Trader P/L 2009

[BlowFish 10]

Well, I actually wanted her to trade 1 microlot/$25 in equity, so, according to my original plan, she should be trading 4-5 microlots. She wanted to wait until she got close to $100 to add a second microlot.

 

 

That made me smile. Not only discovering her own trades but sorting out her own position sizing too.

[thalestrader 14]

That made me smile. Not only discovering her own trades but sorting out her own position sizing too.

 

She seems to have intuited the concept that "if you don't bet, you can't win, but if you lose all your money, you can't bet." While I still think that the reason she has done so well is because the money is not important to her; yet that does not explain the fact that she has been far more reserved and cautious than I would have expected.

 

For example, I have been trying to coax her into adding to her positions as price moves in her favor, but thus far, she has resisted.

 

I am apparently far more curious than she is to see the power of pyramiding in such a highly levered instrument. I figure that so long as she waits until price moves so as to allow for the stop on her initial position to be moved to breakeven, adding to her winners ought to produce some stunning profits.

 

All in due time, I suppose.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[diablo272 10]

Congratulations to you and her both, I just think it's incredible that someone so young can even get a HANDLE on trading. Excellent.

[Blaiserboy 10]

Thales

 

She is giving us all a lesson in money management....... she may intuitively know what is best.

 

I quite admire her and her dad for her progress...

[thalestrader 14]

I have been trying to coax her into adding to her positions as price moves in her favor, but thus far, she has resisted.

 

She bought the GBPUSD ... and I convinced her to keep buying it until it her target.

 

She had a good day,

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

PS No trades for me today, I was a bit knocked down this morning by a migraine.

[wskid 10]

Been a while since I wrote here, it's been a rough road, actually i just came back from 11 days of being down, total is about $2000 loss. I trade bond futures and lately have been very frustrated in trying to make ''big trades'' which I regretfully learned can kill you while you are trying. For the last 4 days though I cut the bleeding (and size). I sized back to trading 1 lots scalping for confidence building. Not much in profits, a meager $300 in the last 4 days, but getting back on my feet slowly.

 

I don't know if any of you ever had such a loss streak, maybe you can share on how you remedied it with the rest of us?

 

Tomorrow is another day and I am aiming for a 5th day of winnings...

 

Cheers.

[bathrobe 10]

PS No trades for me today, I was a bit knocked down this morning by a migraine.

 

I suffer from frequent migraines, the normal meds dont work so I have to take narcotic pain relievers and then cant trade, I can actually tell when it is going to rain due to the kind of headache I get from the barometric pressure.

[thalestrader 14]

Hi folks,

 

Looks like everyone has fallen off from here ... perhaps the p/l thread should go on hiatus for the summer.

 

At any rate, I three trades on two stocks, NOC + 63 pennies (two long trades) and WHR +98 pennies for +1.61/share traded.

 

I also had a 6B (Pound futures) trade that I closed at +2 ticks after watching the pound meander all morning long.

 

My daughter fared better than I. She traded the EURJPY and the GBPUSD, 2 wins out four trades, and finished the day +$22.06. And she did it all between breakfast and lunch while engrossed in the last book of the Harry Potter series. She goes to bed tonight with a closed equity in the microlot account of $211.20, up from last night's $189.14 close.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[jonbig04 10]

Great stuff Thales! When will she be taking customers for her fund? Haha

[bathrobe 10]

Several shorts and one long, took the afternoon off.

[HAL9000 10]

I am back.

 

Today I scalped, really just a little.

 

While I think that the way to go for me, is to trade the 6E,

 

today I started to trade/scalp the NQ in real.

 

I guess my biggest mental problem is still fear.

So I have to trade real, even if just small at the beginning,

otherwise I will not overcome this problem,

and time is running too.

 

 

[bathrobe 10]

Traded later day breakout around 245 est.

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Folks,

 

I was out today, but bought 6B (see chart) last nighton a stop while I slept and awoke with a 100 tick profit limit that was hit by morning for +100 ticks. That was some rally all the way around today!

 

My daughter bought the EURJPY at some point on a break higher, but watched about 1/2 evaporate late in the day. Not a bad day for her though, as she was out most of the day herself. She's geting a bit cocky, as she waited till she was +20 ticks, and then moved her stop to breakeven, and then went out to play with her friends (who can blame her).

 

She ended up +30 tor so ticks on two microlots.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Folks,

 

I was out today, and no trades for me.

 

My daughter bought the EURJPY this morning after it tested its overnight low. She used an autotrailing stop so she could play (it is summer vacation, after all). She managed to grab a chunk out of the middle of the EURJPY's subsequent rally, with a profit of $13.69, closing the day at $231.78

 

I'm considering adding to the account so she can trade a bit more size.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[pimind 10]

Have not traded much this week, my trading partner my brother took most of the week off, i should have done the same anyway I am down a little over $3,000 ouch!!!!

