Reading Charts in Real Time

[MidKnight 12]

Hi Forrest,

 

Yes that is the discussion I was referring to. I haven't trained my eye or developed a feel for it either.

[MidKnight 12]

...............................

 

EDIT: 0125 EST, filled on the short USD/CAD, canceled the EJ long.

 

EDIT: 0138 EST, exited the USD/CAD for -4 pips (even though the chart annotation says -3, the fill report turns out to say -4)

Edited November 19, 2009 by MidKnight

[Kiwi 16]

I am not trading this, and I will soon be turning in for the night, but here is a case were price would have nicked me into the trade and immediately rewarded me with a resounding stall. This is a case where I'd bring my stop up to -2,-3,-4 ticks or so. If stopped out, I would re-enter a tick above the new high.

 

I have mentioned Mike Reed in other threads here at TL. One thing I learned from Mike is that every trade starts as a scalp. You can always re-enter if price confirms the trades direction. But honestly, every time I enter, I expect price to move quickly and decisively in my favor. Failure to do so often spells trouble. Entry was a buy stop at 1.4930, with a 1.4915 stop loss. Why sit there and hold for a possible -15 tick loss? Cut it at -4, and and set a buy stop for at 1.4932 to get back in. Be ruthless in the protection of yourself.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

 

An excellent post Thales.

 

This is very much an example matching the right entries and exits in a system. I am almost the opposite. First I never ever use breakeven stops and second I wait a long time before moving them.

 

I think this is caused because 1. my entries can be very good but benefit by being allowed to be wrong a bit because I'm picking the trend right but sometimes getting into a retracement too early and, 2. my style of entry doesn't have a really logical "I got stopped out but here's where I get back in" point.

 

I think your approach may be easier to trade ... and it illustrates the need to match ones exits to ones entries when building a strategy. Get either side wrong and an unpleasant experience awaits the

[BlowFish 10]

Hi Folks,

 

I saw this opportunity on the EURJPY unfolding, but I didn't trade it, and I didn't take a screen shot 'til now.

 

Might I ask if you had been around earlier (with the usual caveats about hindsight) would you have considered a short on a break down of bars 1 2 or 3? Would you have considered a long on a break up of bar 3 ? Thanks as always.

[Gabe2004 10]

I'd like to just dart back to the trade mgmt immediately after the entry is triggered for a moment. A few days ago, Gabe's stops seemed to come up for discussion in that they appeared to be at non-logical levels. Gabe could confirm it for us, but it probably wasn't his stops we were seeing but instead just his exit. In retrospect, Gabe was probably doing what Thales has been talking about here. Taking a small loss and re-entering. Sound about right Gabe?

 

 

I am not sure which trades of mine you are refering to but I still suffer from PMC (Pre Mature Closing) of my trades when the trade goes in my favour)

I was experimenting with closing trades at 1/2 the distance to the nearest swing point instead of waiting to be stopped out at that swing point.

The logic behind this is that at a bar boundry, price in the lower time-frame will cross the boundry of the higher boundry more than once (except in strong moves). So if I take only half the loss, I can go at it twice and be at the same monetary position as if I took the bigger loss.

 

Gabe

[Gabe2004 10]

Might I ask if you had been around earlier (with the usual caveats about hindsight) would you have considered a short on a break down of bars 1 2 or 3? Would you have considered a long on a break up of bar 3 ? Thanks as always.

 

As Thales is still sleeping I'll take a stab at it

I think that the answer is NO because the low of bar 2 did not go below the low of bar 1

 

Gabe

[Gabe2004 10]

This really is my last one,

 

:rofl:

 

How many times have I said that to myself?

 

Is this an addiction or love?

 

Gabe

[BlowFish 10]

As Thales is still sleeping I'll take a stab at it

I think that the answer is NO because the low of bar 2 did not go below the low of bar 1

 

Gabe

 

Yes indeed Gabe. I probably didn't express myself well. What I meant is would TT have considered placing stop entry orders under those bars (which would not have triggered).

 

1 would not have triggered - but was it a potential trade?

2 would trigger on bar 3

3 would trigger on bar 4.

 

Where either of those (2&3) up for consideration? I would have probably considered 3 long too but that did not trigger either.

[Gabe2004 10]

Are you referring to this sequence of discussion?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The picture I marked up is above.

