I definitley would have gotten to after that lower low that almost filled for profit.

 

EDIT: If somehow it would have filled for profit, that would've been +27 ticks...

[Cory2679 11]

I took this trade live!

 

Woops, I didn't take this trade live!! My account was on sim and I didn't realize it. :o:embarassed:

 

Well, it still counts as far as my psychology is concerned, because I thought I was live, but my money is safe and sound.

[Cory2679 11]

Assuming you are not trading massive size yes.....not sure about the new mini futures ....no experience of those (yet).

 

The volume on the currency minis is a joke. I'm talking 2% or less of the volume of the standard contracts (check them out on the CME's website).

[Gabe2004 10]

Woops, I didn't take this trade live!! My account was on sim and I didn't realize it. :o:embarassed:

 

Well, it still counts as far as my psychology is concerned, because I thought I was live, but my money is safe and sound.

 

Happened to me 2-3 times and now I have a stikky note on one of the monitors.

What a relief it was to know that I was in sim when the trade went against me and how upset I was when the sim trade turned in my favour :doh:

 

Gabe

[Gabe2004 10]

The volume on the currency minis is a joke. I'm talking 2% or less of the volume of the standard contracts (check them out on the CME's website).

Currency volume by 1:40PM Nov_24_2009. Standard size.

 

Gabe

[Gabe2004 10]

Took an non Thales' tradetoday

Reason was the small candle after the large one. ( i have a theory behind this)

Lost 3x21 = 63 pips.

Potential short by the rules.

 

Gabe

[Dinerotrader 10]

Took an non Thales' tradetoday

Reason was the small candle after the large one. ( i have a theory behind this)

Lost 3x21 = 63 pips.

Potential short by the rules.

 

Gabe

 

Gabe,

Your charts are looking much better lately. That was a choppy area to be getting into a trade. I should know since I did that a bunch today and lost. Would you qualify your entry point as one of your most profitable setups. If not, why not wait for a better one. BTW, I am mostly writing to mysefl here as therapy for taking bad trades today.

[Gabe2004 10]

Gabe,

Your charts are looking much better lately. That was a choppy area to be getting into a trade. I should know since I did that a bunch today and lost. Would you qualify your entry point as one of your most profitable setups. If not, why not wait for a better one. BTW, I am mostly writing to mysefl here as therapy for taking bad trades today.

 

The jury is still out on this one.

I see many times that there is a decent move after a small bar but in this case, this was not the best example of that setup.

 

Gabe

 

PS I like the NEW LOOK of my charts too.

[Cory2679 11]

Currency volume by 1:40PM Nov_24_2009. Standard size.

 

Gabe

 

Here's a picture of currency futures volume for the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and the JPY/USD.

 

This list is in the following order...

 

- EUR/USD Standard

- EUR/USD Mini

- EUR/USD Micro

 

- GBP/USD Standard

- Blank (There is no GBP/USD Mini)

- GBP/USD Micro

 

- JPY/USD Standard

- JPY/USD Mini

- USD/JPY Micro

 

Anything other than the standard contract is not reasonable to trade. I WISH I could trade the mini's.

[Cory2679 11]

I took this trade live!

 

Unfortunately, right after I got in, the price shot quickly against me. I pulled out for a 10 tick loss. It looks like it could be coming back though.

 

I'm not sure if the decision to pull out was good or not...it may have been...

 

Looks like I made the right decision...taking the 10 tick loss. Even if price comes back and makes the trade successful, worst case I could just re-enter at a break of the low or something like that. Like it's been said on here before, easier to make up that 10 tick loss than a potential 25 tick loss.

[thalestrader 14]

Current look of the ES. 5 minute has the look of a little "cup w/ handle pattern." Of course, markets are so thin anything can happen. Then again, even when no thin, anything can happen.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Current look of the ES.

 

So far, a most uninspired break.

[Don4 10]

Forex is a beast, and I find it highly unlikley that anybody can tame it using tight stops. Although, I guess there can be exceptions (Thales). But it doesnt work for me! What I want to show you is not necessarily the setup but money management. It is true that I lost $21,000 trading it was $6000 in futures and $15000 in forex. But I knew what I was doing(yea right). The truth is that I didnt know what I was doing. So with that you can read this post with discretion.

 

 

 

 

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Don,

 

I do not follow you at all. Would you try to explain what you are trying do again?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

So far, a most uninspired break.

 

So far the ES hasn't even mustered the energy to trade 1107.

 

I really see nothing that I like right now. We may take a peak at Tokyo, but otherwise it loks as though Thanksgiving vacation has started.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[RichardTodd 10]

I wish someone would make this version for NT.

 

I haven't seen anything but the screenshots, but I threw this one for NT together today. It's similar in look to what I saw posted here. Anyway, I attached a snapshot of 15-minute virtual bars on top of 1-minute bars. Maybe it will be of use to you.

