Trader P/L 2009

[MightyMouse 12]

But how do you know that they're the best traders in the world? and what gives those traders more credibility than the ones in this thread?

 

These are top traders at hedge funds, commecial banks, investment banks.

Read market wizards. The author has about 20 top traders there.

[diablo272 10]

But what makes their results credible? Earlier you inferred that you knew that Bernie Madoff was running a scam, yet he was written about in many publications, so what differentiates him from these "top traders" who you've read about? Are you saying that being a professional and appearing in a book or article automatically makes one credible?

Edited October 5, 2009 by diablo272

[MightyMouse 12]

But what makes their results credible? Earlier you inferred that you knew that Bernie Madoff was running a scam, yet he was written about in many publications, so what differentiates him from these "top traders" who you've read about? Are you saying that being a professional and appearing in a book or article automatically makes one credible?

 

Lol. I had no idea that Madoff was running a scam.

 

I do know there are traders who make money. Read the books if you want and you decide.

[BrianNC 10]

Lol. I had no idea that Madoff was running a scam.

 

I do know there are traders who make money. Read the books if you want and you decide.

 

I think his point is, what makes them more credible than say Thalestrader, bathrobe, or Brownsfan here?

[sevensa 10]

You are missing the point. No one is using you being a breakeven as condescenting. The fact is that by following your own advice you are a breakeven trader, but yet you want to tell other people that they should do what you do and believe. Why do you think your advice is of any value and going to help anyone when this is not even helping yourself? This is like me saying, hey guys, I cannot break 100 in golf, but if you do exactly as I do and ignore the advice the PGA pro gave you, then you will play better golf.

 

You can tell yourself all day long that breakeven is good and better than most. Breakeven trading does not pay the bills.

 

You mainly come over as bitter and sour that other people are successful when you are not. "Proving" that you are a breakeven or losing trader, will not prove anything or give you any credibility. Anyone can put on losing trades by entering a couple of random trades.

 

If someone suggests that they should know something more than you because of their credentials, do you want to question their credentials? I mean if they post week in and week out great results then shouldn’t they be able to produce those live? I mean what would be the difference between showing someone that they can really produce those blotters live and posting them after the fact? Can you guess why no one will do this? I know. No one has anything to prove. But if you have nothing to prove, then you really shouldn’t suggest that you know something more than someone else because you are “experienced” if you really do not want to prove that you are a better trader.

 

As I said.. you are missing the point and apparently unwilling to see it. No point to take this further as the thread has been derailled too much already.

[MightyMouse 12]

I think his point is, what makes them more credible than say Thalestrader, bathrobe, or Brownsfan here?

 

Paul tudor Jones, Monroe trout, Richard Dennis and others are or were CTA's that have documented, audited resullts. If one of these guys said that a new trader should trade in 6 markets, it would be more credible but that's just me.

[thalestrader 14]

But, because of the competiveness of the intraday markets, successfully taking intraday short term trades in one market on a consistent basis is very difficult. Trying to do it in multiple markets is suicide ... you are trading other traders who eat, sleep, and breath the oil market, S&P, Euro, etc and will eat you alive if you do not eat, sleep, and breath that particular market and get on the wrong side of their trade. Their behavior is nothing short of predatory and I would strongly recommend that people master one market especially if you are new to short term futures trading.

 

We've discussed this before when you first appeared here in this thread. I do not know the where or why of how you came by your view of the "competitiveness of the intraday markets," but my opinion is that you are damaging your own prospects by using such a view to organize your trading. I have no desire to change your mind. You will no doubt continue find this thread preposterous, and you will persist in feeling that those posting their blotters here stretch credulity so long as you hold the view that you do.

 

My own view is that I compete against no one but myself. What follows from this is that I believe that when I lose, it is not because another "predatory" trader bested me by virtue of viciousness (vice is, afterr all, no virtue). When I lose, it is for one of two reasons: 1) Price acted other than I anticipated, and I lose. No problem, losses happen, or 2) I screwed up. No problem, so long as I realize my error and I take steps not to repeat the error in the future.

