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thalestrader

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  thalestrader said:
We're back to that again, are we?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

lol You caught me! :) I had decided this week I would be allowing some leeway for stop-management, but with a real effort to hold back on the micro-management.

 

That trade, after some lively movement beforehand, went nowhere...it hovered and hovered around my entry, and I thought it was reasonable to bring the stop tighter rather than risking a 1R loss. Had I not moved my stop and let it run, it would have eventually taken me out for a full 1R loss, rather than the -0.3R I took...but yes I know this is just one example...

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  Cory2679 said:
...Had I not moved my stop and let it run, it would have eventually taken me out for a full 1R loss, rather than the -0.3R I took...but yes I know this is just one example...

 

I did not look closely at your chart before I posted. I thought your entry was higher.

 

What do you think of that trade?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

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  Cory2679 said:
Currently short the EU...

 

UPDATE: When I went to bed last night, I was in positive territory on the trade and just moved my stop to break-even, and that's what I ended up taking. Had I not, I would have taken a full loss. However, if my profit target had been just a little more conservative, I could have taken profit had I not gotten to break-even. I pushed it a little too much.

5aa71093c1156_EURUSD(15Min)8_2_2011.jpg.c084b4d5e71e2c4349d88299da54c48f.jpg

5aa71093c5733_EURUSD(15Min)8_3_20112.jpg.c1605c6027a50fe5057ce9d6df501a82.jpg

Edited by Cory2679

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  thalestrader said:
What do you think of that trade?

 

Clearly this isn't what you're looking for, but I thought the trade was ok...maybe not quite as nice as the trade from Monday, but trades as nice as Monday's are a rarity...

 

In hindsight, I can always come up with reasons why I shouldawouldacoulda avoided a losing trade, but to be perfectly honest, I believe that's probably a trade I'd take again (I feel like you're probably always a little disappointed with my responses to questions such as these! ;))...

 

Price was in a longer-term downtrend, we were into the downward slope in a swing, price had recently come alive, I saw a 123 for a short at resistance, and I took it. Once it became apparent to me that it wasn't going anywhere, I cut it.

 

I guess the primary concern I see is that the 123 wasn't as crisp and clear as it could have been, relative to the price action leading up to it...however, I kind of looked at it like the way price bounced from support (my BE threshold)...it kind of puttered along after stopping at support before it shot up...

 

So I guess I'm basically just lost...so now I ask...what do you think of that trade?

5aa71093c9a33_EURJPY(15Min)8_2_2011.jpg.a2e341dd60edfa4d3a0d08421438d1c9.jpg

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  Cory2679 said:
So I guess I'm basically just lost...so now I ask...what do you think of that trade?

 

I do not know if you had noticed, but here is where I posted what I would have used as a short entry:

 

  thalestrader said:
I'll not bother with an updated chart (too many steps to attach a chart, you know) ... but a quick look at this would have me saying to try a short below 110.30 and a stop above 111.05.

 

And if you click back to that quote, you can then click back to the chart I had posted from that night. Initially, I saw a 123 with an entry level of 110.14 +/-, but then the EURJPY rallied to a new high a tick or two above 111.00, and the subsequent price action set up a 123 with a revised entry level of 110.30 +/- ... that is where I had presumed you had entered. It was only after you posted that moving your stop loss saved you from a full 1R loss that I took a close look at your chart and saw your entry.

 

Here is what I think:

 

1) You missed the real initial 123 entry into that downswing, which I posted above, and you were looking for a place to get in. But in doing so, you simply looked for a 123 of any degree, and at any place.

 

2) Also, you seems to be trading without any real awareness of S/R considerations. Do yourslef a favor, and strike a fib retracement tool from the 111.01 +/- high to the 109.29 +/- low. Tell me if you find a level where a significant fib level coincides with a significant actual price level where one might reasonably expect a test as resistance. If you find one, then that should have been you entry area. You could have watched closely for a small degree 123-like price movement to get you in, or you could have watched closely, shorted on the first hint of price being rejected at that level, with a tight stop above that level.

