Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

dww400

S&p 500

Recommended Posts

Does anyone do things like follow the S&P 500( or any other chart ) I mean would buying on the low part of the curve and selling near the top be a good way to go ? Is it too close to the bottom now (to 500 and 300) Using stocks like the total market index and the 500 index.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Does anyone do things like follow the S&P 500( or any other chart ) I mean would buying on the low part of the curve and selling near the top be a good way to go ? Is it too close to the bottom now (to 500 and 300) Using stocks like the total market index and the 500 index.

 

Yes, buying low and selling high is always a good way to go. Or selling high and buying low. The problem is identifying low and high realtime.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
In the charts I keep looking at it seems like the pattern is repeating. I mean in a few weeks it will drop below about 675. and then it will start to rise again. The only thing I don't like is it's entering 500 and may not go lower or start to do something different.

 

http://money.cnn.com/quote/chart/chart.html?symb=spx&sid=3377&time=3mo&Submit1=Refresh

 

Well, that is just how the market works. It doesn't know about your plan or what you think it should do and will do what it do. That is why you need to have a clear plan telling you why and where you will enter and where you will be wrong and what you will do when you are. Buying just because you feel it is low is not a real plan.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Does anyone think its a good idea to try. Buy something like total stock market index, probably pay around 450 and then wait about 2 weeks for it to go up to about 750.

Does anyone have any charts with things like this from some other bear markets, or what ever this mess is called. does it still go up at 450 or shoot to the side :|

Edited by dww400

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Your questions allow me to assume that you haven't done too much research on chart basics, such as resistance, support, trends, patterns, time and price, and so many other topics. What you're trying to predict is what each one of us here try to predict on a daily basis: Is price going to move higher or lower? No one here can spell that out for you and I'm sure no one wants to, especially if you end up losing your money.

 

I suggest you getting into some of the forum topics around here and getting some basic market knowledge. In addition to that, it sounds like you are in serious need of charting software. You cannot trade efficiently without having a graphical representation of what price is doing over time (unless you are extremely gifted). If you don't have a broker yet, try some of the demo platforms, which I believe can be provided by Interactive Brokers, TradeStation, or AMP Trading (http://www.ampfutures.com). If you are new to stocks and futures, you really need to learn what it is that you're trading. Plenty of that information is available at Investopedia (check out the beginners section: http://www.investopedia.com/university/buildingblocks.asp)

 

As far as getting a start to understanding price movement you can try a number of threads here. For instance, if you want to learn about a method known as Market Profile: check out http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f6/. Also I am definitely biased toward the Wyckoff method of viewing the market: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f131/. Either way you need some basic understanding of what you're looking at and until then, you will only see random patterns. Remember what you're seeing: price of an underlying asset (or contract) changing due to the buying and selling of thousands of people. People buy when they feel its undervalued and sell when they feel its overvalued. Essentially you want to find out who is right and get on that side. Best of luck to you with your trading and more importantly with your trading/investing development.

 

-- Bill

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Does anyone think its a good idea to try. Buy something like total stock market index, probably pay around 450 and then wait about 2 weeks for it to go up to about 750.

Does anyone have any charts with things like this from some other bear markets, or what ever this mess is called. does it still go up at 450 or shoot to the side :|

 

Yes, this is an excellent idea to buy at 450 and sell at 750 two weeks later. This is 66% in two weeks. Assuming of course it does go up 66% in two weeks. I assume you did your research and found that 66% return in two weeks for the total stock market is completely reasonable and realistic?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i would highly recommend the following:

 

1. Get yourself a DEMO account with Ninja Trader and Zen Fire Data. (PM me for the right people to call on this, i have references for you)

 

Ninja trader has TONS of free learning webinars held on line, so attend those and ask questions. You will need to learn how to USE the tools of this trade before anything else, and NinjaTrader.com will be a great resourse.

 

Again, PM me for a direct phone/email to the person who can set you up

 

2. Get a comfortable chair and some fresh coffee

 

3. Watch the markets from open to close, looking for price patterns and try to pick up on the personality of the market you wish to trade.

 

4. Find a mentor you can trust to educate you with the basic fundamentals you need to learn how to trade. (PM me on this as well, i can send you a few to consider)

 

The bottom line is that you will need to learn how to use your chart package, youll need to watch the markets consistently, and you will need a mentor that knows what to do.

 

PM me for referals, i would be happy to share my experience with other new traders...we've all been there before, and I always like to help.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
i would highly recommend the following:

 

1. Get yourself a DEMO account with Ninja Trader and Zen Fire Data. (PM me for the right people to call on this, i have references for you)

 

Ninja trader has TONS of free learning webinars held on line, so attend those and ask questions. You will need to learn how to USE the tools of this trade before anything else, and NinjaTrader.com will be a great resourse.

