Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

gassah

Markets

Recommended Posts

Looks as though Heating Oil is coming up through the Primary Buy Zone (PBZ) for a potential spring change in trend (CIT) on the 18d. The ETF UHN is available.

 

Rob

5aa70eba09c0e_HeatingOil.thumb.png.3533300aaebc9cbf67d4071a41b6fd28.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I thought EURGBP was an example of an 18d pullback with a 5d Repo (reverse potential- continuation spring) with an entry by the arrow as it came above the PBZ (primary buy zone) and/or recent bar highs.

 

Rob

5aa70eba5e93c_EURGBPRepo.thumb.png.24e7bc74df2f6e1fb86bb34a1b1e63da.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

EURUSD came out of the 18d PBZ following a little 5d spring. In Market Analyst the 5d structure looks more like a spring following 3 Drives to a Low (not shown). It came close to a diagonal terminal in MA but the AB/CD swings were off by 30% time-wise on the 290m chart (not shown).

 

Rob

EURUSD.thumb.PNG.a9c092cf1f5f75aad9ecfb99a72b2b2c.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Gassah,

 

Great work.. I just wanted your opinion on the S&P. I've attached a chart with what I'm looking at right now.

 

Technically the 18D line has turned up and we have a +2 LCC. Now, if I get an LCC-O I'm tempted to short this whilst keeping in mind that this structure could turn into a 5D Repo before it hits my AD Target of 702.

 

My concern is the fundamental news that's just come out with regards to the Fed's proposed treasury and toxic asset purchases. Whilst technicals are still pointing to the bear side the fundamentals are looking a bit better with bullish sentiment quite strong at the mo. These two divergent views may be enough for the market to follow the Repo script rather than a clean breakdown in price.

 

I'm thinking, go short with 1/4 - 1/2 the normal position size and see what happens or stay on the sidlines for a 5D Repo if following the short script.

 

How are you seeing the current play in the S&P?

 

Cheers

lote

5aa70ebb29219_SP19thMarch.thumb.jpg.2e27837476f7f6398e06e563c68aad5a.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How are you seeing the current play in the S&P?

lote

 

Hi lote,

 

I'm giving more weight to the possible spring change in trend pattern after the conviction bar through the PBZ on Thursday, and will look to buy stocks on a light volume pullback.

 

Rob

SP500.thumb.PNG.d5e25c66ee4facfae5c00d83bc20e416.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Rob,

Will look with great interest and see how this all develops.

lote

 

lote,

 

I try to remain flexible, entertaining both sides, and am not shutting out the bearish scenarios. I'm taking it day to day and would prefer more information before re-taking a position at the moment.

 

Rob

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Comparing SPY's downswings there's a 17% increase in average volume and a 14% decline in average bar ranges and, although not dramatic, this is a check mark in the accumulation column, IMO.

 

Rob

5aa70ebb788f5_SPYVolumes.thumb.png.8e1774baeb6981fbe15f23af5e916ffa.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Rob,

 

I think it's wise to keep both scripts in mind for now given the merky picture. The way I see it I'll consider a bullish script if three scenarios play out:

 

1. Valid WPC's above the 18D POC.

 

2. Decisive WRB through the 18D POC (This could happen next week when Geithner announces his plans on how he's going to deal with toxic assests on Bank balance sheets. Having said that, I don't generally like taking WRB's with news but Geithner's announcement is fundamentally very key and could tip the balance in favour of the bulls.)

 

3. Stable +5 LCC line pressure that looks well bid through the 18D POC.

 

We haven't experienced offsetting support at the weekly level yet for a trend change. The S&P reveresed near the 660 level, when looking at the weekly there's still some swing freedom left with support at the weekly of 600. It's just one more piece of the puzzle that's making me favour the short side for now but as you said, more info would be nice.

 

Cheers

Lote

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Something else to consider using one of Ray's Rules of Congestion is that a close above value suggests a move to the other side of value (80% probability). For those without Market Profile these levels can be approximated using 33 and 67%. It isn't a large move on the daily but on weekly or monthly charts they can be substantial.

 

Rob

Value.thumb.png.ba6fc09221b55917b5f63e1553da62cd.png

Value2.thumb.png.3fbd58c48ab015b63b053cd91fb31ac3.png

Edited by gassah
added 80% probability

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ray introduced us to Constance Brown's technique of finding support and resistance using fibonacci ratios. http://www.amazon.com/Fibonacci-Analysis-Bloomberg-Market-Essentials/dp/1576602613/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1237668917&sr=1-1

 

I don't have the book with me but I'll try to explain how she makes the calculations. She always uses 38.2/50/61.8. To find resistance levels begin at a low and always project higher from the same low. This helps take into account expanding and contracting markets. Don't begin from a high for resistance.

 

If the low has a tail don't use the exact low because tails represent emotional buying and selling and don't count unless that level is tested. Otherwise use another nearby low, close or open. In this example all three levels were taken from the March 5th low. The first projection up should have the 50% level hit a wide range bar or a gap. It should end at a point where the move down really gets going. This is usually not the swing high point. It is usually a wide range bar high, like 2/10's bar. Look to the left of the calculated levels and if they are done correctly they should have found support in the past.

 

The second set goes up to another level and repeats the process, starting from the same low. The second one stops at the high of January 7th. We are looking for levels of confluence to mark resistance levels. The 50% line from the first extension and the 38.2 from the second overlap marking a level at 775. The third set is dropped from the Nov 5th high and provides confluence at three levels (red rectangle) or 797-803.

 

That's my understanding.

 

Rob

BrownSP500.thumb.png.469071d41880b01993beec2c0ff30c82.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The SP500 didn't accept beyond the maximum extension so it didn't negate the possibility of a spring. It then rallied with conviction above the PBZ (primary buy zone - bottom 1/8th range - 12.5% division) signaling a buy and suggesting a move to the PSZ (primary sell zone - top 1/8th range - 87.5%). It stopped (so far) at the bottom of value of the congestion in Jan-Feb.

 

Common early places for the downtrend to resume are the 50-67% divisions or the RC (running correction zone), which is in the same vicinity. We aren't there yet so I'm not going to worry about it.

 

The current setup is the buy signal and I will look to buy stocks on a pullback in the indexes. A common area for the pullback to complete is back in the PBZ, though a deeper test of the March lows would still be bullish, IMO.

 

And BTW, I'm not expressing Ray's opinions so don't assign my errors to him.

 

Rob

5aa70ebcb18ef_SP5003-24.thumb.png.a65323c49bfa859603bfe732f6d76806.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For the first time I dropped down a couple of time frames to the 15m 18d chart and attempted to make use of the Opening Gap Rule, anticipating an intraday upthrust and the start of a reaction on the daily for the SP500.

 

The first chart shows the rally entering the value area of the Jan-Feb range and hitting the POC. I thought this was a likely area of resistance.

 

The second chart shows how the swing highs moved farther and farther away from the overbought line of the linear regression channel suggesting a slowing of momentum.

 

The last chart shows the upthrust, the gap and penetration of the PSZ and the maximum extension where the stop is placed.

 

Rob

5aa70ebea3714_SP500POC.thumb.png.f47c01b0e02dd7e5c61ba3fa9f84f79d.png

5aa70ebeb0b14_SP500Momentum.thumb.png.60ef03e888a9c948b965ba3c34fb5f5f.png

5aa70ebebcb96_SP500OpenGap.thumb.png.b1c2a5eabff7fd94d7e56a4e6d540d6f.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was stopped out on the SP500 short-term trade. If there was a mistake it was probably trading against the buy signal on the daily, IMO.

 

Here's one of the five forex trades in progress. Each has had the first 1/3 position taken off at the 50% level. I tried Ray's 'double the stop' exit for the first third position and noticed that it was often at the middle of the range so I save myself a calculation and use the 50% level/POC. The 50%/POC area seems high odds also because price is drawn there like a magnet. With the first third taken off around the double the stop area, and keeping the stop on the remaining two thirds at the original location, pretty much guarantees a breakeven trade.

 

A long position was taken in GBPUSD on 3/12. It bounced off the PBZ (daily chart) and I'm anticipating a change in trend. This is aggressive in the sense that the monthly line is down as is the weekly trend. OTOH, it was at monthly support and the 13w line was significantly oversold close to mean + 4 standard deviations. The spreadsheet shows the 13w impulse swings and the calculations. The 44.25 was excluded because it is an outlier.

 

The plan, having sold 1/3 at the 50% level, is to sell the middle third core position at the PSZ, and to hold the final position for a potential change in trend higher, and potentially adding back to the position if the trend does change.

Monthly.thumb.png.1e30f176f63e0138e4c3ff7d40789242.png

Weekly.thumb.png.cf3edd0d292b707507ca67ce24298ddb.png

Excel.thumb.png.750a5fdcc689e2d206d94600ad8e28f6.png

Daily.thumb.png.9e7c379592d58f01446d9b73e24cca1c.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

USDCAD upthrusted on 3/9 allowing an entry within the next few days. A conviction bar below "A" or below the PSZ off the daily or 290m chart was possible. The volume on the upthrust was <92% of the bar at A and increases the odds of success. The weekly (13w) line was extended at mean+6 standard deviations indicating a likely change in line direction with an attempt at a trend change on the daily. My sample size is small so I didn't place a lot of weight on this.

