Reading Charts in Real Time

[thalestrader 14]

  thalestrader said:

I wanted to post this 6B (Pound Futures) or GBPUSD short trade as it was setting up, but I was busy getting a bunch of orders entered. It has progressed nicely while I was trying to annotate the chart.

 

First chart is the GBPUSD as the trade got started, and the second is the futures contract 6B (it has reached first support/profit target).

 

Stop is now 1.6417 basis 6B

[thalestrader 14]

  thalestrader said:

Stop is now 1.6417 basis 6B

 

 

Covered 6B at 164.04, +33 ticks

 

NUE +21 cents

AET +02 cents

ZMH -1 cent

[thalestrader 14]

COP sell stop 43.09 - Gapped open higher and sold back down to yesterday's close. Retested that low and has tried to rally feebly.

[thalestrader 14]

  thalestrader said:

COP sell stop 43.09 - Gapped open higher and sold back down to yesterday's close. Retested that low and has tried to rally feebly.

 

 

COP -17 cents

 

And that is why I always have a stop - once in a while you get stopped into a trade and the market turns and races against you before you even have time to think.

[thalestrader 14]

ABX looks to have a small H&S bottom on the 5 minute chart - too late for me to trade it, but it is interesting to watch.

[thalestrader 14]

GBPUSD and EURJPY - both short trades, but neither with a terribly attractive R/R profile based on the proximity to potential support. Now, if price reaches that support, and if that support gives way, then you'd be looking at a very favirable R/R scenario.

[thalestrader 14]

double post deleted

 

double post deleted

[thalestrader 14]

  thalestrader said:

GBPUSD and EURJPY - both short trades, but neither with a terribly attractive R/R profile based on the proximity to potential support. Now, if price reaches that support, and if that support gives way, then you'd be looking at a very favirable R/R scenario.

 

Both have declined nicely and reached expected support levels. EURJPY currently has +48 ticks open profit from entry and GBPUSD is currently +41 ticks open profit from entry.

[thalestrader 14]

  thalestrader said:

Both have declined nicely and reached expected support levels. EURJPY currently has +48 ticks open profit from entry and GBPUSD is currently +41 ticks open profit from entry.

 

EURJPY would be stopped out at 132.96 for +28 ticks (natural stop); and the GBPUSD has yet to give us a natural stop other than the one it so kindly presented to us soon after entry at basically breakeven. A sensible stop would have been at 1.6374, which would have been a 50% of open trade equity stop for +22 ticks profit. That may have been premature, as GBPUSD might give us a natural stop and continue its way lower. However, as both are rallying off of anticipated resistance, profit taking is sensible, at least on a portion of the position. A stop above 1.6386 is as close as I can see to a stop based upon what should be resistance.

[BlowFish 10]

Did you concider a long the break out of the double top a wee bit past the 14.58 time stamp?

[thalestrader 14]

  BlowFish said:

Did you concider a long the break out of the double top a wee bit past the 14.58 time stamp?

 

I saw it, but I did not consider an opportunity for a long trade. I actually had considered it a short trade. If you look at the 12:03 bar, which made the "2" low of a 1-2-3 reversal, the low was 1.6439. The buy stop for that double top would have been 1.6437, a two tick spread between the breakout and what should be strong resistance. A rally back to that two point (or a decline back to the 2 point in the case of an upside breakout) for a retest is common enough not to want to take a fresh position right into that support/resistance.

 

In addition to that, I thought that the pattern that had formed between 5:03 am and 8:32, especially as it developed between 7:58 and 8:32, represented a top that would mark the HOD, so I was loking for trades where price was expected to work its way lower.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[BlowFish 10]

It's one I think I would probably have been in two minds about too. There had been a significant LL however the overall action was narrowing kind of pennant like. That in itself would have made me wary. Guess I should thing about changing some holiday money!

[thalestrader 14]

Here is a stock - DVA - nice pattern. Buy stop 48.01. If you are using freestockcharts.com, you will see that the hod was 47.95, but that is data from BATS only, I have included the chart from my trading platform, which consolidates the traders from all exchanges, ecn's etc. The hod is actually 48.00.

[thalestrader 14]

I posted my first GENZ buy in the Stock Trader's Day thread. Here is a second GENZ buy point above the second trendline on this flag. Stop on the whole position is beneath the consolidation at 54.83

 

While typing this I have been stopped in to the second position, but price immediately reversed and raced to stop me out of my whole position.