 

I also believe that I can step into any freely traded, liquid market and be consistently net profitable. I do not need to know the instrument I am trading.

 

I've attached some charts of recent trades - each profitable (though some more than others). I re-snapped them so as to hide the instrument, the date/time, and the price scale. Each of the trades was a long trade based upon a breakout above recent resistance. There are five charts, and in no particular order represent the 10 year note, S&P emini, the Euro, Crude, and Soybeans. Each is a fifteen minute chart.

 

I eat, sleep and dream no one market - but I am obsessed with price charts. Give me a chart, and I will trade it. And whether I win or lose has nothing to do with anyone other than myself. But I'd bet I win more often than lose, and that when I do lose, I lose much on average than my average win.

 

Whether you believe that or not matters not to me. But you are concerned with presenting balanced views. I agree. I thought that a post balancing your view of predatory traders preying upon one another, with my view where one's success or failure is the result of the discipline and emotional control of the trader might be useful to new traders stumbling upon this discussion.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Edited October 5, 2009 by thalestrader
spelling

[MightyMouse 12]

As I said.. you are missing the point and apparently unwilling to see it. No point to take this further as the thread has been derailled too much already.

 

I make a statemnt that it is dangerous for new traders to trade 6 markets. That was the point. I still stand by it. Which was a community spirited statement. How you get from that to me being bitter about not making money trading is some irrational leap. Your point, then has nothing to do with anything.

[Kiwi 16]

Clearly you are either lucky or cherry picking your trades Thalestrader.

 

Or is it that you have specialized in a behaviour that occurs in many markets and when it does entrains participants to a reasonably limited number of options?

[MightyMouse 12]

We've discussed this before when you first appeared here in this thread. I do not know the where or why of how you came by your view of the "competitiveness of the intraday markets," but my opinion is that you are damaging your own prospects by using such a view to organize your trading. I have no desire to change your mind. You will no doubt continue find this thread preposterous, and you will persist in feeling that those posting their blotters here stretch credulity so long as you hold the view that you do.

 

My own view is that I compete against no one but myself. What follows from this is that I believe that when I lose, it is not because another "predatory" trader bested me by virtue of viciousness (vice is, afterr all, no virtue). When I lose, it is for one of two reasons: 1) Price acted other than I anticipated, and I lose. No problem, losses happen, or 2) I screwed up. No problem, so long as I realize my error and I take steps not to repeat the error in the future.

 

I also believe that I can step into any freely traded, liquid market and be consistently net profitable. I do not need to know the instrument I am trading.

 

I've attached some charts of recent trades - each profitable (though some more than others). I re-snapped them so as to hide the instrument, the date/time, and the price scale. Each of the trades was a long trade based upon a breakout above recent resistance. There are five charts, and in no particular order represent the 10 year note, S&P emini, the Euro, Crude, and Soybeans. Each is a fifteen minute chart.

 

I eat, sleep and dream no one market - but I am obsessed with price charts. Give me a chart, and I will trade it. And whether I win or lose has nothing to do with anyone other than myself. But I'd bet I win more often than lose, and that when I do lose, I lose much on average than my average win.

 

Whether you believe that or not matters not to me. But you are concerned with presenting balanced views. I agree. I thought that a post balancing your view of predatory traders preying upon one another, with my view where one's success or failure is the result of the discipline and emotional control of the trader might be useful to new traders stumbling upon this discussion.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

You are correct. One certainly needs discipline, proper emotional release, (because one cannot control their emotions), patience, and confidence to succeed at the form of trading they do and each is personal.

 

I think markets are predatory. I actually think trading is most like poker which I also think is predatory. In fact I think marriage can be predatory. See the pattern developing? But, you can think of it as a rose garden, playground, beach, etc. as long as it makes sense to you. It's just perspective.

[brownsfan019 17]

OK - I'M ENDING THIS NOW. THIS THREAD IS ABOUT POSTING YOUR RESULTS AND TALKING ABOUT THEM IF YOU WISH. IF YOU HAVE PARTICULAR QUESTIONS, CONCERNS, WHATEVER START A NEW THREAD. I'M VERY CLOSE TO JUST WIPING ALL THESE RECENT POSTS OUT OF THIS THREAD.

