Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

brownsfan019

A Look at a Stock Trader's Day

Recommended Posts

I'll be out until noon or so, today.

 

Also, I failed to post a follow up of TLM - I bought the July 15 calls for $1.25

I will look to sell half for 2.50 and hold half until expiration or or a breakdown in price action.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I did not see this until after the fact, but MA's price action had a nice long trade opportunity with a BUY POINT BETWEEN 173.97-174.01.

 

The pattern doesn't guarantee a profitable trade, but it puts the odds of such on your side. So far MA has resisted the weakness in the general market, though that could change quickly.

 

This is a nice pattern to watch for no matter the time frame - 5 minute, daily, weekly, even monthly.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

5aa70ee45a3aa_6-10-2009MA1.jpg.e9a2819ff60927072bd8c8adbca9ad37.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I did not see this until after the fact, but MA's price action had a nice long trade opportunity with a BUY POINT BETWEEN 173.97-174.01.

 

The pattern doesn't guarantee a profitable trade, but it puts the odds of such on your side. So far MA has resisted the weakness in the general market, though that could change quickly.

 

This is a nice pattern to watch for no matter the time frame - 5 minute, daily, weekly, even monthly.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Here is BLK, same pattern as MA but flipped upside down for a short sale. I did not see this until after the fact, and I did not take this trade.

5aa70ee461400_6-10-2009BLK1.jpg.4e8346bce3992ee8cf28341340e189fd.jpg

Edited by thalestrader

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Two trades today - both great trades, but both were losing efforts.

 

I am not one to post-mortem losing trades. I do flip through 600 charts each night (the 5 minute chart of each issue in the SP500 and the daily chart of each IBD 100 stock). I do review each day's trades. I print each chart, place it in a three ring binder, and flip through these charts from time to time. However, I feel that there is no need, in most cases, to autopsy my losing efforts.

 

 

Thalestrader -

I am trying to understand and learn your methods and I wondered what different things you do when reviewing trades from the day or go through all the charts you mentioned above. Do you simply go through charts that have patterns you would have traded had you seen them and determine if it would have turned out profitable? Just curious what review process you use and think is useful in increasing your win to loss ratio.

Thanks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thalestrader -

I am trying to understand and learn your methods and I wondered what different things you do when reviewing trades from the day or go through all the charts you mentioned above. Do you simply go through charts that have patterns you would have traded had you seen them and determine if it would have turned out profitable? Just curious what review process you use and think is useful in increasing your win to loss ratio.

Thanks.

 

 

Every night I

 

1) I scroll through the S & P 500 5 minute and daily charts using freestockcharts.com and Telechart (Worden Bros) software.

 

2) I scroll through the IBD 100 stock list using Telechart

 

3) I print out the 5 minute chart of each stock traded that day, and put the chart in a 3 ring binder (I have quite a few binders filled with charts).

 

4) I flip through the pages of one of the binders just to keep familiarizing myself with the patterns.

 

I am not concerned with my win/loss ratio. I focus on R/R ratio (my average profitable trade/average losing trade).

 

I scroll and flip through the charts to sharpen my pattern recognition skills.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Does slippage become an issue for many of your trades. Since you are essentially scapling small profits from these stock moves, you must be trading quite a few shares to make it worth while. Where do you think someone trading like you starts to run into slippage problems - trading $20,000 per trade, $30,000, $40,000? I am still trying to get a hold of Don Bright's writing on the trading for profit and not percentage stuff but I did find your post about it.

 

Also, what setups do you look for on the ES? Your stock trading method with highs and lows doesn't seem to transfer over to the ES in my mind.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Does slippage become an issue for many of your trades. Since you are essentially scapling small profits from these stock moves, you must be trading quite a few shares to make it worth while. Where do you think someone trading like you starts to run into slippage problems - trading $20,000 per trade, $30,000, $40,000? I am still trying to get a hold of Don Bright's writing on the trading for profit and not percentage stuff but I did find your post about it.

 

Also, what setups do you look for on the ES? Your stock trading method with highs and lows doesn't seem to transfer over to the ES in my mind.

 

 

Slippage has not been a problem. If negative slip occurs, it is usually not more than a penny or two, though on some of the higher price stocks with less volume, e.g. MA, CME, I may at times get clipped for as much as quarter. For example, I did trade MA today and while my stop would have allowed for a 30 penny profit, my actual profit given my fill was only 17 pennies.