 

Provided as-is, no warranties, and all that stuff.

 

What I want to do is somehow dock a dial on the left side of the chart, so that you can control the opacity in real-time. That way, you don't have to be staring at the virtual bars unless you want to. Not sure how hard ninja is going to fight me on that front. (I'd then like to attach this dial to all of my price indicators, actually)

Z20091123VirtualBars.zip

[Kiwi 16]

I understand and agree with you about the spread.

I don't understand though, why does a 5 tick bother your daughter if her average win is 50-60 pips as you have mentioned in the past.

Also I don't agree with the 6 pip handicap.

If Oanda has a 3 pip spread than that is my handicap.

One cannot include the spread twice.

If bid/ask is 100.00/100.03 than to enter long I would pay 100.03 and if I want to exit immediately I would get 100.00 so the handicap is only the spread once and not twice.

 

Please correct me if i am wrong.

 

Gabe

 

 

This is a good question Gabe and illustrates a problem that became clear to me when I started systematizing what I do. You must compare the spread not with your average win but with your average trade.

 

So if your average winner is 60 and your average loser is 20 and you get 50% winners the average trade is (60*.5)-(20*.5) = 20 pips. Compare that with 5 pips spread?

 

 

And the figures above are for a pretty nice trading strategy (profit factor is 30/10 = 3 whereas most systems operate at 1.5 to 2 profit factors. So, you need to get your average trade well up above your costs. The above gave 20/5 so your costs were 25% of your trade. I think you want them to be under 10%.

[Kiwi 16]

Since I noticed that some currency pairs move alot during the London open, is there enough liquidity in the futures market during those hours to trade the futures an no the spot?

 

Gabe

 

 

For the majors there is more than enough liquidity in the big contracts but not so much (unless its changed very recently) on the small contracts. (Major = Currency vs USD = pretty much the ones that Thales mentioned). Note: Just saw Cory's post which shows that the minis and micros have no volume - so most small traders are sticking with cash forex.

 

Look, stick with the ones that Thales mentioned on Forex and don't worry about futures yet. Forex scalability helps. If you want to compare spread to trade just use average trade which is likely to be less than half your target winning trades.

 

You might consider another broker. Interactive brokers spreads on GU are rather small. But we do pay commission on every trade (so that's added spread in effect).

Edited November 24, 2009 by Kiwi

[Gabe2004 10]

I haven't seen anything but the screenshots, but I threw this one for NT together today. It's similar in look to what I saw posted here. Anyway, I attached a snapshot of 15-minute virtual bars on top of 1-minute bars. Maybe it will be of use to you.

 

Provided as-is, no warranties, and all that stuff.

 

What I want to do is somehow dock a dial on the left side of the chart, so that you can control the opacity in real-time. That way, you don't have to be staring at the virtual bars unless you want to. Not sure how hard ninja is going to fight me on that front. (I'd then like to attach this dial to all of my price indicators, actually)

 

Thank you

 

Great job.

If I may suggest, can you modify the overlaid chart to the following format?

 

Gabe

[Gabe2004 10]

For the majors there is more than enough liquidity in the big contracts but not so much (unless its changed very recently) on the small contracts. (Major = Currency vs USD = pretty much the ones that Thales mentioned). Note: Just saw Cory's post which shows that the minis and micros have no volume - so most small traders are sticking with cash forex.

 

Look, stick with the ones that Thales mentioned on Forex and don't worry about futures yet. Forex scalability helps. If you want to compare spread to trade just use average trade which is likely to be less than half your target winning trades.

 

You might consider another broker. Interactive brokers spreads on GU are rather small. But we do pay commission on every trade (so that's added spread in effect).

 

The problem is that IB has high minimums (for me at this time) as far as units traded are concerned.

 

Gabe

[MidKnight 12]

Hi Don,

 

I do not follow you at all. Would you try to explain what you are trying do again?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Hmmm, yeah - I didn't understand what you were getting at there either...

[Don4 10]

Sorry guys, I do that alot it might be because of the stroke I had a while back:doh: But I will start a new thread so that I will not clutter this one up.

[MidKnight 12]

Hello all,

 

I'm going to put more words into my trade posts because I feel that simply marking the blue, red, green lines is insufficient to explain why to take the trade. The actual entry on this technique is trivial, but the reasons why to take that entry are not.

 

I'm taking this short because I see that we have tested the R zone twice more last night and can see how price could go down to at least the 1.4920 area.

[RichardTodd 10]

If I may suggest, can you modify the overlaid chart to the following format?

 

Here you are. To get the style you wanted (i think? chart attached), select BoxStyle = true, and make sure the penAlpha is like 100 or so. The alpha is important because otherwise you won't be able to see through to the bars beneath. Note that it also now counts in minutes by default (it used to count in bars by default, but some charts have gaps in the data that would throw off the timing).

virtBars2.zip