 

The weekly and monthly charts are interesting because they might be forming a V Bottom. There's a WPC (whole point count) above B and the most common zones for it to fall to and reverse are the 50% level and PBZ of AB.

 

Ray has a tool for estimating when a range has enough cause built up to support a breakout. He calls it the Market Profile Advance Warning. There's a relationship between the number of bars in a swing leading up to a range, the number of hits at the POC (size of the range) and the maximum retracement. He calls the swing the IPM (initial price movement). I like to think of it as a flagpole and the base as the flag. If the cause is 0.4 or greater then odds favor it is time for a normal change in trend. USDCAD was at 0.89 at the upthrust further justifying an entry.

Daily.thumb.png.350d96d4448d60c5d3d0dd72d8ec11a6.png

Weekly.thumb.png.a3a7d6ed578020074135a775471bbf7e.png

Cause.thumb.png.b5d1c45959bcccf19e328a05cca1569d.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good news for MarketDelta users. The latest version allows Market Profile creation for any highlighted times using TPOs or volume. The Jan-Feb congestion is proving difficult to get past.

MarketDelta.thumb.png.4b3614dde14969a4307ad7ba3e7fe102.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I was playing around with a buy scenario for the SP500....

 

The star is 4-5 trading days out at the 4-14/15 seasonal low in the 5d impulse/18d corrective time & price window where it should meet MIDAS near the PBZ and spring the March 30 low. Right.

5aa70ec226416_SP500Scenario.thumb.png.9762bcb6f93cfc256a8252cacff50725.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

gassah,

 

Regarding Rays method, I don't understand how the POC hit count is made, since the POC can move as the range after the flagpole builds out. Is the calculation basically only performed at any one given point in time?

 

For instance, take a look at point B in chart #3. Assuming the POC was not drastically different from what is currently shown at that time, there were appromimately 1/2 the number of POC hits (18).

 

Therefore the cause = 18/23*.57 = .45 (still a buy)?

 

Thanks in advance for clarification.

 

