Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

bathrobe

Breakout Trade Strategies on ES

Recommended Posts

Well since I began to explain, I might as well continue. My EMA colors used are aqua 14, pink 50, dark blue 250. I was looking at the hour chart and noticing that the yellow and blue boxes appear very similar in an inverse fashion. Although I do not trade hourly bars, it makes my point blurry without further clarification (or a bigger contextual chart to view). The blue box responded to a 50% major trend fibonacci retracement, and broke upward.

The idea of early or late in the trend is more clearly seen on the 5 minute chart, with the price high late in the trend.

On my 5 minute chart I use daily pivots. On the hourly, weekly pivots. I also use a series of EMA envelopes. The one simple thing that I will share is that I have devised a measurement of how far price crosses above or below the 50 EMA before a trend is out of momentum, and will then trade sideways or reverse. So for a made up example: for an up trend on the 5 minute bars, if the price goes 4 points below the 50ema , I consider the up trend to have lost momentum. This means that a channel can develop and last for numerous oscillations, if it follows an lengthy trend.

So to avoid getting off topic, let's say that there are other factors that I use to see strong support and resistance levels. I consider these also for direction of breakout, but am not going into them for brevity sake. The simple idea of the probability of the channel break in the direction of the hourly and triggered on the 5 minute is what I offer for now. Combined with the thought of using forex market opening and closings for timing triggers.

Not easy to cram and limit in a few paragraphs what is a extensive system.

Like I said, breakout's are not my favorite thing to play, they come down to probability and avoiding fakeouts. My system is really about the average range of a breakout hitting strong support/ resistance and fading the stretched range.

Edited by Eric Johnson

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you want to trade break outs, then you should be looking at the bigger time frames such as daily, monthly and weekly for key s/r levels and over all direction in the market. For example, last week in ES has been a great trading week as the market has been repeatedly trying to test resistance on the daily chart and consolidating, and on the weekly time frame we're approaching key resistance. I've attached a couple of charts....

 

Remember that 'day trading' simply means that you close out your positions at the end of the day. It doesn't mean that you're restricted to use small time frames like the 5min chart, which isn't really going to tell you that much in the grand scheme of things. You need to know what the market is doing, and looking at the large time frames will help you identify this so that during a trading session, you can position yourself to take advantage of the big runs and breakouts during the day. There's no point taking a breakout to the upside on a 5min chart when there's key weekly resistance 2points above you.... trade smart....

 

 

boost

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes I agree with your point, a look at the daily is valuable. Most days the day price action is not on a major support resistance level. Also if it is, there is generally consolidation, and the question is when and what direction will it break out. The problem with breakouts is that unless you use wide stops, one needs some real precision to target the breakout action, and avoid the false break.

The one hour does show the price action with about 2 months or more on a single screen of clearer definition. Showing things like formations, averages, exhaustion bars, or rejection levels. Getting down to the 5 minute trigger seems useful, that is when I have seen the market respond. As for the bigger runs you speak of, I catch them with my large envelopes. The ranges are tightly reflected on the hourly.

Actually there is one more EMA I use that is the 600 ema on both charts. It ties me into bigger time frames. The reason that I use the 5 and 60 min is that the ma's correlate. Something like my 200 ma on my 5 minute is similar to my 50 on the hourly. Also the pivots tie me into higher frames.

So everybody has their objectives, and the daily perspective is something I agree with and use. Just trying to simplify and focus on key aspects, that would are a bit unique to what I have been using.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If I'd had known this thread was here, hehe.

 

Here's a slight breakout I traded in ES just now. Conservative target was there. 2nd green would have been better, but oh well.

 

---EDIT----

2ND picture is the resistance area that price broke through.

5aa70f4499a85_26Oct2009_ESTrade.thumb.jpg.f00c1b518fc8ec6cde6f208629de57f1.jpg

5aa70f449fc6d_26Oct2009_ESTrade2.jpg.038c0d3a59ebe06fc67d05b42b390f9b.jpg

Edited by forrestang

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If I'd had known this thread was here, hehe.

 

Here's a slight breakout I traded in ES just now. Conservative target was there. 2nd green would have been better, but oh well.

 

---EDIT----

2ND picture is the resistance area that price broke through.

 

Something does not jive between the two charts on the left.

It seems as if the 15 min is missing data.

 

Gabe

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't trade the ES. But do you guys think that there is a fixed time for its breakout ?

 

For e.g, SGX nifty always breaks out of its range between 12 am to 1 pm EST.

 

Have you noted anything like that for ES too?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I don't trade the ES. But do you guys think that there is a fixed time for its breakout ?

 

For e.g, SGX nifty always breaks out of its range between 12 am to 1 pm EST.

 

Have you noted anything like that for ES too?

