This Looks Like a Very Interesting Way to Track Market Sentiment in Realtime.

[popstocks 10]

I just signed up for this funky artificial intelligence driven by real traders thingy

 

"OpenFutur.es plans to harness the power of large numbers of participating traders to accurately predict movement of the S&P 500."

 

http://www.openfutur.es/

 

It's free and relatively new, and I have no affiliation just think it looks promising.

Anyone using this, or similar apps?

[gandalf33 10]

Considering that 80% traders are losing money, I don't think the "large numbers of participants" will "predict" the movements correctly.

[popstocks 10]

Considering that 80% traders are losing money, I don't think the "large numbers of participants" will "predict" the movements correctly.

 

Yeah but the system doesn't treat everyone's calls as equal, the point is it tracks a bunch of people and decides which to fade and which are accurate and weights them by different factors to arrive at what is the most probable trade,,, so i gather.

[sevensa 10]

Considering that 80% traders are losing money, I don't think the "large numbers of participants" will "predict" the movements correctly.

 

If 80% people predict the direction incorrectly, wouldn't that be a high probability signal to fade their prediction?

[gandalf33 10]

Yeah but the system doesn't treat everyone's calls as equal, the point is it tracks a bunch of people and decides which to fade and which are accurate and weights them by different factors to arrive at what is the most probable trade,,, so i gather.

 

Weighting the votes sounds interesting. For some reason, I still don't think it will work. Maybe I've read too much of warnings that any chatroom tips, "guru" advices, etc. etc. will lead a trader to doom.

 

It will be interesting to watch the progress of this site though. Thanks

[uexkuell 10]

Thanks for bringing this to our focus.

 

Interesting approach that they use, pretty clever.

They reward people that make good prognoses.

 

The better you get the more the system provides you with better information.

 

 

But:

If you don't (yet) have an edge by yourself the thing is worthless because you get delayed information.

 

If you make good prognoses it would really be stupid to give them away to them because you can be 100% sure that they will take advantage of it thereby ruining your edge.

 

And after your edge is gone (the market always adapts if you use a strategy on large scale) they will just move to watch the next user who has discovered a working strategy.

 

Guess they thought about that too. So they know they will never attract people that already have a special edge. They probably count on statistics: Weighting the opinions of many mediocre traders that are just good enough (or consistably bad - special jewels) shall give them an advantage. For that reason you can be sure that they will give you information that is less valuable to you than the information that you provide to them.

 

So it might be better to spend time on searching for a real edge. The idea of looking for the commitments of other traders and where they enter into trades is a good starting point.

[popstocks 10]

uexkuell i disagree, there's no way it's going to spoil your edge - users don't share the logic to their trading with anyone, you just share your timing for short / long / neutral. pretty hard to reverse engineer someones edge based only on their timing. as far as the delay, the signals are not for scalps, they seem to last anywhere from 3 hours to 3 days, so a 30min delay for newcomers isn't that big of a deal. right now i see there appears to only be 27 people using this though, i'll be interested to see how it preforms once there is 100+. in the past few days since i started paying attention to it, it's been pretty spot on for swing trades, there are no set targets or anything given - that's up to you, but the overall bias it has relayed has been reliable so far. i'm discretionary and would never trade strictly off of a system like this, but it could become a nice compliment to ones trading. just another indicator when it comes down to it, but anything based on behavior of real traders is useful imo.

Edited March 20, 2009 by popstocks

[Guest otrader]

Seems to be profitable now. Is there anybody experienced with this site?

[es49 10]

Hardly profitable. Following this site for a while now. Only interesting to track your own performance.