Reading Charts in Real Time

[Don4 10]

Gabe this is how I see it.

 

[Gabe2004 10]

Gabe this is how I see it.

 

[ATTACH]15642[/ATTACH]

 

This is exactly the reason I have a problem with this stuff.

Eventhough my markings would have worked, yours would have worked as well.

 

Gabe

[Don4 10]

Ive been thinking on how I trade and how thales trades.

[forrestang 10]

Hi Folks,

 

Here is a 60 minute Crude from the last few weeks. One of our silent readers tells me that he has been using our little approach on the hourly crude. He didn't send me a chart, and as he has not responded to my request to post his chart here, I have reconstructed his trades based upon is identification of the times of the Highs, Lows, and triggers. He is using a simple 1.62% fib extension of the primary swing for his profit target. He has a $1 disaster stop, and adjusts it "quickly" to the high/low of the trigger bar.

 

Any thoughts? Comments?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

I know you reconstructed this, so just a few hindsight observations based on this.

 

The swing point type entry, sometimes they occur in the 'chop zone' and we might want to wait to take the entry out of the initial balance set by the chop zone. Or maybe a pattern that occurs right @ the edge of the chop zone.

 

I think the questions on the chart should make sense.

[forrestang 10]

Ive been thinking on how I trade and how thales trades.

[ATTACH]15643[/ATTACH]

 

Don,

 

We've all seen fractals/3bar entries used before.

 

I've never figured out when to take them. How are you selected your entries? Are they based on general S/R?

 

Or like in the picture you posted, the first entry all the way on the left, are you anticipating what could be the LH and an entry based on that?

[thalestrader 14]

Gabe this is how I see it.

 

[ATTACH]15642[/ATTACH]

 

Where you say his LH shouldn't be there, I have to say, at the time it was happening, it looked good enough to me to trade.

 

Short EURJPY at 132.49

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Don4 10]

Don,

 

We've all seen fractals/3bar entries used before.

 

I've never figured out when to take them. How are you selected your entries? Are they based on general S/R?

 

Or like in the picture you posted, the first entry all the way on the left, are you anticipating what could be the LH and an entry based on that?

 

I personally use 5 bars because fractals cant become fractals on 3 bars alone. But I can see where you get 3 bar entries. But I use 5.

Yes, I believe that S/R on is the same as fractals and fractals is the same as S/R.

Yes that is exactly what I do.

I know it is confusing because it is confusing to explain.

 

[thalestrader 14]

I know you reconstructed this, so just a few hindsight observations based on this.

 

The swing point type entry, sometimes they occur in the 'chop zone' and we might want to wait to take the entry out of the initial balance set by the chop zone. Or maybe a pattern that occurs right @ the edge of the chop zone.

 

I think the questions on the chart should make sense.

 

Hi Forrst,

 

In the first instance, I tend to agree with you. Crudetrader's (not his name, but that's what we'll call him until he shows up) entry meant that he was interpreting that range as a chop zone. I may have been tempted to take a long, and then a short where you place a possible short entry.

 

In the second instance, however, I do not see a chop zone. Doesn't the low and the initial rally produce a L-H, and then the pullback a HL, with the HH trigger generated by the gap higher? It looks clean to me.

 

Now, the real question this: Will Soldier Field be a chop zone tonight? Tonight's game may as well be a play off for both of our teams, because it is hard to see how either make the playoffs if each adds another loss to their season.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[TrueBalance 10]

Here's my first (public anyway) attempt at S/R analysis of spot FX. Right now, a few hours before the Sydney open, EURJPY is in a range with no clear direction (131.83 - 132.26). For a reasonable R/R I would like to see some determination in any movement before entering. The lines on my chart are not actual trades, they are hindsight annotations.

 

I trade mech systems and usually I don't look at charts at all. Consequently I've never really used indicators. But seeing and anticipating price movement is still not easy. Might have something to do with me being a tad older than 9.

 

Thalestrader - thank you for starting this great thread.

Edited November 22, 2009 by TrueBalance

[johnjohn1hew 10]

Gabe this is how I see it.

