Won't Get Fooled Again

[HAL9000 10]

During this weekend,

 

I have deleted the CCI again, the Linear Regression too.

 

Somehow this made it more complex again.

 

Instead I have added some old EMA's,

searching for an explanation for the ADXVMA's, beside of step 1.

 

I looked at various currencies today,

with my standard ranges,

but was focused on this one.

 

LOL, nearly picture perfect today, but not every day,

but I think, that now I am really done with checking indicators.

This set will be it, with the same fixed parameters,

that I am already using for a while now,

only the ranges will change.

 

So here is the picture:

 

 

 

Frozen,

 

Hal

Edited August 31, 2009 by HAL9000
;-) As always, BTW. metal -> mental within previous post.

[HAL9000 10]

Necessary black line test happened!

 

Why?

 

 

:rofl:

 

And now it depends,

well and also the break will come.

 

Bedtime, hindsight!

 

 

Hal

 

P.S.: Machines trading today?! :sleep:

Edited August 31, 2009 by HAL9000
;-) What should I say?

[thalestrader 14]

Necessary black line test happened!

 

Why?

 

 

 

 

Hi Hal,

 

I'm not sure what your black line is, but I have a feeling (a strong feeling) that its location vis a vis that test was pure coincidence.

 

Here is my view of that test ... I think you'll agree it probably had nothing to do with your black line.

 

I think you might want to draw S/R on you charts using a 15 or even 60 minute chart, and then drop to the range chart. That way you will see potentially meaningful levels without having to be confused or befuddled.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[jonbig04 10]

Good point Thales. A while back I picked a few levels my closing by eyes and putting my finger on the screen. Wherever it landed I drew a line. It's amazing how price tested it from each side etc. It makes sense though really. Every price point is being watched by someone. Price rising above any level is bullish, but how bullish? When my arbitrary lines were broken it wasn't very meaningful because there weren't very many people watching or protecting that level. Therefor price breaking the arbitrary level doesn't give us near as much information as if price broke a major level that many people were watching (major s/r).

[thalestrader 14]

Good point Thales. A while back I picked a few levels my closing by eyes and putting my finger on the screen. Wherever it landed I drew a line. It's amazing how price tested it from each side etc. It makes sense though really. Every price point is being watched by someone. Price rising above any level is bullish, but how bullish? When my arbitrary lines were broken it wasn't very meaningful because there weren't very many people watching or protecting that level. Therefor price breaking the arbitrary level doesn't give us near as much information as if price broke a major level that many people were watching (major s/r).

 

And as Db has often said, price reaching one of those meaningful levels is not itself an entry signal. What is important is what do traders do once price reaches that level. Of course, what traders do at that level matters because the level itself is not arbitrary, but rather represents a prior area where bulls and bears pushed and shoved against one another and someone won, someone lost, and everyone knows it.

 

And by the way Hal, I did not mean that you should change whatever it is that you have found to work for you. My suggestion was an "in addition to" and not an "instead of" suggestion. Use S/R to help you implement your method.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[HAL9000 10]

Thales,

 

I will answer tomorrow,

but yes, I have already thought about it,

 

but isn't 0.911 visible short term too on my chart.

 

Well, the black line, well the darkest EMA (34 BTW.),

its just; all tell the same story (confidence?!):

 

- 34 EMA test, and up again.

- Support test, and up again.

- HL, and up again.

- Relative extreme on VC, and up again.

- Black line test (balance point (more or less), if horizontal), and up again.

 

Finally its really about money (or trade) management,

not about (parameters of) indicators.

 

Well, I often violated my rules, but progress

is made step by step. I should know.

 

Regards,

 

Hal

 

 

P.S.: Just look at the green line. Step by step. 1,2,3,4 ... 5 ouch!

 

:rofl: Bedtime!

[HAL9000 10]

Thales,

 

I have deleted these indicators,

because they added complexity.

 

I said, I will play with ranges,

so here is a 19 r (also one I often use) of yesterday and today,

Nothing else is changed.

 

 

 

Regards,

 

Hal

[HAL9000 10]

The bigger pictures:

 

CAD/USD and GBP/USD until today with dark lines at the 1 hour session break.

 

I am just watching, but ...

 

 

 

 

Patience,

 

Hal

[HAL9000 10]

Today I sim-traded the CAD/USD once more,

 

I traded up to 3 contracts,

and never was much down below 0.

-200 $ max during the day, if I remember right.

