Weekly Analysis

[Office rat 10]

Major indices closed the week by decrease, review of the USA market

 

On Friday stocks fell down and closed the week of their growth. S&P 500 index declined for 2%, NYSE marked 2.1% decrease, NASDAQ was cut to 1.8% and Dow industry index – for 1.7%. Small-cap companies experienced a heavier decline; S&P 600 index lost 3.2%. NYSE volume grew for 25% and at the same time NASDAQ volume increased for 7% in comparison with Thursday level, on the date when options expire. On March 16 S&P 500 and NASDAQ had a more serious loss. Two days of heavy decline within such a short time is not a good sign. One more reason for trouble is that days of distribution came very soon after the signal for market decline was received on March 12.

 

These two days of distribution conduced to a negative mood in spite of general growth of the market within the week. Besides, by the date of closure NASDAQ fell down to the average 50-days level. Dow increased for 0.8 % within the week, S&P 500 - for 1.6 %, NASDAQ +1.8 %, +2.4 % NYSE. S&P 600 lost 1.5 %. As it was mentioned before, to a serious extent the market was supported by financial stock’s recovery and in a lesser degree – by growth of technological stocks and other sectors. On Friday drop of these stocks decreased the value of major indices. The same day one of the leaders of recent financial growth - the Bank of America Corporation (BAC) – dropped to 11 %. Branch of the American International Group filed a lawsuit against subsidiary of the BAC - Countrywide Financial – which undertook loan modifications.

 

Stocks of other major banks also fell down. Techs stocks dropped as well; negative forecast from Sony Ericsson impacted the sector. Cell phone manufacturer reported they expect losses in the first quarter because of falling consumer demand. Ericsson (ERIC) declined for 11 %.

 

Stocks of power, transport and machinery industries decreased as well. IBD 100 index declined. Leading stocks of IBD index lost 1.2 % and had not increased during the week. Some shares with the highest rank conduced to positive expectations. A few stocks were able to sustain an upward trend.

 

Starent Networks (STAR) stocks dropped for 1.03 % by 16.25. CL King Shares decreased sharply after a period of sustainable growth. NVE Corp. (NVEC) fell down to 31.14 for 2.59 %. Stocks of sensor devices manufacturer Spintronic lost 21 % from their maximum value achieved within 52 weeks.

 

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke announced on the bank conference that in future paying bank compensation packages will be under the focus of particular attention. According to him, this policy “can create perverse incentives” which damage banks. His notes came after the discussion about bonuses paid to officers of American AIG.

[Office rat 10]

On Friday stocks went down and closed the third week of growth

 

Weekly review of the USA market from March 30

 

Stock market closed Friday with significant losses, unpromising economic data and tough comments from the major bank officers of the state. NASDAQ and NYSE indices decreased for 2.6 %, S&P - for 2 % and Dow - 1.9 %. Falling stocks overplayed growing stocks in approximate relation 3 against 1. The volume of two major exchanges dropped. But there was no collapse for the best market stocks, and just a few decreased significantly. After having the meeting with Obama a number of CEO managing problematic financial institutions announced moderate forecasts for the March results after two strong months. Normally day loss in the rate of 2% or 2.6% would be too much. But the market is still volatile. Friday decline is not considerable against the day chart. Friday losses could not prevent major indices to register profit within the third week in succession. The week gave Dow index 6.8 % of increase, S&P 500 +6.2 %, Nasdaq +6 % and +5.5% for NYSE index.

 

The market performed in a positive manner the last week. The volume dropped when prices were falling and the volume grew when the market grew. There were no days of distribution. The market closed after reaching its maximum twice – on Monday and Thursday.

 

The market gained more than 10% of increase against the session of March 16 – the first distribution day starting from March 12 when correction finished. Some concerns were caused by a too slight grow of IBD 100 index – just 4.4 % within the week – being behind expanding indices. It continued the tendency of current rally. Finally, the market rally will require leaders.

 

The index of Emergency Medical Services (EMS), declined for 6 %.

 

Volume of trades increased against the average value significantly but fell by the end of Friday.

 

The index of Monro Muffler Brake (MNRO) dropped for 7 % in active trading. Stocks of tires shops and services ended 3 weeks growth.

 

According to economic news, consumers’ revenues decreased for 0.2 % - a little worse than it was expected. Private expenses increased for 0.2 %, after 1% of January increase. РСЕ (personal consumption expenditure deflator), the favorite indicator of the FR for inflation, grew for 1 % in February – more than it was expected. РСЕ core increased for 1.8 % in February exceeding the forecast. Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index gained 57.3 for March. In February it was 56.3. It is little better than expected but near the worst value of the last 30 years.

[Office rat 10]

On Friday stocks demonstrated a reversal from going down to increasing and transformed morning losses into the growth by the end of the day. Eventually NASDAQ increased for 1.2 %. 1% of growth was granted to NYSE Composite and S&P 500 indices, 0.5% - to Dow industry index. In comparison with Thursday level, NASDAQ and NYSE volume fell down for 23 % and 21 % respectively. Friday provided one more proof of the stock market’s strength. Increased number of purchases started prior to closing promoted major indices to the top of their daily range.

 

The week increase of NASDAQ was 5 %, of NYSE – 4.4 %, S&P 500 - 3.3 %, and +3.1 % to Dow. S&P 600 index for small-cap companies had shot up for 6.8 %. It was the fourth consecutive week of growth for major indices. In the case of NASDAQ we see the fourth consecutive week of prominent growth. Technological index grew more than for 25% in this period being ahead of NYSE indices. The flow of positive or “better than expected” economic data conduced to a new upward trend of the stock market. Two reports of Friday morning seemed to threaten this tendency. In March employment market lost 663 000 workplaces, unemployment rate reached 8.5% and is expected to grow further.

