Reading Charts in Real Time

[thalestrader 14]

I have attached some commentary and an update to the sequences...

 

Hi ehorn,

 

Are you using volume to identify and distinguish dom from non-dom trend? From your posts of FAZ, I presume you are interpreting the dominant trend for FAZ to be toward higher prices. If so, is this a recent change from down to up according to your approach, or do you view the entire down trend from the all time high to be non-dominant?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Folks,

 

6J 15 minute chartss is working on what William O'Neil would consider a very nice "cup with handle" base if this were a daily or weekly stock chart.

 

Of course, O'Neil himself is a breakout trader, and the proper buy point would be above the 164 high of the right side of the base.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Of course, O'Neil himself is a breakout trader, and the proper buy point would be above the 164 high of the right side of the base.

 

... And there is a reason to wait for breakouts at proper points.

[ehorn 10]

Hi ehorn,

 

Are you using volume to identify and distinguish dom from non-dom trend? From your posts of FAZ, I presume you are interpreting the dominant trend for FAZ to be toward higher prices. If so, is this a recent change from down to up according to your approach, or do you view the entire down trend from the all time high to be non-dominant?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Yes, volume (and price) is used to identify DOM or NON-DOM. More specifically, the sequences of volume within the containers (Trendlines) of price. This is the cornerstone of the principles and their application.

 

As mentioned previously, I believe these principles are applicable to any market - and equities is a starting point (some reasons mentioned above). Typically equities use a "culling" process which draws out stocks meeting certain criteria desirable for spotting new trends (a time saver for those who apply the techniques to equities). I am using FAZ here as a quasi-proxy for the broader market in an effort to demonstrate the principles and their application.

 

Today seemed significant to me in that it appeared that the broader market completed the sequences for this most recent up move, signalling a change in the trend. According to the price and volume sequences, as I have tracked them, this trend in FAZ (current down channel) appears to be also completing and so I am anticipating a new trend (up channel for FAZ) to begin. I am considering this new up trend to be dominant for FAZ just as I consider the beginning of the broader market trend (down) to be dominant.

 

I also view this trend as a resumption of the movement whos price container began last fall and I consider now to be Point 3 of this larger container (part of the higher [or slower if you will] fractal).

 

HTH

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Folks,

 

I may try to get back to the desk tomorrow. Here is a quick look at current S/R on the 6B (GBPUSD futures).

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[ehorn 10]

Attached are my updates to the sequences...

Edited October 14, 2009 by ehorn

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Folks,

 

Interesting to see how the 6B is vacillating at the earlier noted level (see post #555 above).

 

The GBPUSD has me somewhat befuddled. Daily and weekly price action leads me to have a bearish view of this pair, and the fact that as price digs into support it is chipping away deeper and deeper likewise lead me to a bearish opinion. But, each chip deeper is met with renewed buying interest, which, at the very least, humbles me and keeps me from putting "both arms in the bear suit," as they used to say.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Folks,

 

Interesting to see how the 6B is vacillating at the earlier noted level (see post #555 above).

 

The relevance of that level continues.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Folks,

 

Sorry for the later post, I should be back to normal within a few days. Long HOG & AN and waiting to get long LM.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[forrestang 10]

Interesting look at E/U, right bfore FOMC as well.

 

Daily and 15min attached.

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Folks,

 

Sorry for the later post, I should be back to normal within a few days. Long HOG & AN and waiting to get long LM.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Hi Folks,

 

2/3 today:

 

HOG: -$0.44 (Bought at 26.45, stopped 26.01)

AN: +$0.20 (Bought at 19.20, sold 19.40)

LM: +$1.10 (Bought 31.65, sold 32.75)

 

I took some screen captures but I am having trouble with the files. I'll try to upload them if I can resolve the problem without losing the data.

 

I took two 6J trades today as well, but I was unable to load the screen shots.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[brownsfan019 17]

Thales - nice to see some stock charts again!

 

Were these stock plays gap up plays and buying above the high of the first 5 min bar?

[thalestrader 14]

Were these stock plays gap up plays and buying above the high of the first 5 min bar?

 

Yes, Brownie, that is exactly how I traded them. In fact, I think it safe to say that 99% of my stock day trades are the exact same situation. HOG turned tail quickly and stopped me out after having spent very little time in positive territory basis my long entry. I basically stopped myself out of LM and AN for no other reason than I had an appointment out of the office and so I was done for the day. LM has managed to tack on another 75 pennies or more since I exited, and even AN has managed to chop a bit higher than my exit.

 

I am still having difficulty with my screenhunter files.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[ehorn 10]

What must come next (for my anticipated place within the sequences for FAZ) did not today (I was looking for Increasing Black Volume) - and the stop took me out in mid-morning for a 0.61/share loss.

 

The sequences revealed that - my entry was early with point 3 arriving too deep for my initial stop-loss setting (PT3 will be arriving early A.M tomorrow). I may look for another entry then and if so I will come back and share my analysis.

