Wyckoff Newsletter

[rollotape9 10]

Hi everyone,

 

I guess the moderators of the Wyckoff forum believe that trading using the Wyckoff method should not be posted in the Wyckoff forum. Go figure.

 

I guess I will be setting up camp here to continue the abbreviated portion of the Wyckoff newsletter.

 

For traders who are interested in following this newsletter can begin with the Bob's Adaption thread posted in the Wyckoff forum that was closed and then continue to this forum.

 

Sorry for the disruption,

Rollotape

[monad 10]

Guess they wish to keep it pure Wyckoff, devoid of the various other terms like jumping over the creek, breaking the ice etc which is not in the original Wyckoff.

Folks at ltg-trading.com also employ these terminology, VSA lot have their own, so really having a separate thread in another forum for discussion should not be a problem. However if you keep on about the newsletter, then obviously this will be construed as exhorting traders in here to subscribe.

[Tams 20]

maybe you can call it the Rollotape Newsletter

[sevensa 10]

Hi everyone,

 

I guess the moderators of the Wyckoff forum believe that trading using the Wyckoff method should not be posted in the Wyckoff forum. Go figure.

 

I guess I will be setting up camp here to continue the abbreviated portion of the Wyckoff newsletter.

 

For traders who are interested in following this newsletter can begin with the Bob's Adaption thread posted in the Wyckoff forum that was closed and then continue to this forum.

 

Sorry for the disruption,

Rollotape

 

What are your intentions with this thread? To get subscribers for your subscription based newsletter or to educate people in your method of trading? I will give you the benefit of the doubt for now, but this look very much like you are using this as free advertising for your for fee services.

[erierambler 10]

Hi everyone,

 

I guess the moderators of the Wyckoff forum believe that trading using the Wyckoff method should not be posted in the Wyckoff forum. Go figure.

 

 

Sorry for the disruption,

Rollotape

 

Yes, I'm disappointed that this happened. Obviously you have been subjected to some heavy-handedness. But such is life sometimes

Looking forward to your thread with interest. It should spice things up a bit. Anyone who has taken the SMI course for Wyckoff has been introduced to Evans.

good luck,

erie

[brownsfan019 17]

Just ask DB to move those posts into this thread. Very easily done via the moderation controls. No point of having a closed thread elsewhere.

[Eiger 10]

Yes, I'm disappointed that this happened. Obviously you have been subjected to some heavy-handedness. But such is life sometimes

Looking forward to your thread with interest. It should spice things up a bit. Anyone who has taken the SMI course for Wyckoff has been introduced to Evans.

good luck,

erie

 

I agree. Once again I am reminded of the adage that the true character of a person is revealed by what he or she does. No matter. This is as good a place as any for discussing Wyckoff. Bob Evans was a great educator in my judgement. Have you ever listened to the tape series he did from about the 1940s through the late 1960s? There are some real gems there. (For those who may be unware, Robert Evans owned Wyckoff Associates after Wyckoff died and developed what is now know as Unit 3 - the tape series - of the Wyckoff Course. He also did weekly chart analysis sent out via tape of current stocks).

 

Instead of making Wyckoff more obscure, he worked hard to help the average guy learn the method. Plus, he added some wonderful material to the course. Evans's work, along with Wyckoff's case study of the 1930-31 market are some of the most important Wyckoff material for me. And, I agree with Rollotape - the 1930-31 case study had much to say about bar analysis.

 

I am looking forward to this thread, too.

 

Eiger

[Eiger 10]

maybe you can call it the Rollotape Newsletter

 

Just as a friendly FYI - Rollotape was a pen name used by Wyckoff in early writing like Studies in Tape Reading

[rollotape9 10]

What are your intentions with this thread?

 

Hi sevensa,

 

To hopefully make this $50,000 portfolio grow as everyone follows both the winning and losing trades in real-time.

 

Rollotape

[rollotape9 10]

Have you ever listened to the tape series he did from about the 1940s through the late 1960s? There are some real gems there.

Eiger

 

Hi Eiger,

 

Yes, I am a big fan of the Evans tapes. I am also a big fan of the George King tapes.

 

Rollotape

[firewalker 10]

Back on topic with your first trade, going short on SPY, I actually disagree with what you're seeing in the chart. And I also wonder if Wyckoff would be the person to short this kind of obvious uptrend. Even if momentum is temporarily weakening, I think there are plenty of reason to stay long until the market shows otherwise.

 

Regardless of what is 'right' or 'wrong', mine is also just one of the potential interpretations of current price action on the S&P. I left out volume for the time being, because like you said yourself the primarily element is the trend, and after the V-shape reversal that took place at the beginning of March, we have been making higher highs and higher lows, moving along the channel (see chart).

 

Yes, it's true the last swing high failed to reach the supplyline, but the last swing low also failed to reach the demandline and held above 860. I think that, if you trade according to the Wyckoff method (I'm not talking about intraday plays), that a short trade would not be initiated until more weakness presents itself.

 

And as for that upthrust you perceived, afaik an upthrust is a quick move above resistance which fails to find interest, and consequently falls back below resistance. I don't see any such thing on the ES, all I see is a break above 860 and a test, which (on Friday), offered another long opportunity.

[erierambler 10]

Have you ever listened to the tape series he did from about the 1940s through the late 1960s?

 

Eiger

 

Yes I have them, but it's been about 7 yrs since listening to them Maybe I will get them out of storage ........

 

erie

[erierambler 10]

 

Yes, it's true the last swing high failed to reach the supplyline, but the last swing low also failed to reach the demandline and held above 860. I think that, if you trade according to the Wyckoff method (I'm not talking about intraday plays), that a short trade would not be initiated until more weakness presents itself.

 

Yes you are correct Fw, I believe Rollo said he may have initiated his trade a little early before seeing the last bar on Friday. We need to see some failure.

 

erie

[Tams 20]

Yes you are correct Fw, I believe Rollo said he may have initiated his trade a little early before seeing the last bar on Friday. We need to see some failure.

erie

 

 

 

... ... pun intended?

[Flojomojo 10]

Bob Evans was a great educator in my judgement. Have you ever listened to the tape series he did from about the 1940s through the late 1960s? There are some real gems there. (For those who may be unware, Robert Evans owned Wyckoff Associates after Wyckoff died and developed what is now know as Unit 3 - the tape series - of the Wyckoff Course.

 

Hi Eiger,

could you post, or send me a link, to the Evans material? Sound very interesting...maybe the material should be included in the Wyckoff Resources thread in the Wyckoff forum.

Regards,

Flojo

[erierambler 10]

... ... pun intended?

 

No pun intended, and if there was , what would it be? Sorry if I don't understand

I won't be around today so have a good one....... back later this afternoon.

 

erie

[BlowFish 10]

Yes, I'm disappointed that this happened. Obviously you have been subjected to some heavy-handedness. But such is life sometimes

Looking forward to your thread with interest. It should spice things up a bit. Anyone who has taken the SMI course for Wyckoff has been introduced to Evans.

good luck,

erie

 

Just ask DB to move those posts into this thread. Very easily done via the moderation controls. No point of having a closed thread elsewhere.

 

Funnily enough that was pretty much exactly what I said in a PM.......great minds and all that. Still look forward to following along wherever the venue.

 

Incidentally are the two tape sets mentioned earlier still available?

[Eiger 10]

Hi Eiger,

could you post, or send me a link, to the Evans material? Sound very interesting...maybe the material should be included in the Wyckoff Resources thread in the Wyckoff forum.

Regards,

Flojo

 

Hi Flojo,

 

The tapes used to be offered just a short time ago as cassettes for about $6 US each, less if you bought in quantity. They came with large format charts. Up until recently, Wyckoff/SMI would copy them off their old tape machines (reel-to-reel, I think) onto cassettes as orders came in. They have the complete set of Evans's tapes, who started the practice (and, I believe very early on, Evans would actually send out the tape machine with the weekly tape to subscribers!). He covered then current markets as well as reviews of sections of the original course and new elements about the markets that he and others at Wyckoff/SMI discovered. The recorded series also includes more than Robert Evans, now called "Evans's Echoes." George King did an excellent series on the original course (and, as Rollo mentioned, these are excellent), Dave Mathys did many tapes on then current markets, springs, UTs, and other topics during the late 1960s/1970s, Craig Schroeder--current director of Wyckoff/SMI--covered quite good material in the 1980s/1990s, and others did short series as well. As you can see, there is an enormous library of recorded history and education on the Wyckoff Method available in addition to the written course. In addition to the tapes, there is some written material, as well. I have, for example, a few stock case studies and discussions of volume and price authored by some of the names mentioned above -- all quite useful material. Unfortunately, I think much of the written material has been lost over time. Fortunately, most of the tapes still exist.

 

Now, SMI/Wyckoff is in the process of converting the tapes into MP3 format. The price has gone up, of course and there are only a handful available at the moment in this format. You can find them on the link posted below. I don't know the status of the remaining written materials

 

I believe I still have a list of all of the tapes Wyckoff/SMI has. If I can find it, I will post into this thread. Regarding posting to Wyckoff Resources - frankly, each time there is a post to the so-called Wyckoff Forum that references Wyckoff/SMI, the post either gets trashed or censored in some way as "not being true Wyckoff" (and, God help you if it references VSA) by the moderator. That's unfortunate as it unilaterally censors nearly 80 years of history and development of the Wyckoff Method, forbids free and open dicussion, and certainly runs contrary to Wyckoff's intention in establishing Wyckoff Associates, now SMI, but that is what exists.

 

Wyckoff Stock Market Institute Tapes

[Eiger 10]

Here is a partial list of tapes that Wyckoff/SMI recorded over the years. This does not include any of the tapes made by Robert Evans (still looking for that list). Nonetheless, you can see just by glancing at the list there are many, many topics covered in quite good detail by the people who lived and breathed Wyckoff 24/7.

 

Also, this is a list that dates back a few years. A small number of these tapes were converted into MP3. Please contact Wyckoff/SMI (see link above) for current tape/MP3 availability and current prices.

 

Again, there is a huge inventory of information developed by numerous Wyckoff experts we all could be talking about, discussing, and learning from ...

 

Hope this is useful,

 

Eiger

SMI Trading Techniques.pdf

[Flojomojo 10]

Regarding posting to Wyckoff Resources - frankly, each time there is a post to the so-called Wyckoff Forum that references Wyckoff/SMI, the post either gets trashed or censored in some way as "not being true Wyckoff" (and, God help you if it references VSA) by the moderator. That's unfortunate as it unilaterally censors nearly 80 years of history and development of the Wyckoff Method, forbids free and open dicussion, and certainly runs contrary to Wyckoff's intention in establishing Wyckoff Associates, now SMI, but that is what exists.

 

Thanks for the link. Thought so that it eventually leads to SMI. I think the "original" course by Wyckoff is not publically available and SMI sells a modified version. As far as I know DB has an original and gladly he posts some sections from time to time.

 

Nevertheless I can understand and appreciate that the Wyckoff forum is kept clean. Although this seems to come across a bit harsh sometimes. It has its good sides not to mix the different beliefs on how to read the market, even if these beliefs have its root in the same teachings.

 

I am not in a position to judge whether in the past 80 years the method was "developed" or "altered". Would be nice though to read an unbiased study about the issue someday.

[Eiger 10]

Thanks for the link. Thought so that it eventually leads to SMI. I think the "original" course by Wyckoff is not publically available and SMI sells a modified version. As far as I know DB has an original and gladly he posts some sections from time to time.

 

Nevertheless I can understand and appreciate that the Wyckoff forum is kept clean. Although this seems to come across a bit harsh sometimes. It has its good sides not to mix the different beliefs on how to read the market, even if these beliefs have its root in the same teachings.

 

I am not in a position to judge whether in the past 80 years the method was "developed" or "altered". Would be nice though to read an unbiased study about the issue someday.

 

Well, keeping things separated and trashing/censoring are horses of vastly different colours, as they say. Wyckoff/SMI seems to have done a pretty good job at keeping the 'Old Testiment' and the 'New Testiment' separated over the years, but you need to look at the material to understand that.

 

The original course, unaltered, is still available from Wyckoff/SMI on special request. Unit 2 (Old Testiment) has been modified over the years (last time in the 1970s, I believe), but mostly for clarity; it is really not that different from the original (1931). Units 1 (introduction) and 3 (New Testiment) have not altered the original course (Unit 2). And, Units 4 & 5 are practice trading and a 'final exam' that includes both the old and the new. Many of the tapes focus on the original course (Geo King's "Back to the Books" series, for example), others on the newer material.

