Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

gifropan

Does Traditional Trading Advice Work?

Recommended Posts

Sorry. Stopped Out at Break Even. :)

 

Ahh, thanks. Learnt something new there:) Actually the two charts where pretty interesting too from the point of view of how someone might manage the meanderings of price between 'R' and 'S'.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just posting a chart of my trading today to illustrate the point i made earlier in the thread.

 

It was a really slow and boring today, there was a complete lack of volatility in the market and after the worse then expected figures we just trended down all day. I had four trades, all going with the trend using a trading style that i like to use when volatility and momentum is low. I went with the trend,adjusted my came plan to how the market was trading, and i walked away with 8 points on ES, and not one of my trades was a buy.

 

Do you need a better example of the trend is your friend?

 

 

How does support/resistance match up with trends. Because as the price approaches a support, for example, it is in a short term downtrend. So buying at support you are not actually going with the immediate trend or are we buying in the slightly higher time frame which would make it in the direction of the trend.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You say you only use a 5 tick stop. What profit target do you use if you stop is only 5 ticks and how long do your trades last? I always find that close stops get taken out all the time.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
You say you only use a 5 tick stop. What profit target do you use if you stop is only 5 ticks and how long do your trades last? I always find that close stops get taken out all the time.

 

 

I hate these types of questions lol :)

 

5 ticks is just fine for my trading, but it all depends on market conditions, if there's massive momentum and volatility in the market then at times i will go up to a 2pt stop, but only rarely. If you're right you're right, if you're wrong then you're wrong, no need to use a massive stop. Plus if a trade changes after i'm in it i'll just scratch it or take a 1tick loss on it.

 

As for exit targets, once again, all depends on how the market is trading. For example yesterday was pretty damn slow, complete lack of volatility etc, so i was just taking 2pts on my trades. Near the end of the day we broke the tight range of the session and momentum kicked in and i took 6pts on that trade. It's all about feel, being able think quickly on your feet and being fickle. There's no A+B=C in trading, you just have to put the time in to develop your feel and find what suits you, because no two traders are the same.

 

I know it's not the answer people want, but it is what it is.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It's all about feel, being able think quickly on your feet and being fickle. There's no A+B=C in trading, you just have to put the time in to develop your feel and find what suits you, because no two traders are the same.

 

I know it's not the answer people want, but it is what it is.

 

It's also about having a trading plan and a well-thought-out strategy, which is a far more rare combination than it should be.

 

Learning to trade via message board posts will only take one so far, like from here to here. If one wants to get from here to ........................................ here, that takes a bit more work.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It's also about having a trading plan and a well-thought-out strategy, which is a far more rare combination than it should be.

 

Learning to trade via message board posts will only take one so far, like from here to here. If one wants to get from here to ........................................ here, that takes a bit more work.

 

What he said :)

 

You wouldn't think you would become a top barrister by just reading a few books and an internet forum would you...

 

I do find it shocking the amount of people who think trading is going to be easy to learn and is a quick path to riches.

 

It's a job, a professional job and it takes time to get anywhere with it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
What he said :)

 

You wouldn't think you would become a top barrister by just reading a few books and an internet forum would you...

 

I do find it shocking the amount of people who think trading is going to be easy to learn and is a quick path to riches.

 

It's a job, a professional job and it takes time to get anywhere with it.

 

This is an excerpt from something I posted yesterday. It's made the rounds, and old-timers will already have read it.

 

38 Steps To Becoming A Successful Trader

 

  1. We accumulate trading information - buying books, going to seminars and researching.

  2. We begin to trade with our 'new' knowledge.

  3. We consistently 'donate' and then realize we may need more knowledge or information.

  4. We accumulate more information.

  5. We switch the commodities [or stocks, or futures, or...] we are currently following.

  6. We go back into the market and trade with our 'updated' knowledge.

  7. We get 'beat up' again and begin to lose some of our confidence. Fear starts setting in.

  8. We start to listen to 'outside news' & other traders.

  9. We go back into the market and continue to donate.

  10. We switch commodities again.

  11. We search for more trading information.

  12. We go back into the market and continue to donate.

  13. We get 'overconfident' & market humbles us.

  14. We start to understand that trading success fully is going to take more time and more knowledge then we anticipated.
     
    Most People Will Give Up At This Point As They Realize Work is Involved

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
This is an excerpt from something I posted yesterday. It's made the rounds, and old-timers will already have read it.

