Wyckoff Newsletter

[brownsfan019 17]

Hi sevensa,

 

To hopefully make this $50,000 portfolio grow as everyone follows both the winning and losing trades in real-time.

 

Rollotape

 

So much for real-time posting of trades...

 

[BlowFish 10]

So much for real-time posting of trades...

 

 

There has only been one so far, a little too early to judge really? Not hard to spot any trickery trading off daily charts .

[DbPhoenix 42]

There has only been one so far, a little too early to judge really? Not hard to spot any trickery trading off daily charts .

 

Not so much a matter of trickery, though the "longs established weeks ago" are irrelevant to a solicitation which is based on a demonstration of real-time performance. More important, while this may be a fine Evans interpretation of the market, it has little to do with Wyckoff, and those who think it does would be wise to do their own investigations.

[BlowFish 10]

Not so much a matter of trickery, though the "longs established weeks ago" are irrelevant to a solicitation which is based on a demonstration of real-time performance....snip....

 

Absolutely! As for your second point that would seem sensible to me too. Mind you, if they (the longs) have all been sold then there won't be anything in the portfolio anyway. One way of reading this is that the shorts will be posted in the week(as they occur) and then the updated portfolio (with any new shorts) will be posted at the weekend. We shall no doubt see.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Absolutely! As for your second point that would seem sensible to me too. Mind you, if they (the longs) have all been sold then there won't be anything in the portfolio anyway. One way of reading this is that the shorts will be posted in the week(as they occur) and then the updated portfolio (with any new shorts) will be posted at the weekend. We shall no doubt see.

 

A true Wyckoff analysis, however, would already have prompted the trader to go short, though waiting for a retracement is perfectly acceptable.

[rollotape9 10]

Let's try this again.

 

Buy 200 shares SDS at $60.13 with a stop placed at $57.45.

 

Rollotape

[firewalker 10]

Let's try this again.

 

Buy 200 shares SDS at $60.13 with a stop placed at $57.45.

 

Rollotape

 

If you would be so kind, I'd appreciate the analysis of the setup for that trade. I'm more interested in the reasoning behind it than the actual trade. Also: how many trades does your approach on average have per month?

 

Good luck.

[rollotape9 10]

If you would be so kind, I'd appreciate the analysis of the setup for that trade. I'm more interested in the reasoning behind it than the actual trade. Also: how many trades does your approach on average have per month?

 

Good luck.

 

Hello Firewalker,

 

The comments on the attached hourly SPY chart details my reasoning behind today's trade.

 

The number of trades I may personally make per month can range from 2-3 trades to as much as 20-30 trades. I am not one of those traders that must trade every day or even every week and I also haven't posted all of my personal trades here. My goal here is to grow this $50,000 portfolio by posting real-time trades using the Wyckoff methodology to try to catch the important turning points in the market at important support/resistance areas on within a trend. However, I will admit that I don't do nearly as well on the short side as I do on the long side from viewing my own extensive trading records.

 

Best of success to you,

Rollotape

[rollotape9 10]

Hello Dbphoenix and brownsfan,

 

Relax and smile.

 

I mentioned the past long trades to only give people a sense of how this portfolio will work. I got the impression that people were expecting that this portfolio was going to make trades every day so I thought it was important for everyone that reads my posts to understand that I am been liquidating long trades over the past couple of weeks as I was beginning to see not only my individual stocks break down but also an important turning point coming in the major market indexes. Therefore, I am in a transition phase going from net long to net short. This transition phase didn't just start today. It started a couple of weeks ago as I judged that a turning point was coming then.

 

As many of you know, I was wrong about that turning point. I may be wrong this time as well. I don't worry about being right or wrong. I am much more concerned whether or not I am consistenly following my rules based on the Wyckoff methodology with patience and discipline. If the market is still heading to higher highs or the next selling wave fails to make much downside progress and I see individual stocks moving into Wyckoff buying positions, I won't mind at all to begin buying stocks again.

 

Best of success to you,

Rollotape

[BlowFish 10]

I wondered why you chose SDS as the vehicle for your trade?

[brownsfan019 17]

Not so much a matter of trickery, though the "longs established weeks ago" are irrelevant to a solicitation which is based on a demonstration of real-time performance. More important, while this may be a fine Evans interpretation of the market, it has little to do with Wyckoff, and those who think it does would be wise to do their own investigations.

 

Yeah BF - what he said!

 

[rollotape9 10]

I wondered why you chose SDS as the vehicle for your trade?

 

Hello Blowfish,

 

I chose to short the SnP over the other major indexes due to its relative weakness compared to the other indexes. Shorting relative weakness and buying relative strength is an essential element to the Wyckoff methodology.

 

When I short the market, I prefer using the higher leveraged ETFs as my trading vehicle. I used to short individual stocks, but because more and more ETFs have come to market and these ETFs are becoming more liquid, I just mainly focus on them.

 

Have a good weekend,

Rollotape

[rollotape9 10]

Hello everyone,

 

I have attached the updated portfolio with this week's new trade.

 

To be honest, I don't like the action on Friday despite the SnP falling. The decreased volume and the little spring that occurred after the SnP tried to break Wednesday's low makes the SnP vulnerable to a rally on Monday.

 

If a downtrend on the hourly chart is really beginning right now, the spring should fail on Monday. I will be watching closely to the intraday action and may even consider scratching the trade to reposition myself at a more favorable price. In a perfect world, a reaction from the Ice/Support level that was recently broken should have wide spread bars and increased volume. We did not get that type of action on Friday. Now, the market could just trade sideways over the next day or two as sellers absorb the buyers before the downtrend resumes in earnest. In the world of the hard right edge, considering a couple of scenarios beforehand is a good idea so we will have a plan of action already scripted so that we can take our emotions out of the equation.

 

Rollotape

 

Rollotape

Traders Laboratory portfolio 051509.xls

[erierambler 10]

Hello everyone,

To be honest, I don't like the action on Friday despite the SnP falling. The decreased volume and the little spring that occurred after the SnP tried to break Wednesday's low makes the SnP vulnerable to a rally on Monday.

 

In the world of the hard right edge, considering a couple of scenarios beforehand is a good idea so we will have a plan of action already scripted so that we can take our emotions out of the equation.

 

Rollotape

 

Rollotape

 

Rollo,

I've attached a couple of charts from my point of view that gives a different perspective. I notice the last move up was very strong and at the highs , new highs diminished as price accelerated into a overbought area above the channel on the WWave chart. Now price has pulled back and new highs are rising again right at the bottom channel which should be a Wyckoff buy point. First excel chart is new highs and second Excel chart is new lows

 

 

 

 

 

erie

Edited May 17, 2009 by erierambler
forgot to label excel charts highs and lows

[rollotape9 10]

Thanks erie for the nice charts.

 

If we get a demand bar on Monday, I will be looking to buy. But, the market has to prove to me that buyers are willing to jump into this market with force. They did not prove it on Friday but Monday is another day.

 

Best of success to you,

Rollotape

[rollotape9 10]

Closing the SDS position at $59.25.

 

Rollotape

[rollotape9 10]

Hello all,

 

I have posted the updated portfolio that only has 2 trades as of now. The portfolio is down a little under 1.5%.

 

The markets are currently in a little trading range with support in the 875-880 zone in the SnP and 1665 zone in the NASDAQ. I will be watching very closely the price/volume behavior at these areas to determine if another shorting opportunity occurs or if a spring occurs which will offer a buying opportunity.

 

Best of success to all,

rollotape

Traders Laboratory portfolio 052209.xls