Reading Charts in Real Time

[thalestrader 14]

Don't know what's going to happen, so I'm just messing around;)

 

Green is initial targets, reds are entries and stops. I'll trail if I get a fill and try to update thread.

 

Yen looks strong across the board and a break above 10774 should coincide with your short entry on the EURJPY.

[thalestrader 14]

Yen looks strong across the board and a break above 10774 should coincide with your short entry on the EURJPY.

 

There's the break ...

[thalestrader 14]

There's the break ...

 

... and first resistance ...

[forrestang 10]

..How has the NQ trading been going for you? You had looked to be doing some excellent work before the summer hiatus. ...

 

Yo!

 

My trading..... haha I went live with NQ then started doing dumb stuff. Way overcomplicated things. Simplified my approach greatly, now have free time to play with FX, thanks to the help of a TL member, started ES and have been on a tear recently!

 

Have been trying to adopt the "Thales Style" of simplicity to trading the FX.

 

It may be clearer if youcould mark the entry color different than the stops.

Thales explained it. Now the long entry I had is cancelled, just playing the short side so we'll see what happens. This is pretty much the material Thales' 9 year old daughter teaches in her online webinars. See pic below for current trade and what's going on now.

 

and first resistance .

Interesting you post that. I haven't been paying attention to those correlations. I am just messing around w/the FX. But as soon as you posted the 'break,' my entry triggered.

 

Then when you posted first resistance..... BAM, now I'm sitting through this retracement.

[forrestang 10]

Whew, hopefuly I didn't pick the wrong P1, and hopefully haven't squeezed the stop too tight? Soooo close though, nice to watch.

 

Oh well, it's a process. 1 trade of many to come!!!!

 

I'm going to sleep for a bit.

 

FP out!!!

 

Edited September 8, 2009 by forrestang

[thalestrader 14]

... and first resistance ...

 

... and once it punched through that level it had unfettered access to the next resistance level, and it has been trading on either side of that level for several hours.

 

At the Tokyo open, the Yen was showing strength against the majors, but that strength only stucj against the USD.

[forrestang 10]

So a bit of a good news bad news situation here.

 

For the Eur/Jpy poistion:

 

Good news, is price never made it to my anticipated stop before hitting P1, where stop is moved to BreakEven.

 

Bad news, is I still have to get better at placing orders based on my intentions as my order filled waaay before price got to my adj stop. See picture.

 

For the Eur/Usd Position:

Good news. price blew through both P1 and P2 after the breakout without looking back.

 

Bad news, this happened while I was sleep, as I would like to trail P2 via natural stop vs. a fixed target, there was much more left on the table. I need to figure out how to use this broker's platform.

[thalestrader 14]

Bad news, is I still have to get better at placing orders based on my intentions as my order filled waaay before price got to my adj stop. See picture.

 

The perils of trading retail forex, especially for relatively small profit targets - the spread is nt a market spread (no matter what your broker wishes to tell you), and therefore, you are subject to stop outs that defy typical trading logic. I also see that not only did price not trade at your stop level, but they clipped you for an extra bit on the fill.

 

I had my daughter add the 1-2 times the spread to her stop loss levels, and subtract 1-2 times the spread from her profit objectives, and that solved some of the problems inherent to trading with a bucket shop.

[Gabe2004 10]

Since prior peaks act more often than not as S/R points I think that it makes more sense to trade counter the move that got us to the previous S/R level.

I noticed that a prior Peak or Trough will be revisited several times before it is crossed, which happens only once.

 

I find that placing a trade above the prior peak (for a breakout trade) or below the prior trough is more risky.

 

Any thoughts about this?

 

Gabe

 

PS Forrest - thanks for the color changes.

[thalestrader 14]

Still short ES from 1018, stop is in, so it is a waiting game.

 

Also short 6B from 1.6547 (sorry for the late post). Profit targets are at +62 ticks (1.6485) and +125 ticks (1.6422). Price is right now bouncing and testing the breakdown point, i.e. price has rallied back to the 1.6547 entry point).

[thalestrader 14]

Still short ES from 1018, stop is in, so it is a waiting game.

 

Also short 6B from 1.6547 (sorry for the late post). Profit targets are at +62 ticks (1.6485) and +125 ticks (1.6422). Price is right now bouncing and testing the breakdown point, i.e. price has rallied back to the 1.6547 entry point).

 

ES still stuck between S/R levels, so I am leaving it alone and waiting for the market to decide which way it wishes to go.

