Trader P/L 2009

[Grey1 10]

Note for Brownsfan: Grey1 thinks that the only futures contracts are for stock indexes.

 

Because of this he thinks that he has a fact.

 

If one was to consider that there are a lot of contracts that are not for collections of stocks then one might come upon a new fact. And one might even learn something.

 

On the other hand: divergent opinions are what make markets so interesting. Imagine the horrifying situation if we all traded the same facts?

A totally irrelavant reply and total LACK OF UNDERSTANDING OF RISK CONCEPT I refered to but that is fine. I was refering to degree of freedom in correlation analysis between a singular or a multiple instrument which is a classical financial engineering concept and its derivitive risk analysis,,,

 

Any way donot want to hijack the thread

 

Grey1

I

[Kiwi 16]

Actually. In the terms you set it is a totally relevant reply.

 

And if you really don't want to hijack the thread you will accept that Brownsfan and I disagree with you and we think that we know enough to be right whether you think we are or not (note that shouting is impolite).

 

If you really wish to debate the topic feel free to start another thread explaining why you (I was so tempted to capitalize that) are right (and again). Then someone might feel the desire to refute that ... or not.

[Gabe2004 10]

Actually. In the terms you set it is a totally relevant reply.

 

And if you really don't want to hijack the thread you will accept that Brownsfan and I disagree with you and we think that we know enough to be right whether you think we are or not (note that shouting is impolite).

 

If you really wish to debate the topic feel free to start another thread explaining why you (I was so tempted to capitalize that) are right (and again). Then someone might feel the desire to refute that ... or not.

 

 

This starts to look like an Elitetrader type of 'thing' so I think it should end now before it goes completely out of hand.

 

Gabe

[Grey1 10]

Was there any particular news that caused that sudden drop?

 

Brian,, That was a technical drop and not a news related,, The technical reason is known as multiple exhaustion and the warning came yesterday with 3 major companies beating and still market exhausting ,,, This is the theory in advanced TA

 

1) Trend continues till all major time frames get OB/OS ( weekly, daily ,monthly),, This is called cycle analysis.

2) Exhaustion occurs when news has little effect on trend( yesterday 3 major companies beat and market sold off from high ). This is not a reversal

3) Second exhaustion starts with a strong rally next day or with in 5 days,,

4) Market corrects and retraces back at least 10%

 

At least this is the theory ,,,

 

Are we going to retrace 10% ?

 

PRO RALLY

a) we have santa clause rally ahead of us

b) 70% of comapies are beating (EBAY MISSED tonight )

c) no sign of rate increase this side of the year

 

PRO RETRACMENT

a) techncial exhaustion

b) Roubini warning on double dip recession and 11% unemployment into early JAN

c) stocks ahead of market ,,

 

Conclusion ,,, I would intra day trade to be on the safe side and no more swing till we have further evidence to decide,, This means despite the fact that stocks such as CAT,AAPL,,YHOO,SNDK ,INTEL .GOOG are awesome long swing but because of the uncertainty surrounding the market the risk can be un justified. Also historically OCT is correction month so lets put OCT behnid and see what happens

 

Hope this helps

 

Grey1

[Grey1 10]

Actually. In the terms you set it is a totally relevant reply.

 

And if you really don't want to hijack the thread you will accept that Brownsfan and I disagree with you and we think that we know enough to be right whether you think we are or not (note that shouting is impolite).

 

If you really wish to debate the topic feel free to start another thread explaining why you (I was so tempted to capitalize that) are right (and again). Then someone might feel the desire to refute that ... or not.

Thank you for your reply. I understand you two gentlemen disagree but that is fine ..I am also very pleased that you know enough to be right. Good for you ,,

 

Grey1

[BrianNC 10]

Thank you for your reply. I understand you two gentlemen disagree but that is fine ..I am also very pleased that you know enough to be right. Good for you ,,

 

Grey1

 

Why don't you start a new thread on exactly what you are talking about? I would like to see what you are saying as compared to the others. Post a link here though. I don't get out of this thread too much so I probably wouldn't see it.

[hunnybunny 10]

Subterfuge, sorry you had a bad day

 

do you trade European futures only? Or do you also you look at Asian futures since you are in Singapore?

 

Chris

 

It makes sense for me to look at the Asian stuff as they're in my timezone but they're not as widely-followed (?) ... and as a novice, i wanted to learn how to trade, so i thought i would look at what you good folks trade alongside you, as that would be the best way to learn to see trades through your eyes in as real-time a fashion as possible.

 

I hope to be smart enough to pick up some of the the wisdom so abundant at TL Your trade blotter's impressive, Chris.

 

Grey1, it's always nice to have another person on the thread and another point of view ... but i guess you came off sounding a little .. unfriendly earlier? Congratulations on your nice gains.

 

It would be super if everyone here got along famously because you're a brilliant lot, obviously ... and i look forward to reading all your contributions

 

I have a Brent Crude chart on a trade i took and have a few questions i was hoping some of you would be kind enough to answer .. and was wondering whether to post that here or at Thales's "reading charts in real time" thread. I hope it's not too much of an imposition

 

Thanks very much, all, as always!

[hunnybunny 10]

Oh, and Brownsfan, clearly i wasn't watching the Russell as closely as i thought Thanks for pointing out that its range was actually wider than the other indices.

[brownsfan019 17]

Oh, and Brownsfan, clearly i wasn't watching the Russell as closely as i thought Thanks for pointing out that its range was actually wider than the other indices.

 

In terms of $, it is wider. And for me, that's all that I care about - $. And going the path of least resistance.

[Grey1 10]

Round 1

 

Grey1 wins $430

I might lose the next 10 rounds though so far so good as the man said falling from a high rise building

 

Grey1

[Grey1 10]

salsa time hence this is my final P/L.. Deposit for a cabbage

My code had problem eliminating the noise to day hence the loss...

Peak was around $800 and loss around $300..

 

Net profit + $142

 

No trading 2morrow hence no posting my p/l

[brownsfan019 17]

10-22-09: +$20.00

 

Hell yeah! 20 bucks.

 

Missed a gorgeous sell on the Russell. Slower day overall after yesterday's big moves, to be expected.

[hunnybunny 10]

:haha:

 

so far so good as the man said falling from a high rise building

 

Grey1

 

 

 

Better trades next week, chaps i'm just watching the markets with fascination. What a roller coaster!

[brownsfan019 17]

10-23-09: +$495.00

 

 

Better day here but got out of ZS just before the massive drop... thanks ZS guys. Just had to wait for me to exit and then drop it. I exited literally about 15 seconds before the big push down came.

 

[Dinerotrader 10]

Better day here but got out of ZS just before the massive drop... thanks ZS guys. Just had to wait for me to exit and then drop it. I exited literally about 15 seconds before the big push down came.

 

Brownsfan,

Thanks for posting the chart. It's always nice to be able to see what actually happened.

 

Quick question. I have been watching the grains lately during their huge opening moves and I keep wondering if my stop would fill in the event that price dropped like a rock against me. It moves so fast I was wondering if slippage is a problem.

 

I just got OEC going on my work computer so I should be getting some SIM trade P/L posting up here soon.

[brownsfan019 17]

Brownsfan,

Thanks for posting the chart. It's always nice to be able to see what actually happened.

 

Quick question. I have been watching the grains lately during their huge opening moves and I keep wondering if my stop would fill in the event that price dropped like a rock against me. It moves so fast I was wondering if slippage is a problem.

 

I just got OEC going on my work computer so I should be getting some SIM trade P/L posting up here soon.

 

If you get caught into a swift move, you might see some slippage. For example, if someone was long into that move I posted, your initial stop might have jumped a few ticks as I was watching the DOM jump 2-4 levels at a time. Keep in mind that I posted a 5 min chart so that giant red candle is encompassing 5 mins.