 

Unemployment rate went up to its maximum for 25 years, as Department of Labor reports. Analysts forecast that within four or five months we’ll see over 500 thousand of losses of workplaces. Unemployment rate is believed to reach its maximum - 9.5 % - in October, whereas more pessimistic forecast reports about 10% next year. 1 year before a more extended rate, including both part-time and full-time employees, grew from 9.1% to 15.6%. Department of Labor revised January report about workplaces with 86 000 growth.

 

Institute of Supply Management Index – indicator of economic activity in services sector – went down to 40.8. A slight growth was expected. For the first hour of trades this data declined the market. Research in Motion (RIMM) was leading in techs shares. On the late Thursday BlackBerry manufacturer reported about quarter profit which exceeded estimations.

 

RIMM increased for as much as 21 % and was the most traded stock on NASDAQ. In the meantime reserves started decline. On the contrary, golden shares such as Randgold Resources (GOLD) and Royal Gold (RGLD) sharply declined within the last days.

Still there are a few opportunities for purchasing shares, because just a few shares formed correct basis and strong start for prices. IBD 100 demonstrated poor 0.2% of growth on Friday and just 1% within a week. Gilead Sciences (GILD) was ahead with 2.28% of increase up to 46.98 in active trading. Medicine manufacturer grew after the positive results of the last stage of clinical testing of the pressure control appliance were reported. Allegiant Travel (ALGT) declined heavily for 3.68 down to 45.42. Airline service operator reported about the pop as of 15.8 % in the year traffic. The level of return of 10-year’s Treasuries increased for 2.90 % from 2.75 % on the market of state obligations on Thursday’s closing.

[Office rat 10]

April, 13

 

Stocks closed the second week of growth; Banks, retail business are the leaders

 

On Thursday stock market finished shortened week by significant increase due to the optimistic forecast by Wells Fargo (WFC). NASDAQ and NYSE indices both grew for 3.9 %; S&P 500 went up with a leap for 3.8 %, and Dow index added 3.1 %. The growth flashed around the market, only four groups from 197 IBD sectors fell down. On the NYSE market the relation between advanced and declined stocks was as of 15 against 2 – due to the plenty of bank stocks and for NASDAQ this relation was as of 5 against 2. The volume of two major stocks grew; here NYSE was leading. It can be explained by huge trading volumes with Wells Fargo and Bank of America (BAC) stocks as well as with other stocks of financial sector. The mere volume of trading with BofA stocks amounted to more than 1 billion of stocks presenting solely the largest volume increase on the NYSE market. Wells Fargo surprised Wall Street having reported about preliminary profit as of 55 cents per share for the first Quarter.

 

Rise of bank shares was caused by the reaction after their profound recession. Friday increase reversed the week from decline into growth. The volume decreased but it might happen because of the shortened week.

The most positive news is that now major indices have 5 week’s raising history. The lowest indices for many years were supported by the gradually growing market at last. NASDAQ grew for 31 % against its minimum on March, 9th. NYSE grew for 29 % against its minimum on March, 6th; S&P 500 added 28 %, and Dow - 25 %.

Here is one more sign of that economy is getting better: Retails stocks are returning as leading. Aeropostale (ARO) clothing store chain increased for 12 %. In March its comparable sales were beneath the forecast, but the company expects to earn 35 cents per share in the first quarter, much more than the forecast gives. Besides, Buckle (BKE) stocks grew for 10 %. Jos. A. Bank Clothiers (JOSB) increased for 5 % on Thursday and for 20 % on Wednesday.

[Office rat 10]

The week closed with a slight increase, IBD 100 оutrode the market

Review of the US market by May 4

 

On Friday the week closed with a moderate increase, low-volume stocks slightly grew.

 

On Friday NYSE was leading and marked 1% of increase which happened due to the rise of oil and gas stocks. Dow and S&P 500 added 0.5 %; Nasdaq closed almost without changes - 0.1 %.

 

NYSE volume decreased for 25 % and Nasdaq - for 23 %.

 

The US market had a few of incentives for movement because the most part of major international exchanges were closed for 1 May holiday.

The growth of University of Michigan consumer confidence index and a number of stabilization signs in industry served as new indications for market proving that the economy started consolidating.

The same factors seem to influence rise of oil prices which grew for 2.08$ up to 53.20$ per barrel. This 5-week’s peak point in oil prices caused growing of power-generating sector.

 

Oil-related sectors were among leaders of the day. But essentially there is no one shares pretending to be the market leader. Many of them are just recovering after huge losses of recent months.

 

In general, leaders achieved good results.

 

Chinese company Longtop Financial (LFT), software engineer for business purposes, added 2.54 and reached 26.20. The share broke through the key level 26.09 which is the entry point after bounce from 10 week’s moving average.

 

VistaPrint (VPRT), online supplier of services and products, grew for 2.91 up to 37.26 in large volumes. The company reported on late Thursday and its forecast for year left analysts’ expectations behind.

 

Beacon Roofing Supply (BECN) increased sharply for 1.21 up to 17.11, also in active trading, broke through 15.15 level – purchase point.

 

But the member of IBD 100, Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD), fell for 2.22 down to 36.82. This is their third decrease in succession in large volume.

 

The upward market trend is still safe. Nasdaq registered its 8th rising week in succession though for modest 1.5 %.

 

Other major market indices demonstrated the dynamics similar to its behavior within 7 recent weeks.