 

Looking back on it, I wonder? Initially him getting taken out when he did seemed like it didn't make sense to me.

 

But based on this, does it look like after entry price moved enough INITIALLY to want to stay in the trade?

 

Thales brings up a good point. Some trades just fill you and immediately fall on it's face, w/o moving in the direction at all. I haven't trained my eye to recognize this obviously.

 

 

I explained the 1st exit in post #1455.

The second exit was because I was very tired and went to sleep but did not want to hold the position while sleeping.

 

Gabe

[Gabe2004 10]

Yes indeed Gabe. I probably didn't express myself well. What I meant is would TT have considered placing stop entry orders under those bars (which would not have triggered).

 

1 would not have triggered - but was it a potential trade?

2 would trigger on bar 3

3 would trigger on bar 4.

 

Where either of those (2&3) up for consideration? I would have probably considered 3 long too but that did not trigger either.

 

 

Bar 2 did not make an L and bar 3 did not make an LH so the conditions were not right for a short.

 

Gabe

[MidKnight 12]

.......................

 

 

EDIT: 0552 EST, I probably have the jitters now with the freedom to take a tiny loss. Exited the trade already as it broke 1 tick above to fill me and then retraced back 1/2 way to the stop. Exited for -8. Can't seem to get anything working tonight, probably because I'm fighting this entire move....

Edited November 19, 2009 by MidKnight

[thalestrader 14]

Might I ask if you had been around earlier (with the usual caveats about hindsight) would you have considered a short on a break down of bars 1 2 or 3? Would you have considered a long on a break up of bar 3 ? Thanks as always.

 

Hi Blowfish,

 

I have placed notes on my chart that I hope answer your questions.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Can't seem to get anything working tonight, probably because I'm fighting this entire move....

 

How soon we forget ...

 

Get a demo account, and from now on, every time you fade a trend on a trend day, take a trade with the trend in your demo account. I'll bet that 9/10 times, at the end of the day, you'd gladly trade your real PnL for the demo PnL.

 

The easiest money you will ever make will be resisting the urge to fade the strong move and instead just keep buying new highs and selling new lows.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[johnjohn1hew 10]

.......................

 

 

EDIT: 0552 EST, I probably have the jitters now with the freedom to take a tiny loss. Exited the trade already as it broke 1 tick above to fill me and then retraced back 1/2 way to the stop. Exited for -8. Can't seem to get anything working tonight, probably because I'm fighting this entire move....

 

Maybe you shouldn't try to pick bottoms or tops. Initiate trades with the trend and assume a continuation...just my opinion. I'm saying this because i can't tell when a top or bottom has been reached, so i look for opportunities in the direction of the trend. This is another thing i like about this approach - you don't predict, you let the market do what its going to do - if it moves in your favor, then so be it. Also, i want to see price action that i can understand and is directionally inclined.

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Folks,

 

Current look at the EURJPY - could be an ending diagonal. Ending diagonals do not indicate anything other than that the trend of which it is a part is momentarily losing momentum, and may be coming to an end. In my experience, when an ending diagonal results in a continuation of the trend rather than an end, the move is usually large and subject to continues trending.

 

I do not typically trade the pattern's trendline breaks. I wait for the breaks and then look for my entry.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Edited November 19, 2009 by thalestrader

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Folks,

 

Current EURUSD.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Current EURUSD.

 

... and a closer look.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[johnjohn1hew 10]

Yes indeed Gabe. I probably didn't express myself well. What I meant is would TT have considered placing stop entry orders under those bars (which would not have triggered).

 

1 would not have triggered - but was it a potential trade?

2 would trigger on bar 3

3 would trigger on bar 4.

 

Where either of those (2&3) up for consideration? I would have probably considered 3 long too but that did not trigger either.

 

I don't want to ruffle feathers here nor upset anyone, but to me, bars are irrelevant. Dbphoenix and others are always saying this... Price is moving, you trade the movements...This approach could be done using a line chart, but the range of price is important. I just want to keep things simple. I just have a feeling that a lot of focus has been on individual bars lately. Sure, i'm just a beginner (and what do i know, right?), but the theory is sound.

[thalestrader 14]

Current EURUSD

 

If it goes long I'd be looking for +25 and +65 ... if it goes and goes nowhere, I pull the rip cord quickly.