 

I did some experiments (Mr. Hyde mode),

and these often fail (and some failed today too).

Anyway, today gave me some more confidence.

 

The screenshots show, what I've looked at today.

 

I think I have to work on that too,

but it wasn't that bad.

 

 

[thalestrader 14]

Today I sim-traded the CAD/USD once more,

 

I traded up to 3 contracts,

and never was much down below 0.

-200 $ max during the day, if I remember right.

 

Hi Hal,

 

When you say you traded USD/CAD, were you trading the 6C futures contract or retail spot FX?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[HAL9000 10]

Hi Thales,

 

to make it short, the 6C,

 

I just look at futures.

 

Its just that my order platform and my broker uses AUD, JPY, GBP, CAD and EUR as symbols, but behind them are the futures 6C, etc...

 

You can see this, if you look at the picture of my order platform,

while below the tick chart, the currencies are named,

on top of the tool, it says: Future: CAD_6C_canadian...

 

BTW.: Entries and targets are using limited orders,

stops are market, and within simulation mode,

often some extra ticks are added for market orders.

(I often see, that my stopped price wasn't hit in real,

but for training reasons, this is good and OK.)

 

Regards,

 

Hal

Edited September 4, 2009 by HAL9000

[HAL9000 10]

One more,

 

if you look at the tape reader,

it shows the following things.

 

5 second price (vwap), number of contracts, number of trades,

or a 0 if nothing happened within the last 5 s.

 

For fun, you might compare it with the market depth (DOM).

(They are in sync on the picture.)

 

They often pull their orders out,

that's why I have this tape open.

 

Regards,

 

Hal

 

P.S.: Maybe its like other things I use, just a learning tool,

and finally not necessary at all.

[thalestrader 14]

BTW.: Entries and targets are using limited orders,

stops are market, and within simulation mode,

often some extra ticks are added for market orders.

(I often see, that my stopped price wasn't hit in real,

but for training reasons, this is good and OK.)

 

Regards,

 

Hal

 

 

Hi Hal,

 

Yes, I see now from your screenshot it was the futures. I was just curious. While my daughter had been trading spot, I prefer futures to retail FX.

 

When you say "stops are market orders" do you mean that you yourself exit using a market order if your stop level is reached? You do not have your stop loss "in the market"?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

EDIT: PS Do you use spot price data at all?

Edited September 5, 2009 by thalestrader

[Gabe2004 10]

Hi Hal,

 

................

 

I prefer futures to retail FX.

 

.................

 

Thales

 

EDIT: PS Do you use spot price data at all?

 

 

Hello Thales

 

Could you explain why you prefer the futures to the retail instruments?

 

Thanks

 

Gabe

[HAL9000 10]

!) When you say "stops are market orders" do you mean that you yourself exit using a market order if your stop level is reached? You do not have your stop loss "in the market"?

 

2) Do you use spot price data at all?

 

Hi Thales,

 

maybe my only problem is, that I see and make things too complex.

 

But to answer your questions:

 

1) The stops are buy or sells stops, this is one reason, why they will be executed as market orders.

 

To make it complex: Whenever I try to enter a trade, its a kind of bracket.

This means,

 

- I am willing to enter at (limit),

- I am willing to exit at (limit),

- I have to accept the loss at (buy/sell stop market) ... (BTW. There are much more complex solutions available here (and above), its just depending ...).

 

When I transmit an order, this bracket is the order (OCO, I think!),

but two other things, the target currently is set far out, and I am able to say, I take a smaller one (even if 2 ticks on limit), and the same is true for stops (while not hit), I can adjust the trigger, to my fortune or my bad, we all now the rules.

 

The important thing is for me, that the stop order is placed on my broker or exchange and not on my local PC. This is not fool proof, because I saw ECBOT going down more than once before they have joined CME. So brackets are a security thing for me.

 

 

2) FX prices, I have tried to watch them in parallel,

but while it might help arbitrage traders, or traders that micro scalp, it hurts me.

So I just look at, what I trade, and I just trade a contract of something.

 

To make it easy again, I don't watch FX prices when I trade futures.

 

 

To Gabe: I also have an opinion about FX vs. futures,

but I think, I will go in line with Thales on this,

so I will wait for him, as you have asked him.

 

 

Regards,

 

Hal

Edited September 7, 2009 by HAL9000

[thalestrader 14]

FX prices, I have tried to watch them in parallel,

but while it might help arbitrage traders, or traders that micro scalp, it hurts me.