 

Again, PM me for a direct phone/email to the person who can set you up

 

2. Get a comfortable chair and some fresh coffee

 

3. Watch the markets from open to close, looking for price patterns and try to pick up on the personality of the market you wish to trade.

 

4. Find a mentor you can trust to educate you with the basic fundamentals you need to learn how to trade. (PM me on this as well, i can send you a few to consider)

 

The bottom line is that you will need to learn how to use your chart package, youll need to watch the markets consistently, and you will need a mentor that knows what to do.

 

PM me for referals, i would be happy to share my experience with other new traders...we've all been there before, and I always like to help.

 

Looks a bit overkill to me to need all this if your trading is done EOD and you are planning to hold for weeks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I guess you're right, but remember, swing trading has almost jsut as much risk, if not more, than lots of smaller trades taken during the day, so you could assume that you would want to spend the same time in preperation as you would as a day trader.

 

All the same, hope it helps, best of luck

 

Mav

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I guess you're right, but remember, swing trading has almost jsut as much risk, if not more, than lots of smaller trades taken during the day.

 

Care to expand on this statement and how you came to this conclusion? Why would risk depends on the type of trading you do and not about how you manage risk and use position sizing, regardless of the type of trading you do?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Does anyone think its a good idea to try. Buy something like total stock market index, probably pay around 450 and then wait about 2 weeks for it to go up to about 750.

Does anyone have any charts with things like this from some other bear markets, or what ever this mess is called. does it still go up at 450 or shoot to the side :|

 

I suggest you listen to the valuable comments people gave to your question, most notably from sevensa and wjrusnak. This forum is one of the best I know and the knowledge on this site is very valuable, if you take the time to study and watch charts. But it's not going to happen overnight, and if you're serious about it it will require lot of work and time spent in front of the screen.

 

Otherwise you're just throwing darts at the chart and hoping you'll get a profit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yes, buying low and selling high is always a good way to go. Or selling high and buying low. The problem is identifying low and high realtime.

 

Always good in hindside, but trying to pick bottoms and tops isn't the way forward. When learning to trade, my mentor always said to me 'don't try and be the first person to buy, and don't try to be the first person to sell....'

 

sorry, i just read the post and wanted to make the comment as it's something a lot of newbies try to do.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree with 86834.

 

A proper system is needed which delivers profits long-term, and self-training about seing markets make nice trends without you. Joining every wave is not the point (and very probably not possible).

 

As for the original post, if the author has observed this fact many times in the past (not 2) and is sure it will repeat, let him trade.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I agree with 86834.

 

A proper system is needed which delivers profits long-term, and self-training about seing markets make nice trends without you.

 

I don't really understand what you mean with the section I have marked in bold. Can you maybe explain this a bit better? I see the markets making nice trends without me all the time and don't need a lot of training to see that. Much to my dismay, it just happens even with no effort on my side at all. :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, it's pretty easy. Most of the beginners (like me at the moment) can hardly swallow seeing a rally/decline with them not being a part of the ride. Thoughts of 'is my system good? shouldn't I change my indicators?' arise and they are all wrong.

 

Just a thought that searching for an approach to buy low and sell high every time is looking for the holy grail (=leads to the grave) - you don't have to be on every ride to be (highly) profitable, that's what I meant.

 

Any further questions, hit me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Well, it's pretty easy. Most of the beginners (like me at the moment) can hardly swallow seeing a rally/decline with them not being a part of the ride. Thoughts of 'is my system good? shouldn't I change my indicators?' arise and they are all wrong.

 

That depends on the type of system, doesn't it? If your system is a trend following system, then you probably should change it if the market is "making nice trends" without you as you have mentioned above.

 

Just a thought that searching for an approach to buy low and sell high every time is looking for the holy grail (=leads to the grave) - you don't have to be on every ride to be (highly) profitable, that's what I meant.

 

How are you going to be profitable if you are not looking for an approach to buy low and sell high? Sure, you should not expect to be right every time and you should have an appropriate plan in place when you are not, but your approach still should be to buy low and sell high.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
How are you going to be profitable if you are not looking for an approach to buy low and sell high? Sure, you should not expect to be right every time and you should have an appropriate plan in place when you are not, but your approach still should be to buy low and sell high.

 

Well, a quick counter-example would be betting on S/R breakouts. You don't care if you're at the historic low of an index when you bet on support breakout and it works out and you make a profit. This doesn't fit in your theory if buying low and selling high, does it (in thise case selling high and buying low).