 

Do you see the level to which I am alluding? If so, I want to see your chart showing at least a scribble or two showing me that you understand what I just said.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

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  thalestrader said:
I do not know if you had noticed, but here is where I posted what I would have used as a short entry...You missed the real initial 123 entry into that downswing, which I posted above, and you were looking for a place to get in. But in doing so, you simply looked for a 123 of any degree, and at any place....

 

Yes I noticed, and I agree...I was later to the party than you, but I wasn't on that evening (I'm currently unable to also trade the first part of Tokyo like I'd like to), so I did the best I could with what I had the next morning. But I did think I had picked a decent point of entry with regard to S/R (see more below)...

 

  thalestrader said:
2) Also, you seems to be trading without any real awareness of S/R considerations. Do yourslef a favor, and strike a fib retracement tool from the 111.01 +/- high to the 109.29 +/- low. Tell me if you find a level where a significant fib level coincides with a significant actual price level where one might reasonably expect a test as resistance. If you find one, then that should have been you entry area...

 

Do you see the level to which I am alluding? If so, I want to see your chart showing at least a scribble or two showing me that you understand what I just said.

 

Price resumed it's downmove at right about the 50% retracement, which coincided with the red line of resistance I've drawn (and had drawn on the original chart I posted). I was keenly aware of that level and considered myself to be shorting at that level...I'd thought price had gotten close enough to count. But, alas, price then later continued upward to test the actual level before it resumed the downmove.

 

So you see, I don't feel I'm trading with no regard for S/R...maybe I'm just treating it wrong.

 

I guess I should have gone short once price actually did test the level...I guess I just didn't see a clear good entry. I've basically restricted myself to medium-to-large 123's, but your advice was good and something I've copied and need to keep in mind...because even on the short I took, I could have done much better had I shorted higher up, closer to the level of resistance, rather than so much lower off the larger "123" I took:

 

  thalestrader said:
...You could have watched closely for a small degree 123-like price movement to get you in, or you could have watched closely, shorted on the first hint of price being rejected at that level, with a tight stop above that level.

5aa71093ce40b_EURJPY(15Min)8_3_2011.jpg.952097a8997806f97348981e41f4011e.jpg

Edited by Cory2679

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  Cory2679 said:
...So you see, I don't feel I'm trading with no regard for S/R...maybe I'm just treating it wrong.

 

I guess I should have gone short once price actually did test the level...I guess I just didn't see a clear good entry. I've basically restricted myself to medium-to-large 123's, but your advice was good and something I've copied and need to keep in mind...because even on the short I took, I could have done much better had I shorted higher up, closer to the level of resistance, rather than so much lower off the larger "123" I took:

 

I see the second push that actually tagged resistance as the better spot to start looking for a 123 type entry, but I do have the benefit of looking at it in hindsight, and as you know, these things are always clear in hindsight.

 

Yes, I think that if you locate a break up or break down accompanied by a clear 123, and you want in, then rather than chase the trade, let the trade come back to you, and add a pullback to the breakout point to your repertoire. Otherwise, I fear that you will continue to get chopped to death without anything other than your frustration to show for it.

 

Also, I know I recommended in the past that you perhaps put day trading on hold, and rather than being glued to a 15 minute chart, you give straight S/R trading a try, using 60, 240, and daily charts, or perhaps a range bar chart (I use 13R and 34R for the 6E). Look for areas of S/R where significant fib levels coincide.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

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  thalestrader said:
Also, I know I recommended in the past that you perhaps put day trading on hold, and rather than being glued to a 15 minute chart, you give straight S/R trading a try, using 60, 240, and daily charts, or perhaps a range bar chart (I use 13R and 34R for the 6E). Look for areas of S/R where significant fib levels coincide.

 

I've never really used fib retracements much, but I will begin doing what you said here. I have used fib extensions in a similiar way for profit targets, but not retracements.

