Won't Get Fooled Again

[HAL9000 10]

How should I start?

 

This is my first thread, and my intention is, that this will be my only thread.

 

But what have I to tell you?

 

First of all, I am not consistently profitable yet.

 

Or in other words: I would loose money, if I would trade real!

 

Keep that in mind, if you read my thread, because you might die trying following my approach!!!

(Thought about this as an alternative, strange thread title.)

 

Won't get fooled again, why such a strange title?

 

Well I fooled myself often in the past, too often.

 

 

Now about this thread:

 

I will try to build up a strategy that works for me.

I will nearly start from scratch, and go step by step.

Everyone is invited to post comments or questions.

 

I don't know, if this thread will just end up in another failed ego trip,

or if it will produce something of value.

 

Just give me some time, I think that I see something that is worth to be shown and/or discussed here.

 

BTW.: From time to time I will post some music videos too,

I hope that these will stay available and are viewable in your country.

 

 

And while you give me some time, until it might disappear, enjoy this one:

 

 

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aQUAxN9Sxdo]Won't get fooled again![/ame]

 

 

P.S.: If you try to watch the video, and it tells you, that you should try later, instead:

try to click on the text above the video picture ("Won't get fooled again").

This should redirect you to youtube, and at least, it works for me.

Edited June 5, 2009 by HAL9000

[brownsfan019 17]

Hal - please consider starting w/ something that we discussed here. I would like to see how you develop w/ something so simple. It may not end up there, but worth a shot.

[HAL9000 10]

Hal - please consider starting w/ something that we discussed here. I would like to see how you develop w/ something so simple. It may not end up there, but worth a shot.

 

Hi Brown,

 

yes, I will not forget what you have posted, I think that this (your comments on my post) is a way to consistent gains!

 

I will give you my thoughts now, upfront on what will follow.

 

I have seen how you trade, you trade at the beginning of the RTH,

in other words, during the morning. And that is the key, why it works.

Without any back testing, I just see it. Lets call it common sense.

 

You know I have tried tons of methods and failed.

 

So your method used on my charts or naked charts is one thing I will try to discuss here.

 

There is also a plan B.

I search for something, that is me. If you like to see it this way, its my ego trip. I will discuss that too, I think that I see something, or again, in other words, that I have discovered one of my major mistakes.

And maybe this will add some value here.

Just saying it very carefully.

 

 

Regards,

 

Hal

Edited June 5, 2009 by HAL9000
:)

[brownsfan019 17]

Hal - You are so right. Once I decided to trade only the morning session (when things are moving), I really stepped my profitability up. If I was still trading the entire day, I think my profit would be down and commissions up.

 

But that's part of the process - finding your edge - even if that is a self imposed limit on the amount of time you can trade.

[BlowFish 10]

Best of Luck. Hopefully the simple act of being accountable to your thread will prevent you being fooled again. I am sure lots of people will jump in to tell you if it looks like you are being (fooled).

[daedalus 10]

Keep at it Hal... you'll figure it out. I think the suggestion using the Heiken Ashi as entries and exits can be a very simple and straightforward method.

 

But... focus on waiting for the swings to be nice and smooth... lots of doji's and big wicks and you need to walk away. When the markets are moving... its all good. Maybe applied with some simple patterns (higher highs, high lows, etc) it could be very good.

 

I know the TTM folks do trades called "TTM Rotations" based on the same concept. I'm sure if you search their website you can find some video examples.

 

Cheers!

[HAL9000 10]

- BlowFish, Daedalus:

 

Thank you both for your comments.

Yes, I will try to be accountable here.

In case I do this seriously, this should help me to clarify some things for myself.

 

Regarding Heiken Ashi. I know about the TTM Rotation concept, and I will

show it here too, combined with Brownsfans approach.

 

One of my mistakes in the past was, to mix things up, and trying this and that at nearly the same time.

This experimenting might be good for learning, but its not good for real trading. So its now about to sort things out.

 

Keep what works, throw away the rest.

 

And now its time to write my first real post.

[HAL9000 10]

Step 1:

 

Lets define the point where we start.

And as I see it today, this might be all one needs,

so later on, we always have to come back to this simple view

and ask ourselves, does this new tool/indicator helps us,

or adds it just more decision points, which then might lead into

confusion.

 

But what is my starting point?

Its a 8 tick range bar chart, which includes the night sessions.

(Sometimes a bar has more then 8 ticks, that is because I use 5 s bars as feed.)

