Rollover Day

[diablo272 10]

Rollover day: do you take the day off, or do you trade? Personally I find my edge diminishes on rollover day due to the lack of volume, so I sit out. Also as happened today, and as has happened before, I sometimes have technical difficulties on rollover day with my platform, so that is also incentive to take the day off.

[brownsfan019 17]

I don't use volume whatsoever in my work so rollover is just a matter of a few clicks on the charts/doms to be on the new contract.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Rollover day: do you take the day off, or do you trade? Personally I find my edge diminishes on rollover day due to the lack of volume, so I sit out.

 

Depends on what you mean by "volume" and how your edge depends on it. Volume is just trading activity. Without it, there would be no price movement. If your edge depends on pace, that might influence your edge. Or if you are using volume patterns as indicators, that might influence your edge. But since both contracts are tied to the same source, they can be traded more or less the same way in terms of PA.

[diablo272 10]

Depends on what you mean by "volume" and how your edge depends on it. Volume is just trading activity. Without it, there would be no price movement. If your edge depends on pace, that might influence your edge. Or if you are using volume patterns as indicators, that might influence your edge. But since both contracts are tied to the same source, they can be traded more or less the same way in terms of PA.

 

My observation is that on low volume days, markets (at least the markets that I watch) are more likely to stay within a range and "chop" than they might be on a day which would be closer to average volume, or higher than average volume. I currently do not have a strategy that would be profitable on days like that. Of course, sometimes my current strategy can be profitable on days like that, but more often it will either result in breakeven, a small gain, or a small loss. So I have made the decision that, because I have reason to believe that rollover day will be a low volume day, I am better off just sitting out. Also as I said, Ninja is known to have numerous problem on rollover day, so that is another reason to sit out. Basically, the risk is not worth the reward.

 

And I do agree with you that volume is only volume, and nothing more. However, I do think that there is a general correlation between volume and price action. In my experience, this correlation is not enough to base a consistently profitable system around, but there is still a correlation that I can see: i.e. low volume days are often consolidation days, high volume days are often days when a trend system (depending on the parameters of the system, of course) would have an edge. And I realize that the consolidation days and trend days can have varying definitions depending on the trader, but my point is that volume does seem to be related to price action in some way, even if I can't create a profitable system based on volume.

 

Generally though, I do agree with your post above.

[Spydertrader 10]

Do I trade Rollover days? Sure do. No reason not to. Absolute levels of Volume may differ from one contract to the next, but the Volume Sequences exist irrespective of the number of market participants. As such, rollover day represents a day no different than any other.

 

- Spydertrader

[diablo272 10]

Do I trade Rollover days? Sure do. No reason not to. Absolute levels of Volume may differ from one contract to the next, but the Volume Sequences exist irrespective of the number of market participants. As such, rollover day represents a day no different than any other.

 

- Spydertrader

 

This post has caused me to think now...My observation is that on lower volume days, price tends to consolidate on my main timeframe. However, when I think about it the way you phrased it above, that shouldn't be the case....I'll have to spend some time thinking about that.