So I just look at, what I trade, and I just trade a contract of something.

 

Hi Hal

 

I only asked because I keep an S/R chart based on spot prices, one of the GBPUSD and one fo the EURUSD, as I typically trade the 6B or 6E futures. I have a friend who trades both spot and futures, and he uses spot prices for S/R as well. Also, I like to see where the futures are trading to the spot (pemium/discount, and spread between them). I do not (usually) day trade other currencies, though I will take longer term swings on the 6A, 6C, and 6J.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Edited September 7, 2009 by thalestrader

[thalestrader 14]

Hello Thales

 

Could you explain why you prefer the futures to the retail instruments?

 

Thanks

 

Gabe

 

Hi Gabe,

 

I generally prefer exchange traded to off-exchange traded products. I do not believe any of the brokers who offer spot fx actually have a true STP model, I do not like paying the spread. I do not like that the size of the spread is subject to change at the whim of the bucket shop.

 

Also, I just do not like keeping much capital at a bucket shop. I've mentioned my good friend who trades spot fx and futures. He and I both had accounts at RefcoFX years ago. I also had my commodities trading account at Refco. I decided to move all of my trading capital to IB, and by sheer good luck, I pulled my capital and cashed my check days before Refco went bust. My friend is still waiting for his Refco-deposited capital (he isn't really expecting ever to see it again). In fact, he would have been out of trading but I grubstaked him so he could get back on is feet. I was able to do so only because of the fortuitousness of the timing of my decision to change brokers.

 

My daughter's success not withstanding, I find retail foreign exchange still a little bit too "wild west" and frontier-like for my tastes. The past weeks and months offer a couple of good examples. My friend left FXCM because FXCM has made certain order types, in particular, stop losses and limit orders linked to entry orders, unavailable to US-based traders. I withdrew most of the capital from my daughter's FXCM account, and we were going to follow my friend over to Oanda and open an account for she and I to team trade during the school year. Then, last week, Oanda apparently had a platform issue where certain pairs were quoted at prices 50% or more off from actual prices. This caused many traders to suffer margin calls and debit balances. I presume that Oanda has corrected the errors to these folks's accounts, but why should I even open myself up to such frustration and financial danger?

 

Instead of opening an Oanda trading account, I am in the process of funding a small 5K account at one of my brokers, Infinity Futures, that we will trade over the coming months.

 

Others, of course, will no doubt disagree with my reasons, and that is fine. My friend continues to trade spot and futures, though I believe he has already left Oanda and is looking elsewhere.

 

And I am not trying to disuade anyone from trading spot fx. In fact, next summer my daughter may very well want to go back to spot fx because she really enjoys trading the Yen pairs, especially the EURJPY. The EURJPY-based futures have little liquidity and seem basically to be untradable at this time.

 

The point is, trade what you are comfortable with so long as you can do so profitably. I feel comfortable trading stocks and futures. If you are comfortable and profitable trading retail forex, then I would encourage you to continue, or at least I would not discourage you from doing so.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Gabe2004 10]

Thanks Thales

 

So if account safety would not be an issue, would you say that trading FX and Futures on currencies is equal?

 

Take care

 

Gabe

[thalestrader 14]

Thanks Thales

 

So if account safety would not be an issue, would you say that trading FX and Futures on currencies is equal?

 

Take care

 

Gabe

 

Sure ... though the spreads can be somewhat disadvantageous as well.

 

PS Hal, I'm sorry if we've pushed your thread off track.

[HAL9000 10]

To Thales, Gabe and others,

 

Thales its no problem at all,

this thread is open for nearly everything.

 

And its often much better to discuss a question where it appears

and not on a new thread which is placed here or there.

 

BTW. I also like the futures because its a regulated market.

 

But sometimes I think, that these Forex accounts might be good for

beginners with a very small $ amount, who would like to trade larger

intraday stops.

 

While I try to maintain very small stops with futures (max. 20 ticks on the 6B),

I think at the same time, that it would be easier to just maintain a larger

pivot based one. Or in other words, I have the strong feeling, that I am fooling

myself with that.

 

Anyway, I think, I have found my way now with these small stops,

but I still have to prove it to myself in real.

 

 

Regards,

 

Hal

Edited September 9, 2009 by HAL9000
;-)

[HAL9000 10]

Coincidence on 6B today: