Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

cowcool

How to Spot the Beginning of a Trending Day?

Recommended Posts

You only need two charts and three indicators to do what you want to do. Forget market profile.

 

The first indicator and chart, really, is a 5 minute of $TICK. If you're not aware of $TICK it's a market internal that you'll have to add to your software as a symbol manually. When TICK is trading above the mean (0), more stocks are trading at their offer price than their bid. That means the market can't find enough buyers. In other words a train. The opposite is true if below the mean. It's a mess to look at, though, and even more challenging to interpret, especially when concentrating on set-ups. That's why you put a 10 period or higher volume weighted moving average orover it and bold the line so all you have to do is glance at it.

 

Next you need a 30 minute chart with only a 20 period exponential moving average on it.

 

When TICK is trading above the mean consistently, buy the pullbacks to the 20 ema on the 30 minute chart, but only when the moving average's move confirms other signals. If below the mean in TICK, fade the rallies.

 

If you're ever unsure in sideways action or think you could be had in a fade, only buy or sell after action moves 4% above the prior session's close to the upside or below the low in a bear. To minimalize risk even further, enter after a 2% retrace testing the validity of the breakout. What you're doing then is using people's money who are stuck on the wrong side of the market fueling a thrust.

 

That right there took me years. You should appreciate it and use it.

Edited by Xuanxue

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

higher high's and higher lows = uptrend

lower high's and lower low's = downtrend

 

Just look at a good time frame chart for you and see which of these patterns is taking place

Also if you want to use internals look for the same series of hh's or lh's in something like the NYSE advancers..

Edited by stanlyd

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"How to spot the beginning of a Trending Day?"

 

While this is written for the emini S&P the same principles apply to most other markets.

 

Before the open:

 

Night Session trade is mostly done by professional traders which gives us a very good idea of professional sentiment in world equity markets.

 

Night session trade in this contract currently averages around 250k contracts. The first clue of a trending day is above average trade - 300k or more.

 

If price trended during the night session on an above averge trade this is your second pre-open clue of a trending day.

 

If the difference between UpVolume and DnVolume is more than 15k contracts during the night session this is your third pre-open clue of a trending day.

 

Of note is that over the long term over half the time one extreme of the 24 hour session is made during the night session.

 

The open:

 

Again over a fairly high percentage of the days the open is near (20% of the day's range) one extreme or the other. On days where price passes through the open more than a few times during the first hour trend days are unlikely.

 

On the other hand on days where the three pre-opening conditions mentioned above are in effect and price departs decisively from the open during the 15-30 minutes of trade you have a faily good indication that the open has established one extreme and that trend trading away from the open will establish the other.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
You only need two charts and three indicators to do what you want to do. Forget market profile.

 

The first indicator and chart, really, is a 5 minute of $TICK. If you're not aware of $TICK it's a market internal that you'll have to add to your software as a symbol manually. When TICK is trading above the mean (0), more stocks are trading at their offer price than their bid. That means the market can't find enough buyers. In other words a train. The opposite is true if below the mean. It's a mess to look at, though, and even more challenging to interpret, especially when concentrating on set-ups. That's why you put a 10 period or higher volume weighted moving average orover it and bold the line so all you have to do is glance at it.

 

Next you need a 30 minute chart with only a 20 period exponential moving average on it.

 

When TICK is trading above the mean consistently, buy the pullbacks to the 20 ema on the 30 minute chart, but only when the moving average's move confirms other signals. If below the mean in TICK, fade the rallies.

 

If you're ever unsure in sideways action or think you could be had in a fade, only buy or sell after action moves 4% above the prior session's close to the upside or below the low in a bear. To minimalize risk even further, enter after a 2% retrace testing the validity of the breakout. What you're doing then is using people's money who are stuck on the wrong side of the market fueling a thrust.

 

That right there took me years. You should appreciate it and use it.

 

Thanks for your post.

It would be much easier to comprehend if you post 2 charts with 3indicator and annotations explaining your original posts. I understand its time consuming, considering the time you have already spent the charts would surely complement your original post.

 

Best regards

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for your post.

 

Night Session trade is mostly done by professional traders which gives us a very good idea of professional sentiment in world equity markets.

 

Your implying its mostly institutional trading durring the night session?

 

If the difference between UpVolume and DnVolume is more than 15k contracts during the night session this is your third pre-open clue of a trending day.

 

Why 15K volume as the arbiter?

Is there some logic behind the 15k ?....Would you expand on this.

 

 

 

Best Regards

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Again over a fairly high percentage of the days the open is near (20% of the day's range) one extreme or the other. On days where price passes through the open more than a few times during the first hour trend days are unlikely.

 

Thanks for this data, UrmaBlume, but that statement in parenthesis is confusing. 20% of the day's range is during the open? Is that it?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thanks for this data, UrmaBlume, but that statement in parenthesis is confusing. 20% of the day's range is during the open? Is that it?

 

He means opening in the top/bottom 20% of the day's range.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thanks for your post.

Your implying its mostly institutional trading durring the night session?

 

Why 15K volume as the arbiter?

