Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Recommended Posts

Day 33

July 1, 2009

 

No trades today.

 

While I did not trade the Watts System today, I have an automated system that took a nice profit in YM as it anticipated a up move in the overnight session. I was pleased with that. Furthermore, there was a lot of stuff that I needed to get done around the home office. So I spent my morning taking care of non-trading obligations. I'm also debating about trading tomorrow morning since it's just before the long holiday weekend. I guess I'll know if i should be trading or not when I see the price action in the morning.

 

Looking forward to reviewing my first full month of trading the Watts System.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Attached are my statistics for trading the EC from May 27, 2009 to June 29, 2009. In short, I managed to keep my head above water. However, my performance has been horrible. Most notably, 1) not taking signals 2) and in a more general sense, not following my plan. While I think I'm narrowing down "when" or "when not" to trade I still often hesitate to act. Furthermore, I need to only take signals that I'm trained to take which at this time are trend continuation patterns. I have yet to practice or fully define the entry and execution of trend reversals patters. Thus, I should not attempt those, yet.

 

Here come the gory details...

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=11992&stc=1&d=1246989127

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=11991&stc=1&d=1246989127

 

So, sticking to my plan and execution without hesitation appear to be my biggest flaws. My risk management seems to prevent me from pole-axing my account into oblivion. In fact, I'm making money. Just imagine if I could trade well! The money will just pour into my account. heheh, :cool:

 

To fix my deficiencies I will start to record each trade via screen capture software. I actually think recording my trading process while talking out loud about my setups and what I'm observing with the price action will help in my performance. I will need to add this to my trading plan. These videos will also provide a great library of failed and well executed trades.

 

Onward I march.

5aa70ef944c3b_EquityCurveJune.png.f5af9a72065c021dd5b16d5744bad408.png

5aa70ef94862d_TradingSummaryJune.png.2d66765cf12b195bab2c3888c71f2a6d.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Day 36

July 7, 2009

 

Two Trades. Two Losers.

 

Today I traded like a complete fool. I watched an entire uptrend and did not take any signals until the very end and was stopped out - twice! Granted I was distracted with other non-trading obligations I know better. This is exactly what I'm talking about in my review from yesterday. You may be asking why I did not video record my trade. Well, yesterdays post about my review occurred after today's stupid trades. I've been slow at getting these updates out. Wednesday will be the day I start recording what I do.

 

Today typified all that is wrong. The market was throwing money my direction, but I was to frightened to grab it. When I did grab it, my hand was bitten.

 

P&L: ($150)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Day 37

July 8, 2009

 

One trade. One winner.

 

Today's, action was much more choppy as apposed to yesterdays trending market. I was getting conflicting signals on my timeframes and thus, I was cautious. I did record several videos but the bulk of them never materialized into a trade. But I did manage to capture one quick scalp before my session was over. I won't bore you with the video but you can find a screenshot below. The price just moved below the fast SMA and I took the first valid signal. Very clean entry and the market moved quickly to my target.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=12035&stc=1&d=1247100909

 

I recorded my trade today. Is it no wonder my trade was a winner? ;)

P&L: $100

Live_Trade_2009-07-08.thumb.png.9ca0ededfdffe0d0857a0c615043b453.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Day 38

July 9, 2009

 

Another day of no trades. I've been distracted this week with non-trading obligations and it's really showing. This should last just through this week so, one more day.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have enjoyed following your thread so far. I hope you are not dropping it. So after all of the work you have done trying out the Watts system what do you think of the system? Is it worth the effort?

 

One thing I wonder about is why not just program all of the rules into an automated strategy, then you would have no psychological issues to deal with. Have you tried automating?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I have enjoyed following your thread so far. I hope you are not dropping it. So after all of the work you have done trying out the Watts system what do you think of the system? Is it worth the effort?

 

One thing I wonder about is why not just program all of the rules into an automated strategy, then you would have no psychological issues to deal with. Have you tried automating?