 

Monday is a new trading day and we will treat it as such in this thread.

 

To participate in this thread, either:

 

1) post your blotter

2) discuss your trading day

 

That's it. If you want to discuss the merits of trading more than 1 market, open a new thread somewhere else. If you want to discuss why you should only trade 1 market when starting out, start a new thread somewhere else. If you want to say you think the posts here are fake, start a new thread somewhere else.

 

Is that clear?

 

You guys know I'm a very lenient mod, but this recent multipage outbursts is not what this thread is about. If you're not sure what this thread is about, see page 1, post 1.

 

Thank you and good trading. Hope to see many participating here on Monday with blotters - good or bad, real or sim - doesn't matter, just participate!

 

[BrianNC 10]

What took you so long?

[hunnybunny 10]

Mighty Mouse, if you think that the traders who post their blotters here are frauds, why do you come here? There's nothing for you here, surely? Perhaps you're better off interacting with your top traders? Please stop beating your drum here. Unless you wish to be constructive and help others, please do not post anything here and poison what is otherwise a very nice environment. Your jaundiced views on marriage and the predatory nature of traders may find more receptiveness elsewhere. Thank you.

[subterfuge 10]

Tough day. Well, I say tough day, I've had ALOT worse days, lol, but today I fought and fought, felt as though i done everything right in terms of discipline with setups etc, and am about BE for the day.

See what tomorrow brings...

[MightyMouse 12]

Mighty Mouse, if you think that the traders who post their blotters here are frauds, why do you come here? There's nothing for you here, surely? Perhaps you're better off interacting with your top traders? Please stop beating your drum here. Unless you wish to be constructive and help others, please do not post anything here and poison what is otherwise a very nice environment. Your jaundiced views on marriage and the predatory nature of traders may find more receptiveness elsewhere. Thank you.

 

Silly rabbit. The comment about marriage was meant to be a joke about myself. There are plenty of traders who believe that traders are predatory. There are plenty who don't. If you read carefully, you will see that we are not supposed to post anything like this anymore.

[bathrobe 10]

Did not get started until around 1 est, found nothing worth trading from my point of view

[Dinerotrader 10]

Just one trade today.

 

GVA +$0.45/share or 1.5% so far. I didn't get the position closed out before the close of the day so we'll see what tomorrow brings. I will try to start posting some kind of blotter.

[MightyMouse 12]

Did not get started until around 1 est, found nothing worth trading from my point of view

 

In ES?

 

If you made anything today they made you earn it.

[Kiwi 16]

Hopefully, even though this is off topic, my friend won't delete me

 

This subject of "competition or not" has come up on many forums and I find myself swinging in my view. A very experienced trader sometime known as Leonardo but posting this time as TheRealThing said these two things which offer (I believe) a realistic view of what we are doing in the market (as less than Salomon Bros scale):

 

"That doesn't mean that great money can't be consistently made from xxxxx trades. I do, because it is my niche. I know it is a niche, and respect that it is just a niche."

 

 

which is key -- building and knowing ones skills in extracting profit from your niche business. He also said:

 

 

"Trade the market in a way it allows you to profit consistently over time. The market does not care who profits from its actions. Those who consistently profit the greatest understand what is going on better than the other participants. You can choose to follow the market where it wants to go and obtain what you want."

 

 

 

On markets to justify the post: I got my bias on HSI right yesterday (up) but my system only took one trade (down, lol) and took 54 points profit. There is no stress in a mechanical system when you accept both winning and losing.

Edited October 5, 2009 by Kiwi

[thalestrader 14]

Brownie, if you feel these posts too distracting from the topic of your thread, feel free to move all the associated posts to my Reading Charts in Real Time" thread. While I agree they are not directly related to the topic of your thread, I do believe they are important enough to preserve.

 

Your Friend,

 

Thales

 

Hopefully, even though this is off topic, my friend won't delete me

 

A very experienced trader sometime known as Leonardo but posting this time as TheRealThing said these two things which offer (I believe) a realistic view of what we are doing in the market ...