 

Those small scalps do add up quickly. For the week, I am up over $2/share traded. If you are a 1500 lot trader, that's 3k. If you are a 200 lot trader that's $400.

 

The trades I have posted here are actual trades, with actual entry stops and stop losses. Most of the time I am filled at my price.

 

I trade the ES infrequently and I do trade it differently than I trade stocks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
And here is the WU chart identifying entry, initial stop, trailing stops, and exit

 

At first glance the risk/reward looks way off on that initial stop. But to clarify...the runners take care of the rest correct? A few runners could make your month if your trailing stop method lets you milk the bulk of the big moves.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
At first glance the risk/reward looks way off on that initial stop. But to clarify...the runners take care of the rest correct? A few runners could make your month if your trailing stop method lets you milk the bulk of the big moves.

 

Most of my trades are for small lossess and small gains. Inital stop on that trade was less than 25 cents, if I recall correctly. Few of my trades are stopped out at that inital stop loss, but I always have the stop go into the market with the entry order in case of an emergency.

 

Yes, the few runers more than take care of the small wins and losses.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Does slippage become an issue for many of your trades.

 

Two stock trades this morning - sorry for the late post, as these charts are after the fact and not at all real time, so I am posting here in the stock trader's thread instead of the real time chart reading thread.

 

imorgan had asked about slippage. Today, my buy stop for GENZ was 54.59, my fill was 54.64. That is about as bad as it typically gets, and it doesn't get that wide often.

 

My sell stop for CNX was 33.31, and I was filled at 33.31 on the penny. This has been my experience on most of my trades, especially if there is sufficient liquidity and the market on the stock is not all that "fast."

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

5aa70eea67b7a_6-17-2009CNXShort33and311.jpg.5ce04c67a7e23398882db0ec95df4669.jpg

5aa70eea6c4be_6-17-2009GENZlong54and641.jpg.7276fd6180f23f96da33a071f6c9c50f.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Do you pay attention to the futures price action closely when placing your trades?

 

I watch the ES but not constantly nor closely unless I see a real strong trade opportunity setting up, and then only if I am not already in several stock trades. I keep the cash DOW and Nasdaq COMP quote in my trading window. I monitor the market, but I do not decide to tkae a trade based upon the general market.

 

I will not let a weak general market keep me from taking a long trade.

 

I not allow a strong general market to keep me from a particular short trade.

 

I do watch the IBD 100, which by definition, are the real market leaders. As goes the IBD 100, then typically, so goes the general market.

 

Also, when IBD Big Picture says the market is in a confirmed rally, I find that the majority of my trades are long trades.

 

When the IBD Big Picture says rally under pressure, my trades tend to be more balanced between long and short.

 

And when IBD Big Picture says market is in correction (i.e. bear swing) the majority of my trades tend to be short.

 

This is not because IBD says so, i.e. I do not make a conscious decision to focus on long trades, or a mix long and short, or short trades because of what IBD says. But, it does happen that that is how my trades fall, and IBD has a very accurate way of determining the immediate character of the market.

 

If you have been tracking my trades since I've been posting here, you will see that for a while, most if not all of my trades were long, and most were profitable. I was on a real run.

 

Then, about two weeks ago, I was still taking mosty long trades, but my results were not as strong - more losers than during the positive run, and few larger profits. I started to add some more short trades.

 

Right now, I am about 50/50 long and short.

 

If the downside picks up momentum, then I will likely shift to almost all short trades (as I was doing almost October 2008 until about 2/3'rds of the way through March.

 

In other words, in my opinion, what the market is doing today or on any particular day is not nearly as important as what the intermediate (weeks to months) trend in the market is doing. If the market is in bull swing, then even on a down day I will find some strong long trades.

 

If the market is in a bear swing, then even on a strong up day, my best trades will still likely be short trades.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
You conjecture that such confidence comes from much practice drawing trendlines and determining if you were right.

 

But how will you judge whether you were correct or not?

 

The implication is that upon having drawn a trendline or otherwise having identified a support or resistance level, you would then paper trade around that information. If that trade would have been profitable, you would then conclude that you drew that line correctly. Conversely, if that trade would have lost, you would conclude that you did not draw that trendline properly. You would learn nothing of value from such an excercise. After all, trading based upon support and resistance is not a holy grail that will assure only profitable trades.