 

6B retraced back above short entry, and has now declined to a slightly lower low than that made soon after thismorning's entry, so the stop loss has been adjusted accordingly.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Since prior peaks act more often than not as S/R points I think that it makes more sense to trade counter the move that got us to the previous S/R level.

I noticed that a prior Peak or Trough will be revisited several times before it is crossed, which happens only once.

 

I find that placing a trade above the prior peak (for a breakout trade) or below the prior trough is more risky.

 

Any thoughts about this?

 

Gabe

 

PS Forrest - thanks for the color changes.

 

I do not usually sell against a resistance level without first waiting for price to show me a reaction against that level, then a rally to a lower high. Today (or rather, yesterday) I did not wait, and instead sold, and that is the trade that is giving me heat.

 

In the end, either way of trading S/R should work well over time so long as the trader is consistent in his or her application.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[forrestang 10]

I do not usually sell against a resistance level without first waiting for price to show me a reaction against that level, then a rally to a lower high. Today (or rather, yesterday) I did not wait, and instead sold, and that is the trade that is giving me heat.

 

In the end, either way of trading S/R should work well over time so long as the trader is consistent in his or her application.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Even though it was obviously a good entry, I've stared at it many times, and your 6B entry has me somewhat vexed. Dont feel the need to explain it if it isn't obvious, as it's hard to explain this type of BO type trading in the first place.

[forrestang 10]

The perils of trading retail forex, especially for relatively small profit targets - the spread is nt a market spread (no matter what your broker wishes to tell you), and therefore, you are subject to stop outs that defy typical trading logic. I also see that not only did price not trade at your stop level, but they clipped you for an extra bit on the fill.

 

I had my daughter add the 1-2 times the spread to her stop loss levels, and subtract 1-2 times the spread from her profit objectives, and that solved some of the problems inherent to trading with a bucket shop.

 

I called the broker about this eroneous fill, and they looked at the trade placed and said that the stop should not have been filled. Saying it was maybe a bad quote/tick on their servers.

 

How often have you seen this type of thing happen? It kinda creeps me out. I suppose i can see why you like futures so much better.

[thalestrader 14]

I called the broker about this eroneous fill, and they looked at the trade placed and said that the stop should not have been filled. Saying it was maybe a bad quote/tick on their servers.

 

How often have you seen this type of thing happen? It kinda creeps me out. I suppose i can see why you like futures so much better.

 

Well, then question is now that it was filled and you booked your loss, how does the broker proceed? Will the broker correct the trade? Do you want it corrected? Or would you have to file a complaint with the NFA to get action?

 

I do not know how often these things happen at MB, though if MB is really an STP platform, then it should not happen at all. From the look of the spreads at MB, I would not want to be paying a commission on top of that spread.

 

Like I said, my daughter traded at FXCM. If her stop loss, based on the chart, was 133.15, then she would place a stop loss at 133.162-133.174 (typical EURJPY spread at FXCM was 1.2 ticks). If her take profit, based upon her reading of the chart, should be 132.50, then her limit order would have been 132.512-132.524 And for profit targets, she would usually +/- 5 ticks from S/R and then add the spread to make sure she'd get a fill if price got close to her target.

[thalestrader 14]

ES still stuck between S/R levels, so I am leaving it alone and waiting for the market to decide which way it wishes to go.

 

6B retraced back above short entry, and has now declined to a slightly lower low than that made soon after thismorning's entry, so the stop loss has been adjusted accordingly.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Not much has changed other than another lower low so another adjustment to the stop on the 6B trade.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Even though it was obviously a good entry, I've stared at it many times, and your 6B entry has me somewhat vexed. Dont feel the need to explain it if it isn't obvious, as it's hard to explain this type of BO type trading in the first place.

 

Stop is now 1.6523

 

I have attached a chart showing the price action relevant to my decision to short highlighted by the blue ellipse. Had price dropped more impulsively toward my targets, then you would likely not find yourself nearly so "vexed" as to the basis of the trade. However, since price has done more of a slow drift sideways to down rather than a dharp decline, the basis of the trade tends to become somewhat obscured.

 

I also attached a screenshot that backs out the price action subsequent to the entry, and in so doing, I have highlighted a similar opportunity from the prior day.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

short 6B from 1.6547 Profit targets are at +62 ticks (1.6485) and +125 ticks (1.6422). Price is right now bouncing and testing the breakdown point, i.e. price has rallied back to the 1.6547 entry point).

