ES Outlook

[Xuanxue 10]

A few things I want to mention is that before breaking down from the high twenties in ES we were working on completing the fifth cycle of 54.75 points from 665.75. 4.82% completed as a matter of fact. So we know it's a fourth wave motive ABC. We completed half of the bear's covering cycle to the tick from before close at 53 points. But where it gets interesting is how investors are acting around these range pivots. I know many here use RTH, so our numbers don't exactly match but relate. I like looking at 24 hours data timing swings. Anyway, I'll reference RTH numbers. 916.50 turned the bull obviously. Sellers really liked 895, and 889 (884) where the fourth cycle completed, is I fear losing ground to maintain completing its fifth. There was a lot of money lost trying to buy this pullback at every range and implied range. I maintain that if buyers don't fight hard and win 884/9, there's more chance of making a new low and finding a bottom than there is of bulls completing five cycles. Here's why I think so: The nastiest bear market since the Great Depression is running on a cycle of 310.75 points, is 2.96% completed trying to complete its third cycle, and a third would finish at 654.50. As far as the most recent high of 929.50, a full cycle would complete at 823. VWAP in my 240 minute is as of close today 825. No coincidence I don't think. Also, my VIX 5 minute looks like it found a bottom and re-gained its volatility before the breakdown. I'm using VIX contrarian and saved me an aweful lot of money this week.

 

Any observations, additions or corrections as always welcomed.