 

Thanks for letting me share the routine I perform with you on your thread. I enjoyed it and hope to do it again some time.

[Kiwi 16]

Last couple of days have been kind of boring

- tuesday was -46 points

- wednesday was +12 points

 

Today was more interesting at +199 points. One last picture. I don't really think that posting system trades quite meets the thread objective

 

.

[Gabe2004 10]

We are in the 50% retracement area since the bottom in January to the recent high in August.

It's a long shot but 151.40 looks like a reasonable target.

Going out on a limb here, it should take about a month to get there.

 

Gabe

 

 

We are half way there (GJ)

 

Gabe

[thalestrader 14]

Last couple of days have been kind of boring

- tuesday was -46 points

- wednesday was +12 points

 

Today was more interesting at +199 points. One last picture. I don't really think that posting system trades quite meets the thread objective

 

Hi Kiwi,

 

If you didn't feel it would be giving away too much, you could always post your charts as your system signals an entry (and thus present it in real time rather than after the trade). But, I do understand how much work goes into putting together a working auto-traded system, and therefore I fully respect that you may not want to post your trades as your system manifests its entry points.

 

I do like the fact that I can see your entries, stops, etc even after the fact. It is interesting to me to compare how your algo trades a market to how I myself might have traded it. So, it is up to you. As far as I am concerned, your posts here are welcome, and I feel that it up to the beholder to determine for him or herself whether or not he or she can make someone else's contribution relevant to one's own trading or not.

 

Thank you for sharing with us.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Dinerotrader 10]

I am short at this resistance point hoping for a pullback. The PA is making concerned. I would think a quicker pullback would have occured but there seems to be some steam behind this push upward.

 

[thalestrader 14]

We are half way there (GJ)

 

Gabe

 

Nice read, Gabe!

 

Remarkable rally for the Pound. Here is an updated GBPJPY chart I had posted a few weeks ago. I was anticipating a breakdown out the consolidation, but the Pound decided to breakup instead.

 

Years ago in her seminar, Linda Raschke, said that "sometimes a consolidation is not a continuation pattern - sometimes its a reversal." I should say so!

 

I do not know if the recent GBP strength is going to continue, or if the downtrend will reassert itself. But either way, today's rally was what my grandpop used to call a "a real humdinger."

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Thanks for letting me share the routine I perform with you on your thread. I enjoyed it and hope to do it again some time.

 

I appreciate any real time analysis demonstrating the application of your principles that you are willing to share. Thank you for this example, and I look forward to your future contributions.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

I am short at this resistance point hoping ..

 

Hoping, Dinero? Sounds a bit too emotional to me.

 

I shorted the 6J at 11045 (I would have sold at 057 but I was out this morning and by the time I was able to open my platform open I missed the first 12 ticks). I bought 3 of them back at 11020, and I am hoping to buy the other two back at 10984.

 

Hoping.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Dinerotrader 10]

Got stopped out exactly at my stop out price which also happed earlier today so the emotions are a little higher right now. I'll work on that. I should have cut it loose at the pullback for a small profit since price didn't act as seems best for a reversal. The previous reversals all just touched the resistance and headed back on down. This one retested several times and then pulled back slightly to regain some steam. Some more paid for education.

 

[thalestrader 14]

The previous reversals all just touched the resistance and headed back on down. This one retested several times and then pulled back slightly to regain some steam. Some more paid for education.

 

Just as important as how price acted at resistance is the manner in which it got there. That was some pretty bullish price action if you ask me (I know you didn't). You should print that chart out and pin it on your wall. Of course, all rallies come to an end sooner or later, and no one evr knows for sure where or when sooner or later will come. I know that many here at TL (Db comes to mind as an excellent example) sell resistance and buy support as you did here. But they do so based upon what price does once it gets to S/R, and they do not simply take price reaching S/R as a signal in and of itself. You might find Db's "Trading in Foresight" thread particularly helpful inthis regard. I think it is one of the best threads on any forum anywhere.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

I bought 3 of them back at 11020, and I am hoping to buy the other two back at 10984

 

Stopped at 11045 on the remaining two.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Dinerotrader 10]

That was some pretty bullish price action if you ask me (I know you didn't)

 

I always appreciate yours as well as anyone's comments. I'm am here to learn, period.

 

I rarely catch reversals since price normally hits resistance and falls back down very quickly. This was a rare occasion that I actually was watching and was able to act. IMO, you can't normally watch price action before entering these reversals since price normally reverses back and the trade is gone in a matter of seconds.

However, I should have moved my stop within a couple cents of my short once price started retesting resistance and trailed it closely which would have brought me a profit on this one. If you look at the past reversals of this stock you'll see that the tests of resistance were quick and the reversal was immediate.

 

I am still looking forward to trading breakouts once daylight savings time changes. Right now I am commuting during that prime time.