Reading Charts in Real Time

[Gabe2004 10]

:yes sir: G'day - I'm here! Adjusting to the new sleep schedule means I generally won't be starting up till around this time (1500-1600 local time). It's all a bit fragmented right now, but I just woke up from a 3 hour nap. I haven't explored the markets with my eyes yet - but I'll get stuck in now! :yes sir:

 

With kind regards,

MK

 

PS: Don, I agree with Thales - maybe you could expand more what you are meaning with respect to fractals. Thanks in advance.

 

Make The Fractal Your Friend

This could be what Don is refering to except that it seems that he is anticipating the reversal rather than waiting to confirm it.

 

Gabe

[thalestrader 14]

This could be what Don is referring to except that it seems that he is anticipating the reversal rather than waiting to confirm it.

 

Gabe

 

I am likewise not opposed to anyone posting trades based upon some approach different from what I am doing, so long as a chart is posted along with an explanation as to how the trader came by his or her decisions.

 

Rule of the thread - if you are going to post charts and trades, you must be willing to share how you came to make your decision to take and manage the trade - no secrets, no magic, just the facts. Don4 doesn't strike me as someone who is out to sell anything, and so I would assume he would welcome the opportunity to share his approach with us.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[MidKnight 12]

Reporting for duty :yes sir:

 

Nice movement in Asia today. Most of what I looked through was coming up on S/R areas so I would be preferring more pullback rather than something shallow and simple. EUR/USD still has some room to go before I can see any S/R I would deem as noteworthy. Here is a possible idea for it.

 

EDIT: 2215 EST, or maybe the other way?

Edited November 19, 2009 by MidKnight

[thalestrader 14]

On nights like this, what are you watching for? Are you looking for price to move down, pick a support level and begin to print signs of movement in the other direction? Or are you watching for levels to be broken, produce a pullback/flip towards that level and going with the temporary direction down?

 

Once I suspect that there may a large move getting underway, I will often lift my PT2 and trail a stop to catch more of that move.

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[forrestang 10]

Once I suspect that there may a large move getting underway, I will often lift my PT2 and trail a stop to catch more of that move.

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

What if you are already flat? I guess I am asking what your thoughts are about tonight in regards to a game plan for you trading. Not an example necessarily.....so I am just attempting to pick the brain of the only experienced trader I know of posting ACTUAL examples of what's going on in your mind as it happens.

[thalestrader 14]

Nice movement in Asia today. Most of what I looked through was coming up on S/R areas so I would be preferring more pullback rather than something shallow and simple. EUR/USD still has some room to go before I can see any S/R I would deem as noteworthy. Here is a possible idea for it.

 

 

I can also see this side of it too.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[MidKnight 12]

What if you are already flat? I guess I am asking what your thoughts are about tonight in regards to a game plan for you trading. Not an example necessarily.....so I am just attempting to pick the brain of the only experienced trader I know of posting ACTUAL examples of what's going on in your mind as it happens.

 

A good query I think. I know that when I have been day trading indexes and it starts putting in a strong directional move, my natural instinct is to fade fade fade. It's no surprise that on rip roaring trends I get hammered doing that, but I have such a hard time participating with a strong move after it has already move so far. I too would love to hear your thoughts on forrest's query.

 

With kind regards,

MK

[thalestrader 14]

What if you are already flat? I guess I am asking what your thoughts are about tonight in regards to a game plan for you trading. Not an example necessarily.....so I am just attempting to pick the brain of the only experienced trader I know of posting ACTUAL examples of what's going on in your mind as it happens.

 

If I'm flat and I think the move is going to continue I sell lower lows and I buy higher highs.

 

We've been focusing on the H-L-LH and L-H-HL for much of the last two weeks, and that is indeed a very important compnent of my approach, but I have posted plenty of examples of me buying break ups to new rally highs and break downs to new rally lows.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[MidKnight 12]

I can also see this side of it too.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Just an observation - have you noticed how the same pattern is occurring across many of the pairs at the same time? Does it factor into your thinking / pair selection? (I know you try not to think consciously, but subconsciously maybe )

[forrestang 10]

Current position. Hopefully I'll get a better trade than BE on this one? I might split this trade if it starts to stall.

[Gabe2004 10]

A good query I think. I know that when I have been day trading indexes and it starts putting in a strong directional move, my natural instinct is to fade fade fade. It's no surprise that on rip roaring trends I get hammered doing that, but I have such a hard time participating with a strong move after it has already move so far. I too would love to hear your thoughts on forrest's query.

 

With kind regards,

MK

 

Many of have bought books that were useless.

I am under the opinion that even if I get one good idea from a book, then it was worth it.