 

I also look at 4,12,16 tick range bar charts, but I like the 8, because it has a high resolution,

but is not too noisy at the same time.

Furthermore in my view, range bars have a big advantage, if you use 24 h data.

They just show the price movement, while time or volume is filtered out.

So many indicators, don't have to readjust themselves, when the RTH starts.

 

The chart below shows the last two days.

And within the next steps, I will use this chart again, so that there will be variations

of the same picture again and again.

 

Looking at this chart, I think its obvious to think about trendlines and s/r lines.

I haven't drawn them in, but maybe the first rule should be, respect these lines.

 

 

[HAL9000 10]

Step 2:

 

In an earlier post, I said that I will write more about Heiken Ashi, but this would be somehow misleading. So instead, I will write about about my color coded bars. I use these kind of bars already for quite some time, but I have modified the algorithm often, maybe trying to find the perfect picture. But there is none.

 

I think that this is easy to understand, because basically the color of the bars just depends on price versus a weighted, fast moving average. Well, and light colors appear, whenever the comparison with a 5 linear regression line, tells a different story (this often highlights the beginning of a pullback).

 

Now, looking at the chart below, it might be tradeable, if you just enter pullbacks into the direction of the dominant trend, but using these bars without a further context on quick charts, often tricked me into stupid counter-trend trades (because I hoped for more than a pullback). These trades then quickly ended up stopped. And, oh well, sometimes I have even allowed these trades a wider stop.

BTW.: I think this was my major mistake, combined with realistic (tight, sometimes too tight) stops and unrealistic targets (runner against the trend).

 

But what might be a good context for for these colored bars. Well, in step 1, I mentioned trend lines and s/r lines. Again I haven't drawn any lines, but where do the important color changes start?

They start when trendlines have been broken!

 

So if the context is given by these lines, the question comes up, if finally these colored bars are needed? For now I will keep them on my charts, but maybe at some point in time, I will not need

them anymore.

 

Its much more about patterns like HH, HL, LL, LH, as I see it now, but as I am used to use these colored bars, they can help me now to visualize these patterns (and their strength).

 

 

[SIMPLETRADES 10]

Step 2:

 

In an earlier post, I said that I will write more about Heiken Ashi, but this would be somehow misleading. So instead, I will write about about my color coded bars. I use these kind of bars already for quite some time, but I have modified the algorithm often, maybe trying to find the perfect picture. But there is none.

 

I think that this is easy to understand, because basically the color of the bars just depends on price versus a weighted, fast moving average. Well, and light colors appear, whenever the comparison with a 5 linear regression line, tells a different story (this often highlights the beginning of a pullback).

 

Now, looking at the chart below, it might be tradeable, if you just enter pullbacks into the direction of the dominant trend, but using these bars without a further context on quick charts, often tricked me into stupid counter-trend trades (because I hoped for more than a pullback). These trades then quickly ended up stopped. And, oh well, sometimes I have even allowed these trades a wider stop.

BTW.: I think this was my major mistake, combined with realistic (tight, sometimes too tight) stops and unrealistic targets (runner against the trend).

 

But what might be a good context for for these colored bars. Well, in step 1, I mentioned trend lines and s/r lines. Again I haven't drawn any lines, but where do the important color changes start?

They start when trendlines have been broken!

 

So if the context is given by these lines, the question comes up, if finally these colored bars are needed? For now I will keep them on my charts, but maybe at some point in time, I will not need

them anymore.

 

Its much more about patterns like HH, HL, LL, LH, as I see it now, but as I am used to use these colored bars, they can help me now to visualize these patterns (and their strength).

 

 

 

i'm curious how your paintbars compare to some of mine. what day was the screenshot and what time zone? thanks

[HAL9000 10]

Hi SimpleTrades,

 

the charts above show data from mainly 9th June and 10 June based on the old June contract.

Because I don't update this file anymore, I can go back and play with it as I like now.

As explained in post #8 the gray vertical lines are placed at midnight New York time.

 

But to make it easier, here is, what I currently look at:

 

 

These charts show 12/8/4 "range" bars. (Not real range bars, as I said earlier.)

 

On the 12 range you should see a dark vertical line. This line marks

the begin of Sundays session this week. The gray vertical lines at midnight NY time, so that I don't get lost totally.

 

So on the 8 and 4 range the full day shown between the lines is Wednesday (Yesterday).

 

I think, that these charts also show, that it might be very dangerous (I know it for myself), to just follow blue/red toggles based on a quick 4 range or 8 range chart without looking on the context.