 

Well it took all day to get there, but closed 50% at 1.6485 for +62 ticks. Stop loss on remaining 50% is 1.6523, which would be +24 ticks if stopped there. Still holding for 1.6422, or +122 ticks on remaining contracts.

 

 

 

And I'm still getting smoked on my short ES.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Gabe2004 10]

Well it took all day to get there, but closed 50% at 1.6485 for +62 ticks. Stop loss on remaining 50% is 1.6523, which would be +24 ticks if stopped there. Still holding for 1.6422, or +122 ticks on remaining contracts.

 

[ATTACH]13307[/ATTACH]

 

 

And I'm still getting smoked on my short ES.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

 

Hello Thales

 

What is you stop on the ES and could you go through the same reasoning for the ES as you did for the 6B?

 

Thanks

 

Gabe

[thalestrader 14]

Hello Thales

 

What is you stop on the ES and could you go through the same reasoning for the ES as you did for the 6B?

 

Thanks

 

Gabe

 

First off, this ES trade is nothing I would recommend to anyone. As I explained last night, 1018 basis the cash S&P was anticipated resistance. I suspected that the rally in the futures would not stick at the open. Rather than do as I would normally do, i.e. rather than wait for the open and let price prove me right or wrong, and then place my bet, I decided I was smarter than that and opened a position last evening.

 

When I entered the position, my daughter heard the audible alert that I use on my trading platform to signal that a new short position has been opened. So, being curious, and knowing a thing or two now about trading, she asked what I just did. I told her, and showed her the chart. She cocked her head at me, and with more than a trace of sarcasm in both her smile and her voice, asked, "Are you sure you want to do that?" I said that already did it. She said, "It looks like it is going up. Maybe you should undo it."

 

What can I say? I chalk it up to having been out of the markets for most of August, and the loss, should it come to that (an increasingly likely outcome) I will consider tuition in my "continuing education" program. None of which will make me feel any better, by the way. I really do not mind the loss. But I really am disappointed in my lack of discipline in entering this trade.

 

My stop loss is 1028 basis the futures. I'm sure you can figure out why that would be so if you look an ES chart (in an earleier post I have a horizontal line at that level more or less).

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[forrestang 10]

 

......So, being curious, and knowing a thing or two now about trading, she asked what I just did. I told her, and showed her the chart. She cocked her head at me, and with more than a trace of sarcasm in both her smile and her voice, asked, "Are you sure you want to do that?" I said that already did it. She said, "It looks like it is going up. Maybe you should undo it."

 

 

:haha::rofl:

 

.........................

[thalestrader 14]

Well it took all day to get there, but closed 50% at 1.6485 for +62 ticks. Stop loss on remaining 50% is 1.6523, which would be +24 ticks if stopped there. Still holding for 1.6422, or +122 ticks on remaining contracts.

 

Out at +24 on remaining 50%

 

EDIT: 6B actually looks like a good long here - buy @ 16523, profit target 1.6584, stop loss 1.6496, so risk -27 and profit target +62; I'm not trading it, but I would if this were anytime after the Frankfurt open.

Edited September 9, 2009 by thalestrader

[thalestrader 14]

Out at +24 on remaining 50%

 

EDIT: 6B actually looks like a good long here - buy @ 16523, profit target 1.6584, stop loss 1.6496, so risk -27 and profit target +62; I'm not trading it, but I would if this were anytime after the Frankfurt open.

 

Looks even better right now. If you are trading S/R, it will be fairly common that your properly selected stop loss is a good "stop and reverse" point as well. Not always, of course, but it is not unusual, by any means.

 

Again, I did not take this trade, and it is merely an interesting "paper trade" for me.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[forrestang 10]

Missed the breakout, will wait for the pb as if I hit it in the first place. We'll see what happens. Don't know if I'll get a fill?

 

I think there are nice setups in a few of the other pairs as well.

 

 

 

-----EDIT------

If this thing doesn't trigger before lights out, and if it continues on to make a HH, I will call this puppy off. That's when I would be adjusting my stop anyway.

 

----ON ANOTHER NOTE----------

This was beautiful, wow!!!!

 

------EDIT---------

GAME ON!!!!!

Edited September 9, 2009 by forrestang

[thalestrader 14]

Out at +24 on remaining 50%

 

EDIT: 6B actually looks like a good long here - buy @ 16523, profit target 1.6584, stop loss 1.6496, so risk -27 and profit target +62; I'm not trading it, but I would if this were anytime after the Frankfurt open.

 

If I had traded this, stop loss would be a a few ticks (-3) below entry.