 

38 Steps To Becoming A Successful Trader

 

  1. We accumulate trading information - buying books, going to seminars and researching.

  2. We begin to trade with our 'new' knowledge.

  3. We consistently 'donate' and then realize we may need more knowledge or information.

  4. We accumulate more information.

  5. We switch the commodities [or stocks, or futures, or...] we are currently following.

  6. We go back into the market and trade with our 'updated' knowledge.

  7. We get 'beat up' again and begin to lose some of our confidence. Fear starts setting in.

  8. We start to listen to 'outside news' & other traders.

  9. We go back into the market and continue to donate.

  10. We switch commodities again.

  11. We search for more trading information.

  12. We go back into the market and continue to donate.

  13. We get 'overconfident' & market humbles us.

  14. We start to understand that trading success fully is going to take more time and more knowledge then we anticipated.
     
    Most People Will Give Up At This Point As They Realize Work is Involved

 

bang on mate, couldn't of said it better

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It seems everyone agrees that trend-trading works, although the evidence presented seems mostly anecdotal. FWIW, here is what my testing shows:

 

1. swing and long-term trading- trend trading does not work for stock index futures (e.g. ES) and has not worked for many years. Still works generally for commodities, although not in the last year.

 

2. day trading- will work with the right strategy (such as mentioned by many of the contributors), but not so much this year, where there have been an inordinate number of afternoon reverses- look at yesterday (June 10) for example.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It seems everyone agrees that trend-trading works, although the evidence presented seems mostly anecdotal. FWIW, here is what my testing shows:

 

1. swing and long-term trading- trend trading does not work for stock index futures (e.g. ES) and has not worked for many years. Still works generally for commodities, although not in the last year.

 

2. day trading- will work with the right strategy (such as mentioned by many of the contributors), but not so much this year, where there have been an inordinate number of afternoon reverses- look at yesterday (June 10) for example.

 

Your input is appreciated, however, that means nothing without specifying what exactly you define as "swing and long-term" and "day" trading. If you simply say something like "a strategy that exploits the trend does not work for day trading," that statement really doesn't mean very much, because there are many different ways to trade intraday. Of course, it would also help to know what you mean by "trend trading".

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Your input is appreciated, however, that means nothing without specifying what exactly you define as "swing and long-term" and "day" trading".

 

"Means nothing" unless I define 3 basic trading terms?

 

Hmmm.

 

I'll give 1 example before I go. Take your favorite trend system (MA cross, MACD, breakout) and run it on a daily chart of the ES for the last 10 years. What do you find?

 

Now I'll bow out and let the trading myths and anecdotes continue.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
"Means nothing" unless I define 3 basic trading terms?

 

Hmmm.

 

I'll give 1 example before I go. Take your favorite trend system (MA cross, MACD, breakout) and run it on a daily chart of the ES for the last 10 years. What do you find?

 

Now I'll bow out and let the trading myths and anecdotes continue.

 

Hi there,

 

No need take a bow, friend. What we have here, no doubt, is failure to communicate.

 

I think that while you understand what you intended to communicate in your first post, it was not presented in such a way as to allow those of us who are not as wise as you to comprehend.

 

For example, the phrase "trend trading does not work" seems just a bit vague. What do you mean by "doesn't work?" Do you mean that it is unprofitable to trade with the trend? Or do you mean that trend following produces a small percentage of profitable trades relative to losing trades? Or do you mean something else altogether?

 

In my experience, I have found that it is best to define one's terms as accurately and comprehesibly as possible, for we cannot assume that one's interlocutors possess the same understanding as does oneself.