 

[ATTACH]15642[/ATTACH]

 

That LH after the double top is a beautiful setup...Risk less than reward...slight pullback after a pretty powerful drop. Hindsight gives you the ability to say that it was not where you would have considered a LH...even though it clearly was...

[johnjohn1hew 10]

Here is my interpretation of Don's chart...

[forrestang 10]

Hi Forrst,

 

In the first instance, I tend to agree with you. Crudetrader's (not his name, but that's what we'll call him until he shows up) entry meant that he was interpreting that range as a chop zone. I may have been tempted to take a long, and then a short where you place a possible short entry.

 

In the second instance, however, I do not see a chop zone. Doesn't the low and the initial rally produce a L-H, and then the pullback a HL, with the HH trigger generated by the gap higher? It looks clean to me.

 

Now, the real question this: Will Soldier Field be a chop zone tonight? Tonight's game may as well be a play off for both of our teams, because it is hard to see how either make the playoffs if each adds another loss to their season.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

So about the Chop Zone.......

 

The chop zone, we see that as an area where price makes an attempt to move, but stalls? For example, where price comes down to support, puts in a L-H-LH, but then fails to put in that HH for the breakout correct? At that point we are in the chop zone.

 

Does the picture I've attached illustrate how the chop zone sets up, and a logical way to structure trades around it?

 

Also, the "must win" term is probably the most over used term in football. Sometimes it seems like I hear it in the first 3 games of the season. But I think you would be justified in making such a claim in this case. WE are in 3rd in our division, and there are 6 teams in front of us for the wild card birth. And you guys, if you lose today you MUST win your next 6 games.,..... So hopefully we will remain buddies after tonight

 

4hours,25 minutes till kickoff!

[Don4 10]

"That LH after the double top is a beautiful setup...Risk less than reward...slight pullback after a pretty powerful drop. Hindsight gives you the ability to say that it was not where you would have considered a LH...even though it clearly was..."

 

 

I am only here to help with what I know, I will not argue with anybody. But it doesnt add up with my entry rules. So no I would not have taken that trade. Does that make me right and Gabe and you wrong. No, because Gabe was right and I was wrong. But I still wouldnt have entered the trade.

 

[thalestrader 14]

For a reasonable R/R I would like a movement with some momentum before entering

 

Hi TrueBalance,

 

I see that you edited your post, but I thought your comment about momentum appropriate. I too like to see the market do some "swingin'" before I decide to participate in a particular opportunity.

 

You look like your trades would have worked out well. Thank you for sharing.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

I am only here to help with what I know, I will not argue with anybody. But it doesn't add up with my entry rules.

 

I know I am not alone in saying that I appreciate your contributions to this thread.

 

I don't think John is looking for an argument either. We are all free to debate and disagree here, and a spirited response from anyone of us from time to time is to be expected.

 

That being said, we all know that once you hit the "Submit Reply" button that we have no control over the emotional response or interpretation that our own words with induce in our interlocutors. Perhaps we all (and I include myself in this) would serve ourselves well if before posting a response that takes issue with another's views we give it a quick read to see if we worded it so as to minimize the possibility that our spiritedness is not taken for being mean-spirited. We are attracting a good group of folks here, and we wouldn't want to lose anyone over a difference of opinion.

 

By the way, I wasn't looking to argue with you, and I certainly should not be interpreted as suggesting that you were wrong. I was only noting that as price presented itself at that point, it seemed to me to pointing to immediately lower prices. For me it was an opportunity to take a short entry. I fully understand that your entries are based on different criteria than mine. No problem. I am here both to teach and to learn from others. I am not trying to create an homogeneous bunch of unthinking Thales-clones.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[forrestang 10]

I personally use 5 bars because fractals cant become fractals on 3 bars alone. But I can see where you get 3 bar entries. But I use 5.

Yes, I believe that S/R on is the same as fractals and fractals is the same as S/R.

Yes that is exactly what I do.

I know it is confusing because it is confusing to explain.