 

For example, here is a trendline drawn on a 5 minute chart of BP. Buy point was 47.11-.15 depending upon slippage (I was filled at .12 with a .11 buy stop). You can see here that price has broken above the trendline, and has now returned for a retest.

 

I do not know if price will then continue higher, and if so, by how much. I am long at 47.12 with a stop loss at 46.96. If price trades above 47.18, which was the high before the throwback, then my stop loss will be raised to a penny beow the low of this throwback. If price does not continue higher and instead reverses lower, I have my stop loss.

 

The correctnes of that trendline does not depend upon the outcome of this trade.

 

Win or lose, this is an excellent trade.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

5aa70ef0bf773_6-25-2009BPTrendlinewithThrowback1.thumb.jpg.fcdf9e59f1852dcf17a6ca64b6813750.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And here is why you always trade with a stop loss in the market: I was long LM from soon after the open, and at one point I was up nearly 2 dollars (about a 1.70 or so). My stop loss was just beneath a recent pulback low, when the bottom fell out of the stock. My 1.70 profit was reduced to a mere 36 pennies when I got filled on my stop loss.

 

Now, the question is, do I short it using a sell stop at 23.85, or do I let it be?

5aa70ef0c9f3d_6-25-2009LM1.thumb.jpg.f1154a279b5fe7102b399b00b2c83fb2.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 7th April 2025.   Asian Markets Plunge as US-China Trade War Escalates; Wall Street Futures Signal Further Turmoil.   Global financial markets extended last week’s massive sell-off as tensions between the US and its major trading partners deepened, rattling investors and prompting sharp declines across equities, commodities, and currencies. The fallout from President Trump’s sweeping new tariff measures continued to spread, raising fears of a full-blown trade war and economic recession.   Asian stock markets plunged on Monday, extending a global market rout fueled by rising tensions between the US and China. The latest wave of aggressive tariffs and retaliatory measures has unnerved investors worldwide, triggering sharp sell-offs across the Asia-Pacific region.   Asian equities led the global rout on Monday, with dramatic losses seen across the region. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index tumbled more than 8% shortly after the open, while the broader Topix fell over 6.5%, recovering only slightly from steeper losses. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite sank 6.7%, and the blue-chip CSI300 dropped 7.5% as markets reopened following a public holiday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index opened more than 9% lower, reflecting deep concerns about escalating trade tensions.           South Korea’s Kospi dropped 4.8%, triggering a circuit breaker designed to curb panic selling. Taiwan’s Taiex index collapsed by nearly 10%, with major tech exporters like TSMC and Foxconn hitting circuit breaker limits after each fell close to 10%. Meanwhile, Australia’s ASX 200 shed as much as 6.3%, and New Zealand’s NZX 50 lost over 3.5%.   Despite the escalation, Beijing has adopted a measured tone. Chinese officials urged investors not to panic and assured markets that the country has the tools to mitigate economic shocks. At the same time, they left the door open for renewed trade talks, though no specific timeline has been set.   US Stock Futures Plunge Ahead of Monday Open   US stock futures pointed to another brutal day on Wall Street. Futures tied to the S&P 500 dropped over 3%, Nasdaq futures sank 4%, and Dow Jones futures lost 2.5%—equivalent to nearly 1,000 points. The Nasdaq Composite officially entered a bear market on Friday, down more than 20% from its recent highs, while the S&P 500 is nearing bear territory. The Dow closed last week in correction. Oil prices followed suit, with WTI crude dropping over 4% to $59.49 per barrel—its lowest since April 2021.   Wall Street closed last week in disarray, erasing more than $5 trillion in value amid fears of an all-out trade war. The Nasdaq Composite officially entered a bear market on Friday, sinking more than 20% from its recent peak. The S&P 500 is approaching bear territory, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has slipped firmly into correction territory.   German Banks Hit Hard Amid Escalating Trade Tensions   German banking stocks were among the worst hit in Europe. Shares of Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank plunged between 9.5% and 10.3% during early Frankfurt trading, compounding Friday’s steep losses. Fears over a global trade war and looming recession are severely impacting the financial sector, particularly export-driven economies like Germany.   Eurozone Growth at Risk   Eurozone officials are bracing for economic fallout, with Greek central bank governor Yannis Stournaras warning that Trump’s tariff policy could reduce eurozone GDP by up to 1%. The EU is preparing retaliatory tariffs on $28 billion worth of American goods—ranging from steel and aluminium to consumer products like dental floss and luxury jewellery.   