Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.
-
Welcome Guests
Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.
-
Topics
-
-
Posts
-
By HFblogNews · Posted
Date: 23rd January 2025. How Low Can Oil Prices Fall After Renewed Downward Pressure? Since Donald Trump became President of the US, Crude Oil prices have fallen 3.70% retracing back from the 27-week high. Analysts still believe the price of oil per barrel will fall under the Trump presidency, as per previous statements. President Trump himself previously stated he wants oil priced closer to $45 per barrel. However, how long can oil prices fall and how quickly? What’s Driving Oil Prices Lower? Investors are closely watching the next steps of U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration. Yesterday, Trump announced plans to impose a 10% tariff on all Chinese exports, scaling back from the 100% tariff he promised during his campaign. This news has reassured investors, but experts caution that this move could be just the beginning. Over time, the U.S. may increase pressure on its top economic rival, potentially slowing the Chinese economy and reducing its energy demand. China is currently the largest importer of Crude Oil followed by the US, India and Japan. Therefore, a poorer economic outlook for China can pressure oil prices in 2025. The performance of the Chinese economy will also depend on the 10% tariffs and if these will indeed rise over time. The US President is also attempting to create an imbalance between supply and demand in order to pressure prices lower. On the President's first day he launched significant changes to the US’s energy policy, reversing restrictions on coastal oil field development imposed by the former President. Trump also advocated for boosting oil production at existing fields and declared a national energy emergency, aiming to attract investment in the mining sector and bolster the US oil reserves. If Trump is successfully able to considerably increase supply, the price of Crude Oil is likely to come under pressure. Only if demand equally improves will supply-demand imbalances be avoided. Meanwhile, a sharp drop in oil prices is being mitigated by poor weather conditions along the Gulf Coast, which could disrupt production in key high oil-producing countries. Although, this is not likely to continue in the medium to long term. The Middle East and high-producing countries in recent years have aimed to keep oil prices between $70-$80 per barrel. Therefore, traders will also monitor if these countries will look to structure countermeasures to reduce the downward pressure. For example, by reducing production levels. How Low can Crude Oil Prices Fall? The average price of oil over the past 5 years is $70 per barrel, $5 (-5.60%) lower than the current price. However, the average price of this period takes into consideration the oil crisis from 2022 where prices rose above $100. More realistic support levels can be seen at $62 per barrel. The price has found support at this level in 2021, 2023 and 2024. Some economists, such as Tom Kloza, suggest that Crude Oil could potentially drop to $40 per barrel. This would occur if OPEC nations decide to reverse previous production cuts. However, most economists believe it's more realistic to expect Crude oil prices to drop between $54 to $62 per barrel in the medium to long term. Other organizations, such as the US Energy Information Administration believe oil will only drop to $74 per barrel in 2025 and $66 per barrel. According to the EIA, their predictions, which are higher than most, are due to strong economic activity. In terms of indications and technical analysis, most point towards a downward trend. The price of Crude Oil is currently trading below most trendlines and the Volume-Weighted Average Price. In addition to this, Oscillators such as the RSI and MACD also indicate sellers are controlling the price movement. However, Crude Oil Traders should note this outlook may change if the price gains bullish momentum above $76.38. Key Takeaways: President Trump aims to bring Crude Oil prices back down closer to $40 per barrel. Trump is driving a supply-demand imbalance to lower prices, starting with reversing oil field restrictions. Economist Tom Kloza suggests Crude Oil could drop to $40 per barrel if OPEC reverses previous production cuts. Most economists believe oil prices will fall to between $54 to $62. The average price of Crude Oil over the past 5 years is $70 per barrel. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
By HFblogNews · Posted
Date: 22nd January 2025. Netflix Earnings Surge Driving the NASDAQ to Monthly Highs! The NASDAQ increases in value for a fourth consecutive day, gaining momentum after Netflix stocks rise more than 15%. Earnings reports are gaining speed for the technology sector, but why has Netflix stocks seen such a high and sudden rise in demand? Netflix Stocks Increase 15% Supporting the NASDAQ! Netflix stocks have been one of the best-performing stocks within the NASDAQ, rising more than 79% in 12 months. However, even for Netflix, a 15% rise in less than 24 hours is considered substantial. The quarterly earnings report was made public by Netflix after the market closed on Tuesday. The earnings report confirmed the following: Netflix beat their earnings per share expectations - $4.27 reported vs $4.21 expectations. Netflix’s revenue surpasses the previous quarter - $10.25 billion this quarter vs $9.82 billion in the previous quarter. The online streaming company confirms projects to expand into live sport and event streaming will proceed. In addition to this, the company’s forward guidance for 2025 remains positive. Netflix is the 10th most influential company for the NASDAQ meaning the positive earnings data and bullish price movement supports the overall price of the NASDAQ. In addition to this, the positive earnings improve the sentiment towards the entire US technology sector. Investors will now turn their attention to the quarterly earnings report for Intuitive Surgical. Intuitive Surgical stocks on Tuesday rose 1.94%. How is the Economy And Politics Affecting the NASDAQ? The US stock market is witnessing an upward correction after struggling in the last weeks of 2024. The bullish price movement is a result of a sharp decline in bond yields, the new US administration and earnings season. Investors remain relieved that bond yields have fallen back down from the 5.00% level. If bond yields continue to decline further, particularly below 4.50%, the move would be deemed as positive for the US stock market. President Trump took office on Monday and so far the pro-US rhetoric from the President, Vice President and Secretary of State continues to support the stock market. So far, the main concern is how upcoming tariffs can negatively affect inflation and growth. However, some economists advise tariffs will become the “norm” and may have a lesser effect compared to 2018. However, this is something traders will continue to evaluate and monitor. The VIX this morning fell 0.83% lower and trades more than 5.70% lower over a 7-days. The lower VIX indicates a higher risk appetite towards the stock market. If the VIX continues to decline a strong buy indication may materialize. On the most influential stocks for the NASDAQ, 82% rose in value on Tuesday. However, Apple stocks, the most impactful stock, fell 3.19% due to poor sell data. If Apple stocks continue to decline, the NASDAQ’s upward trend may come under strain. In the meantime, investors over the next week will continue to monitor upcoming earnings reports. NASDAQ - Technical Analysis The price of the index is trading significantly higher than all Moving Averages on a 2-hour timeframe and relatively high on oscillators. These factors indicate that buyers are controlling the order book. However, price action also confirms the latest impulse wave measures 3.43% which is normally the point at which the index retraces. This is something that investors may also consider. The retracement potentially also may be triggered by Netflix buyers quickly selling to cash in profit after the sudden 15% bullish surge. If a retracement does indeed form, price action and the 75-period EMA indicates that the pullback may drop as low as $21,391.30. Key Takeaways: The NASDAQ increases in value for a fourth consecutive day, but price action signals a possible retracement before continuing its bullish trend. Netflix stocks increase more than 15% due to strong earnings data. Netflix beat earnings and revenue expectations by 1.39% and confirmed projects to add live sports streaming to its platforms. The VIX trades more than 5.70% lower over a 7-days and US Bond Yields remain at recent lows. On the most influential stocks for the NASDAQ, 82% rose in value on Tuesday. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
By Stocks4life · Posted
DASH DoorDash stock, watch for a top of range breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?DASH -
By Stocks4life · Posted
SYF Synchrony Financial stock with a top of range breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?SYF -
By Stocks4life · Posted
RKLB Rocket Labstock, big rally off support and breakout at https://stockconsultant.com/?RKLB
-