 

Hi Kiwi,

 

I knew Leonardo (I presume your L is the same as my L as your quote above sure sounds like him) on another, very good but very obscure forum (probably very good because very obscure) from a number of years back.

 

He always seemed to have a very sound understanding of the individual trader's relationship tp the market as whole. And it was not an adversarial understanding, but one based upon one's ability to profit from one's own understanding of what is going on.

 

Most traders fail in this regard. We live in an age of subjectivism, where, as Nietzsche argued, perspective is everything. What experience shows, however, is that while each is entitled to his or her perspective, there is only one which is correct. That is, relativism fails, and objectivism succeeds. One is entitled to the view that trading is an adversarial, predatory activity. But one should not expect to succeed if one organizes his or her trading activity according to such a view, as trading is neither predatory nor adversarial. Trading is about mass psychology. Trading is bout human nature. Trading success is the result of observing and understanding that nature through an examination of one's self, and then applying that knowledge to the human activity of the markets.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

Edited October 6, 2009 by thalestrader

[thalestrader 14]

Or is it that you have specialized in a behaviour that occurs in many markets and when it does entrains participants to a reasonably limited number of options?

 

It really couldn't be that easy, could it?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[MightyMouse 12]

Brownie, if you feel these posts too distracting from the topic of your thread, feel free to move all the associated posts to my Reading Charts in Real Time" thread. While I agree they are not directly related to the topic of your thread, I do believe they are important enough to preserve.

 

Your Friend,

 

Thales

 

 

 

Hi Kiwi,

 

I knew Leonardo (I presume your L is the same as my L as your quote above sure sounds like him) on another, very good but very obscure forum (probably very good because very obscure) from a number of years back.

 

He always seemed to have a very sound understanding of the individual trader's relationship tp the market as whole. And it was not an adversarial understanding, but one based upon one's ability to profit from one's own understanding of what is going on.

 

Most traders fail in this regard. We live in an age of subjectivism, where, as Nietzsche argued, perspective is everything. What experience shows, however, is that while each is entitled to his or her perspective, there is only one which is correct. That is, relativism fails, and objectivism succeeds. One is entitled to the view that trading is an adversarial, predatory activity. But one should not expect to succeed if one organizes his or her trading activity according to such a view, as trading is neither predatory nor adversarial. Trading is about mass psychology. Trading is bout human nature. Trading success is the result of observing and understanding that nature through an examination of one's self, and then applying that knowledge to the human activity of the markets.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Thales,

 

I am curious, in your view, how do you explain a short squeeze or any other common forced liquidation traders take advantage of in the market? Do you believe these events happen? Isn't a trader taking advantage of another trader who is backed into a corner predatory? Or do you acknowledge that these events do exist and simply choose to not call it predatory and summarily refer to it as something else and if so, what do you refer to it as?

 

Please note that I am not attacking your view, your ability to trade, or anything of a personal nature and I would greatly appreciate it if you refrained from the same if you choose to respond.

 

MM

[thalestrader 14]

Thales,

 

I am curious, in your view, how do you explain a short squeeze or any other common forced liquidation traders take advantage of in the market? Do you believe these events happen? Isn't a trader taking advantage of another trader who is backed into a corner predatory? Or do you acknowledge that these events do exist and simply choose to not call it predatory and summarily refer to it as something else and if so, what do you refer to it as?

 

Please note that I am not attacking your view, your ability to trade, or anything of a personal nature and I would greatly appreciate it if you refrained from the same if you choose to respond.

 

MM

 

MM,

 

I hope you haven't felt that I was attacking you personally in any of my posts responding to you and your views.

 

Certainly "short squeezes" are real. But no one is ever backed into a corner by anyone other than him or herself.

 

In my opinion, you have personalized or individualized market behavior when market behavior is not individuals, certainly not about you or me. It is about the great mass of market participants. I did not trade today. My absence had no effect on the open,high, low, or close of any of the markets I trade. You and I and indeed every trader who posts regularly at TL could simultaneously quit the markets tomorrow and never trade again without any measurable impact upon the market's behavior tomorrow.