 

Final result: +14 Pennies on Genz

[thalestrader 14]

Short HESS at 54.36,

 

 

 

This is an excellent short pattern - Mike Reed calls it a "slinky" where price bounces from a low and then sort of just rolls over. Of curse, you will also buy your fair share of low ticks as a stock puts in a double bottom, but the runners you get should make up for the losers. Also, stops should be very tight, as once the new low is penetrated, it should not retrace more than a few pennies above the first low.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Edited June 17, 2009 by thalestrader
spelling

[thalestrader 14]

  thalestrader said:

Also, stops should be very tight, as once the new low is penetrated, it should not retrace more than a few pennies above the first low.

 

That was quick - stopped at 54.22 for + 13 pennies

[thalestrader 14]

  thalestrader said:

Here is a stock - DVA - nice pattern. Buy stop 48.01. If you are using freestockcharts.com, you will see that the hod was 47.95, but that is data from BATS only, I have included the chart from my trading platform, which consolidates the traders from all exchanges, ecn's etc. The hod is actually 48.00.

 

 

No Trade on DVA for me

 

  thalestrader said:

While typing this I have been stopped in to the second position, but price immediately reversed and raced to stop me out of my whole position.

 

GENZ has moved back through its consolidation for another attemoted break out. I did not trade this renewed effort, as price action is lookng wide and loose which is usually a sign that a trend is ending and not picking up steam.

[thalestrader 14]

EURJPY

 

Anyone have any opinions on a Buy Stop at 132.82?

 

If price does not break down here, it looks like we have three pushes into a low, and a tradable rally may ensue.

 

Just thinking "out loud," and I do not wish to imply that I am taking this trade if it occurs.

Edited June 17, 2009 by thalestrader
spelling

[thalestrader 14]

  thalestrader said:

EURJPY

 

Anyone have any opinions on a Buy Stop at 132.82?

 

How about at 132.69?

[thalestrader 14]

  thalestrader said:

How about at 132.69?

 

 

If long at 132.69 stop loss would be 162.64

[BlowFish 10]

Well you seem to have posting charts and trading down to a fine art. I wonder if GENZ gave you a re-entry? Looked a bit like a shakeout to me. Guess with everything down from round that time thats unlikely

[thalestrader 14]

  thalestrader said:

If long at 132.69 stop loss would be 162.64

 

 

A fine promising start, but in the end a -5 tick loss. I would think that a stop on 50% of the profit on 50% of the position would have been in order, especially as the trade was +31 ticks at its high.

 

I never know for sure how I would have managed a trade if I'm not actually in it, but I doubt I would have let this end with even that minimal loss. I probably would have gone out on a market order when it reversed off that 133 round number so quickly without finding any support.

 

And of course, for those who are looking for 10-20 tick scalps, you'd have had your profit.

[thalestrader 14]

  BlowFish said:

Well you seem to have posting charts and trading down to a fine art. I wonder if GENZ gave you a re-entry? Looked a bit like a shakeout to me. Guess with everything down from round that time thats unlikely

 

  thalestrader said:

GENZ has moved back through its consolidation for another attempted break out. I did not trade this renewed effort, as price action is lookng wide and loose which is usually a sign that a trend is ending and not picking up steam.

 

As far as the charts, I have long made it a habit to capture charts of my trades as soon as I have an order placed. It has heped when there have been discrepancy's with brokers, market makers, etc. I also screen capture my order blotter, including each time I adjust my trailing stop.

 

After a while, it became relatively smooth as it is now a habit.

[thalestrader 14]

Here is a potential short opportunity on the EURJPY with entry, stop losses, and profit targets. I would usually have an entry at 134.01, but on a Sunday afternoon I'd might want to see a few more ticks of a break before placeing my chips in the center of the table. Later tonight, once Tokyo opens, then I'd be back to a one tick under/over entry.

 

Full disclosure: I'm not trading this, and neither is my daughter. We're just spectators right now, and not speculators. This is purely for entertainment purposes only.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

  thalestrader said:

Full disclosure: I'm not trading this, and neither is my daughter. We're just spectators right now, and not speculators. This is purely for entertainment purposes only.

 

If I were in this trade for real, I'd move the stop loss on the whole position to 134.31.

 

I did decide to "paper trade" this in an FXCM MT4 demo account I've been playing with for the last week.

 

As you will see, the fill on the "short" was 134.06. This is because I decided to paper trade it after the trade had triggered, so I entered at the market and a bounce resulted in a fill 5 ticks better than I would likely have enjoyed if I had decided to enter on a stop order earlier.

 

You will also see that the stop loss on the whole position is now 134.31, and that the profit limit orders are each for 1/2 of the position.

 

Again, this is a demo account, and not a real trade. As I said in the previous post, I am a spectator on this one.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales