Market Bottom?

[alchemist 10]

Monthly chart on the ES posted below. Notice the increasing interest by market participants; both buyers and sellers. Insitutional funds have liquidated but at the same time smart money has stepped into buy? Tall wicks to the downside with rising volume. Are we seeing a market bottom in place? Would like to cast a vote. Thanks!

 

[Harlequin 10]

Seems to be having trouble even making it to the top of the channel at the moment. Yesterdays action showed that there were few buyers about.

 

 

IMHO the dead cat bounce will probably be over this week.

[firewalker 10]

Seems to be having trouble even making it to the top of the channel at the moment. Yesterdays action showed that there were few buyers about.

 

We've moved 10% from the lows and we are back above the November lows. Did you expect to see 900 again in one week?

 

Besides there's also plenty of overhead resistance to work through.

 

IMHO the dead cat bounce will probably be over this week.

 

How do you define 'dead cat bounce'?

[Harlequin 10]

We've moved 10% from the lows and we are back above the November lows. Did you expect to see 900 again in one week?

 

Besides there's also plenty of overhead resistance to work through.

 

 

 

How do you define 'dead cat bounce'?

 

No the first thing I'm looking for a a close above that upper trendline (currently 793 ish). What I was trying to get at was the way yesterdays action run up a bit ran out of steam then closed slightly below Fridays close. Also take a look at yesterday NQ action. NQ has been holding up much better than the other indices (still above November lows) but yesterday it was the leader on the downside. This makes me think this is may be spreading from the financials/housing/motor industry etc. through to the techs.

"Dead cat bounce" is just a throw away comment, but I use it to indicate I'm still seeing this as a bear market. I will be until we work through all that overhead resistance you mentioned.

 

It's been interesting reading many of the on-line market commentators, opinion seems to be split on this one. I'm just offering my interpretation of the charts as an alternative view to the OP. I'm certainly not claiming 100% that I'll be proved right.

[firewalker 10]

No the first thing I'm looking for a a close above that upper trendline (currently 793 ish). What I was trying to get at was the way yesterdays action run up a bit ran out of steam then closed slightly below Fridays close. Also take a look at yesterday NQ action. NQ has been holding up much better than the other indices (still above November lows) but yesterday it was the leader on the downside. This makes me think this is may be spreading from the financials/housing/motor industry etc. through to the techs.

 

Yes, that was definitely what caught my attention as well. Especially since the broader market has been weaker than the NQ recently, and yesterday was a case of the other way around.

 

I know rallies in bear markets can be sharp and recover quickly. I'm paying close attention right now to see whether we can hold above the November lows. If that area gets confirmed as support, a continuation to the upside seems likely.

[Harlequin 10]

I know rallies in bear markets can be sharp and recover quickly. I'm paying close attention right now to see whether we can hold above the November lows. If that area gets confirmed as support, a continuation to the upside seems likely.

 

My interpretation on that is 3 days closing above the November low. Yesterday it did that but not in a convincing way. So as you said it's down to whether it now holds as support. As a day trader my bias today is down but if it takes out yesterdays highs I expect to see 793 soon.

[Harlequin 10]

A longer term view support from October 2002 now becomes resistance.

 

 

Edited March 17, 2009 by Harlequin
Added second chart to show zoom in

[brownsfan019 17]

Can I vote - I don't care?

 

Good question and something the EOD traders can discuss, but as a pure intraday trader, I honestly could care less whether it's at a bottom or just bouncing a little. As long as the market is moving intraday, I'm happy.

[Northern boy 10]

I don't think this is a call that should be made with TA. You need to figure out how much more damage is left to be unveiled in Europe imo.

[Harlequin 10]

Can I vote - I don't care?

 

Good question and something the EOD traders can discuss, but as a pure intraday trader, I honestly could care less whether it's at a bottom or just bouncing a little. As long as the market is moving intraday, I'm happy.

 

Good point Brownsfan. I think it also depends what type of intraday trader you are though. The biggest breakthrough I had in my trading was when I started looking at the bigger time frames and coming up with a plan everyday to identify areas for entries and also to determine key levels where I would switch from long/short bias. I also know other successful traders who only look at the here and now and stay away from any idea of bias. Whatever works for you as they say.