 

If it goes short, I'd be looking at +30 and +70 ... rip cord clause applies.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

I don't want to ruffle feathers here nor upset anyone, but to me, bars are irrelevant. Dbphoenix and others are always saying this... Price is moving, you trade the movements...This approach could be done using a line chart, but the range of price is important. I just want to keep things simple. I just have a feeling that a lot of focus has been on individual bars lately. Sure, i'm just a beginner (and what do i know, right?), but the theory is sound.

 

I've been wanting to say this for a while and for whatever reason I haven't gotten around to it. John is absolutely 100% correct. Bars are irrelevant. A bar is just an arbitrarily selected way to "bundle" price movement.

 

Some here have noted that I sometimes come in "tight," i.e. use few bars to identify an opportunity. Gabe said the other day that he thought you needed at least a certain number of bars before an opportunity presents itself.

 

Watch price move. Trade. Repeat.

 

Look at the chart of the EURJPY in my reply to Blowfish in post #1462. Look at what I say about the bar I label with a "4". What matters is not how many bars price took to get somewhere, what matters is how has price moved. Period.

 

Some have said I seem to have a secret and unknowable way of managing my trades and cutting my losses. I assure you I do not. It is the same thing over and over. I have a good trading friend who always says "Dance with the one that brung ya, and leave with her too.'" What he means is that if you are going to get into a trade because price does xyz, then if it does the same thing but in the opposite direction, get out!

 

If a H-L-LH gets you short, then if price declines and prints a L-H-HL, well, it is time to pull the rip cord, and possibly time to reverse entirely.

 

One of the reasons I do not like mentioning Ross Hook's and Trader Vic 123's is that both understandings tend to place the trader's focus on bars, rather than price levels.

 

John says you can trade this with a line chart. I'll go one farther - when I am trading currency futures, and I am not distracted by other tasks (such as posting on TL) I am watching the DOM only. The chart is always there if I need to check to see if I missed anything, but other wise I just watch where price goes, stops, reverses, etc. In other words, not only do you not need bars to trade this way, you do not need a chart. You just need to see where price is and where it has been in some form or the other.

 

Excellent post John. If the post of the month were still in effect, I'd nominate your post. Anyone struggling with what we are doing here would be well served to print your post and put it in his or her journal.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Edited November 19, 2009 by thalestrader
spelling, typos

[thalestrader 14]

If it goes long I'd be looking for +25 and +65 ... if it goes and goes nowhere, I pull the rip cord quickly.

 

If it goes short, I'd be looking at +30 and +70 ... rip cord clause applies.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Long at 81, rip cord level will be a 72 print (possibly higher if this thing double tops). At any rate, a -9 or so should be about the worst case.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

94 is the level at which I'd go to BE on my stop. It printed 93, so my finger is on the close position button with a hard stop still at 72.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

EUR is a bit indecisive as to what kind of day it is going to have. It is waffling against the USD but, checking back in to our potenital ending diagonal, it is trying to gain strength against the JPY. It is likely not going to make up its mind until US equity markets open and give the marching orders for the day.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Edited November 19, 2009 by thalestrader

[thalestrader 14]

94 is the level at which I'd go to BE on my stop. It printed 93, so my finger is on the close position button with a hard stop still at 72.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

It gave me every opportunity to take it off at BE or even a +2 or so, but against what proved to be better judgment, I let it clip me for -9. However, initial disaster stop choices were -27 or -38. -9 is much easier to make up than a loss 3 to 4 times as large, wouldn't you say?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Cory2679 11]

Thales,

 

I'm fairly new to this forum. I've been lurking for a little while but haven't made any posts, but I'm gonna start with a question...

 

I took the same EURUSD trade you did (albeit 6E), but I saw it a little differently. I'm watching the 15 min and 13 range charts, and I took the trade off the range chart...

 

 

I only trade 1 contract so I only have 1 PT.

 

The way I saw it was that price had obviously bounced off the support, then took another attempt and failed, so then I was looking to go long.

 

I was just curious if you consider my execution as a suitable way to handle the move, or if you disagree and why.

 

I've been studing the approach for a couple weeks and began sim trading it this week, and so far I've pretty much approached setups the same way you have, except this one, hence the question.

 

Thanks.