 

[ATTACH]15645[/ATTACH]

 

I think that one picture you posted with the comparison between the two different entries cleared up what your are doing quite a bit, initially I was confused.

 

I see I was way off on what I thought a fractal was though, and I still dont get it. I thoguht the fractal was basically seeing when a 'pivot' was formed. But don't worry about it, I will figure out what they are as you continue to post your charts.

 

I see you had a 15m candle overlay on your 5 minute chart. Your entries are based soley on the 5min chart though right?

[thalestrader 14]

So about the Chop Zone.......

 

Does the picture I've attached illustrate how the chop zone sets up, and a logical way to structure trades around it?

 

Also, the "must win" term is probably the most over used term in football. Sometimes it seems like I hear it in the first 3 games of the season. But I think you would be justified in making such a claim in this case. WE are in 3rd in our division, and there are 6 teams in front of us for the wild card birth. And you guys, if you lose today you MUST win your next 6 games.,..... So hopefully we will remain buddies after tonight

 

4hours,25 minutes till kickoff!

 

I think your picture adequately captures the notion of what I consider to be a chop zone. Do you still think that trade number 2 on the crude chart was chop zone?

 

And yes, "must win," is over used in football. But as you note, whoever loses tonight will have long odds against a play off berth, and will likely require the help of other teams to get there. But win or lose, we'll still be buddies. Unless the Eagles lose. Win or lose.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Don4 10]

I think that one picture you posted with the comparison between the two different entries cleared up what your are doing quite a bit, initially I was confused.

 

I see I was way off on what I thought a fractal was though, and I still dont get it. I thoguht the fractal was basically seeing when a 'pivot' was formed. But don't worry about it, I will figure out what they are as you continue to post your charts.

 

I see you had a 15m candle overlay on your 5 minute chart. Your entries are based soley on the 5min chart though right?

 

No, that was 5m overlay on a 1 minute chart. I would highly recommend everyone to open up a MT4 account even if they dont trade it. And watch price the way it moves between the overlay and the real chart!!

[forrestang 10]

Do you still think that trade number 2 on the crude chart was chop zone?

 

No, I think it has been cleared up now! I mis-read that chart initially.

[MidKnight 12]

Ive been thinking on how I trade and how thales trades.

[ATTACH]15643[/ATTACH]

 

Hi Don,

 

I still don't fully understand what you are doing. If it is just anticipated fractals (previous bars h/l broken??) then you would certainly be getting many many more trades per day than Thales would - wouldn't you? For example, on that chart you posted here, how many trades does that give you? I know the thermal imaging sensing hindsight goggles are on, just answer the best you can though.

 

With thanks,

MK

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Folks,

 

I am receiving no data through the Gain feed in Ninjatrader, so I am posting a 15 minute EURJPY from MT4.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

I am receiving no data through the Gain feed in Ninjatrader, so I am posting a 15 minute EURJPY from MT4.

 

... So far, so good ... if you're long. PT1 is 132.25, PT2 132.50.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Don4 10]

Hi Don,

 

I still don't fully understand what you are doing. If it is just anticipated fractals (previous bars h/l broken??) then you would certainly be getting many many more trades per day than Thales would - wouldn't you? For example, on that chart you posted here, how many trades does that give you? I know the thermal imaging sensing hindsight goggles are on, just answer the best you can though.

 

With thanks,

MK

 

Yes, as I said in that post I would. Is what you are wanting, is for me to tell you how many signals I would have had in that chart? Hmm, I dont understand. Sorry!!!

[thalestrader 14]

PT1 is 132.25, PT2 132.50

 

 

PT1 is done +29, PT2 is outstanding, stop is +8

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[MidKnight 12]

Yes, as I said in that post I would. Is what you are wanting, is for me to tell you how many signals I would have had in that chart? Hmm, I dont understand. Sorry!!!

 

Aloha Don,

 

I guess what I was trying to establish was if your way of trading is higher frequency. I don't really understand what you are doing yet, but if I understand these fractal things right, then it looks like a higher frequency style - which of course is fine. I'm just trying to establish the differences between what you are doing and what Thales is doing.

 

With kind regards,

MK