 

Thanks for writing. I've not given up. The last few weeks I've been busy, distracted and generally unable to focus on trading. For example, I design web pages as a side job - been doing that for years. Well, I had a project that needed some work for a demo that was coming up this past weekend. During the morning I would switch between working on my web page and trading the EC. Not a good idea. After suffering three losses in a row last week during market conditions which should have been easy for me I decided I need to stop trading to clear my plate.

 

My complete and total intention is to clear my plate of non-trading obligations and get back to focusing on the markets. This will be the last web page for me as I truly wish to focus my energies on trading. It's so much better than web design. No customers is one big plus. Anyway, I'm still around and sorry for not updating. I've been so busy I really had to cut back on posting.

 

As for the Watts system, I like it. It's the only purchased system I've made money at. Is it worth the effort? I thinks so. Time will tell. For such a low cost I would recommend it to anyone who wishes to day trade. It's a small price to pay for such massive potential rewards. It may not be for everyone but you won't know unless you try. Lord knows I have trouble executing trades but that's a psychological issue that can occur with any trading system.

 

I thought about trying to code up the system as well. I made a half-baked attempt months ago but like with many profitable discretionary systems there are always elements that prove very difficult to quantify in computer code. In the end I decided I need to learn to trade. I series of tools that could highlight price bars or somehow alert me to possible setups would be more useful. I might attempt to create a tools set in the future. But in my opinion the biggest obstacle is me and if the Watts system could be coded up someone much smarter than me would have done it already.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I need help! I'm going back to my simulator for more training. Why? While it's true I'm muddling along making a little money with my live trading, I'm not happy with my inability to take every signal. The way to overcome this is to build more confidence in my trading skill and trusting with my system. So, starting Tuesday I'm going to take every valid signal without fear or hesitation on the simulator. I will track my progress as always and I hope this will demonstrate that by just following my system money will follow. By the end of the week if I feel more confident then I will revert back to trading with real money on the following week. It's important for me to accept that I can always revert back to sim trading if I feel my performance is lacking.This is not failure but simply acknowledging my weakness and attempting to fix it without losing too much cash.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I need help! I'm going back to my simulator for more training. Why? While it's true I'm muddling along making a little money with my live trading, I'm not happy with my inability to take every signal. The way to overcome this is to build more confidence in my trading skill and trusting with my system. So, starting Tuesday I'm going to take every valid signal without fear or hesitation on the simulator. I will track my progress as always and I hope this will demonstrate that by just following my system money will follow. By the end of the week if I feel more confident then I will revert back to trading with real money on the following week. It's important for me to accept that I can always revert back to sim trading if I feel my performance is lacking.This is not failure but simply acknowledging my weakness and attempting to fix it without losing too much cash.

 

Thats fine to do that but make sure you are doing it for the correct reasons.

 

For example when I was trading awhile ago I was missing valid entries and getting really p$#sed off with myself and did what you mentioned above to no avail, but when I went to search for the source of the problem I found that it was just me trying to be a perfectionist and when I realized that all I had to do was focus on the probability of the trade then everything eased up and I was trading well again.

 

I still get caught up in the perfectionist thing every now and then but I have a message next to my screen to remind me to trade with probabilities.

 

Cheers and hope this helps

 

1pipatatime

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Day 38

July 22, 2009

 

The EC market was choppy today but I did manage to squeeze a scalp in this morning. Price moved above my moving averages then came down to test a consolidation area which consisted of both the 89 sma and 50 sma. I took the first signal near these averages.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=12381&stc=1&d=1248283309

 

P&L: $100

Live_Trade_20090722.thumb.jpg.dff3cbe1e5b8fcdf2d7e51a997b6a483.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Day 39

July 23, 2009

 

One trade. One winner.

 

The EC market was still in range bound since yesterday. Attached is the video of the trade and you'll see I realize the range bound nature of the market and enter long at a valid entry on the 445-tick chart instead of my usual-89 tick in hopes of capturing a larger move. Well, it was not a huge move but it was larger than my standard scalp.

 

Here is the attached video capture of todays trade:

Live_Trading_2009-07-23_0800.swf

 

P&L: $150

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Day 40

July 24, 2009

 

One trade. One winner.