 

The last week Nasdaq became the first market index among growing indices which broke 200-days’ moving average.

 

Two months of rapid growth can give a respite to May.

 

IBD 100, the index of the best market shares, increased for 2.8 % within the week. It is a positive consolidation after the period of underrun from other indices.

 

As a rule the best shares of rise won in bull rally.

 

Though anomalous rally has its historical precedents. Our research of post-crisis bull rally of 1932, 1938, 1975 and 2002 year show that the best leaders in these rallies appeared after the general market growth had begun.

 

My opinion remains the same: the market growth within the last two months significantly lost contact with actual economy which is still down. Before the growth continues at least one week of decline is required.

[Office rat 10]

After all, 9 weeks' growth of NASDAQ interrupted

 

Review of the US market by May 16

 

On Friday the market finished a volatile week with moderate losses.

 

NYSE fell for 1.2%, S&P 500 lost 1.1 %, Dow declined for 0.8 %, and Nasdaq – for 0.5 %.

 

The volume of major exchanges fell down. Taking into account that Friday was expiration day for options, this decline was strange. On the other hand, it is better when the market drops torpidly.

 

Energetic and financial sectors dominated among losers of the day.

 

From May 8 to 15 NASDAQ lost 3.4% and stopped its 9 week's of continuous increase. The same week took 5% from S&P 500, 5.6% from NYSE Composite and 3.6% - from Dow industrial index . NASDAQ and NYSE faced resistance in its 200 days' moving averages. Besides, all indices closed near minimum points of their week's discretion.

 

Though trading volume was lower than the volume of preceding week due to the expectation of normal correction.

 

Leading growth stocks were under pressure but managed to take over the market on Friday.

 

IBD 100 index increased up to 0.1%, index fell for 3.5% within a week – on the level of leading indices or better.

 

IBD index of economic optimism of the best growth stock was behind of the market within the most part of current upward trend.

 

A number of leading stocks demonstrated growing dynamics.

 

Red Hat (RHT), developing company of open source operating systems, added 1.74 up to 19.86 due to rumors about its selling to IBM company. Its stocks passed key exit point of 19.26. But profit of the company in the last quarter increased for 10%, and analysts forecast EPS (earnings per share) decrease within the future four quarters.

 

After such a long growth certain market consolidation could be expected. Now, when upward trend of the market is under pressure, one should think carefully before purchasing of any share and ready to fix profit in some cases.

 

On preceding “main day” of the market indices heavily bounced in the beginning but took a long pause before a new growth started. At that time a lot of new attractive growth stocks.

 

Counting market distribution days does not cause concerns. April 14 and 22 distribution days are removed from counting.

 

Since the market grew a lot, these days are not in the focus of attention anymore. Besides, in the view of low market volatility it is sensible to take into account smaller changes of indices on the event of removing distribution day from accountancy.

 

What are the leading groups according to the results of the week?

 

In fact protective papers played this role and included stocks of commercial education and provision related branches.

 

Tobacco as classical protective branch was the fifth strong group of the week.

[Office rat 10]

Third month of increase: The last trading hour market increased due to the volume growth and closed May

US stock market review by May 29

 

Final increase marked positive mood of investors on Friday.

NASDAQ grew for 1.5% in the final trading hour having demonstrated its day growth in fact by this rapid movement. NYSE, S&P 500 added 1.4 % and stocks of industrial Dow - for 1.1 %.

 

The volume of two major exchanges grew and raised the last hour too.

 

Closing short positions and increasing commodities prices served as the main reasons of growth. But on the whole closing of the week was optimistic especially if to take into account moderate trading within the week.

 

On Wednesday NASDAQ had higher volume of sales, its 5th distribution day within the last weeks.

Still the index replied by growth within two next sessions, both in increased volume.

 

The week growth of NASDAQ is 4.9 %, its best week value from the beginning of April. NYSE moved for 3.7 %, S&P 500 +3.6 %, +2.7 % Dow.

 

At the same time major indices closed the third month of growth in succession.

Week growth of NYSE was rather high, therefore distribution day - May 13 – may be excluded from calculating.

 

Despite a strong growth of broad market, growth stock did not demonstrate notable results on Friday.

A number of growth stock reached a higher volume. In many cases they just continued forming consolidation figures. On Friday IBD 100 added 1.2 %.

 

Starent Networks (STAR) achieved maximum value for 17 months. Manufacturer of wire-free appliances grows after it was corrected up to 10 week's moving average value.

 

Some growth stocks continued correction.

 

Quality Systems (QSII) went below 50 days' moving average value Stocks four-time lost 5 % after quarter report which demonstrated that sales disappointed investors.

 

Stocks of public health sector were among the weakest on Friday.

Stocks of transport companies were leaders of the day.

Baltic Dry Index, indicator of commodities delivering cost – and indicator of industrial activity at the same time – achieved its maximum October point. Chinese demand for ironstone exceeded parlays.

 

The market was tuned in increase when the government revised GDP value of the first quarter for a rise. But the report about industrial activity of Middle West was not encouraging.

 

The market faces several negative factors including accruing sale of government obligations, rising oil prices and concerns about growing inflation in the future.

 

In fact, weakness of stock environment was to a significant extent a response to a leap of yield of government notes. On Friday yield of 10 years Treasuries fell down for 17 points thereby erasing week's growth.

 

USA dollar demonstrated a strong decline perhaps due to a reason that investors are looking for safer assets.

[Office rat 10]

According to the results of the week, IBD 100 is behind the broad market

 

 

 

On Friday stocks closed in a combined way in a lower volume after a strong recovery from morning losses.