 

can you show me a few charts of this SGX break out phenomenon?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • HLF Herbalife stock, watch for a bull flag breakout above 9.02 at https://stockconsultant.com/?HLF
    • Date: 1st April 2025.   Will Gold’s Rally Hold Strong as New Trade Tariffs Take Effect Tomorrow?   Gold continues to increase in value for a sixth consecutive day and is trading more than 17% higher in 2025. Amid fear of higher inflation, a recession and the tariffs war escalating investors continue to invest into Gold pushing demand higher. The trade policy from April 2nd onwards continues to be a key factor for the whole market. Can Gold maintain its upward trend? Trade Policy From Tomorrow Onwards Starting as soon as tomorrow, a 25% tariff will be imposed on all passenger cars imported into the United States. While this White House policy is anticipated to negatively affect European industrial performance, it will also lead to higher transportation and maintenance costs for everyday American taxpayers. The negative impact expected on both the EU and US is one of the reasons investors continue to buy Gold. Additionally, last month, President Donald Trump announced reciprocal sanctions against any trade partners that impose import restrictions on US goods. Furthermore, tariffs on products from Canada and the EU could increase even more if they attempt to coordinate a response. Overall, investors continue to worry that new trade barriers will prompt retaliatory measures, particularly from China, the Eurozone, and Japan. Any retaliation is likely to escalate the trade conflict and prompt another reaction from the US. Experts at Goldman Sachs and other investment banks warn that this will lead to rising inflation and unemployment. They also caution that it could effectively halt economic growth in the US.   XAUUSD 1-Hour Chart   The Weakness In The US Dollar Another factor which is allowing the price of XAUUSD to increase in value is the US Dollar which has been unable to maintain any bullish momentum. Despite last week’s Core PCE Price Index rising to its highest level since February 2024, the US Dollar has been unable to see any significant rise in value. Due to the US Dollar and Gold's inverse correlation, the price of Gold is benefiting from the Dollar weakness. Investors worry that new trade barriers will prompt retaliatory measures from China, the Eurozone, and Japan, potentially escalating the conflict. Experts at The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. believe that such actions by the US administration will drive rising inflation and unemployment while effectively halting economic growth in the country. Can Gold Maintain Momentum? When it comes to technical analysis, the price of Gold is not trading at a price where oscillators are indicating the instrument is overbought. The Relative Strength Index currently trades at 68.88, outside of the overbought area, since Gold’s price fell 0.65% during this morning’s session. However, even with this decline, the price still remains 0.40% higher than the day’s open price. In terms of fundamental analysis, there continues to be plenty of factors indicating the price could continue to rise. However, the price movement of the week will also partially depend on the employment data from the US. The US is due to release the JOLTS Job Vacancies for February this afternoon, the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change tomorrow, and the NFP Change and Unemployment Rate on Friday. If all data reads higher than expectations, investors may look to sell to lock in profits at the high price. Key Takeaway Points: Gold’s Rally Continues – Up 17% in 2025 as investors seek safety from inflation, recession fears, and trade tensions. Trade War Impact – New US tariffs and potential retaliation from China, the EU, and Japan drive uncertainty, boosting Gold demand. Weak US Dollar – The Dollar’s struggle supports Gold’s rise due to their inverse correlation. Gold’s Outlook – Uptrend may continue, but US jobs data could trigger profit-taking. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 31st March 2025.   Trump Confirms Tariffs on All Countries, Sending Stocks Lower.   The NASDAQ continues to trade lower due to the US confirming the latest tariffs will be on all countries. In addition to this, bearish volatility also is largely due to the higher inflation data from Friday. The NASDAQ declines to its lowest price since September 11th 2024. Core PCE Price Index - Inflation Increases Again! The PCE Price Index read 2.5% aligning with expert forecasts not triggering any alarm bells. However, the Core PCE Price Index rose from 0.3% to 0.4% MoM and from 2.7% to 2.8% YoY, signalling growing inflationary pressure. This increases the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will maintain elevated interest rates for an extended period. The NASDAQ fell 2.60% due to the higher inflation reading which is known to pressure the stock market due to pressure on consumer demand and a more hawkish Federal Reserve. Boston Fed President Susan Collins recently commented that tariffs could drive up inflation, though the long-term impact remains uncertain. She told journalists that a short-term spike is the most probable outcome but believes the current pause in monetary policy adjustments is appropriate given the prevailing uncertainties. Although, certain investment banks such as JP Morgan actually believe the Federal Reserve will be forced into cutting rates. This is due to expectations that the economy will struggle under the new trade policy. For example, JP Morgan expects the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts but will quickly cut towards the end of 2025. Market Risk Appetite Takes a Hit! A big factor for the day is the drop in the risk appetite of investors. This can be seen from the VIX which is up almost 6%, Gold which is trading 1.30% higher and the Japanese Yen which is the day’s best performing currency. Most safe haven assets, bar the US Dollar, increase in value. It is also worth noting that all indices are decreasing in value during this morning's Asian session with the Nikkei225 and NASDAQ witnessing the strongest decline. Previously the stock market rose in value as investors heard rumours that tariffs would only be on certain countries. This bullish swing occurred between March 14th and 25th. Over the weekend, President Donald Trump indicated that the upcoming tariffs would apply to all countries, not just those with the largest trade imbalances with the US. NASDAQ - Technical Analysis In terms of technical analysis, the NASDAQ continues to obtain indications that sellers control the price action. The price opens on a bearish price gap measuring 0.30% and trades below all Moving Averages on all timeframes. The NASDAQ also trades below the VWAP and almost 100% of the most influential components (stocks) are declining in value.     The next significant support level is at $18,313, and the resistance level stands at $20,367.95. Key Takeaway Points: NASDAQ falls to its lowest since September 2024 as the US confirms tariffs on all countries, adding to inflation concerns. Core PCE inflation rises to 0.4% MoM and 2.8% YoY, increasing the likelihood of prolonged high interest rates. Investor risk appetite drops as VIX jumps 6%, gold gains 1.3%, and safe-haven assets outperform. NASDAQ shows strong bearish momentum, trading below key technical levels with support at $18,313 and resistance at $20,367.95. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • PM Philip Morris stock, top of range breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?PM
    • EXC Exelon stock, nice range breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?EXC
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.