 

As far as daytrading...I would think I'd rather make a real effort to incorporate these ideas more into my daytrading, but not give up daytrading all-together. My feeling has been that I can get more experience faster by daytrading...I guess I just need to make sure that it's quality experience, and not just quantity...which I'm not sure that I've necessarily managed to do well. It seems to me like it could take weeks or even months of swing-trading to equal a relatively short period of daytrading, experience-wise.

 

An example of incorporating these ideas more would be my trade from Monday...you'll see on my trade from Monday that I even posted a 4-hour chart to show the resistance where I was shorting. That was actually a trade much like we were talking about earlier...shorting the retracement to the breakdown point after a (in this case, a much longer-term) 123 short.

ej4h.gif.2074ec21433b37a7978476427f59d112.gif

5aa7109503b5a_EURJPY20(1520Min)20208_1_2011.jpg.9090317fea9334e6823a32ec7124970a.jpg

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  Cory2679 said:
My feeling has been that I can get more experience faster by daytrading...I guess I just need to make sure that it's quality experience, and not just quantity...which I'm not sure that I've necessarily managed to do well.

 

two points of note Cory - print out this quote of yours - quality not quantity is important (unless you have a built in edge like a market maker/HFT front runner.)

 

You can have all the patience int he world and no one is forcing you to trade - just go for the quality fruit. You cant loose money not being in the market, but you are more likely to in a crappy marginal trade

 

2 - Fib retracements can definitely help here. They can give you that extra patience.....

 

Interestingly I have found I dont use fibs very often for taking profits - as I like to try and let things run (though I am aware of them, I find them distracting and tempting to take profits)

BUT they do offer a guide to various entry levels TO WATCH, and when certain things happen there (or with enough experience you might get good at pre-empting them) they can help with areas to watch for ENTRIES.

Now when it comes to Fibs - much like trend lines they are a very personal thing, so think about what you are trying to acheive out of this IN CONJUNCTION with what you know.

:2c:

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  Cory2679 said:
...An example of incorporating these ideas more would be my trade from Monday...you'll see on my trade from Monday that I even posted a 4-hour chart to show the resistance where I was shorting. That was actually a trade much like we were talking about earlier...shorting the retracement to the breakdown point after a (in this case, a much longer-term) 123 short.

 

That is exactly what you should be looking to do - identify S/R on the 240 minute or higher, and then trade S to R and R to S. Give up those fib targets. You are using them indiscriminately. Even when I mention fib retracements, I always say to find significant fib levels that correspond to significant S/R levels. Your entry on Monday should have been for a 208 tick profit. S/R always trumps fibs. In fact, I am sure I have said thata here before.

 

  thalestrader said:
... and of course, actual S/R always trumps fib levels for me.

 

As far as you desire for experience, I also said ...

 

 

  thalestrader said:
1) You do not need to make money everyday

 

2) You do not need to trade everyday

 

3) a. if you are serious, your goal is to make trades in accordance with your defined entry and trade management guidelines, not to make trades for the sake of making trades.

 

b. if you are serious, then your goal is also to avoid trades that do not fit your defined entry guidelines.

 

c. if your are serious, and you seek to trade only when your defined opportunities present themselves, then the profits will take care of themselves...

 

Listen to SIUYA and listen to yourself: Quality is what matters. You gain quality experience by not trading when there you see no defined set ups at significant price levels. Do not trade for the sake of gaining experience. Trade or not trade based on where price is and what it is doing there.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

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Currently short the GBP/USD...somewhat regretting the trade as soon as it filled...the best trade was probably on the EUR/USD, which I missed, and I'm worried that I'm a little late to the party and that I'm shorting into too much of an area of support...

 

NinjaTrader is messed up right now...has a significant gap in recent historical data, which messes the chart up bad...so I'll be posting all MT4 charts until that's fixed...I like Ninja sooo much better...

 

UPDATE: Stop moved down...