 

The EC market broke it's multi-day range to the downside overnight. But it was a fake as it strongly reversed upwards. I awoke and did a quick scalp before calling it a day. I'm off work today and was not even going to trade. But I gave it an hour and a nice pullback on the 445 tick chart allowed me to enter long.

 

Below is the attached video of today's trade:

 

Live_Trade_2009-07-24_0605.swf

 

Below is the screen shot of today's trade. Notice my entry signal is on my larger timeframe (445 tick).

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=12419&stc=1&d=1248436650

 

P&L: $100

Live_Trade_2009-07-24_0636.thumb.png.b88a85823c70daef2fa97d75ad1df91b.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thought I might join you.

 

Only took one trade on the Euro today. Shorted a gravestone after a 50% retrace. Took 5 ticks on one contract and one tick on the other. Not great, but that entry did not offer a lot more.

Euro270709.thumb.jpg.039dfa665a977bf954f1c0089bfe0ba3.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What software needs to be downloaded to run these video files with .swf extension. I click on them but my computer tells me I don't have the proper player software to run them. Please tell me what site I need to visit to find the software download. Thanks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
What software needs to be downloaded to run these video files with .swf extension. I click on them but my computer tells me I don't have the proper player software to run them. Please tell me what site I need to visit to find the software download. Thanks.

 

It's an Adobe's Flash file. If you have this application installed on your browser you can simply download the file to you computer, open a new browser window and select file->open. At least that's how I can get it to play. It works well with firefox.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Awesome thread swansjr!!! Very rarely do we see anyone "show their cards" in so much detail and back it up with proof in videos/pictures, etc.

 

Keep it up!!!

 

Well thanks much. Happy to hear you are enjoying the thread.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've been getting sloppy with my trading discipline. It all started with the fading volatility over the summer. The EC market was just not trending much in the early morning. Then the kids are home which means, early morning soccer practice which distracts me from my screen time. I then got lazy about posting here at TL. Then lazy about practicing my trading on historical data. Next was laziness about video recording my trades…and so on…

 

Well, time to get back on the horse. I need to bring back my focus and discipline.

 

I've not been trading over the past few weeks since I don't feel confident. I'll first need to practice on historical data and reviewing my setups. During this hiatus from day trading I've also been reading "Reading Price Charts Bar by Bar" by Al Brooks. It's a difficult read but full of great information. It's defiantly not a book for beginners however, if you are interested in day trading I would recommend it. I've not completed the book and Al recommends to only study small chucks of his work at a time. Take it slow, in other words. What's interesting are some of the price patterns he points out on the ES market (which is his primary market to trade) can also be seen on my EC charts. This is of no surprise but it is my hope that a merger of these two trading styles may be of help to me.

 

At times the Watts system gives me too much info. There are many indicators on the screen and I find I'm looking at two or three time frames. This causes second guessing of signals. Brook's strictly uses one time frame and identifies excellent patterns based largely on trend lines. Again, my hope is I can simplify my trading by using a handful of Brook's concepts in addition to a single EC chart with the Watts signals. Brooks price action explains a lot more of what I'm seeing and as potential Brook's patterns play out, Watts create wonderful entry signals. In a very crude summary this is how I picture it: Watts nails down great entries while Brooks paints a bigger picture, locates key trading points and explains the "why". At least, that's how it looks now in hindsight.

 

To some it may sound like I'm still looking for the holy grail. I'm not. I'm simply finding out what works for me. Anyway, I'm still alive and working hard to become a successful discretionary trader.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Day 41

September 3, 2009

 

Three trades. Two winners. One Loser.

 

Today I decided to jump back in as it appeared opportunity was before me. Now, it's been weeks since I traded and to be honest, by confidence has been bruised. Anyone, who has followed this thread, knows I've had difficult time pulling the trigger. I've spent the last few weeks casually reviewing my setups and watching the market.

 

My first trade I actually tightened my target to only 5 ticks. I did this purely for psychological reasons. I felt it was important for me to have a "win" more than anything. I then proceeded to take another trade with my full target. It was hit within seconds. My final trade was stopped out, by two ticks. Then the market rolled over. Seen that before. Not a problem.