 

While loosing 1.6% within a day, NASDAQ compensated the most part of losses having lost only 0.2%. S&P 500 added 0.1% and Dow - 0.3%.

 

Within the first several hours there was a high volume accompanying strong sales. By the end of the day NASDAQ volume fell down for 17% and NYSE – for 30%.

 

Major indices closed the week with a slight increase.

NYSE supported by rapidly growing commodities and demonstrated the best growth – just 1.1%.

S&P 500 grew for 0.7 %, Nasdaq – for 0.5 % and Dow – for 0.4%.

 

The market also recorded distribution day – decreasing of the volume growth on Wednesday with a slight decline on Thursday. The volume increased on that day as well.

 

A number of top-ranked growth shares had sales.

 

On June 1 wireless communication provider Neutral Tandem (TNDM) demonstrated a new maximum value after it bounced from 10-weeks' moving average. The last week this share experienced a heavy drop, in particular, on Monday, Wednesday and Thursday.

 

Chinese software manufacturer Longtop Financial (LFT) passed 28.84 – its recovery point, but lost 4% on Friday. Though the previous day it strengthened a little. After loosing huge 15% it met support of 50 days' average and won back the most part of its losses.

 

Whereas the most part of major growth shares avoided serious problems, IBD 100 lost 2.1% for the week.

 

According to the results of recent four weeks, index won from the broad market.

 

It was a long-awaited consolidation of growth shares' indices. But growth index was behind broad indices from March 12 to May 8.

 

Under common conditions growth shares must be leading stocks of the market.

 

Though against the background of falling prices – or financial panics – after active sales of shares any subsequent growth is to be caused by the growth of the most underestimated stocks attracting strategic investors. As a rule, real leaders appear later.

 

Let's have a look at Taser International (TASR) manufacturer, one of superstars of the market in 2003 – 2004 years.

 

When bursted technical bubble caused bear market, investors should have been waiting until 2003 March – the start of real bull market. And even then 4 months were required for Taser to take leadership.

 

Let's compare the situation with today's market. 3 months after current confirmed upward tendency begun more leaders appeared. Foundations are forming and stocks start their growth. Some of them face problems but there is no wave of massive falls.

 

 

This is not the guarantee of future profit yet. You still need to choose a correct moment for entrance, take inevitable losses as granted and trade in harmony with the market state.

[Office rat 10]

Review by June 19

 

On Friday there was no peculiarly good news, but NASDAQ grew later and was leading on combined market.

 

The index of big technological companies grew for 1.1%, NYSE and S&P 500 added 0.3% and 0.5% respectively.

 

Dow lost under 0.2% and scarcely avoided a new distribution day. It closed session under its 200-days' moving average value within the 5th day running.

 

Other major indexes support value over its 200-days' average, thereby having transferred this controversial area from resistance into support.

 

Notwithstanding the volume increase, day results cannot be canceled. The last “quadruple witching” day in March, distribution day was registered.

 

On Friday leaders avoided recession. Whereas a few shares fell down in a strong volume, other met support in a key average volume or built new foundations.

 

There was no leader with a big volume decline.

 

IBD 100 increased for 1.2 %, having decreased its losses down to 1.8 % by the end of the week. Growth shares ranked the best behaved better than S&P 500 with its 1.6% drop down but at the same time much worse then NASDAQ result with the loss as of 1.7%.

 

Chinese stocks continued performing as leaders of growth.

 

Fuqi International (FUQI), jewelry manufacturer, added 1.50% and reached 17.63, more than in triple.

 

Perfect World (PWRD), Bejing developer of on-line games, added 2.50% and reached 29.18 in a huge volume.

 

Other Chinese stocks – such as Shanda Interactive Entertainment (SNDA), AsiaInfo (ASIA) and American Dairy (ADY) – look much better after recent bounces.

 

Despite the week of inactive action on the market, at least one leading growth share reached a new maximum. HMS Holdings (HMSY) was growing within five days in succession – four times in a high volume.

 

On Friday share grew for 0.90 in a heavy volume so to be able to close in 40.06.

 

Among the most active stocks, Microsoft (MSFT) shows a certain activity. The share was growing within 16 among 19 recent sessions and is higher for 59% against its march achievement. On Friday the security added 0.57 after Goldman Sachs included software company in its list of purchases. Its fundamental features are combined though. Its profit increase as of pretax 42% and ROE as of 53% are great but its EPS rating is just 64. It means that one third of all other stocks shows a faster growth of EPS.

[Office rat 10]

NASDAQ is growing, RUSSEL among other factors, made DOW decline

 

By Friday's closure trading moved up because Russel composition was revised and stocks closed in a combined way against the background of increased volume.

 

NASDAQ closed with 0.5% increase. S&P 500 and NYSE lost 0.1%, Dow fell down for 0.4% having shown the fourth distribution day within recent weeks.

 

IBD 100 added 1.2% having gained due to major indices within the third day in succession.

 

Volume grows, stocks decline due to revise of Russel indices. On the last Friday of June volume grew after it had been declining for the most part of the day. NYSE volume increased for 74% and NASDAQ volume grew for 58%. Indirect proof say that Friday's volume increase was related to Russel re-computation.

 

Widely-known Russell Investments' indexes are recomputed every June. Funds related to Russel were selling or buying stocks in respect of whether they are on the index list.

 

Till the last trading hour the volume of two exchanges was below an average level.

 

Whereas other indexes grew, Dow fell down within 8 among 10 recent sessions.

 

Three shares weight down Dow heavily and they did not relate to Russel. Boeing (BA) fell down for 18% within the last 10 sessions; General Electrics (GE) declined for 13%; and Alcoa (AA) lost 10%.

 

On the last Friday of month the best growth shares grew or sharply went down in a large trading volume – almost equally.

 

American Dairy (ADY) added 2.31 and reached 40.96 in triple volume.

 

Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX), which started on Wednesday, lost 1.52 and went down to 24.66 approximately in fivefold volume.

 

Hawkins (HWKN), the company of chemical branch, added 0.80 up to 22.50 in more than 14-times fold volume growth. The share was added to Russel composition.

 

Within the last June days news were combined and did not influence much.

 

Private income rate added 1.4%, above the forecasted rate as of 0.3%.

 

Savings ratio sharply increased from 6.9% and it is the best result from 1993 year. It makes investors concern about economic slowdown.

 

Though the news, which impacted stocks, was ambigious. Retail stocks, which would suffer under such a scenario, grew in general.

 

According to the results of the last week of June, major indexes closed in a combined way, only NASDAQ fixed increase.

 

Nevertheless, IBD 100 grew for 0.7% within the last week of month and gained against a broad market.

[Office rat 10]

Review of the US stock market by July, 3

 

When major indexes experience a strong decline, it causes serious concerns about the market prospectives.

 

But when this decline happens in a low volume with slight losses among leading growth stocks, it tells about the possibility of a false alert.

 

Stocks sharply rebounded on Thursday, but the volume was typically low for a session before a long weekend.

 

NYSE index was leading with its 3% decline; S&P 500 sank below for 2.9%; NASDAQ lost 2.7% and Dow – 2.6%.

 

The volume was below NYSE for 25% even after the exchange decided to prolong its trading for 15 minutes. NYSE referred to a poor order execution. NASDAQ volume decreased slightly.

 

On Thursday IBD 100 experienced a decline as of 2.9 %. The week's index of growth stocks lost 2.3% - similarly to week's loss of NASDAQ.

 

The week closed with the 2.2% decline of NYSE index; S&P 500 lost 2.5% and Dow lost 1.9%.

 

Negative news established the background in the beginning of the day before the opening of the market. Labor Department with the reference to payroll journal reported about occupation decline as of 467 000, which strongly exceeds the forecast. This report supposes tough problems with consumer expenditures.

 

Labor report caused movement to protective assets. US dollar consolidated. Gold, which often moves against USD, declined. The value of August gold futures fell for 10,30$, or 1.1 %, up to 931$ per ounce.

 

Simultaneously, oil price went down approximately for 4% within a day.

 

Oil, car manufacturing, mechanic engineering and retails stocks declined the most. Data about work positions created a steadily negative mood, even after a surprisingly strong report of factory contracts.

In May factory contracts increased for 1.2% and easily overrun analytics' forecasts. It was the most serious increase in the year and third growth for four months.

 

But the market neglected this news.

 

Though leading growth stocks performed steadily.

 

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) lost 1.61% and got down to 58.45. Other factors reduced a negative effect: the volume was lower than average for 17%; the share stayed above its day's moving average value.

 

One of the share worthing monitoring is probably Chinese American Dairy (ADY). Though on Thursday it decreased for 1.8% in the volume under average, it builds the main profile of a high, outlined flag – pattern which sometimes causes enhanced increase. Potential entrance point is 44.10.

[Office rat 10]

 

The review of the US market by July, 10

 

 

If the rule is true that the market clams down before reversal starts, then, Friday's behavior of stocks gives us a hope for a growth. :crap:

 

Major indexes closed in a combined way. The volume fell down and was languid for two major exchanges on Thursday. Trading on NASDAQ was even less dynamic than it was during a preholiday session on July 2.

 

Leading growth stocks did not move up or down notably.

 

In general price movement was very slight on the market.

 

On Friday NASDAQ grew for 0.2 %. Dow and S&P 500 each added 0.4 % whereas NYSE declined for 0.7 %.

 

IBD 100 added 0.4 %. According to the results of the first July week, the index of growth stocks fell down for 2.4 % and thus it followed broad indexes.

 

All major indexes stayed lower than its 50-days' average value. S&P 500 and NYSE are still very close to their 200 days' average value. Dow got lower than its 200 days' average value whereas NASDAQ was definitely higher.

 

NASDAQ is still a leader among indexes in 2009 year; its growth amounts to 11 % for the year. Technologies contributed to its leadership position. It is proved by the fact that Philadelphia semiconductor index grew for 22% this year.

 

On Friday the value of technology-containing stocks were pushed by Goldman Sachs' forecast. Reuters reported that David C. Bailey from Goldman Sachs raised the evaluation of the US computer manufacturers' segment by changing “neutral” estimation into “attractive”.

 

In the “note for Client” Bailey emphasized that hardware segment which is depressed now will be No 1 for investments when economy recovers.

 

He raised the estimation of Dell (DELL) and Seagate Technology (STX) from “neutral” to “buy”.

 

Due to the news, Dell (DELL) slowly grew for 0.07 up to 13.22 in a double volume. Seagate added 0.47 up to 10 with the volume grow as of 37%.

 

These two shares have EPS rank lower than 35 which means that the profit of around two of every three shares grow with higher rates.

 

It was a successful day for many lagging members of the market.

 

IBD toolmaker was leading among 197 industry groups.

 

The stocks which are fuel oil price-sensitive - air companies and carriers - were successful as well.

 

Oil prices closed the week below $60, the first time ever for around two months.

 

On Friday Chevron (CVX) warned about its decline in revenue.

 

The last days of the week the market was calm and upward trend is still under pressure.

 

Investors are recommended to be as careful as possible until the situation is clear rather than to guess the future movement of the market.

As for now, upward tendency will be renewed or the market will move to correction.

[Office rat 10]

 

:fight:

 

Stock markets demonstrated the third week of growth in succession, but the growth is getting down

 

Whereas economic news was better than it was expected on Friday, the market did not make profit upon this news.

 

The stocks stayed within the narrow trading range and closed the session in a combined way.

 

NYSE was leading for the second day in succession and added 0.6 %. Dow and S&P 500 slightly changed for 0.2 % and 0.1 % respectively. Nasdaq lost 0.3 %.

 

NYSE volume grew whereas Nasdaq volume lost.

 

A dull trading allowed NASDAQ to avoid a “distribution day”.

 

On Friday IBD 100 declined for 0.1 %. According to the week results, the index of growth stocks with the highest ranking fell down for 0.4 % and was behind the major indexes which grew a little.

For the last time upward trend continued on a weak basis because economic data indicated decline but weaker than “it was expected”.

Until a certain moment it seemed to be enough.

Though on Friday NASDAQ bulls demanded something more significant: what about signs of authentic growth?

 

The answer of economy was languid enough.

 

Decline of GDP in the second quarter was “less than expected”.

 

Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index demonstrated the highest level starting from September but this message was only regarded as warning call given prior to publishing ISM index. On Monday ISM index will be published.

 

According to GDP and government data, consumer expenses declined below the expectations.

 

Market analysts believe that a languid recovering is more probable than an acute recovering of V-type.

 

Among industry groups the stocks of regional auto dealers demonstrated a serious increase on Friday whereas the stocks of gold-mining sector consolidated growth.

 

The stocks of RV (auto company) traditionally used to be early drivers prior to recovering of the economy but a tough pressure of credit and petrol prices conduce to a negative environment.

Drew Industries (DW), the manufacturer of RV components, added 24 % in a triple volume on Friday. They also reported about the profit of 12 cents per share against a supposed loss in 6 cents. The sales were also above the forecast.

 

Thor Industries (THO) — the manufacturer of buses and auto parts – added 11 % in the volume above average more than in four times.

 

Both shares have weak EPS ratings but the group can perform as economic barometer and demonstrate signs of recovering.

 

On the bottom side, medical shares were negative leaders among main losers of the day.

 

Several shares of IBD 100 were winning reports back.

 

HMS Holdings (HMSY) declined for 6% notwithstanding its report on Q2 level.

 

Two shares, which reported on late Thursday, declined within Friday session. Vistaprint (VPRT) lost 4 % and Synaptics (SYNA) fell down for 33 %.

 

McAfee (MFE) software manufacturer won the most part of Thursday loss and its growth amounted almost to 5%.

Summing up: Friday, 13 of July, was an extremely hard day for the market and analysis – closing of month, week and crucial data for the USA GDP for the second quarter – all this enhanced market uncertainty sharply.

It is important that the last 5 months (starting from March 9) – we have a continuous growth of stock market. June correction was not successful because 10% is not the figure. Though the basis is still very weak - but it is still declining.

A deep correction is still vital, current rates of purchasing are not attractive.

[Office rat 10]

The market demonstrated a strong growth of volume over the week closure. Up-trend of the market is seen again

On Friday the market canceled transfer to correction and returned to up-trend state; broad indices showed new 10-months' maximum values.

 

S&P 500 and NYSE were leaders of growth and each added 1.9%. Dow index followed them with the growth 1.7% and NASDAQ with 1.6%.

 

The index of the best growth stocks, IBD 100, grew for 1.7% on Friday and 1.2% according to the results of the week.

 

The volume of major indices sharply increased because of mass expiry of options enhanced trading volume.

 

Up-ward trend has renewed its movement. According to our system of analysis, buying of growth stocks is quite acceptable, when they leave correct basis or other key points (for example, after bouncing from 10weeks' average value)

Still there are the reasons to be careful. As we told the last week, last bull markets which directly followed large bear markets, resulted in large deep corrections lasting longer than the last current up-ward tendency.

 

S&P 500 still has five distribution days last weeks though Friday took one day away for NYSE.

Stocks started their increase at once on Friday's opening in the list of all four major indexes.

Positive news about real estate market pushed the share.

 

National Association of real estate agents informed that after market sales of houses moved up for 7.2% in July. It was the fourth growth in succession. News was above estimations which went around 2% growth.

 

Stocks of house-building industry sharply increased and the growth amounted to 5% approximately. While shares with weak fundamental properties such as Toll Bros. (TOL) and KB Home (KBH) each added around 3%; the stocks made it in the volume under average.

 

The best performance was demonstrated by the member of IBD 100 list – Brazil company Gafisa(GFA). It made a beeline in volume for 10%, twice as higher as average. The whole rating of this company is 99 – the best possible rating.

 

Though stocks are far from the point of correct entrance.

 

The market was also supported by speech of Federal Reserve Chairman. According to him, economy's return to growth within the nearest time is quite probable.

 

Oil prices went up to highs of 2009 year.

 

Expectations and forecast

 

Despite an extensive growth and optimism of Friday, general market situation is evaluated in terms of instability and high volatility. A considerable 2days' decline followed by a strong growth – all this often points its vicinity to the market's peak and as a result, to reversal.

 

I still expect a durable deep correction. Next week trace how market behaves as strong news is published – in particular, books of durable goods and consumer trust.

[Office rat 10]

October 17, 2009. Energy Market Weekly Review

 

On Friday, oil prices reached their maximum level, of the last 12 months, on Friday the price of the barrel of oil rose by $0.95 to the level of $78.53 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, so oil prices over the past eight trading days have increased by 12,9%, thus for the past week by 9,4%.

 

If we consider the fundamental factors carefully, we can see that they show that the energy market instruments are gaining strength. US dollar falls rapidly against the basic currencies basket, investors seek refuge from possible and further decline of the US dollar purchasing power and find it, in particular, in oil.

 

Investors express extremely high optimism due to emerging of macro-economic data. On Friday, the Federal Reserve reported an increase in industrial production in September by 0.7%, the rate exceeded the experts consensus forecast.

 

Industrial production growth has given confidence to traders, because this field of business consumes about 65% of raw materials in the country. The Ministry of Energy has given information on commercial stocks of crude oil and petroleum products on Thursday, they can be characterized as fairly positive. For the week that ended on October the 9th, commercial crude oil stocks increased by 0.4 million barrels, whereas petrol stocks have decreased by 5.2 million barrels; the Ministry data showed the most significant decrease in petrol stocks over a year. Petroleum processing sector's capacity declined from 85% to 80.9%, due to scheduled maintenance of part of US oil refineries. Perhaps the declining trend in petroleum and distillate will persist for several weeks, which would also support price levels.

 

US Banks oil traders show rather aggressive interest in oil over the last months of this year. In their opinion the price of a barrel could go up to $ 95 by the end of 2009, if the US government, Europe and Asia continue to stimulate national economies. Yet OPEC is not going to increase production volumes of raw materials after significant cuts, that will also support prices. Nearest OPEC cartel meeting is scheduled for December 22 in Angola, it is clear that by this date, we can see a few more bursts of buyers activity.

 

Oil found support level around $ 75 and due to the unusually low temperature in October settled in the north-eastern part of the United States, oil traders expect increased demand for heating oil by US consumers as well as speculators. DTN-Meteorlogix predicts storms coming in the north of the US in the beginning of a new week, that would support the speculators. In the short-term period Brent crude oil will stay below $76.2 with a possible rebound to $72.0 and further to $79.98.

 

 

Dmitry Stepanov, GK Broco analyst

 

Learn about our new partnership program on our site

[brownsfan019 17]

This 'weekly' analysis isn't quite weekly.

 

[Office rat 10]

you are right, but we will fix that so it will be weekly

[Office rat 10]

:missy:

 

EUR – growing potential waning

 

In the first three weeks of the year the single currency lost 1.2% against USD. EUR/USD decline is a consequence of US market weakness, which is a leading indicator of the economic recovery pace. World markets remained pessimistic in the third week of the current year. Asian markets are falling for over ten days, oil and metal prices go down. Company reports of many firms and banks for the fourth quarter of 2009 does not inspire market participants either.

Results and Current Situation

Technical picture of EUR trading in the last quarter of 2009 showed that market participants were not ready to buy EUR above1.47-1.48 area. As a result, the fourth quarter trend signaled January EUR/USD decline towards 1.4150-1.4250 area. Following the results of the last year we see, that buying of currencies dependant on raw materials export has brought AUD/USD and NZD/USD to the levels, above which growth could not be objectively justified . Last week AUD/USD could not break through the 0.92-0.93 area, which would open way towards 0.95 level, the market sank till 0.90 instead. NZD/USD has not passed 0.72-0.73 area and finished the week below 0.71 near 0.70.

In the end of the year GBP/USD had support of GBP buying for EUR, which was reflected in the EUR/GBP trend Nevertheless, last week EUR/GBP could not get hold above 1.62-1.63, this would propel the market toward the 1.65. The market closed at 1.61 USD/CAD has not fallen relative of the1.0300 level, which would signal further way down to 1.0200 and 1.0150. The market has grown above 1.0550 on oil market decline.

Still the tendency of major currencies decline had more to do with JPY appreciation, rather than with USD growth. The 1 quarter of the year is a traditional repatriation period of for the JPY. JPY has growth against all currencies in the market. For the week USD/JPY has fallen from 0.91 below 0.90, EUR/JPY sank from 130.50 till 127.00, and GBP/JPY from 147.60 below 145.00. AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, and CAD/JPY also lowered.

 

Expectations, Prognosis

 

In the January 25-29 period currency market will remain pressured through JPY strengthening and doubts concerning EUR growth. Corporate reports will continue to play the role of an expectations factor on the market. In the beginning of the new trading week we can see some potential for EUR/USD recovery, still in second half of the week further decline is most probable.

 

Major currency pairs range:

 

EUR/USD – 1.3850-1.4188 potential decline

GBP/USD – 1.5888-1.6231 potential decline

USD/CHF – 1.0331-1.0688 potential decline

USD/JPY – 0.8831-0.9188 potential decline

AUD/USD – 0.8831-0.9131 potential decline

USD/CAD – 1.0450-1.0731 potential decline

Brent – 69.88-73.88, potential decline

 

Broco Group chief analyst Vladislav Gurov

[brownsfan019 17]

you are right, but we will fix that so it will be weekly

 

So when you said on 10/20 that you would fix that, what exactly did you mean?

 

Maybe quarterly is what you meant to say and not weekly?

 

I really don't see the point of saying to expect this weekly and then you just randomly (and I stress randomly) appear with some text.

[Office rat 10]

EUR below 2008 closing level

In January currency market was focused on financial problems of European countries and their budget deficits on the first place. Late last week we have learnt that Standard & Poor's does not count British banks among the most low risks banking systems / Weakness of major American stock indexes and oil prices below $75 a barrel boosted USD growth by the end of the third week of January . US fourth quarter GDP data also contributed to dollar's advance. GDP has growth 5,7% against the third quarter of 2009 year on year, US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Commerce reported. This numbers turned out much better, than analysts expected.