 

FINAL UPDATE: I actually decided just to pull this trade for a 0.5R loss since it wasn't really a trade I wanted to be in to begin with. I should have probably just pulled it right away once I realized I'd made a crappy trade. I'm really not sure why I held on to it as long as I did. Probably just hope. :doh: I can't believe I've started the week this way. I never learn anything.

gu4h.gif.0cf7e0999f034ecf3d97d06d25210c4e.gif

gu15m.gif.ec9a5c535077bf751a8e79187f59bf3e.gif

gu15m2.gif.c2148694453a01bcd9efd3d7300c2c05.gif

Edited by Cory2679

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  Cory2679 said:
Currently short the GBP/USD...somewhat regretting the trade as soon as it filled...the best trade was probably on the EUR/USD, which I missed, and I'm worried that I'm a little late to the party and that I'm shorting into too much of an area of support...

 

...I actually decided just to pull this trade for a 0.5R loss since it wasn't really a trade I wanted to be in to begin with. I should have probably just pulled it right away once I realized I'd made a crappy trade. I'm really not sure why I held on to it as long as I did. Probably just hope. :doh: I can't believe I've started the week this way. I never learn anything...

 

Well the trade is doing much better than I thought. Maybe I should have just stuck with the initial logic that got me into the trade in the first place, rather than my reaction once I had gotten in it and become fearful.

 

It's turning out to have been a decent entry, but poorly managed trade. Gosh, that's so unlike me. ;)

 

I went back live today with a $1,250 account, with a $25 R (2%)...up from trying $5 last week and up from weeks of SIM before that. Maybe that had something to do with it. I don't know. Either way, I know it's no excuse. I want to trade live because I think it's the best thing for my training...and $5 was practically like SIM psychologically for me I think, plus it's more difficult to precisely size positions with 1,000 unit lots with such a small R value.

 

Ok, I'm not going to post about this trade anymore...I'm putting it behind me and moving on.

gu15m4.gif.bf06e0ad72f60bdd15bfa3368872bb64.gif

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Got burned trying to jump back into the GBP/USD much further down from my first entry...basically chasing the trade...entering after price had already made a big move, and was closing in on support. Took a 1R loss...I deserved it. I'm so disappointed in myself. I think it'd probably be a good idea not to allow myself to take any more trades today.

 

I think missing out on the great downmove that I was in and pulled for a 0.5R loss just messed me up emotionally. Same old story. I never learn anything.

gu15m6.gif.fdfeeb91c5a143a83738bd7cacd69214.gif

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Looking at a potential short in this area on the EUR/USD. Price declined to an anticipated level of support, climbed to an anticipated level of resitance, now, with the overall trend downward, I'm betting on a decline from resistance back down and through support to the next level of anticipated support.

eu4h.gif.c16643a75b4f46f2b6a3d58bcada15f3.gif

eu15m.gif.9fde8e912d5602d8b77380d3e0255360.gif

Edited by Cory2679

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  Cory2679 said:
Looking at a potential short in this area on the EUR/USD. Price declined to an anticipated level of support, climbed to an anticipated level of resitance, now, with the overall trend downward, I'm betting on a decline from resistance back down and through support to the next level of anticipated support.

 

Took practically a full loss. I adjusted the stop before the fill to reduce my risk zone a little bit, then moved my stop down slightly after it almost took me out.

 

Once price became so choppy, I probably should have pulled my order...especially considering the time of day and that I was getting short after an impulsive upmove off of support...

 

I got clobbered today. I really got out of control. :( It's pathetic. I don't know what's wrong with me. I should have listened to myself:

 

  Cory2679 said:
...I think it'd probably be a good idea not to allow myself to take any more trades today...

 

I ended up down a grand total of -2.322R (-$58.06) today. No excuse.