Starting Wednesday, the US is expected to impose 25% tariffs on key EU exports, with Brussels ready to respond with its own 20% levies on nearly all remaining American imports.   UK Faces £22 Billion Economic Blow   In the UK, fresh research from KPMG revealed that the British economy could shrink by £21.6 billion by 2027 due to US-imposed tariffs. The analysis points to a 0.8% dip in economic output over the next two years, undermining Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ growth agenda. The report also warned of additional fiscal pressure that may lead to future tax increases and public spending cuts.   Wall Street Braces for Recession   Goldman Sachs revised its US recession probability to 45% within the next year, citing tighter financial conditions and rising policy uncertainty. This marks a sharp jump from the 35% risk estimated just last month—and more than double January’s 20% projection. J.P. Morgan issued a bleaker outlook, now forecasting a 60% chance of recession both in the US and globally.   Global Leaders Respond as Trade Tensions Deepen   The dramatic market sell-off was triggered by China’s sweeping retaliation to a new round of US tariffs, which included a 34% levy on all American imports. Beijing’s state-run People’s Daily released a defiant statement, asserting that China has the tools and resilience to withstand economic pressure from Washington. ‘We’ve built up experience after years of trade conflict and are prepared with a full arsenal of countermeasures,’ it stated.   Around the world, policymakers are responding to the growing threat of a trade-led economic slowdown. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced plans to appeal directly to Washington and push for tariff relief, following the US administration’s decision to impose a blanket 24% tariff on Japanese imports. He aims to visit the US soon to present Japan’s case as a fair trade partner.   In Taiwan, President Lai Ching-te said his administration would work closely with Washington to remove trade barriers and increase purchases of American goods in an effort to reduce the bilateral trade deficit. The island's defence ministry has also submitted a new list of US military procurements to highlight its strategic partnership.   Economists and strategists are warning of deeper economic consequences. Ronald Temple, chief market strategist at Lazard, said the scale and speed of these tariffs could result in far more severe damage than previously anticipated. ‘This isn’t just a bilateral conflict anymore — more countries are likely to respond in the coming weeks,’ he noted.   Analysts at Barclays cautioned that smaller Asian economies, such as Singapore and South Korea, may face challenges in negotiating with Washington and are already adjusting their economic growth forecasts downward in response to the unfolding trade crisis.           Oil Prices Sink on Demand Concerns   Crude oil continued its sharp slide on Monday, driven by recession fears and weakened global demand. Brent fell 3.9% to $63.04 a barrel, while WTI plunged over 4% to $59.49—both benchmarks marking weekly losses exceeding 10%. Analysts say inflationary pressures and slowing economic activity may drag demand down, even though energy imports were excluded from the latest round of tariffs.   Vandana Hari of Vanda Insights noted, ‘The market is struggling to find a bottom. Until there’s a clear signal from Trump that calms recession fears, crude prices will remain under pressure.’   OPEC+ Adds Further Pressure with Output Hike   Bearish sentiment intensified after OPEC+ announced it would boost production by 411,000 barrels per day in May, far surpassing the expected 135,000 bpd. The alliance called on overproducing nations to submit compensation plans by April 15. Analysts fear this surprise move could undo years of supply discipline and weigh further on already fragile oil markets.   Global political risks also flared over the weekend. Iran rejected US proposals for direct nuclear negotiations and warned of potential military action. Meanwhile, Russia claimed fresh territorial gains in Ukraine’s Sumy region and ramped up attacks on surrounding areas—further darkening the outlook for markets.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • AMZN Amazon stock watch, good buying (+313%) toi hold onto the 173.32 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?AMZN
    • META stock watch, local support and resistance areas at 507.48, 557.84 at https://stockconsultant.com/?META
    • TMUS T-Mobile stock, watch for a top of range breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?TMUS
    • KULR KULR Technology stock watch, pullback to 1.25 triple support area with bullish indicators at https://stockconsultant.com/?KULR
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.