Results and Current Situation

 

In 2009 the major trend was appreciation of currencies dependant of raw materials export (AUD and NZD) and USD decline. This tendency has created a misleading picture of EUR strength. In fact AUD and NZD were also often bought for EUR. Absence of objective basis for EUR/USD growth in November resulted in market going below 1.50. Technical trend of the last quarter of 2009 - lowering from 1.4350 - sent EUR/USD towards the 2008 closing - 1.40. It was only owing to EUR/GBP cross rate trade against EUR, that GBP/USD held near the 1.6150 -1.6350 area in January . EUR/GBP decline dynamics did not reflect the USD growth, but was a EUR depreciation factor, this allowed GBP/USD to stay at 1.60 by the end of January trade.

Currencies dependant on raw materials export - AUD and NZD - declined from key levels. AUD closed below 0.90 at 0. 8835, аnd NZD finished the month at 0.70. Closing above 0.88 and 0.70 came as a result of EUR/AUD EUR/NZD cross rate lowering and gold sinking below 1100 an ounce. USD/CAD grew to 1.0705 on oil decline.

January EUR/USD closing shows, that for the period from the beginning of 2009 USD added 0,78%, from 1.3960 to 1.3850. USD appreciation is not yet big enough for EUR/USD to fall substantially in the first February week.

Expectations, Prognosis

 

In the February 1-5 period currency market will have a hard time choosing further direction. Market participant might wish to take profit on some long USD positions in the beginning of the month. Fourth quarter financial statements of banks and companies will become a major factor influencing trading decisions. Traders will pay special attention to JPY movements. In January USD/JPY kept moving downward and closed in 0.90 filter between 0.9012 and 0.9031.

 

Major currency pairs range:

 

EUR/USD – 1.3788-1.4095, attempts to grow, potential decline

GBP/USD – 1.3788-1.4095, attempts to grow, potential decline

USD/CHF – 1.0431-1.0712, attempts to decline, potential growth

USD/JPY – 0.8731-0.9188 attempts to grow, potential decline

AUD/USD – 8750-9088 attempts to grow, potential decline

USD/CAD – 1.0431-1.0712, attempts to decline, potential growth

Brent – 68.88-73.50 consolidation

[Office rat 10]

Currency Market Review 2/06/10 - 2/12/10

 

EUR below 2008 closing

The first February week ended with considerable EUR lowering and USD growth. Banks' buying USD against EUR, AUD and NZD in the end of the week was spurred by 5% decline of indexes on Lisbon and Madrid exchanges. Continuing concerns over swelling budget deficits and sovereign debts of EU member countries bolsters banks' appetite for USD. Currency market participants don't take EUR for a serious alternative to USD. Markititraxx Europe Index climbing to the 9-week maximum has further propelled USD against EUR. Michal Gomez, a senior vice president at Pimco (Pacific Investment Management Co) one of the largest investment companies in the world, advices to keep away from EUR, Euro zone and some of the developing European countries’ currencies.

Results and Current Situation

During February 1- 5 trading week EUR has lost 1.44% against USD. EUR/USD slid two figures lower from 1.3850 level to 1.3650 by session closing Friday. Increased USD buying resulted in lowering of the currencies dependant on raw materials export, AUD and NZD. They have lost 100 points. At the same time CAD remained relatively strong against USD. USD/CAD growth for the week comprised 10 points. CAD received support form the oil market, which managed to stay above the $70 level.

GBP turned out to be the biggest looser last week. By trade closing on February 5th GBP has lost 2.15%, which was reflected in GBP/USD decline of 345 points, from 1.5975 to 1.5630.

The major factor of last week's trade was a tendency of decline not only against USD but also against JPY. Growing interest in buying USD against other currencies could not hinder JPY appreciation. By the end of the week JPY added 0.034% against USD. USD/JPY has gone from 0.9025 down to 0.8935. The general JPY growth against other currencies in the market surpassed USD growth. This factor is a strong signal of further weakening of EUR, GBP, AUD and NZD.

 

Expectations, Prognosis

In the February 8-12 period currency market will remain pressured by increased buying of Japanese and American currencies . Possible attempts of EUR, GBP and other currencies buying in the first half of the week will be countered with large JPY purchases by cross rates. JPY buying will intensify EUR decline and USD growth.

Major currency pairs range:

EUR/USD – 1,3350-1,3769, decline

GBP/USD – 1,3350-1,3769, decline

USD/CHF – 1,0669-1,0888, growth

USD/JPY – 0,8831-0,8969, declining consolidation

AUD/USD – 0,8331-0,8769, decline

USD/CAD – 1,0631-1,0869 growing consolidation

Brent – 68,88-71,50 consolidation, range

Broco Group chief analyst Vladislav Gurov

[brownsfan019 17]

The weekly analysis guy is back!

 

[Office rat 10]

The weekly analysis guy is back!

 

 

Does it make you frustrate? :crap:

[brownsfan019 17]

Does it make you frustrate? :crap:

 

I'm just pointing out that your thread entitled 'weekly analysis' has been anything but weekly, even after you re-confirmed a 2nd time that it would be weekly.

 

So whatever your goal is here, it's really not providing much use to anyone as your updates are in fact completely random and if anyone was silly enough to rely on this, they would have to wait hoping to see you appear again at some random point in the future.

 

Maybe you should start a new thread entitled 'Completely Random Analysis'.

[Office rat 10]

Thank you, guy, for you care,

 

But I think we will manage.