 

This is why I always recommend people watch new markets, learn about them, sim trade them and then consider putting real $ on the line.

 

Here's what the 1 min chart during that time looked like:

 

[brownsfan019 17]

Brownsfan,

Thanks for posting the chart. It's always nice to be able to see what actually happened.

 

Quick question. I have been watching the grains lately during their huge opening moves and I keep wondering if my stop would fill in the event that price dropped like a rock against me. It moves so fast I was wondering if slippage is a problem.

 

I just got OEC going on my work computer so I should be getting some SIM trade P/L posting up here soon.

 

 

Also - do not hold into scheduled econ releases on markets that you are learning about. To my knowledge there wasn't anything scheduled that caused this soy drop, but I could be wrong.

 

For example, every Wed @ 1030am EST is oil inventory. If you hold a trade through that you are asking for a massive hit quickly - not only does price jump multiple levels at a time, but it could blow past your stop like it was non-existent. You can plan for this event and trade accordingly.

 

But for unexpected moves, you just have to place your stop and let it do it's job. There could be times where something happens and you take some slippage but that is a rare occurrence IMO. It's just part of the business.

[subterfuge 10]

....................

[subterfuge 10]

Stopping before the US session even kicks of for once. I know from my stats that if im up by this much in only a few trades that its better that i quit for the day rather than risk giving it back.

[daedalus 10]

^^ Smart thing to do. Too many traders overtrade.

[brownsfan019 17]

^^ Smart thing to do. Too many traders overtrade.

 

Very true. It took me A LONG TIME and THOUSANDS of dollars and hours to realize this. For me at least, getting a few decent moves off the open and then shutting it down sent my profitability through the roof, lowered stress and opened up a life outside of trading all day long.

 

It feels very counter intuitive that you can work less and make more, but that is entirely possible in trading. Once you found something that works and you are confident in, it's just a matter of trading more size. That is the one very nice thing about trading - you can work the same hours and make more simply by increasing size. Many other professions cannot do this - they must work more hours to make more (lawyers, doctors, brokers, etc.). This was an incredibly difficult thing for me to get my arms around b/c I had been brought up and taught through school that working hard and long hours is the key to success. And in most professions, that is true. Not so in trading.

 

I can't stress this enough to the newer guys reading this - find 1 quality setup, test it like no tomorrow and once you are confident in this 1 little setup, trade it confidently and make your money. When you need/want more money do the same thing but with bigger size. Repeat process over and over. There is no need to trade all day and try to time every single move out there. It's practically impossible and very difficult as you need a dozen or so possible setups to trade the big moves and chop areas. IMO that's a quick way to shorten the life of your account.

 

Just find one solid, reliable setup that you can do every day w/ confidence. Then increase your size. That's the holy grail many are searching for.

[brownsfan019 17]

10-26-09: +$287.50

 

Not bad today based on the setups that were there. I missed a Russell long that I should have been in that would have recouped that loss, but 2 things fired off simultaneously and I should have gone to the Russell first.

[brownsfan019 17]

10-26-09 update: +$437.50

 

Couldn't resist what GGC was willing to give before my Noon EST cutoff time.

[Grey1 10]

this is today's result,, Had a few traders here to enjoy chatting hence the late P/L

 

P/L for each signal is shown on the screen shot,,, the entry is on the screen shot

 

The 2.58 entry was spot on and I loved it,,

 

Grey1

Edited October 26, 2009 by Grey1

[Grey1 10]

GREY1 took an over night LONG TRADE on BTU as seen,, The shown P/L does not mean any thing as the market could Gap down and I am toast,,

 

BTU is an energy stock and could defy the gravity ..

I be happy with $1000 profit and a loss of $500

 

We will see tomorrow

 

Grey1

Edited October 26, 2009 by Grey1