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Oops- that was a long only example. Here is the result using a standard (12,26,9) MACD long and short on 10 year daily ES data with $25 RT for slippage and commssion..

 

If you're defining trend as an MAXO (or any other indicator cross or hook or whatever), then of course you're correct; it won't work. But an MAXO is not the traditional definition of "trend", i.e., higher highs and higher lows or vice-versa. Yesterday, for example, there was a very nice trend in the NQ from the market open to 14:00, then another in the opposite direction until the close.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi db,

 

Per my first post, I agree with you that there are intraday trends that can be profitably traded, although it has been more difficult recently. Perhaps others have also found this.

 

btw, I found yesterday more difficult than you did, db. (smiling).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi db,

 

Per my first post, I agree with you that there are intraday trends that can be profitably traded, although it has been more difficult recently. Perhaps others have also found this.

 

btw, I found yesterday more difficult than you did, db. (smiling).

 

If it were easy, everybody would be doing it.

 

Oh wait......

 

:)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi Thales,

 

I meant unprofitable. I attach a performance report on a simple Moving Average Crossover as an example.

 

Hi Windsurfer,

 

Thank you for clarifying your meaning. That moves us in the direction of what might prove to be a fruitful discussion, and I hope you will humor me as I do find this to be an interesting topic, and I myself am not at all clear on how I'd respond the facts stated in your report.

 

For the purposes of our discussion, you are of the opinion that trend trading does not work, by which you mean to say that trend trading is unprofitable.

 

Furthermore, for our purposes here, you define a trend in terms of the relationship of two moving averages to one another.

 

Would you agree, however, that such a definition of a trend, and thus what it means, strictly speaking, to be a "trend trader," may not be a universally accepted means of defining a price trend?

 

Would you be willing to accept that, strictly speaking, there exist, in any particular time frame, three possible trends in which price can move: 1) an uptrend, characterized by a series of higher price highs and higher price lows, 2) a down trend, characterized by a series of lower price lows and lower price highs, and 3) a sideways trend, characterized by a series of overlapping price movements resulting in no measurable net movement up or down?

 

In other words, would you be able to agree with me, that a trend is primarily determined by the movement of price itself, and only derivitively and thus, arbitrarily defined by, say, a moving average, which is an average of price movement over a period of time selected by the technician, and not dictated by the observable movement of price itself?

 

I think that is enough for now, as in order for us test your opinion on the workability of trend trading, we must make sure that we are in agreement as to the basic terms of the discussion.

 

I appreciate your patience with me.

 

Thank you,

 

Thales

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi Thales,

 

I meant unprofitable. I attach a performance report on a simple Moving Average Crossover as an example.

 

I think this is pretty common knowledge that moving average crossover systems are not profitable. Applying a known non profitable trending system to a market doesn't prove that the market is non trending; it proves that the system as applied is not profitable.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I disagree................

 

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=11304&stc=1&d=1244762735

 

erie

 

Not sure what this proves either, or that this is even a MA crossover system for that matter. This is pretty easy to curve any system and post a screen print of a profitable sample. However, I have no interest to get into an arguement about this. If you are happy with your MA crossover system, assuming this even is one, then good for you.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I think this is pretty common knowledge that moving average crossover systems are not profitable. Applying a known non profitable trending system to a market doesn't prove that the market is non trending; it proves that the system as applied is not profitable.

 

I agree (with some reservation) and thank you for putting this so succinctly. What I would like to see is the case laid bare showing that trend trading is indeed profitable so ong as one is trading based upon what price is doing, and not on the results of an arbitrarily selected arithmetically derived value(s) from price.

 

My reservation is simply this: While I do not use and would not use such a system to make trading decisions, I would hesitate to argue that all such systems are unprofitable. With a money management system based upon position sizing based upon predetermined inital hard stop points, I believe that even a random entry method could be profitable over the long term.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Not sure what this proves either, or that this is even a MA crossover system for that matter. This is pretty easy to curve any system and post a screen print of a profitable sample. However, I have no interest to get into an arguement about this. If you are happy with your MA crossover system, assuming this even is one, then good for you.