 

It all depends what's buying low and selling high means to us. For me, it's not the example in the above paragraph, for you, it might be. As long as you make profit and I make profit, we can talk about it til infinity.

 

And, I'd like you to present to me here a trading system with which you won't miss a trend and be profitable long-term. Show me the holy grail :) I'll send you 50% of my every monthly equity curve growth.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Well, a quick counter-example would be betting on S/R breakouts. You don't care if you're at the historic low of an index when you bet on support breakout and it works out and you make a profit. This doesn't fit in your theory if buying low and selling high, does it (in thise case selling high and buying low).

 

In your "example" you are still buying low and selling high. Typing it in a different order doesn't change the concept. 2 + 1 is the same as 1 + 2.

 

It all depends what's buying low and selling high means to us. For me, it's not the example in the above paragraph, for you, it might be. As long as you make profit and I make profit, we can talk about it til infinity.

 

My earlier question still stands then. You have said earlier that looking for an approach to buy low and sell high is a search for the holy grail, so I am confused how you expect to be profitable if you are not buying low and selling high? Or if you prefer... if you are not selling high and buying low?

 

And, I'd like you to present to me here a trading system with which you won't miss a trend and be profitable long-term. Show me the holy grail :) I'll send you 50% of my every monthly equity curve growth.

 