 

I traded poorly (even for me!) and had a bad day...it happens. I simply need to take a deep breath and move on and shake this off emotionally, while not forgetting the lessons and mistakes I've mentioned.

eu15m2.gif.e4299e8e978eb6a010879e1430c8e681.gif

Edited by Cory2679

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Potential short the EUR/USD. Price has rallied back to the breakdown point and is showing signs of being rejected at that level. I'm betting on a decline back to support, where I'll take half off, then a break and decline to the next level of support, where I'll take the other half off.

eu4h.gif.f4cc96e35171334f44550a46eaaf7b80.gif

eu15m.gif.9cb2d84cd0bc8e8088bc24b584b0f70f.gif

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  Cory2679 said:
Potential short the EUR/USD. Price has rallied back to the breakdown point and is showing signs of being rejected at that level. I'm betting on a decline back to support, where I'll take half off, then a break and decline to the next level of support, where I'll take the other half off.

 

Well, shoot.........

eu15m2.gif.72379ffb1cbcf1f80850d71a6b9ca8a9.gif

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Relfecting on the week so far:

 

Monday:

 

Essentially, I got into a decent GBP/USD short trade, got stupid/emotional/fearful and pulled out, only to see it decline into profitable territory. I stated that I wasn't going to post anymore about the trade and put it behind me, then proceeded to make another post about the trade...a clear sign that I was a little messed up emotionally.

 

As an emotional reaction to this miss, I jumped in after the market had already substantially declined and was closing in on support, and took the 1R loss I deserved. After this emotional trade, I stated that I wouldn't be taking anymore trades that day due to my state of mind.

 

I then went against my resolve not to take anymore trades and took another short, only to again take almost a full 1R loss, which I deserved. The trade looked ok initially, but then price became choppy and lacked impulse...and it was late in the day. The thing to do would have been to pull it, but instead, due to my emotional trainwreck state-of-mind, I kept the order in, hoping that the trade would prove profitable and make back everything I'd lost. Price then became choppy and overlappy, and took me out.

 

Tuesday (Today):

 

I got into what was probably an ok EUR/USD short trade...a short on the GBP/USD proved to have been the better trade to take... I eventually got a decent decline...about 1R...but I held on through the FOMC announcement, hoping it would be the boost I needed to get to big profits and make up for all of Monday's loss. Instead of hoping, I ought to have been thinking about preservation of capital and either moved my stop or pulled the trade...there was plenty of opportunity...I was even in profitable territory leading up to the announcement.

 

 

So, basically, this week I've been an emotional wreck. I think this is because of 2 things...first, I went back live with my bigger size. Second, I was starting something "new," which psyched me out and messed me up.

 

I think I basically haven't gotten the hang of this "new" way I'm trying to trade yet...starting with the 4H chart and using the 15M for entries only, basically. Today's trade probably wasn't the best...yes, price had retraced to the breakdown point and showed signs of rejection, but the way it retraced the breakdown point was choppy and wide. The GBP/USD, on the other hand, which would have been the better trade, looks much nicer. We had just had a nice double top/test and rejection of resistance, and price proceeded to decline to an anticipated level of support. It doesn't get any clearer/easier than that. I think I just need some more practice with this.

gu4h.gif.237b61e56c9a6532aac5a33e2544733f.gif

Edited by Cory2679

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Cory,

 

Not for nothing, but you are beating yourself to death trading the two pairs that have been locked in a chop box most of the year. Meanwhile, the Swissy, the Aussie, and the Yen have been trending and volatile and everything you need to make it easy on yourself. I know I have recommended narrowing your focus in the past. But perhaps you need both a narrow focus viewed through "funnel vision." In other words, I think it is a good idea to focus on one or two or maybe three of the majors. But why not keep an eye on their longer term charts, and focus on those showing trend-like, range expanding price action?

 

Both the 6E and the 6B will break out of those trading ranges eventually, and perhaps soon, but until they do, tred (and trade) them carefully.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

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I think I'm going to take a little hiatus from TL...for maybe a week or so.

 

I have to pull myself together. With the mess I've been posting this week, I'm just wasting people's time. I'm doing things that I know I shouldn't be doing. Once I consider myself to have pulled myself together, I'll resume posting.