[Harlequin 10]

I don't think this is a call that should be made with TA. You need to figure out how much more damage is left to be unveiled in Europe imo.

 

 

.... and China.

But fundamentals always show up in the charts first.

[BlowFish 10]

As of last Tuesday the COT showed fairly heavy net short positions. It will be interesting to see if that has changed much today.

[brownsfan019 17]

I also know other successful traders who only look at the here and now and stay away from any idea of bias. Whatever works for you as they say.

 

That's me - I'm that guy.

 

It's funny b/c when I go out to dinner, meet up w/ friends, poker games, etc. people ask how the market did that day or that week and I honestly have no clue unless the local news was carrying a story. As far as I am concerned, I'm done no later than 12pm EST and whatever happens the rest of the day happens. As for my knowledge, I'm clueless.

 

:rofl:

 

That's also an easy way to get people from constantly asking you questions about the markets. When you tell them 2 or 3 times that you don't know and don't care, they get the point.

[maximaken 10]

RIGHT ONE!! i trade all day..hopeing to trade till 12 one day..

[maximaken 10]

I think thatA blown out trading account or suffered a significant loss?

- A lack of understanding how the trade calls are made in a trading room?

- Frustration from not being able to get in a trade?

- Difficulty understanding the proprietary software you've purchased or leased?

[maximaken 10]

You know things have changed on Wall Street when the housing industry saves the day. A surprise government report that home construction picked up in February caught traders off guard and injected a week-old stock market rally with new energy Tuesday

[maximaken 10]

If you're parting ways with an employer, don't succumb to one of these common 401(k) rollover pitfalls.

[maximaken 10]

Entry points, stop losses*, trade size, and profit targets for each trade will be identified and discussed.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Seems to be having trouble even making it to the top of the channel at the moment. Yesterdays action showed that there were few buyers about.

 

You may be interested in some charts I posted Sunday. All the major averages are in pretty much the same fix (the boxes are drawn around consolidations). And so far, everything is going as expected.

 

 

 

 

 

[Harlequin 10]

You may be interested in some charts I posted Sunday. All the major averages are in pretty much the same fix (the boxes are drawn around consolidations). And so far, everything is going as expected.

 

Would you care to expand on "the same fix", or point us to your post on Sunday where I assume we can find your interpretation of your charts?

[DbPhoenix 42]

Would you care to expand on "the same fix", or point us to your post on Sunday where I assume we can find your interpretation of your charts?

 

The post was made to a private group, but it didn't amount to more than "here are some charts". They're pretty much self-explanatory.

 

As to "the same fix", they're all in downward channels -- as you pointed out for the ES -- and they all have those congestion zones to contend with. And though it's not in the chart, the volume of advancers has been relatively weak.

[Harlequin 10]

The post was made to a private group, but it didn't amount to more than "here are some charts". They're pretty much self-explanatory.

 

As to "the same fix", they're all in downward channels -- as you pointed out for the ES -- and they all have those congestion zones to contend with. And though it's not in the chart, the volume of advancers has been relatively weak.

 

Thanks Db, That's pretty much what I thought you meant, but I'm not familiar with the significance of congestion zones other than consolidation followed by breakout. Something for me to look into.

[DbPhoenix 42]

Thanks Db, That's pretty much what I thought you meant, but I'm not familiar with the significance of congestion zones other than consolidation followed by breakout. Something for me to look into.

 

Congestions become important due to the S and R they provide (because of all the trading volume that takes place there). Sometimes they're no more than a speed bump. At other times, they present an impenetrable block.

 

Midpoints can also be important as they represent the "equilibrium level" within that particular range (or consolidation or congestion). Here's the Q, for example:

 

 

[firewalker 10]

As to "the same fix", they're all in downward channels -- as you pointed out for the ES -- and they all have those congestion zones to contend with.

 

It seems to depend on where you get your charts... Bigcharts cash indexes show we've already reached the top of those congestions on the S&P and Nasdaq Composite.

 

[DbPhoenix 42]

It seems to depend on where you get your charts... Bigcharts cash indexes show we've already reached the top of those congestions on the S&P and Nasdaq Composite.

 

Also when one creates them. These were done last weekend.

 

Did you mean to post a chart of the Dow utilities?