 

I can happily state my three trades were all in the correct direction (short) and all were good trades. Overall I'm very happy. I was able to determine the trend and find my points of entry. I scalped all trades and was not focusing on runners. I still can do it. I feel really good about today.

 

 

P&L: $62

Edited by swansjr
Wrong Date

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I want to thank you for a great thread. I am a struggling trader and your videos are a huge help. I hope this starts a trend of people using video in their threads. I don't know if it is difficult to use video, but it sure is great! I was wondering if you could do another one or two videos of your setup and rules to take a trade. I went through all of your videos and one explained your basic setup and it seemed so simple. But, then future videos showed you passing on some tdes and then taking others. So then I became confused as to what you were using for your entry trigger. I hope this is not too much to ask? I also hope you will keep this thread going, it has really been great to see a method illustrated thru voice and video. Thank you!;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Day 42

September 8, 2009

 

Three trades. One winner. One loser. One break even.

 

Today I was taking long positions off my 445 time frame and was able to scape by with a small gain. It seems I was trading long near the top of a great bull trend that was taking place all morning. I know I've been sloppy with recording my trades and will work on that this week.

 

 

P&L: $44

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I want to thank you for a great thread. I am a struggling trader and your videos are a huge help. I hope this starts a trend of people using video in their threads. I don't know if it is difficult to use video, but it sure is great! I was wondering if you could do another one or two videos of your setup and rules to take a trade. I went through all of your videos and one explained your basic setup and it seemed so simple. But, then future videos showed you passing on some tdes and then taking others. So then I became confused as to what you were using for your entry trigger. I hope this is not too much to ask? I also hope you will keep this thread going, it has really been great to see a method illustrated thru voice and video. Thank you!;)

 

You are most welcome. I'm really pleased to hear you are gaining something from this thread. The basic setup is rather simple. But I found, at least during the summer months, that it was not always a great way to enter a trade. With the choppy summer action I found by combining my higher timeframe with my lowest timeframe I could pin point high probability entries. This may be unnecessary if EC starts to move this fall.

 