 

Thales, I want to express my immense appreciation for all the recent advice and posts, and tell you it's really nice to have you back. I had mentioned to a good friend some of the advice you'd been giving me lately and that you were back on TL, and she asked me if I had let you know how much I appreciate it...and I guess I really hadn't.

 

Thank you to everyone else, too, who has contributed. There are a lot of generous people around TL.

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  Cory2679 said:
I think I'm going to take a little hiatus from TL...for maybe a week or so.

 

I have to pull myself together...

 

Hi Cory,

 

I'm hoping that you are taking a week away from posting but not a week from checking in here.

Let's see if we can't pull you together a bit over the coming week. Perhaps you should demo trade these next few days if you are trading at all.

 

Here is the current look of the EURUSD. You know the drill - red rectangles are resistance, blue rectangles are support. We want to watch for short sales at red, long opportunities at blues. If a red breaks, we turn it blue, so we then look to play long on a retest of the once red now blue area. You're a bright kid, and you know to reverse the scenario should price fall to and break through a blue.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=25717&stc=1&d=1313376918

 

When price is out between these areas, such as it is now, we call that no man's land. You will recall that no man's land is a dangerous place, and that price spends most of its time out there. Since it is dangerous, we will leave it alone until it comes to us.

 

Now, for the record, if you were to look at an hourly chart, you'd see that the EURUSD is right at a level where we might expect it to encounter some resistance. It would be up to you whether you were going to play these areas right now.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=25718&stc=1&d=1313376918

 

My suggestion is that for the time being, you focus on those S/R areas that are plainly visible on a daily chart.

 

At some point, I suspect (and expect) price to break hard one way or the other through this ever tightening stranglehold it has put on itself. When that happens, we will zoom out to an even bigger picture and see if we cannot figure out a game plan to ride what may become a sizable trend, while protecting ourselves from what may turn out to be an explosive thrust that quickly reverses itself.

 

Last, but not least, I am going to suggest that you do not glue your face to your charts this week. If your broker or platofrm has alerts enabled, create alerts to send you a text or email or ring a chime when price gets within 10-20 ticks of these areas. Then you can watch your charts.

 

Let's see if we can get you back on track.

 

I'll check in with you sometime tomorrow - morning, noon, night - who knows? But at some point, I'll be back to review the charts with you.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

5aa71097de89b_REDWaitandBlue.thumb.jpg.20af58577d6418ab8b683b2f3dd9d50b.jpg

5aa71097e44a1_REDWaitandBlueHourly.thumb.jpg.0e161215136f83409a2ea2ded686fe8c.jpg

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In fact, Cory, let us add, perhaps temporarily, another color to the mix - red resistance, blue support, and purple for an area where the twain may meet, such as where price is now. In the above post I noted that visible on the hourly chart, but not the daily, is an area of resistance around 1.4310. Well, just below that resistance is an area of potential support near 1.4285. So, when red meets blue, we get purple. So I have added a small purple rectangle to the chart, and tomorrow, when we review, we will see what happened in and around that area.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=25719&stc=1&d=1313378162

 

Here is how the chart looks right now - as you can see, a short opportunity did arise at that resistance level. As I said above, it is up to you if you want to play these lesser areas right now. But until we set you aright again, playing the more obvious areas seems to be in order, right?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

5aa71097ea335_RedWaitandBluewithabitofpurple.thumb.jpg.0f58d78819ddb0445ec61720a31ecd49.jpg

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And here we can see that price is really whipping around back and forth through that purple zone, which is is not to be unexpected given the narrow band between minor S levels and R levels.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=25723&stc=1&d=1313406106

 

I will check in later today. Right now, I am waiting for price to travel to the 1.4400 level or back down to the 1.4100 level (all +/- of course) before expecting anything that would entice my participation to develop.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

5aa710981c2c2_RedWaitandBlue08152011AM.thumb.jpg.ea69b0f4a2606e6f1717e0a140c553f2.jpg

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Hey Thales,

 

Yes, I'm still checking in...and thanks so much for the charts and commentary.

