Reading Charts in Real Time

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Folks,

 

Current look on the EURUSD, with PTs at +35 and +85.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

I took the same EURUSD trade you did (albeit 6E), but I saw it a little differently. I'm watching the 15 min and 13 range charts, and I took the trade off the range chart... The way I saw it was that price had obviously bounced off the support, then took another attempt and failed, so then I was looking to go long.

 

I was just curious if you consider my execution as a suitable way to handle the move, or if you disagree and why.

 

I've been studying the approach for a couple weeks and began sim trading it this week, and so far I've pretty much approached setups the same way you have, except this one, hence the question.

 

Thanks.

 

Hi Cory,

 

Welcome aboard!

 

You bought support, which is what you want to do. Buy support and breaks of resistance, sell resistance and breaks of support. It looks as though price hit and filled you PT, so that would indicate that you likely did something right and that you didn't just get lucky.

 

Lastly, if you do something and it works, and if you keep doing it and over time you have a net profitable result, then do not let anything I or anyone else says to you cause you to rethink o stop what you are doing. As the saying goes, if it ain't broker, don't fix it. To which I would add, if you're going broke, stop!

 

It looks like you did a fine job. I hope you keep sharing with us.

 

By the way, I like watching the 13R on the futures as well.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[BlowFish 10]

Hi Blowfish,

 

I have placed notes on my chart that I hope answer your questions.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Thanks for taking the trouble to do that. As with all things the devil is in the detail and knowing what to pass on is probably every bit (or more) important than simply identifying potential BO's.

[BlowFish 10]

I don't want to ruffle feathers here nor upset anyone, but to me, bars are irrelevant. Dbphoenix and others are always saying this... Price is moving, you trade the movements...This approach could be done using a line chart, but the range of price is important. I just want to keep things simple. I just have a feeling that a lot of focus has been on individual bars lately. Sure, i'm just a beginner (and what do i know, right?), but the theory is sound.

 

I wouldn't say they are irrelevant, its a 'data sampling' issue. Yes price is continuous but how we sample it to make sense of it is important. For example a high or low of a daily bar represents the extremes in that continuous data for the day in a question. The same is true of an hourly bar or a 15 minute bar.

 

Anyway that was not what I was driving at.....what I wanted to know was what action would be taken (if any) if one was to sit down at the moment in time bar 1 was painting or bar 2 etc. I am certainly not hung up on the bars they are simply a way of sampling the data to allow you to see the movement (including extremes) that you are interested in.

[thalestrader 14]

TL - It is the place to be!

[thalestrader 14]

Wait for it ... wait for it ...

[thalestrader 14]

Wait for it ... wait for it ...

 

Here we go ...

 

Funny thing too ... after having praised FXCM micro for the small spreads and the lack of slippage, I am getting creamed on my stops (both entries and exits) today. I could see if we were putting on $1,000,000 positions, but we are trading two mini lot equivalents. If this keeps up, we'll be posting trades basis futures only. Looks like FXCM may have taken a page out of Oanda's book. A small spread looks good, but it doesn't mean anything if you are going to get clipped for 3-5 ticks extra in and out.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Funny thing too ... after having praised FXCM micro for the small spreads and the lack of slippage, I am getting creamed on my stops (both entries and exits) today. I could see if we were putting on $1,000,000 positions, but we are trading two mini lot equivalents. If this keeps up, we'll be posting trades basis futures only. Looks like FXCM may have taken a page out of Oanda's book. A small spread looks good, but it doesn't mean anything if you are going to get clipped for 3-5 ticks extra in and out.

 

With that stop loss goes to theoretical break even at 1.4894. If I am stopped there, it will actually be a -2.6 pip loss because my fill was 1.4896. Given the way FXCM is filling stops today, if this goes back to 1.4894, my fill will probably be 1.4891 for -5.6 pip loss.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

With that stop loss goes to theoretical break even at 1.4894. If I am stopped there, it will actually be a -2.6 pip loss because my fill was 1.4896.

 

Price has now trade at/through my predetermined BE level, so I placing the stop at the actual rather than the intended entry.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Price has now trade at/through my predetermined BE level, so I placing the stop at the actual rather than the intended entry.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Well, stopped at entry. It looks as though the theoretical break even stop loss (1.4894) would have been safe for now. This is starting to feel like a wouldashouldacoulda.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Edited November 19, 2009 by thalestrader

[brownsfan019 17]

Here's my spin on that chart - I think this is similar to what Don is doing as well. Again, I'm not trading this method but for me, I would prefer to enter on the HL and anticipate the break vs. entering above it. That's just me and my reversal style of thinking.

 

[MidKnight 12]

Here we go ...

 

Funny thing too ... after having praised FXCM micro for the small spreads and the lack of slippage, I am getting creamed on my stops (both entries and exits) today. I could see if we were putting on $1,000,000 positions, but we are trading two mini lot equivalents. If this keeps up, we'll be posting trades basis futures only. Looks like FXCM may have taken a page out of Oanda's book. A small spread looks good, but it doesn't mean anything if you are going to get clipped for 3-5 ticks extra in and out.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Hello Sirs :yes sir:

 

I'm not one to push brokers at all, but IB have a good ECN model with tight spreads and because it is a true ECN, you can even go in between the spread if you like. Good deal I think, just the platform is not that intuitive for FX IMHO.....