 

 

All anyone has to do is write the ma crossover system for themselves or get someone to write it for them to prove whether blanket statements ,"this is not profitable" is true or not. It's not rocket science. I don't care if you believe me or not. That is not my problem......... It is a breakout strategy of a ma crossover. Remember to keep an open mind and try all timeframes and different combination of ma's.

 

erie

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Thx for reminding us... I don't bang that drum often enough anymore Another part for consideration is who that money initially went to...
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • How long does it take to receive HFM's withdrawal via Skrill? less than 24H?
    • My wife Robin just wanted some groceries.   Simple enough.   She parked the car for fifteen minutes, and returned to find a huge scratch on the side.   Someone keyed her car.   To be clear, this isn’t just any car.   It’s a Cybertruck—Elon Musk's stainless-steel spaceship on wheels. She bought it back in 2021, before Musk became everyone's favorite villain or savior.   Someone saw it parked in a grocery lot and felt compelled to carve their hatred directly into the metal.   That's what happens when you stand out.   Nobody keys a beige minivan.   When you're polarizing, you're impossible to ignore. But the irony is: the more attention something has, the harder it is to find the truth about it.   What’s Elon Musk really thinking? What are his plans? What will happen with DOGE? Is he deserving of all of this adoration and hate? Hard to say.   Ideas work the same way.   Take tariffs, for example.   Tariffs have become the Cybertrucks of economic policy. People either love them or hate them. Even if they don’t understand what they are and how they work. (Most don’t.)   That’s why, in my latest podcast (link below), I wanted to explore the “in-between” truth about tariffs.   And like Cybertrucks, I guess my thoughts on tariffs are polarizing.   Greg Gutfield mentioned me on Fox News. Harvard professors hate me now. (I wonder if they also key Cybertrucks?)   But before I show you what I think about tariffs… I have to mention something.   We’re Headed to Austin, Texas This weekend, my team and I are headed to Austin. By now, you should probably know why.   Yes, SXSW is happening. But my team and I are doing something I think is even better.   We’re putting on a FREE event on “Tech’s Turning Point.”   AI, quantum, biotech, crypto, and more—it’s all on the table.   Just now, we posted a special webpage with the agenda.   Click here to check it out and add it to your calendar.   The Truth About Tariffs People love to panic about tariffs causing inflation.   They wave around the ghost of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff from the Great Depression like it’s Exhibit A proving tariffs equal economic collapse.   But let me pop this myth:   Tariffs don’t cause inflation. And no, I'm not crazy (despite what angry professors from Harvard or Stanford might tweet at me).   Here's the deal.   Inflation isn’t when just a couple of things become pricier. It’s when your entire shopping basket—eggs, shirts, Netflix subscriptions, bananas, everything—starts costing more because your money’s worth less.   Inflation means your dollars aren’t stretching as far as they used to.   Take the 1800s.   For nearly a century, 97% of America’s revenue came from tariffs. Income tax? Didn’t exist. And guess what inflation was? Basically zero. Maybe 1% a year.   The economy was booming, and tariffs funded nearly everything. So, why do people suddenly think tariffs cause inflation today?   Tariffs are taxes on imports, yes, but prices are set by supply and demand—not tariffs.   Let me give you a simple example.   Imagine fancy potato chips from Canada cost $10, and a 20% tariff pushes that to $12. Everyone panics—prices rose! Inflation!   Nope.   If I only have $100 to spend and the price of my favorite chips goes up, I either stop buying chips or I buy, say, fewer newspapers.   If everyone stops buying newspapers because they’re overspending on chips, newspapers lower their prices or go out of business.   Overall spending stays the same, and inflation doesn’t budge.   Three quick scenarios:   We buy pricier chips, but fewer other things: Inflation unchanged. Manufacturers shift to the U.S. to avoid tariffs: Inflation unchanged (and more jobs here). We stop buying fancy chips: Prices drop again. Inflation? Still unchanged. The only thing that actually causes inflation is printing money.   