Reading Charts in Real Time

[thalestrader 14]

A 4 hour look at the G/J. Price has been coiling for some time. The BO should produce some nice trades.

 

Hi Forrest,

 

How are you trading based on this?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[forrestang 10]

Hi Forrest,

 

How are you trading based on this?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

I'm not sure I know the answer to this? Is this a trick question?

 

But to put it simply, of the 4 pairs I watch regularly, G/J is one of the pairs I won't be taking any trades on for a while. To me the entire area looks like chop. Particularly since Friday, the range got even tighter.

 

I'm sure there is a way to trade it, but I think we'd all be better of just waiting for it to make a decision one way or the other.

[johnjohn1hew 10]

Goes to show you what over-observation can do. Observe and analyze what you want, but only trade what is obvious - requires discipline...patience. It would foolish if i did not try to learn something from everything i do.

[Don4 10]

............................

 

[Don4 10]

Now watch for the 15m.

[Don4 10]

........................

[MidKnight 12]

EURJPY opportunity. This is countertrend as the movement is still in the main downtrend supply line. It is on the demand line of a new uptrend that could go up to the main supply line, but who knows....

 

EDIT: you can't see the main supply line of the main trend (down) - sorry.

 

Hi JohnJohn,

 

You could play this one either way - how com you are choosing to play it for longs if you have the trend as down?

 

With kind regards,

MK

[thalestrader 14]

Now watch for the 15m.

 

Two things, Don4 ...

 

1) Here is my look at the current EURUSD. I have this showing a possible short, but this could easily switch to a long. In the end, nothing seems to be swinging tonight, and I'm happy just to go to bed early and see what tomorrow brings. And,

 

2) My daughter finds your avatar creepy, and I have to say, so do I. Nothing personal, but for now I will be putting you on ignore. You are free to post here, of course, and you are free to keep your avatar. If you change the avatar, I'll take you off ignore. But my daughter is here with me a good bit, so I have to do what I have to do.

 

Thank you for sharing with us.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Here is the current GBPUSD, just poking up for a possible long. Maybe its me, but just about anything feels forced tonight. Maybe once Frankfurt and London wakes up so will the markets.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Don4 10]

.................

[johnjohn1hew 10]

Hi JohnJohn,

 

You could play this one either way - how com you are choosing to play it for longs if you have the trend as down?

 

With kind regards,

MK

 

Like i said, i saw a countertrend opportunity. Price was in a defined uptrend within the main downtrend. It was right on the demand line...thought i saw a good opportunity for a long. My analysis was just based on the trend lines. Makes me even more convinced to stick to trades that are in-sync with the main trend.

[Kiwi 16]

Yes peewee varies a bit. In its best months its 60% plus and in its worst it drops to 40%. Always significantly bigger wins than losses.

[thalestrader 14]

Well, what do you know ... USDCAD looks like the real deal.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Don4 10]

Two things, Don4 ...

 

1) Here is my look at the current EURUSD. I have this showing a possible short, but this could easily switch to a long. In the end, nothing seems to be swinging tonight, and I'm happy just to go to bed early and see what tomorrow brings. And,

 

2) My daughter finds your avatar creepy, and I have to say, so do I. Nothing personal, but for now I will be putting you on ignore. You are free to post here, of course, and you are free to keep your avatar. If you change the avatar, I'll take you off ignore. But my daughter is here with me a good bit, so I have to do what I have to do.

 

Thank you for sharing with us.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

For you and your daughter I will change it.

[thalestrader 14]

For you and your daughter I will change it.

 

She's in bed now, but I think she'll like your new one.

 

I hope you keep sharing with us.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

At this point i'm just pissed, frazzled, cursing, and i'm calling it quits for the day. Should've been a solid winning day but I screwed it up.

 

Are you sure it wasn't my fault?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[johnjohn1hew 10]

Well, what do you know ... USDCAD looks like the real deal.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

It's interesting that this move is basically taking place right off the demand line from the trend that started yesterday.

Edited November 18, 2009 by johnjohn1hew

[MidKnight 12]

Hey Thales :yes sir:

 

I was thinking more about the S/R stuff and thought that maybe you put more emphasis on the recent past few days trade than you would on say S/R from a couple weeks or a month ago - would you say that is true? I know every situation is unique, but just meaning in general. I have been doing the opposite, putting more faith in the obvious S/R, but it is usually weeks or months ago - maybe that is part of my problem. Not assessing the recent past few days action properly while approaching the bigger picture S/R.

 

Thanks in advance for the info.