I should be more diligent in recording my live trades and I should make videos describing my setups exactly how they exist today. Creating videos has helped me explain, refine and solidify my own trading rules. Thus, they seem to be a win-win between me and those reading this thread.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • TDUP ThredUp stock, watch for a top of range breakout above 2.94 at https://stockconsultant.com/?TDUP
    • NFLX Netflix stock watch, local support and resistance areas at 838.12 and 880.5 at https://stockconsultant.com/?NFLX
    • Date: 8th April 2025.   Markets Rebound Cautiously as US-China Tariff Tensions Deepen     Global markets staged a tentative recovery on Tuesday following a wave of volatility sparked by escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. The Asia-Pacific region showed signs of stability after a chaotic start to the week—though some pockets remained under pressure. Taiwan’s Taiex dropped 4.4%, dragged lower by losses in tech heavyweight TSMC. The world’s largest chipmaker fell another 4% on Tuesday and has now slumped 13.5% since April 2, when US President Donald Trump first unveiled what he called ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs.   However, broader sentiment across the region turned more positive, with several markets rebounding sharply after Monday’s dramatic sell-offs. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged over 6% in early trading, rebounding from an 18-month low. South Korea’s Kospi rose marginally, and Australia’s ASX 200 gained 1.9%, driven by strength in mining stocks. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.6%, though still far from recovering from Monday’s 13.2% crash—its worst day since the 1997 Asian financial crisis. China’s Shanghai Composite added 0.9%.   In Europe, DAX and FTSE 100 are up more than 1% in opening trade. EU Commission President von der Leyen repeated yesterday that the EU had offered reciprocal zero tariffs on manufactured goods previously and continues to stand by that offer. Others are also trying again to talk to Trump to get some sort of agreement that limits the impact.   Much of the rally appeared to be driven by dip-buying, as well as hopes that the intensifying trade war could still be defused through negotiations.   China Strikes Back: ‘We Will Fight to the End’   Tensions reached a boiling point after Trump threatened to impose an additional 50% tariff on all Chinese imports unless Beijing rolled back its retaliatory measures by April 8. ‘If China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long-term trading abuses by tomorrow... the United States will impose additional tariffs on China of 50%,’ Trump declared on social media.   If implemented, the new tariffs would bring total US duties on Chinese goods to a staggering 124%, factoring in the existing 20%, the 34% recently announced, and the proposed 50%.   In response, China’s Ministry of Commerce issued a stern warning, stating: ‘The US threat to escalate tariffs is a mistake on top of a mistake... If the US insists on its own way, China will fight to the end.’ The ministry also called for equal and respectful dialogue, though signs of compromise on either side remain scarce.   Beijing acted quickly to contain a market fallout. State funds intervened to support equities, and the People’s Bank of China set the yuan fixing at its weakest level since September 2023 to boost export competitiveness. Additionally, five-year interest rate swaps in China fell to their lowest levels since 2020, indicating potential for further monetary easing.   Trump Talks Tough on EU Too   Trump’s hardline approach extended beyond China. Speaking at a press conference, he rejected the European Union’s offer to eliminate tariffs on cars and industrial goods, accusing the bloc of ‘being very bad to us.’ He insisted that Europe would need to source its energy from the US, claiming the US could ‘knock off $350 billion in one week.’   The EU, meanwhile, backed away from a proposed 50% retaliatory tariff on American whiskey, opting instead for 25% duties on selected US goods in response to Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs.     Volatile Wall Street Adds to the Drama   Wall Street experienced wild swings on Monday as investors processed the rapidly evolving trade conflict. The S&P 500 briefly fell 4.7% before rebounding 3.4%, nearly erasing its losses in what could have been its biggest one-day jump in years—if it had held. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank by as much as 1,700 points early in the day but later climbed nearly 900 points before closing 349 points lower, down 0.9%. The Nasdaq ended up 0.1%.   The brief rally was fueled by a false rumour that Trump was considering a 90-day pause on tariffs—rumours that the White House quickly labelled ‘fake news.’ The market's sharp reaction underscored how desperate investors are for any sign that tensions might ease.   Oil Markets in Focus: Goldman Sachs Revises Forecasts   Crude prices also reflected the uncertainty, with US crude briefly dipping below $60 per barrel for the first time since 2021. As of early Tuesday, Brent crude was trading at $64.72, while WTI hovered around $61.26.   Goldman Sachs, in a note dated April 7, lowered its average price forecasts for Brent and WTI through 2025 and 2026, citing mounting recession risks and the potential for higher-than-expected supply from OPEC+.       Under a base-case scenario where the US avoids a recession and tariffs are reduced significantly before the April 9 implementation date, Goldman sees Brent at $62 per barrel and WTI at $58 by December 2025. These figures fall further to $55 and $51, respectively, by the end of 2026. This outlook also assumes moderate output increases from eight OPEC+ countries, with incremental boosts of 130,000–140,000 barrels per day in June and July.   However, should the US slip into a typical recession and OPEC production aligns with the bank’s baseline assumptions, Brent could retreat to $58 by the end of this year and to $50 by December 2026.   In a more bearish scenario involving a global GDP slowdown and no change to OPEC+ output levels, Brent prices might fall to $54 by year-end and $45 by late 2026. The most extreme projection—based on a simultaneous economic downturn and a full reversal of OPEC+ production cuts—would see Brent plunge to below $40 per barrel by the end of 2026.   Goldman noted that oil prices could outperform forecasts significantly if there was a dramatic shift in tariff policy and a surprise in global demand recovery.   Cautious Optimism, But Warnings Persist   With both Washington and Beijing showing no signs of backing down, markets are likely to remain volatile in the days ahead. Investors now turn their attention to upcoming trade meetings and policy decisions, hoping for clarity in what has become one of the most unpredictable trading environments in recent years.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • CVNA Carvana stock watch, rebound to 166.56 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?CVNA
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.