snowbird

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 11th July 2025.   Demand For Gold Rises As Trump Announces Tariffs!   Gold prices rose significantly throughout the week as investors took advantage of the 2.50% lower entry level. Investors also return to the safe-haven asset as the US trade policy continues to escalate. As a result, investors are taking a more dovish tone. The ‘risk-off’ appetite is also something which can be seen within the stock market. The NASDAQ on Thursday took a 0.90% dive within only 30 minutes.   Trade Tensions Escalate President Trump has been teasing with new tariffs throughout the week. However, the tariffs were confirmed on Thursday. A 35% tariff on Canadian imports starting August 1st, along with 50% tariffs on copper and goods from Brazil. Some experts are advising that Brazil has been specifically targeted due to its association with the BRICS.   However, the President has not directly associated the tariffs with BRICS yet. According to President Trump, Brazil is targeting US technology companies and carrying out a ‘witch hunt’against former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, a close ally who is currently facing prosecution for allegedly attempting to overturn the 2022 Brazilian election.   Although Brazil is one of the largest and fastest-growing economies in the Americas, it is not the main concern for investors. Investors are more concerned about Tariffs on Canada. The White House said it will impose a 35% tariff on Canadian imports, effective August 1st, raised from the earlier 25% rate. This covers most goods, with exceptions under USMCA and exemptions for Canadian companies producing within the US.   It is also vital for investors to note that Canada is among the US;’s top 3 trading partners. The increase was justified by Trump citing issues like the trade deficit, Canada’s handling of fentanyl trafficking, and perceived unfair trade practices.   The President is also threatening new measures against the EU. These moves caused US and European stock futures to fall nearly 1%, while the Dollar rose and commodity prices saw small gains. However, the main benefactor was Silver and Gold, which are the two best-performing metals of the day.   How Will The Fed Impact Gold? The FOMC indicated that the number of members warming up to the idea of interest rate cuts is increasing. If the Fed takes a dovish tone, the price of Gold may further rise. In the meantime, the President pushing for a 3% rate cut sparked talk of a more dovish Fed nominee next year and raised worries about future inflation.   Meanwhile, jobless claims dropped for the fourth straight week, coming in better than expected and supporting the view that the labour market remains strong after last week’s solid payroll report. Markets still expect two rate cuts this year, but rate futures show most investors see no change at the next Fed meeting. Gold is expected to finish the week mostly flat.       Gold 15-Minute Chart     If the price of Gold increases above $3,337.50, buy signals are likely to materialise again. However, the price is currently retracing, meaning traders are likely to wait for regained momentum before entering further buy trades. According to HSBC, they expect an average price of $3,215 in 2025 (up from $3,015) and $3,125 in 2026, with projections showing a volatile range between $3,100 and $3,600   Key Takeaway Points: Gold Rises on Safe-Haven Demand. Gold gained as investors reacted to rising trade tensions and market volatility. Canada Tariffs Spark Concern. A 35% tariff on Canadian imports drew attention due to Canada’s key trade role. Fed Dovish Shift Supports Gold. Growing expectations of rate cuts and Trump’s push for a 3% cut boosted the gold outlook. Gold Eyes Breakout Above $3,337.5. Price is consolidating; a move above $3,337.50 could trigger new buy signals. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Back in the early 2000s, Netflix mailed DVDs to subscribers.   It wasn’t sexy—but it was smart. No late fees. No driving to Blockbuster.   People subscribed because they were lazy. Investors bought the stock because they realized everyone else is lazy too.   Those who saw the future in that red envelope? They could’ve caught a 10,000%+ move.   Another story…   Back in the mid-2000s, Amazon launched Prime.   It wasn’t flashy—but it was fast.   Free two-day shipping. No minimums. No hassle.   People subscribed because they were impatient. Investors bought the stock because they realized everyone hates waiting.   Those who saw the future in that speedy little yellow button? They could’ve caught another 10,000%+ move.   Finally…   Back in 2011, Bitcoin was trading under $10.   It wasn’t regulated—but it worked.   No bank. No middleman. Just wallet to wallet.   People used it to send money. Investors bought it because they saw the potential.   Those who saw something glimmering in that strange orange coin? They could’ve caught a 100,000%+ move.   The people who made those calls weren’t fortune tellers. They just noticed something simple before others did.   A better way. A quiet shift. A small edge. An asymmetric bet.   The red envelope fixed late fees. The yellow button fixed waiting. The orange coin gave billions a choice.   Of course, these types of gains are rare. And they happen only once in a blue moon. That’s exactly why it’s important to notice when the conditions start to look familiar.   Not after the move. Not once it's on CNBC. But in the quiet build-up— before the surface breaks.   Enter the Blue Button Please read more here: https://altucherconfidential.com/posts/netflix-amazon-bitcoin-blue  Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/ 
    • What These Attacks Look Like There are several ways you could get hacked. And the threats compound by the day.   Here’s a quick rundown:   Phishing: Fake emails from your “bank.” Click the link, give your password—game over.   Ransomware: Malware that locks your files and demands crypto. Pay up, or it’s gone.   DDoS: Overwhelm a website with traffic until it crashes. Like 10,000 bots blocking the door. Often used by nations.   Man-in-the-Middle: Hackers intercept your messages on public WiFi and read or change them.   Social Engineering: Hackers pose as IT or drop infected USB drives labeled “Payroll.”   You don’t need to be “important” to be a target.   You just need to be online.   What You Can Do (Without Buying a Bunker) You don’t have to be tech-savvy.   You just need to stop being low-hanging fruit.   Here’s how:   Use a YubiKey (physical passkey device) or Authenticator app – Ditch text message 2FA. SIM swaps are real. Hackers often have people on the inside at telecom companies.   Use a password manager (with Yubikey) – One unique password per account. Stop using your dog’s name.   Update your devices – Those annoying updates patch real security holes. Use them.   Back up your files – If ransomware hits, you don’t want your important documents held hostage.   Avoid public WiFi for sensitive stuff – Or use a VPN.   Think before you click – Emails that feel “urgent” are often fake. Go to the websites manually for confirmation.   Consider Starlink in case the internet goes down – I think it’s time for me to make the leap. Don’t Panic. Prepare. (Then Invest.)   I spent an hour in that basement bar reading about cyberattacks—and watching real-world systems fall apart like dominos.   The internet going down used to be an inconvenience. Now, it’s a warning.   Cyberwar isn’t coming. It’s here.   And the next time your internet goes out, it might not just be your router.   Don’t panic. Prepare.   And maybe keep a backup plan in your back pocket. Like a local basement bar with good bourbon—and working WiFi.   As usual, we’re on the lookout for more opportunities in cybersecurity. Stay tuned.   Author: Chris Campbell (AltucherConfidential) Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/   
    • DUMBSHELL:  re the automation of corruption ---  200,000 "Science Papers" in academic journal database PubMed may have been AI-generated with errors, hallucinations and false sourcing 
    • Does any crypto exchanges get banned in your country? How's about other as Bybit, Kraken, MEXC, OKX?
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.