Is there some logic behind the 15k ?....Would you expand on this.

 

 

I am not implynig, I am making a statement born of experience that most trade during the nite session is done by commercial traders, many outside the US. Also much of this trade is to either hedge or speculate on equity indexes other than the S&P.

 

As to the 15k, this number is not an arbiter but rather a zone of interest. The precise over and under here is a matter for each trader to reasearch- I also didn't mention what method I used to differ UpVol from DnVol - I gave the hint - you should do at least some of the work yourself. Simple research will allow you to either verify my number or come up with a better one.

 

The point here is that there is valuable information available from night session trade and that of that information, most important is the size and balance of trade during that period.

 

cheers

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The word professional is used by some to mean only institutional traders and by other to include all traders that are consistantly profitable (including retail traders).

 

When you think with the above context as possibility, then you will understand why I used the word "implying" "your implying its mostly institutionlal trading durring the night session". The point is I dont know you or what your definition of professional trader is. Now I do know what your implied meaning by the use of the word "professional" because in your response you used the term Commercial instead of Professional.

 

If I decide to ask questions then I ask detailed questions else its a not useful for me.

 

 

Regards.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 22nd January 2025.   Netflix Earnings Surge Driving the NASDAQ to Monthly Highs!   The NASDAQ increases in value for a fourth consecutive day, gaining momentum after Netflix stocks rise more than 15%. Earnings reports are gaining speed for the technology sector, but why has Netflix stocks seen such a high and sudden rise in demand? Netflix Stocks Increase 15% Supporting the NASDAQ! Netflix stocks have been one of the best-performing stocks within the NASDAQ, rising more than 79% in 12 months. However, even for Netflix, a 15% rise in less than 24 hours is considered substantial. The quarterly earnings report was made public by Netflix after the market closed on Tuesday. The earnings report confirmed the following: Netflix beat their earnings per share expectations - $4.27 reported vs $4.21 expectations. Netflix’s revenue surpasses the previous quarter - $10.25 billion this quarter vs $9.82 billion in the previous quarter. The online streaming company confirms projects to expand into live sport and event streaming will proceed. In addition to this, the company’s forward guidance for 2025 remains positive. Netflix is the 10th most influential company for the NASDAQ meaning the positive earnings data and bullish price movement supports the overall price of the NASDAQ. In addition to this, the positive earnings improve the sentiment towards the entire US technology sector. Investors will now turn their attention to the quarterly earnings report for Intuitive Surgical. Intuitive Surgical stocks on Tuesday rose 1.94%. How is the Economy And Politics Affecting the NASDAQ?     The US stock market is witnessing an upward correction after struggling in the last weeks of 2024. The bullish price movement is a result of a sharp decline in bond yields, the new US administration and earnings season. Investors remain relieved that bond yields have fallen back down from the 5.00% level. If bond yields continue to decline further, particularly below 4.50%, the move would be deemed as positive for the US stock market. President Trump took office on Monday and so far the pro-US rhetoric from the President, Vice President and Secretary of State continues to support the stock market. So far, the main concern is how upcoming tariffs can negatively affect inflation and growth. However, some economists advise tariffs will become the “norm” and may have a lesser effect compared to 2018. However, this is something traders will continue to evaluate and monitor. The VIX this morning fell 0.83% lower and trades more than 5.70% lower over a 7-days. The lower VIX indicates a higher risk appetite towards the stock market. If the VIX continues to decline a strong buy indication may materialize. On the most influential stocks for the NASDAQ, 82% rose in value on Tuesday. However, Apple stocks, the most impactful stock, fell 3.19% due to poor sell data. If Apple stocks continue to decline, the NASDAQ’s upward trend may come under strain. In the meantime, investors over the next week will continue to monitor upcoming earnings reports. NASDAQ - Technical Analysis The price of the index is trading significantly higher than all Moving Averages on a 2-hour timeframe and relatively high on oscillators. These factors indicate that buyers are controlling the order book. However, price action also confirms the latest impulse wave measures 3.43% which is normally the point at which the index retraces. This is something that investors may also consider. The retracement potentially also may be triggered by Netflix buyers quickly selling to cash in profit after the sudden 15% bullish surge. If a retracement does indeed form, price action and the 75-period EMA indicates that the pullback may drop as low as $21,391.30.     Key Takeaways: The NASDAQ increases in value for a fourth consecutive day, but price action signals a possible retracement before continuing its bullish trend. Netflix stocks increase more than 15% due to strong earnings data. Netflix beat earnings and revenue expectations by 1.39% and confirmed projects to add live sports streaming to its platforms. The VIX trades more than 5.70% lower over a 7-days and US Bond Yields remain at recent lows. On the most influential stocks for the NASDAQ, 82% rose in value on Tuesday. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • DASH DoorDash stock, watch for a top of range breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?DASH
    • SYF Synchrony Financial stock with a top of range breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?SYF
    • RKLB Rocket Labstock, big rally off support and breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?RKLB
    • RDW Redwire stock, what a launch off the 14.16 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?RDW
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.