 

Signed,

Private MK

Edited November 18, 2009 by MidKnight

[BlowFish 10]

Here is the E/U, but I don't really like the size of the stop that is required, so decided to miss this one. Two charts, a 5 and 15m showing the trade.

 

Has anyone ever seen a trade they like, and decide to wait for another swing in which you intend to wait in order to reduce the size of your initial stop?

 

Often. A couple of days ago I wrote about 'backing and filling'. Any time the swings from the end of the previous move are large but without much directional progress being made, you will likely have potential targets closer than stops.Of course when no directional progress is being made you have chop, however you often get 'lazy' movement (especially at the end of a move where momentum is waning). Price is moving just with large retracements after each push. Thales suggested a couple of possibilities for managing an example I posted.

[MidKnight 12]

Aloha,

 

Here is a possibility with the euro right now, If this fail here we could get some good down, but I think I'll use a different pair like AUD/USD for that if it ends up happening, since it is hitting the R from yesterday as I type this.

 

EDIT: 0346 EST, long and moved stop to 1.4898

 

EDIT: 0401 EST, moving stop to BE

Edited November 18, 2009 by MidKnight

[BlowFish 10]

Hi Folks,

 

Just got in, and I see that the USDCAD declined to reach its second target, and added some on for good measure.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

This was an interesting chart. http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachments/208/15423d1258496942-reading-charts-real-time-11-17-2009-usdcad5.jpg (linked for convenience)

 

I can certainly see the 123 but it dosen't look that 'well formed' to me. (I would be unsurprised to find some bucket shop feeds showing a pip HH at 3). To be honest the action looks like a 'box' or ledge to me (if you'll pardon the pattern reference). Still as I review the thread paying a bit more attention I notice other examples like this.

 

Coupled with the fact that immediate resistance had broken and the 'box' was sitting on top of it I would have been just as inclined (actually more inclined) to conciser a long (which fortunately would not have triggered). Of course I would have been mistaken which gives a great opportunity to better my understanding.

 

So formation and context I guess on the former (formation) this and any number of other examples are there own answer.

 

I also notice that the 3 bar was also the entry bar and immediately followed the 2/trigger bar. No issues with that just an observation

[BlowFish 10]

Well, what do you know ... USDCAD looks like the real deal.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Now that's something even I can see!

[BlowFish 10]

Hey Thales :yes sir:

 

I was thinking more about the S/R stuff and thought that maybe you put more emphasis on the recent past few days trade than you would on say S/R from a couple weeks or a month ago - would you say that is true? I know every situation is unique, but just meaning in general. I have been doing the opposite, putting more faith in the obvious S/R, but it is usually weeks or months ago - maybe that is part of my problem. Not assessing the recent past few days action properly while approaching the bigger picture S/R.

 

Thanks in advance for the info.

 

Signed,

Private MK

 

I know in the past when I have focused on a a particular index you actually get to remember levels (I know a couple of people who trade without charts, they just remember key levels, my memory isn't that good anymore). The fresher the level the fresher the memory though significant levels of course persist both as S/R and in your mind for longer. Not what you asked really.

 

I must say all the currencies, what with there wierd fractional components don't seem to stick for me.

 

Conventional wisdom would have that 'obvious' SR is 'best' (perhaps 'strongest' is a more appropriate word) as everyone will be aware of it.

[MidKnight 12]

Aloha,

 

Here is a possibility with the euro right now, If this fail here we could get some good down, but I think I'll use a different pair like AUD/USD for that if it ends up happening, since it is hitting the R from yesterday as I type this.

 

EDIT: 0346 EST, long and moved stop to 1.4898

 

EDIT: 0401 EST, moving stop to BE

 

 

Filled on T1 for 27pips and stop at 1.4915

 

EDIT: 0459, Filled T2 at 1.4957 for 47pips. 3/4ths of the position is gone now.

Edited November 18, 2009 by MidKnight

[MidKnight 12]

Filled on T1 for 27pips and stop at 1.4915

 

EDIT: 0459, Filled T2 at 1.4957 for 47pips. 3/4ths of the position is gone now.

 

Moved stop up 1.4937. Maybe premature as it hasn't taken out the high yet...

 

EDIT: 0619, possible LH in the making.

 

EDIT: 0639, closed trade at 1.4969 for 59 pips. It's stalling here and I'm not going to be a dick for a tick tonight. Target was set for 1.4975. The gain on the trade averaged across exits was 40 pips. A decent result I thought, especially since the risk was so quickly reduced because it moved. Probably my first real feel for getting things moving as soon as it broke out.

Edited November 18, 2009 by MidKnight