Was This a Valid Short

[Eiger 10]

Re: BF's post: Going beyond a few posts on this question brought us into psychology more than the method. Both, of course, are crucial.

 

But, let's return this thread to a constructive one ....

 

Here is the current chart of the daily SPY. I like to look at the SPYs because the volume is so clear. Let's discuss what you see. What is the background here and how might this inform our trading for tomorrow? Just look at this logically. What is occuring overall in the market and what has happened recently? What does you analysis suggest for tomorrow?

[sevensa 10]

Just one observation as a non-vsa guy - the thread was rather simple 'is this a short'. It quickly turned into a 3 page discussion w/ all sorts of opinions.

 

What appears to an outsider as a simple question has needed 3 pages so far and there are still questions.

 

Don't take this the wrong way, but does this stuff work in real-time? If so, can any of the VSA'ers join us in the p/l thread and show that it does? I've seen this kind of stuff discussed here for a while, yet have never seen any definitive proof of this working in real-time.

 

I ask b/c if no one is making this work in real-time, then these questions are just the blind leading the blind.

 

We can probably quickly go through few pages as well if one ask the question about is "this hammer" or "shooting star" a valid buy or short since not all hammers and not all shooting stars are buy and sell signals if you don't place them in context and look at the background and where they occur.

 

With candle patterns, there will be some people profitable and some not, as will there be with VSA. Posting a P/L statement doesn't say anything about VSA, Candles, Mooncycles, etc; just the trader. I for one have seen no prove in the P/L thread that trading candle patterns work; just that some traders are profitable with whatever method they are trading.

[forrestang 10]

Re: BF's post: Going beyond a few posts on this question brought us into psychology more than the method. Both, of course, are crucial.

 

But, let's return this thread to a constructive one ....

 

Here is the current chart of the daily SPY. I like to look at the SPYs because the volume is so clear. Let's discuss what you see. What is the background here and how might this inform our trading for tomorrow? Just look at this logically. What is occuring overall in the market and what has happened recently? What does you analysis suggest for tomorrow?

 

Hmmmm.....

 

Well as you mentioned earlier, we've been in a trading range for a while now. We had our Break Through Supply, we've had an up day on what appears to be less than average volume, with a middle close....'No Demnad?'

 

So, we're probably due for a retracement or an up move. I'd suggest based on closing volume we should expect a retracement back to what is now support. Trades to the short side should be expected, but we won't know till tomorrow?

 

Any other opinions?

[BlowFish 10]

The volume on SPY looks quite different here I wonder why? Edit ahh I think there is a bar kind of hidden at the right hand edge.

 

S&P DEP RECEIPTS | SPY | Charts - Yahoo! Finance

[diablo272 10]

The volume data for that chart is definitely very wrong.

 

Also wrong, but more correct:

 

http://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&q=AMEX:SPY

[Eiger 10]

Thanks to Forrest for taking a shot at the chart. Here’s how I look at this chart:

 

SPYs have been in an uptrend since early March as have the other major indices. The uptrend has been quite strong. Even in the correction during May, the S&Ps gained nearly 5%. The last correction held gains well. I see the larger background as quite bullish.

 

We’ve just broken up and through the supply area of the recent congestion. We did so with healthy volume and wide spreads. There have been four up days in a row. Monday’s (6/1) price bar closed in the middle, indicating some level of supply – perhaps profit-taking. Tuesday’s (6/2) price bar also closed mid-range. The spread narrowed and the volume fell off. Volume is less than the previous two bars and is a No Demand bar.

 

Four consecutive up days is a pretty good run for the SPYs, especially the near vertical rise we’ve had since May 28. Yesterday (6/2) made little further progress above the high of Monday. The daily thrust is shortening. The two mid-range closes suggest demand is pulling back, as does the lack of volume yesterday. The indications from the daily chart point to a reaction of some degree. We often see a testing after a breakout to check for any residual supply, and this would seem to be taking place here. If the market trades near the highs of yesterday I would look for a short. If it trades lower overnight, then I would be looking to short rallies. I would anticipate the market at least trading down to and testing the lows of Monday/highs of Friday over the next couple of days. Keep in mind that the market is overall very bullish. So, I would expect that any reaction at this point would be minor before we begin to rally again. If the market holds above yesterday’s close or rallies above yesterday’s high, I would be very quick to change my assessment

 

Hope this is helpful,

 

Eiger

[brownsfan019 17]

I don't appreciate your repeated "harassment/invitation" to join your p/l thread.

 

There are reasons for participation,

and there are reasons for opt-out.

 

Proving one's method works is NOT a reason to post at the p/l thread.

 

Fair enough. But I also don't appreciate you trying to moderate my thread. If the thread is of no use to you, let the moderator moderate it and don't waste your time there.

 

[Tams 20]

Fair enough. But I also don't appreciate you trying to moderate my thread. If the thread is of no use to you, let the moderator moderate it and don't waste your time there.

 

 

 

 

stop being childish

 

 

take your OT editorial elsewhere

 

 

 

.

Edited June 3, 2009 by Tams

[forrestang 10]

Some good trading in there today.

 

My attempt at looking at the background in attached pic.

 

---EDIT----

On that last bubble, I mean if we get a bounce of the previous resistance area, expect a nice trend to the upside to develop.

[nkhoi 10]

Just one observation as a non-vsa guy - the thread was rather simple 'is this a short'. It quickly turned into a 3 page discussion w/ all sorts of opinions.

 

What appears to an outsider as a simple question has needed 3 pages so far and there are still questions.

 

Don't take this the wrong way, but does this stuff work in real-time? If so, can any of the VSA'ers join us in the p/l thread and show that it does? I've seen this kind of stuff discussed here for a while, yet have never seen any definitive proof of this working in real-time.

 

I ask b/c if no one is making this work in real-time, then these questions are just the blind leading the blind.

from the way the question posted, forrestang was looking for some guidance on how to figure out what going on in the market, posting a p/l wil help him none.