Between 2020 and 2022 alone, 40% of all money ever created in history appeared overnight.   That’s why inflation shot up afterward—not because of tariffs.   Back to tariffs today.   Still No Inflation Unlike the infamous Smoot-Hawley blanket tariff (imagine Oprah handing out tariffs: "You get a tariff, and you get a tariff!"), today's tariffs are strategic.   Trump slapped tariffs on chips from Taiwan because we shouldn’t rely on a single foreign supplier for vital tech components—especially if that supplier might get invaded.   Now Taiwan Semiconductor is investing $100 billion in American manufacturing.   Strategic win, no inflation.   Then there’s Canada and Mexico—our friendly neighbors with weirdly huge tariffs on things like milk and butter (299% tariff on butter—really, Canada?).   Trump’s not blanketing everything with tariffs; he’s pressuring trade partners to lower theirs.   If they do, everybody wins. If they don’t, well, then we have a strategic trade chess game—but still no inflation.   In short, tariffs are about strategy, security, and fairness—not inflation.   Yes, blanket tariffs from the Great Depression era were dumb. Obviously. Today's targeted tariffs? Smart.   Listen to the whole podcast to hear why I think this.   And by the way, if you see a Cybertruck, don’t key it. Robin doesn’t care about your politics; she just likes her weird truck.   Maybe read a good book, relax, and leave cars alone.   (And yes, nobody keys Volkswagens, even though they were basically created by Hitler. Strange world we live in.) Source: https://altucherconfidential.com/posts/the-truth-about-tariffs-busting-the-inflation-myth    Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/       
    • No, not if you are comparing apples to apples. What we call “poor” is obviously a pretty high bar but if you’re talking about like a total homeless shambling skexie in like San Fran then, no. The U.S.A. in not particularly kind to you. It is not an abuse so much as it is a sad relatively minor consequence of our optimism and industriousness.   What you consider rich changes with circumstances obviously. If you are genuinely poor in the U.S.A., you experience a quirky hodgepodge of unhelpful and/or abstract extreme lavishnesses while also being alienated from your social support network. It’s about the same as being a refugee. For a fraction of the ‘kindness’ available to you in non bio-available form, you could have simply stayed closer to your people and been MUCH better off.   It’s just a quirk of how we run the place and our values; we are more worried about interfering with people’s liberty and natural inclination to do for themselves than we are about no bums left behind. It is a slightly hurtful position and we know it; we are just scared to death of socialism cancer and we’re willing to put our money where our mouth is.   So, if you’re a bum; you got 5G, the ER will spend like $1,000,000 on you over a hangnail but then kick you out as soon as you’re “stabilized”, the logistics are surpremely efficient, you have total unchecked freedom of speech, real-estate, motels, and jobs are all natural healthy markets in perfect competition, you got compulsory three ‘R’’s, your military owns the sky, sea, space, night, information-space, and has the best hairdos, you can fill out paper and get all the stuff up to and including a Ph.D. Pretty much everything a very generous, eager, flawless go-getter with five minutes to spare would think you might need.   It’s worse. Our whole society is competitive and we do NOT value or make any kumbaya exception. The last kumbaya types we had werr the Shakers and they literally went extinct. Pueblo peoples are still around but they kind of don’t count since they were here before us. So basically, if you’re poor in the U.S.A., you are automatically a loser and a deadbeat too. You will be treated as such by anybody not specifically either paid to deal with you or shysters selling bejesus, Amway, and drugs. Plus, it ain’t safe out there. Not everybody uses muhfreedoms to lift their truck, people be thugging and bums are very vulnerable here. The history of a large mobile workforce means nobody has a village to go home to. Source: https://askdaddy.quora.com/Are-the-poor-people-in-the-United-States-the-richest-poor-people-in-the-world-6   Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/ 
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.