Not really sure where this request is coming from, but I suspect you have misunderstood something somewhere. But I do have a system that catch every trend based on my definition of a trend. It also catches situations which turn out not to be trends based on my definition of a trend, but it still is profitable in the end.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • NFLX Netflix stock watch, local support and resistance areas at 838.12 and 880.5 at https://stockconsultant.com/?NFLX
    • Hello citizens of the U.S. The hundred year trade war has leaked over into a trading war. Your equity holdings are under attack by huge sovereign funds shorting relentlessly... running basically the opposite of  PPT operations.  As an American you are blessed to be totally responsible for your own assets - the govt won’t and can’t take care of you, your lame ass whuss ‘retail’ fund managers go catatonic  and can't / won’t help you, etc etc.... If you’re going to hold your positions, it’s on you to hedge your holdings.   Don’t blame Trump, don’t blame the system, don’t even blame the ‘enemies’ - ie don’t blame period.  Just occupy the freedom and responsibility you have and act.  The only mistake ‘Trump’ made so far was not to warn you more explicitly and remind you of your options to hedge weeks ago.   FWIW when Trump got elected... I also failed to explicitly remind you... just sayin’
    • Date: 7th April 2025.   Asian Markets Plunge as US-China Trade War Escalates; Wall Street Futures Signal Further Turmoil.   Global financial markets extended last week’s massive sell-off as tensions between the US and its major trading partners deepened, rattling investors and prompting sharp declines across equities, commodities, and currencies. The fallout from President Trump’s sweeping new tariff measures continued to spread, raising fears of a full-blown trade war and economic recession.   Asian stock markets plunged on Monday, extending a global market rout fueled by rising tensions between the US and China. The latest wave of aggressive tariffs and retaliatory measures has unnerved investors worldwide, triggering sharp sell-offs across the Asia-Pacific region.   Asian equities led the global rout on Monday, with dramatic losses seen across the region. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index tumbled more than 8% shortly after the open, while the broader Topix fell over 6.5%, recovering only slightly from steeper losses. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite sank 6.7%, and the blue-chip CSI300 dropped 7.5% as markets reopened following a public holiday. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index opened more than 9% lower, reflecting deep concerns about escalating trade tensions.           South Korea’s Kospi dropped 4.8%, triggering a circuit breaker designed to curb panic selling. Taiwan’s Taiex index collapsed by nearly 10%, with major tech exporters like TSMC and Foxconn hitting circuit breaker limits after each fell close to 10%. Meanwhile, Australia’s ASX 200 shed as much as 6.3%, and New Zealand’s NZX 50 lost over 3.5%.   Despite the escalation, Beijing has adopted a measured tone. Chinese officials urged investors not to panic and assured markets that the country has the tools to mitigate economic shocks. At the same time, they left the door open for renewed trade talks, though no specific timeline has been set.   US Stock Futures Plunge Ahead of Monday Open   US stock futures pointed to another brutal day on Wall Street. Futures tied to the S&P 500 dropped over 3%, Nasdaq futures sank 4%, and Dow Jones futures lost 2.5%—equivalent to nearly 1,000 points. The Nasdaq Composite officially entered a bear market on Friday, down more than 20% from its recent highs, while the S&P 500 is nearing bear territory. The Dow closed last week in correction. Oil prices followed suit, with WTI crude dropping over 4% to $59.49 per barrel—its lowest since April 2021.   Wall Street closed last week in disarray, erasing more than $5 trillion in value amid fears of an all-out trade war. The Nasdaq Composite officially entered a bear market on Friday, sinking more than 20% from its recent peak. The S&P 500 is approaching bear territory, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has slipped firmly into correction territory.   German Banks Hit Hard Amid Escalating Trade Tensions   German banking stocks were among the worst hit in Europe. Shares of Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank plunged between 9.5% and 10.3% during early Frankfurt trading, compounding Friday’s steep losses. Fears over a global trade war and looming recession are severely impacting the financial sector, particularly export-driven economies like Germany.   Eurozone Growth at Risk   Eurozone officials are bracing for economic fallout, with Greek central bank governor Yannis Stournaras warning that Trump’s tariff policy could reduce eurozone GDP by up to 1%. The EU is preparing retaliatory tariffs on $28 billion worth of American goods—ranging from steel and aluminium to consumer products like dental floss and luxury jewellery.   Starting Wednesday, the US is expected to impose 25% tariffs on key EU exports, with Brussels ready to respond with its own 20% levies on nearly all remaining American imports.   UK Faces £22 Billion Economic Blow   In the UK, fresh research from KPMG revealed that the British economy could shrink by £21.6 billion by 2027 due to US-imposed tariffs. The analysis points to a 0.8% dip in economic output over the next two years, undermining Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ growth agenda. The report also warned of additional fiscal pressure that may lead to future tax increases and public spending cuts.   Wall Street Braces for Recession   Goldman Sachs revised its US recession probability to 45% within the next year, citing tighter financial conditions and rising policy uncertainty. This marks a sharp jump from the 35% risk estimated just last month—and more than double January’s 20% projection. J.P. Morgan issued a bleaker outlook, now forecasting a 60% chance of recession both in the US and globally.   Global Leaders Respond as Trade Tensions Deepen   The dramatic market sell-off was triggered by China’s sweeping retaliation to a new round of US tariffs, which included a 34% levy on all American imports. Beijing’s state-run People’s Daily released a defiant statement, asserting that China has the tools and resilience to withstand economic pressure from Washington. ‘We’ve built up experience after years of trade conflict and are prepared with a full arsenal of countermeasures,’ it stated.   Around the world, policymakers are responding to the growing threat of a trade-led economic slowdown. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced plans to appeal directly to Washington and push for tariff relief, following the US administration’s decision to impose a blanket 24% tariff on Japanese imports. He aims to visit the US soon to present Japan’s case as a fair trade partner.   In Taiwan, President Lai Ching-te said his administration would work closely with Washington to remove trade barriers and increase purchases of American goods in an effort to reduce the bilateral trade deficit. The island's defence ministry has also submitted a new list of US military procurements to highlight its strategic partnership.   Economists and strategists are warning of deeper economic consequences. Ronald Temple, chief market strategist at Lazard, said the scale and speed of these tariffs could result in far more severe damage than previously anticipated. ‘This isn’t just a bilateral conflict anymore — more countries are likely to respond in the coming weeks,’ he noted.   Analysts at Barclays cautioned that smaller Asian economies, such as Singapore and South Korea, may face challenges in negotiating with Washington and are already adjusting their economic growth forecasts downward in response to the unfolding trade crisis.           Oil Prices Sink on Demand Concerns   Crude oil continued its sharp slide on Monday, driven by recession fears and weakened global demand. Brent fell 3.9% to $63.04 a barrel, while WTI plunged over 4% to $59.49—both benchmarks marking weekly losses exceeding 10%. Analysts say inflationary pressures and slowing economic activity may drag demand down, even though energy imports were excluded from the latest round of tariffs.   Vandana Hari of Vanda Insights noted, ‘The market is struggling to find a bottom. Until there’s a clear signal from Trump that calms recession fears, crude prices will remain under pressure.’   OPEC+ Adds Further Pressure with Output Hike   Bearish sentiment intensified after OPEC+ announced it would boost production by 411,000 barrels per day in May, far surpassing the expected 135,000 bpd. The alliance called on overproducing nations to submit compensation plans by April 15. Analysts fear this surprise move could undo years of supply discipline and weigh further on already fragile oil markets.   Global political risks also flared over the weekend. Iran rejected US proposals for direct nuclear negotiations and warned of potential military action. Meanwhile, Russia claimed fresh territorial gains in Ukraine’s Sumy region and ramped up attacks on surrounding areas—further darkening the outlook for markets.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Andria Pichidi HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • AMZN Amazon stock watch, good buying (+313%) toi hold onto the 173.32 support area at https://stockconsultant.com/?AMZN
    • META stock watch, local support and resistance areas at 507.48, 557.84 at https://stockconsultant.com/?META
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.