 

There is much misinformation out there on this issue, and of course lots of bias. Be careful that what you are told isn't just more biased misinformation. As with everything in trading and in life, make your own informed decisions.

 

Eiger

[firewalker 10]

I am not in a position to judge whether in the past 80 years the method was "developed" or "altered". Would be nice though to read an unbiased study about the issue someday.

 

Or... you can just compare Rollo's interpretation with those of others (for example the one I did this morning) who haven't read anything else, other than the original work, and see how it adds up against what happens in the market.

[rollotape9 10]

Back on topic with your first trade, going short on SPY, I actually disagree with what you're seeing in the chart. And I also wonder if Wyckoff would be the person to short this kind of obvious uptrend. Even if momentum is temporarily weakening, I think there are plenty of reason to stay long until the market shows otherwise.

 

 

Hi firewalker,

 

I agree that on the timeframe you are looking at, the trend is definitely up. But, from the larger timeframe, the trend is not up. The market is rallying into a resistance area. Can the market potentially breakout above the resistance area or jump over the creek for the Bob Evans folks? It sure can. The market sure seems like that is what is happening with the wide range up bar on increased volume and strong close as I was stopped out of this trade this morning for a $540 loss based on the $61.40 trailing stop. The rally into the close on Friday already made me think that the trade may not work out, but because the risk was so small and the potential reward based on the PnF chart I sent over the weekend was pretty good, I was willing to let the stop take me out of the trade.

 

One thing that converging of TLs and a one-eyed Joe tells us is that a move is coming but doesn't tell us in which direction. Based on my read of the price/volume behavior, I judged that the move would be down. The market said otherwise.

 

The trick to being a professional trader is not always being right or never being wrong. The trick is to be right more than wrong and to make more money when you are right vs. losing money when you are wrong. A set of proven rules that have stood the test of time will give you the edge of being on the right side more often than not. Good money management rules will give you the advantage of making more money on the winning trades vs. losing money on the losing trades. Wyckoff's methodology helps with both of these sets of rules in my humble opinion.

 

My rules have been created as a result of many years of experience of making mistakes and doing well in applying the Wyckoff methodology. Gradually the mistakes decreased and the proper trades increased to a point where I could trade professionally but it certainly was not easy, at least not for me. Morever, as everyone can see with my 1st trade at this forum, I can still make losing trades with the best of them. However, what I think separates me from many newsletter writers is that I don't make excuses for losing trades or hide them. I may make 5 losing trades in a row even though that has not happened in a while. But like any professional trader, he/she has absolute confidence in his/her rules and realizes that trading is marathon and not a dash. The traders who have proven rules for applying the Wyckoff method always come out ahead in the end even though the road can be bumpy at times.

 

Best of success in your trading,

Rollotape

[rollotape9 10]

Hi everyone,

 

Today was kind of a boring day which is good in order to confirm the potential breakout or JAC. My plan will be to look to get positioned in relatively strong stocks on a weak reaction to a support zone. I would need to see heavy supply enter the market that negates the action from Monday to get me to look to short the market again.

 

As Wyckoff himself suggested, we just need to let the action of the market be our guide.

 

Rollotape

[rollotape9 10]

Hi everyone,

 

Today's action in the market puts the market in a very vulnerable position to begin a more significant selling wave than we have seen since the March low. A weak rally to the minor 900 Ice level will indicate to me that an important turning point has been confirmed. I originally though that we were going to get the turning point a couple of weeks ago hence the short trade posted here. Wyckoff, himself, often mentioned that the turning points are where low risk trades are made. Our ability to identify them, especially the more important ones, are important in trading the Wyckoff method with some success.

 

I have sold all of my longs established weeks ago except for one which will probably end up being a loss. My plan will be to short Upthrusts and test of Upthrusts on a weak rally into resistance areas like the 900 area in the SnP for example. I would actually like to see the selling wave stay above 800which is just above the 1/2 point, which is important to Wyckoff in judging the strength/weakness of a potential developing uptrend on the weekly chart.

 

I will post the short trades as they occur in the coming days. I may get an opportunity as early as tomorrow to begin shorting the market. I will post the updated portfolio this weekend. Right now, it only shows 1 trade with a loss.

 

Best of success to all,

Rollotape