One such book is Al Brooks' book and the 2 most important things I learned from it are:

1. Enter on a STOP

2. A trend will continue far longer than we think.

 

Gabe

[MidKnight 12]

Hi folks,

 

I'm willing to try and play for GJ breaking out of its multi-day coil.

 

EDIT: 2236 EST, noted that UJ is at 15m support zone....

[thalestrader 14]

I can also see this side of it too.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

I am not trading this, and I will soon be turning in for the night, but here is a case were price would have nicked me into the trade and immediately rewarded me with a resounding stall. This is a case where I'd bring my stop up to -2,-3,-4 ticks or so. If stopped out, I would re-enter a tick above the new high.

 

I have mentioned Mike Reed in other threads here at TL. One thing I learned from Mike is that every trade starts as a scalp. You can always re-enter if price confirms the trades direction. But honestly, every time I enter, I expect price to move quickly and decisively in my favor. Failure to do so often spells trouble. Entry was a buy stop at 1.4930, with a 1.4915 stop loss. Why sit there and hold for a possible -15 tick loss? Cut it at -4, and and set a buy stop for at 1.4932 to get back in. Be ruthless in the protection of yourself.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Edited November 19, 2009 by thalestrader
spelling

[thalestrader 14]

I know that when I have been day trading indexes and it starts putting in a strong directional move, my natural instinct is to fade fade fade. It's no surprise that on rip roaring trends I get hammered doing that, but I have such a hard time participating with a strong move after it has already move so far. I too would love to hear your thoughts on forrest's query.

 

Get a demo account, and from now on, every time you fade a trend on a trend day, take a trade with the trend in your demo account. I'll bet that 9/10 times, at the end of the day, you'd gladly trade your real PnL for the demo PnL.

 

The easiest money you will ever make will be resisting the urge to fade the strong move and instead jsut keep buying new highs and selling new lows.

 

If you insist on fading, then at least wait for price to indicate that it might be ready to react against the trend, at least temporarily.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Edited November 19, 2009 by thalestrader

[MidKnight 12]

I am not trading this, and I will soon be turning in for the night, but here is a case were price would have nicked me into the trade and immediately rewarded me with a resounding stall. This is a case where I'd bring my stop up to -2,-3,-4 ticks or so. If stopped out, I would re-enter a tick above the new high.

 

I have mentioned Mike Reed in other threads here at TL. One thing I learned from Mike is that every trade starts as a scalp. You can always re-enter if price confirms the trades direction. But honestly, every time I enter, I expect price to move quickly and decisively in my favor. Failure to do so often spells trouble. Entry was a buy stop at 1.4930, with a 1.4915 stop loss. Why sit there and hold for a possible -15 tick loss? Cut it at -4, and and set a buy stop for at 1.4932 to get back in. Be ruthless in the protection of yourself.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

That is an awesome post, I am pasting that into my trading wisdom scrapbook. Thanks for the comment.

[thalestrader 14]

I am not trading this, and I will soon be turning in for the night, but here is a case were price would have nicked me into the trade and immediately rewarded me with a resounding stall. This is a case where I'd bring my stop up to -2,-3,-4 ticks or so. If stopped out, I would re-enter a tick above the new high.

 

I have mentioned Mike Reed in other threads here at TL. One thing I learned from Mike is that every trade starts as a scalp. You can always re-enter if price confirms the trades direction. But honestly, every time I enter, I expect price to move quickly and decisively in my favor. Failure to do so often spells trouble. Entry was a buy stop at 1.4930, with a 1.4915 stop loss. Why sit there and hold for a possible -15 tick loss? Cut it at -4, and and set a buy stop for at 1.4932 to get back in. Be ruthless in the protection of yourself.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Last thought and then I'm going to bed: Think about the above, and then consider this: Which is easier for you to make up, a -4 tick loss or a -15 tick loss?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[MidKnight 12]

Get a demo account, and from now on, every time you fade a trend on a trend day, take a trade with the trend in your demo account. I'll be that 9/10 times, at the end of the day, you'd gladly trade your real PnL for the demo PnL.

 

The easiest money you will ever make will be resisting the urge to fade the strong move and instead jsut keep buying new highs and selling new lows.

 

If you insist on fading, then at least wait for price to indicate that it might be ready to react against the trend, at least temporarily.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Yes Thales, that is part of my purpose of exploring what you are doing. It isn't comfortable for me to trade like this, but I'm hoping through the exploration I will end up surprised and change how I'm trading for the better.

[thalestrader 14]

Why sit there and hold for a possible -15 tick loss? Cut it at -4, and and set a buy stop for at 1.4932 to get back in. Be ruthless in the protection of yourself.