 

The market is simply the herd of people. A herd will at times stand around grazing, wandering aimlessly across the plain. Then, a change is perceived, perhaps a threat, or perhaps the promise of greener pastures. At first the change is noticed by only a few at the periphery. Those few commence a movement that often simply results in a shuffling of the herd, but at other times causes a mass movement in the form of a stampede. None of the individuals is in control of the movement of the whole, but each is instead swept along with the herd. The stampede approaches an obstacle. The herd may suddenly reverse direction and continue to stampede, or they may instead simply settle down to resume teir grazing and perhaps to take a drink. This grazing drift will continue until the next change is perceived about the periphery that ultimately drives the behavior of the herd to again stampede.

 

Most traders are members of the herd. Most are controlled by the actions of the herd and do not realize this to be so. They are confused. They do not understand what is happening, (or being humans and under control of their "egos" rather than being masters of their emotions) they demand to know why it is happening.

 

I try not to be a member of the herd. I stand watch at the periphery, waiting for signs of those changes that cause the mass to stampede. I then position myself to ride that stampede until it reaches the next obstacle that will either halt the stampede or reverse it. At no time during the course of my ride have I been responsible for injuring any of the other members of the herd. Any injuries that have been suffered are due to their own inability to understand what is happening around them.

 

I do not "simply choose not to call these events predatory." In my opinion, these activities simply are not predatory. I simply sit at my desk and watch for signs that the herd is getting ready to move. I move with them, but always aware that their movement is finite and subject to reversal. I am never threatened. I never threaten anyone.

 

You liken trading to a war, and I think that that is something that sounds good on websites or in trading books or TAS&C articles or ET forum debates, but it is not a description of what trading is.

 

Ed Seykota, in his Market Wizards interview compares the movement of markets to watching waves in the ocean. Successful trading has much more in common with the dedicatated surfer, patiently treading water while prone on his board waiting for the right wave to come and provide him a satisfying ride that any war analogy that you may devise.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Kiwi 16]

Thales,

 

I am curious, in your view, how do you explain a short squeeze or any other common forced liquidation traders take advantage of in the market? Do you believe these events happen? Isn't a trader taking advantage of another trader who is backed into a corner predatory? Or do you acknowledge that these events do exist and simply choose to not call it predatory and summarily refer to it as something else and if so, what do you refer to it as?

 

Please note that I am not attacking your view, your ability to trade, or anything of a personal nature and I would greatly appreciate it if you refrained from the same if you choose to respond.

 

MM

 

I'd have a go even though Thale's view may be different.

 

Situations that squeeze shorts - or any situations that generate excess liquidity because traders abandon their positions only to have their original view confirmed later - will be generated by a combination of actions from a number of actors.

 

Some of the actors will be deliberately predating (selling into buy stops say) but others will not. Examples in the not camp would be wise traders holding off buying for the next S&R once the market seems to lack strength, traders who simply were waiting for a bigger pullback, traders who were looking for more or a different confirmation/signal before entering, etc, etc.

 

So the market just behaves like markets will in such a situation. So Leonardo's view is that the wise trader, familiar with how the market as a whole acts might have been holding back to see what would happen at X then they buy. No negative view of others implied ... they were just playing to their understanding.

 

The danger of a predation view is two fold (imo):

- you might be lead to expect actions from the market that don't happen because most or even major actors are not behaving with that motivation/strategy

- you may add to your stress in trading because it adds to the "i was wrong" or "i was taken to the cleaners" or some other thinking that makes trading more difficult than it needs to be.

 

Having typed that lot I wouldn't be at all surprised in TT's view was different (or that he found a different way to express it). Hey TT, that wasn't a system trading board was it?

[bathrobe 10]

In ES?

 

If you made anything today they made you earn it.

 

Yeah, the lack of later day volume for the most part kept me out.

 

By the way, where I live currently; Scottsdale, AZ marriage could be considered predatory. The women are all about money and gold digging.......then again that is probably true of some women everywhere.