The losers start to rule then, because you have to cut the winners, to recover from your many small losses.

 

So we need filters, if we like to use these toggles.

 

And this should lead to the next step.

 

 

Feel free to post one of your charts here too!

 

 

Hal

Edited June 25, 2009 by HAL9000

[HAL9000 10]

BTW, I just saw that on the 12 range one gray line between Monday and Tuesday is missing. Another error to solve. :doh:

 

It should be between bar 204 and 205 on the 12 r.

Edited June 25, 2009 by HAL9000

[SIMPLETRADES 10]

Hi SimpleTrades,

 

the charts above show data from mainly 9th June and 10 June based on the old June contract.

Because I don't update this file anymore, I can go back and play with it as I like now.

As explained in post #8 the gray vertical lines are placed at midnight New York time.

 

But to make it easier, here is, what I currently look at:

 

 

These charts show 12/8/4 "range" bars. (Not real range bars, as I said earlier.)

 

On the 12 range you should see a dark vertical line. This line marks

the begin of Sundays session this week. The gray vertical lines at midnight NY time, so that I don't get lost totally.

 

So on the 8 and 4 range the full day shown between the lines is Wednesday (Yesterday).

 

I think, that these charts also show, that it might be very dangerous (I know it for myself), to just follow blue/red toggles based on a quick 4 range or 8 range chart without looking on the context.

The losers start to rule then, because you have to cut the winners, to recover from your many small losses.

 

So we need filters, if we like to use these toggles.

 

And this should lead to the next step.

 

 

Feel free to post one of your charts here too!

 

 

Hal

 

my fault, sorry, i didnt look at page 1 of the posts. i know nothing about range bars besides the fact tradestation offers them. i'll look into them, but why not just use a tick chart with a very small setting?

[HAL9000 10]

but why not just use a tick chart with a very small setting?

 

Sorry that I answer late,

 

but I was ill, and more or less I just read here.

 

Anyway, fast tick charts, and I have tried them and they are not for me.

 

They let me enter trades I should not.

 

My charts are based on 5 s data, and well, for a contract like the ES,

5 s might contain 120 or more ticks, if there is action. But even if my brain

finally made a decision (? s). The impulse needs 1 s until my muscles have pressed a key, then the signal still has to be transmitted (one more s?).

 

I watch a tick chart as well, but I sometimes I think, it just hurts me.

 

 

Anyway, it you like them, use them!

[HAL9000 10]

Here is a chart, that I have used today, and I think its damn quick for me.

 

A 9 range EUR / USD chart starting at 5:27 ET today.

 

 

I hope I find the time to write more during the next days,

but while I am still in my brainstorming process,

I believe, that I have made some progress.

 

Time will tell.

[SIMPLETRADES 10]

Here is a chart, that I have used today, and I think its damn quick for me.

 

A 9 range EUR / USD chart starting at 5:27 ET today.

 

 

I hope I find the time to write more during the next days,

but while I am still in my brainstorming process,

I believe, that I have made some progress.

 

Time will tell.

 

thanks, but i read up on range charts and i still cant figure them out and dont intend to keep trying. but good luck with them and i hope you are recovering.

[HAL9000 10]

I still feel frustrated, because I haven't worked on step 3 yet,

while I mess up my thread with charts.

 

But it is necessary in my view, and I made some progress in my view too.

 

I have deleted some more indicators and my charts are cleaner for me now.

 

I will modify them further. Deletion or addition of things,

but currently they look like this (for the 6B, i.e. GBP vs. USD).

 

Anyway, I have already learned much from many here at TL.

 

And I guess, this will go on.

 

I am still a beginner, maybe an intermediate already. :hmmmm:

 

 

[HAL9000 10]

Maybe I am wrong now on my own thread;

I have planned today to trade real again,

but I haven't.

 

Today it was about family affairs, and I think many in here understand without much words.

 

 

I saw a good setup on the AUD-USD but, real life canceled real trading.

 

All in all, its not about money. And all seems to be OK now again.

 

 

Anyway, here are two charts of the JPY-USD CME GLOBEX September contract.

They are not annotated and chosen randomly, maybe because they are nice IMO.

 

Between the dark vertical lines, the end of 20.07.07 and the major part of 21.07.09 is shown.

Or in other words, the dark vertical line is placed at the 1 h trading break.