 

Remember this one?

"I'd rather be out wishing I was in than in wishing I was out"

[thalestrader 14]

This really is my last one, but I think this is an important lesson. Others may not agree with this type of cut and re-enter, but it has saved me many an anguished moment over the years. Yes, it means that had it reversed and hit PT1 I would have made 6 fewer ticks (-4 on the loss and -2 on a less favorable re-entry. But folks, if you trade this approach and price stalls like this, it is not doing what the approach anticipated. Don't hope. Get out, and wait for the next opportunity. If you do get out and you do not enter a rentry orer, price then goes in the anticipated direction, don't be angry. It's just a coincidence at that point. Wait for the next opportunity.

 

If you look at this EURUSD trade, it sat there for 8 minutes before breaking down. If you trade this approach, price should not be sitting at entry after 8 minutes.

 

Best Wishes, and Good Night,

 

Thales

[Don4 10]

Make The Fractal Your Friend

This could be what Don is refering to except that it seems that he is anticipating the reversal rather than waiting to confirm it.

 

Gabe

Gabe you are correct.

 

Midnight I noticed this a while back too, so now I only trade 1 pair. But I think it could be traded on anything across the board. With some exceptions .This is a picture I sent to a friend. Notice in red is how I get my lines and blue is how I would enter a trade like Gabe said I anticipate the reversal through fractals or support and resistance. Brownsfan has already posted this system I guess he noticed the same thing.

[Dinerotrader 10]

If you look at this EURUSD trade, it sat there for 8 minutes before breaking down. If you trade this approach, price should not be sitting at entry after 8 minutes.

 

Thales

 

Just another look at this Euro setup since apparently we were all watching it trying to determine if trend would reverse at support. I have been experimenting with trend lines lately and when I saw support get broken and quickly reverse back above it, my gaze turned to the trend line. Price came back from support and found resistance at the trend line again which kept me on the sidelines. Then price broke the trend line which got price to jump a little but I don't trust trend lines breaks enough to jump in. I wanted a HH made after the first move up to feel like odds were in my favor for a full trend reversal off of that support. It never made that HH so I never got in.

 

Just a quick note on trend lines. I am still experimenting with them. When I began trading I thought they were simply the mere tendency of a chart watcher to find order out of chaos when no real order existed. I have seen their accuracy in providing such great entries so many times that I can't help but use them right now. I should probably read some trendline books at this point to see what great minds have said on the subject. Up to now, I watch and use them and just take notes from my own PA observations.

 

Good night.

 

[MidKnight 12]

Thanks Don, that is very clear now - good post!

 

With kind regards,

MK

[MidKnight 12]

I'd like to just dart back to the trade mgmt immediately after the entry is triggered for a moment. A few days ago, Gabe's stops seemed to come up for discussion in that they appeared to be at non-logical levels. Gabe could confirm it for us, but it probably wasn't his stops we were seeing but instead just his exit. In retrospect, Gabe was probably doing what Thales has been talking about here. Taking a small loss and re-entering. Sound about right Gabe?

[MidKnight 12]

...................................

[forrestang 10]

I'd like to just dart back to the trade mgmt immediately after the entry is triggered for a moment. A few days ago, Gabe's stops seemed to come up for discussion in that they appeared to be at non-logical levels. Gabe could confirm it for us, but it probably wasn't his stops we were seeing but instead just his exit. In retrospect, Gabe was probably doing what Thales has been talking about here. Taking a small loss and re-entering. Sound about right Gabe?

 

Are you referring to this sequence of discussion?

 

And here is UC as I found it this morning.

About 100 pips higher.

So I picked the direction correctly but still lost $$$.

 

I looked at my initial entry with the profit target and the stop loss.

It seems that I did not give the trade enough breathing room.

 

Gabe

 

If the play was long it looks like an outright losing trade eventually. As price made that big swing low before moving up, which would have taken most of us out.

 

Your stops don't seem logical. It seems like you're not using any type of swing point or anything, and just throwing up stops in the middle of nowhere? Am i right or is there a rhyme or reason I'm not seeing?

 

Here is a picture illustrating what I was saying.

You are right about the point I was taken out.

I did not wait for the swing point because i was tired and went to sleep, so I closed the trade for a small loss.

 

Gabe

The picture I marked up is above.

 

Looking back on it, I wonder? Initially him getting taken out when he did seemed like it didn't make sense to me.

 

But based on this, does it look like after entry price moved enough INITIALLY to want to stay in the trade?

 

Thales brings up a good point. Some trades just fill you and immediately fall on it's face, w/o moving in the direction at all. I haven't trained my eye to recognize this obviously.