 

I have a question...you'll often suggest to me focusing on longer timeframes, sticking to the sidelines when price is in no man's land or chop, not always being glued to the chart, not needing a trade every day, etc...my question is, what would you suggest I do while I'm waiting? I want to fill every moment of my trading day with something productive.

 

Thanks,

 

Cory

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    • Thx for reminding us... I don't bang that drum often enough anymore Another part for consideration is who that money initially went to...
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • How long does it take to receive HFM's withdrawal via Skrill? less than 24H?
    • My wife Robin just wanted some groceries.   Simple enough.   She parked the car for fifteen minutes, and returned to find a huge scratch on the side.   Someone keyed her car.   To be clear, this isn’t just any car.   It’s a Cybertruck—Elon Musk's stainless-steel spaceship on wheels. She bought it back in 2021, before Musk became everyone's favorite villain or savior.   Someone saw it parked in a grocery lot and felt compelled to carve their hatred directly into the metal.   That's what happens when you stand out.   Nobody keys a beige minivan.   When you're polarizing, you're impossible to ignore. But the irony is: the more attention something has, the harder it is to find the truth about it.   What’s Elon Musk really thinking? What are his plans? What will happen with DOGE? Is he deserving of all of this adoration and hate? Hard to say.   Ideas work the same way.   Take tariffs, for example.   Tariffs have become the Cybertrucks of economic policy. People either love them or hate them. Even if they don’t understand what they are and how they work. (Most don’t.)   That’s why, in my latest podcast (link below), I wanted to explore the “in-between” truth about tariffs.   And like Cybertrucks, I guess my thoughts on tariffs are polarizing.   Greg Gutfield mentioned me on Fox News. Harvard professors hate me now. (I wonder if they also key Cybertrucks?)   But before I show you what I think about tariffs… I have to mention something.   We’re Headed to Austin, Texas This weekend, my team and I are headed to Austin. By now, you should probably know why.   Yes, SXSW is happening. But my team and I are doing something I think is even better.   We’re putting on a FREE event on “Tech’s Turning Point.”   AI, quantum, biotech, crypto, and more—it’s all on the table.   Just now, we posted a special webpage with the agenda.   Click here to check it out and add it to your calendar.   The Truth About Tariffs People love to panic about tariffs causing inflation.   They wave around the ghost of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff from the Great Depression like it’s Exhibit A proving tariffs equal economic collapse.   But let me pop this myth:   Tariffs don’t cause inflation. And no, I'm not crazy (despite what angry professors from Harvard or Stanford might tweet at me).   Here's the deal.   Inflation isn’t when just a couple of things become pricier. It’s when your entire shopping basket—eggs, shirts, Netflix subscriptions, bananas, everything—starts costing more because your money’s worth less.   Inflation means your dollars aren’t stretching as far as they used to.   Take the 1800s.   For nearly a century, 97% of America’s revenue came from tariffs. Income tax? Didn’t exist. And guess what inflation was? Basically zero. Maybe 1% a year.   The economy was booming, and tariffs funded nearly everything. So, why do people suddenly think tariffs cause inflation today?   Tariffs are taxes on imports, yes, but prices are set by supply and demand—not tariffs.   Let me give you a simple example.   Imagine fancy potato chips from Canada cost $10, and a 20% tariff pushes that to $12. Everyone panics—prices rose! Inflation!   Nope.   If I only have $100 to spend and the price of my favorite chips goes up, I either stop buying chips or I buy, say, fewer newspapers.   If everyone stops buying newspapers because they’re overspending on chips, newspapers lower their prices or go out of business.   Overall spending stays the same, and inflation doesn’t budge.   Three quick scenarios:   We buy pricier chips, but fewer other things: Inflation unchanged. Manufacturers shift to the U.S. to avoid tariffs: Inflation unchanged (and more jobs here). We stop buying fancy chips: Prices drop again. Inflation? Still unchanged. The only thing that actually causes inflation is printing money.   Between 2020 and 2022 alone, 40% of all money ever created in history appeared overnight.   That’s why inflation shot up afterward—not because of tariffs.   Back to tariffs today.   Still No Inflation Unlike the infamous Smoot-Hawley blanket tariff (imagine Oprah handing out tariffs: "You get a tariff, and you get a tariff!"), today's tariffs are strategic.   Trump slapped tariffs on chips from Taiwan because we shouldn’t rely on a single foreign supplier for vital tech components—especially if that supplier might get invaded.   Now Taiwan Semiconductor is investing $100 billion in American manufacturing.   Strategic win, no inflation.   Then there’s Canada and Mexico—our friendly neighbors with weirdly huge tariffs on things like milk and butter (299% tariff on butter—really, Canada?).   Trump’s not blanketing everything with tariffs; he’s pressuring trade partners to lower theirs.   If they do, everybody wins. If they don’t, well, then we have a strategic trade chess game—but still no inflation.   In short, tariffs are about strategy, security, and fairness—not inflation.   Yes, blanket tariffs from the Great Depression era were dumb. Obviously. Today's targeted tariffs? Smart.   Listen to the whole podcast to hear why I think this.   And by the way, if you see a Cybertruck, don’t key it. Robin doesn’t care about your politics; she just likes her weird truck.   Maybe read a good book, relax, and leave cars alone.   (And yes, nobody keys Volkswagens, even though they were basically created by Hitler. Strange world we live in.) Source: https://altucherconfidential.com/posts/the-truth-about-tariffs-busting-the-inflation-myth    Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/       
    • No, not if you are comparing apples to apples. What we call “poor” is obviously a pretty high bar but if you’re talking about like a total homeless shambling skexie in like San Fran then, no. The U.S.A. in not particularly kind to you. It is not an abuse so much as it is a sad relatively minor consequence of our optimism and industriousness.   What you consider rich changes with circumstances obviously. If you are genuinely poor in the U.S.A., you experience a quirky hodgepodge of unhelpful and/or abstract extreme lavishnesses while also being alienated from your social support network. It’s about the same as being a refugee. For a fraction of the ‘kindness’ available to you in non bio-available form, you could have simply stayed closer to your people and been MUCH better off.   It’s just a quirk of how we run the place and our values; we are more worried about interfering with people’s liberty and natural inclination to do for themselves than we are about no bums left behind. It is a slightly hurtful position and we know it; we are just scared to death of socialism cancer and we’re willing to put our money where our mouth is.   So, if you’re a bum; you got 5G, the ER will spend like $1,000,000 on you over a hangnail but then kick you out as soon as you’re “stabilized”, the logistics are surpremely efficient, you have total unchecked freedom of speech, real-estate, motels, and jobs are all natural healthy markets in perfect competition, you got compulsory three ‘R’’s, your military owns the sky, sea, space, night, information-space, and has the best hairdos, you can fill out paper and get all the stuff up to and including a Ph.D. Pretty much everything a very generous, eager, flawless go-getter with five minutes to spare would think you might need.   It’s worse. Our whole society is competitive and we do NOT value or make any kumbaya exception. The last kumbaya types we had werr the Shakers and they literally went extinct. Pueblo peoples are still around but they kind of don’t count since they were here before us. So basically, if you’re poor in the U.S.A., you are automatically a loser and a deadbeat too. You will be treated as such by anybody not specifically either paid to deal with you or shysters selling bejesus, Amway, and drugs. Plus, it ain’t safe out there. Not everybody uses muhfreedoms to lift their truck, people be thugging and bums are very vulnerable here. The history of a large mobile workforce means nobody has a village to go home to. Source: https://askdaddy.quora.com/Are-the-poor-people-in-the-United-States-the-richest-poor-people-in-the-world-6   Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/ 
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