 

Here there are, and here I stand:

 

7 range:

 

 

14 range:

 

 

Hal

 

P.S.: This is still plan B, but don't forget step 1. :missy:

And maybe it might be necessary for me to take a day off or more,

for more family business.

Well, what is money worth?

 

Guess this would be a good theme for a new thread,

but if you have more than you need, give some away ...

 

I don't have more ...,

but I give some away too.

Edited July 27, 2009 by HAL9000
;-)

[HAL9000 10]

Somehow I mess it up with my thinking about stops.

 

Smaller or larger, but while the pictures are clear to me,

I have to go the last step.

 

Here is what I am looking at:

 

The smallest range of the 6B I look at.

 

Well, with changed (slower) ADXVMA settings.

 

[thalestrader 14]

Step 2:So if the context is given by these lines, the question comes up, if finally these colored bars are needed? For now I will keep them on my charts, but maybe at some point in time, I will not need

them anymore.

 

Its much more about patterns like HH, HL, LL, LH, as I see it now, but as I am used to use these colored bars, they can help me now to visualize these patterns (and their strength).

 

 

 

 

 

Somehow I mess it up with my thinking about stops.

 

Smaller or larger, but while the pictures are clear to me,

I have to go the last step.

 

Here is what I am looking at:

 

The smallest range of the 6B I look at.

 

Well, with changed (slower) ADXVMA settings.

 

 

 

Hi Hal,

 

Two things:

 

1) You do have some remarkably pretty charts. I suspect that some of the prettiness may be hurting you more than helping you, but only you will be able to determine whether I am correct or not in that regard.

 

2) Could you explain a bit more about what you mean when you say "I somehow mess it up with my thinking about stops;" and also, "while the picture is clear to me..." and does that at all tie in to your earlier post where you say "its much more about patterns like HH, HL, LL, LH"?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[HAL9000 10]

Hi Thales,

 

I thought a while about your post, and also about me,

my problems and my trading style.

 

I think the points you have made,

lead me into the center of my problems.

 

Well the indicators, somehow they are all good and valid.

Adding the Rainbow was just an experiment,

because I know deep inside myself,

what mistakes I still make,

what decisions I have to make.

 

I think, that the rainbow on this "quick" chart,

shows, that my current fixed stops are too small.

Well, I can scalp with them, but for catching a trend,

some more room would be helpful, and sometimes less

might be necessary.

 

Also in my mind is, that stops based on pivots make more sense,

so I should use them, maybe with another contract (like the NQ for now).

 

For the HH, and so on. Yes they are still important,

but I think one more mistake I make, that lately I have recognized,

that trade more and more again from these "quick" charts,

but this leads in combination with my small stops to scalps or stopped traded.

 

So while the pictures are clear, my execution technique lacks behind.

 

 

Regards,

 

Hal

[HAL9000 10]

Well, today I decided to stay with the 6B,

that's what I have worked on for a while,

and its not good to switch everyday.

 

Execution is my problem,

maybe much more confidence in my charts and in myself.

 

Anyway here are two more pictures;

maybe you see the way you would trade them?

 

I have recognized for myself, that for now,

I should scalp, because this is, what I can handle now.

 

Well, maybe at sometime i the future,

I will be able to get my runners.

I see them on the 29 range, but I have to start where I am.

And I am, what I am.

 

Even, if I fail.

 

So here they are, the last days on a 29 r 6B

and today on a 14 r 6B:

 

 

 

 

P.S.: The pictures are not so clean everyday.

[thalestrader 14]

I think the points you have made,

lead me into the center of my problems ... while the pictures are clear, my execution technique lacks behind.

 

 

Regards,

 

Hal

 

And how do you understand your execution problems? I think you know, and I also think you are closer to success than you yourself think you are.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[HAL9000 10]

And how do you understand your execution problems? I think you know, and I also think you are closer to success than you yourself think you are.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Thales,

 

my execution problems are more mental, then anything else now.

 

I haven't drawn trendlines or s/r lines, but they are there.

 

Browns setup is there! On the 29 range! (Step 3)

 

Somehow everything seems to be there!

 

Its not even about a written plan in my view,

its about loosing fear, and about

to click the mouse button in real.

 

 

Regards,

 

Hal

[HAL9000 10]

Don't stone me (Thales),

 

yes I might be close,

I play with my pictures,

but just old stuff.

 

So here is another picture,

Friday to Monday somewhere within July.

 

Just another picture,

just old things.

 

Its all there.

 

And time will come soon,

where my metal issues will be solved, or ...

 

Anyway, ...