 

To Thales & JohnJohn: Yes, I know I had been fighting the 'trend' all night. It was the worst type possible for me because the pullbacks were more like clumps instead of nice clean simple pullbacks. I was OK with my trades because it was an exercise at keeping my losses tiny and also I didn't end up revenge trading.

 

I'd just like to comment on the use of 'bars'. I totally agree with the comments about bar irrelevance. I too don't want to ruffle any feathers and have a big debate because I know how dear one can hold ones trading beliefs. Use whatever works for those beliefs.... but anyone using geometry (trendlines, gann fans, ellipses....whatever) should at least be aware the effect of changing bar intervals have on their lines.

 

With kind regards,

MK

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Folks,

 

I cannot think of a time of day less interesting to trade than this period between the NY close and the Tokyo open. At any rate, here is the current look of the EURUSD. Price is showing that the rally out of this morning's low is losing momentum, and is again presenting that now familiar ending diagonal pattern. Remember, this does not assure a a break down out of this patternl. It simply indicates a loss of momentum at the moment. A break up out of this pattern can be fierce, fast, and trending.

 

Now, I got a message from someone taking issue with my referring to some of these as "true" ending diagonals. Apparently a couple of my examples did not have the "required" internal wave count." As I have said, this is not about EW. It is about a pattern that price often traces out as momentum wanes in the latter stages of an impulse move. I really could not care any less than I already do as far as "internal wave counts" are concerned. As I said before, I am not an EW ideologue.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Kiwi 16]

Hi Blowfish,

 

I have placed notes on my chart that I hope answer your questions.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

This picture is an excellent example of clear thinking --- especially the last one.

 

Thales once again applies a 123break philosophy ... to a pin bar ... in a way that would differentiate one that was likely to take off fast from one more likely to backtrack or fail. This logic is something I used to use in sub-timeframe tests to decide where my entry should be and is excellent.

 

I must say, having read it so clearly, I am going to do a little work to show which pinbars meet the criteria and which dont. Food for thought Thales.

 

[Kiwi 16]

I liked what Thales did with the pinbar so much I used my pinbar indicator to find a few and broke the (very good) 15m pinbar down on a 1m chart. See below

 

On price bars vs continuous price: Bars, like moving averages are an indicator. A 15 ema of the 1m prices I show would have given me 1 point a little below the close of the 15m bar. A 15m bar gives you 4 points, OHLC so "can" provide move information like showing that a test "might" have occurred during the 15m bar.

 

Thales pointing out the difference between a good and bad pinbar shows that the longer timeframe bar is just a summary. One version gives a 123 break. The other version (making the high first) would have perhaps given a 123 break down on the 1m chart ... which pinbar would you prefer to be trading.

 

Despite this Price Bars (like mas :boxing:) are a useful way of summarizing the potentially overwhelming information flow that is coming out of the market.

 

 

 

 

 

A final edit: having looked at a bunch of pinbars ... you really want to find the ones that go down then come back and give you a 123&possiblebreak because 1. the 123break pattern is strong and 2. if they test back before continuation they almost always stop before or round point 3 giving you a stop within the pinbar rather than its bottom! And the nicer looking the internal 123 the less likely that pinbar is to fail.

Edited November 19, 2009 by Kiwi

[thalestrader 14]

At any rate, here is the current look of the EURUSD. Price is showing that the rally out of this morning's low is losing momentum, and is again presenting that now familiar ending diagonal pattern.

 

Heading into Asia and seeing the EURUSD, I should have taken a look at the EURJPY. Similar pattern to the EURUSD, but in this case it declined to the first PT quickly, whereas if I had traded the EURUSD, I'd still be waiting see price decline to my BE point.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

EURJPY looks a little long, though the nearness of the first PT makes this one hardly worth the risk.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

EURJPY looks a little long, though the nearness of the first PT makes this one hardly worth the risk.

 

Stop loss would now be to break even.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Stop loss would now be to break even.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Hit PT1, so stop would go to the dotted magenta line on the second half.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Perhaps the entire NY session was counter trend - Looks like Yen buyers are hungry.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Sorry for the late post, but I thought I had snaaped and posted this before it triggered. Apparently I did neither.

 

Short EURJPY at 132.49, no slippage tonight.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Short EURJPY at 132.49

 

Took half off here (a bit early) and will hold the second half for PT2 or break even.

 

Time for bed here.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[MidKnight 12]

3 cheers for no slippage :cheers:

 

I like this one, even I can see it clear and obvious!

 

Just waking up from my power nap :missy: ......

 

So far looking like yesterday. A bad case of the old 'you snooze, you lose' syndrome.

Edited November 20, 2009 by MidKnight

[Don4 10]

Sorry, it doesnt look in real time posting this new way but I guess it is something I have to do. Not posting individual trades as they happen but afterwords. Who couldnt do this. But anyway here it is.......

 

 

 

[Kiwi 16]

Short GU. See pic.

 

Currently price is a little over my entry point.

 

Edit: 15ms later and it has dropped and broken recent 123 low to give 123break. So moved stop down to 1.6677 over highs.

Edit: 35ms and tp1 has been taken after an hourly break.

Edited November 20, 2009 by Kiwi