 

Thalestrader congrats to your daughter!!!!!

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Folks,

 

I was going to post the first chart this morning in the real time thread, but by the time I reproduced it on my machine it had already triggered. Here is my daughter's trade today - Long EURJPY with her anticipated profit targets.

She finishes today up $36.25 and closes the week at $268.03.

 

I have included the daily run as well as the run for the week 7/13-17. If she keeps this up, she will have found a nice little part-time job for herself.

 

Well, we have a house full of kids right now and it looks like rain, so we are on our way out to take over a local bowling alley.

 

Have a great weekend!

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[bathrobe 10]

Great day for me. I included charts for today, bought the breakout of VAH, later faded $TICK, and later day sold at resistance.

Edited July 17, 2009 by bathrobe
used wrong term

[Dinerotrader 10]

Thales,

This thread seems easy to get back on track so I will ask a quick question using the chart you posted. I noted a few S/R level breakouts that would have appeared reasonable to me if I had been reading the chart in real time and I wondered if you could comment on why you/your daughter didn't trade those breakouts.

I am trying to sharpen my eye for distinquishing between imagined S/R and real S/R and your family:) seems to have this down pat.

Thanks.

 

[fxscalper 10]

I noted a few S/R level breakouts that would have appeared reasonable to me if I had been reading the chart in real time and I wondered if you could comment on why you/your daughter didn't trade those breakouts.

 

I am trying to sharpen my eye for distinquishing between imagined S/R and real S/R and your family:) seems to have this down pat.

Thanks.

 

 

Hi imorgan,

 

My daughter isn't here right now, but here's my take on the areas in question:

 

#1: I believe she did trade at #1 yesterday morning. In fact, I believe she bought before price rose that high thinking that price would get at least that high and if price didn't breakout above there she'd just close the position. Once price did get through, she set a trailing stop and a profit limit and went away for the day. As I said before, she's getting a bit cocky.

 

#2: This occurred at 1:45 AM EDT, and thus well past her bedtime. If she starts waking us up to trade the London open, I think she'll lose trading her privileges. And even though this was outside of her hours, I am not sure she would have bought at #2 because the the buy stop would have been less than 7 ticks from the prior night's breakdown price, and thus this is not not a breakout above resistance, but a further push into anticipated resistance. So, the easy answer is she didn't buy #2 because she was asleep. The probable technical answer is that it wasn't a breakout. Also, the more I look at number two, I really don't think I would have had a thought to strike a line and contemplate an entry there. Again, I will ask her later what she thinks, but I would be surprised if she would have bought there.

 

#3: Very similar to #2 as this occurred at 3:00 AM EDT, and she was, thankfully, still asleep. Technically, also similar to #2 in that it is very close to the bottom of what looks to be a very clear range. She is not here right now, but I will ask her later what she thinks of #2 point and #3. I do know that earlier she and I both agreed that anywhere above but close 131.50-131.60 is a dangerous place to be a seller. To me, this was not a break of support but a bit more sound and fury in the middle of nowhere signifying nothing.

 

#4: Interestingly she did buy at #4, and I reproduced her chart incorrectly. If it were me, I'd have rather waited for the point I had marked (131.49), but she did buy at 131.42. I'd have rather waited until the high that formed at your #2 had been broken. But right now, she's been doing better than I, so who am I to judge.

 

 

 

I have to run, but I'll try to follow up on this later,

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[fxscalper 10]

Hi imorgan,

 

My daughter isn't here right now, but here's my take on the areas in question:

 

 

This is the second time I've given up the handle I set up for my daughter.

 

 

Back to the drawing board.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales posting as FX

[Dinerotrader 10]

:doh:

LOL. I can just imagine your reaction the moment you realized you made that mistake again. Hilarious.

Thanks for the explanations. Next time I will be more careful of the times so I don't include midnight hours.:doh:

[thalestrader 14]

:doh:

LOL. I can just imagine your reaction the moment you realized you made that mistake again. Hilarious.

 

She's not going to be happy. The first time she didn't mind because I made that one up and she didn't like it. This one she came up with, and she thinks its very cool.

 

Oh well. That'll teach me not to post from her computer.

 

Anyhow, two other things I wanted to point out:

 

1) Support and resistance are not necessarily precise price points, but often are more like "zones" or "areas" of S/R. These areas are often bounded by precise price points (but not always). Do not mistake a point within a zone of resistance for "Resistance Itself", nor a point within a zone of support as "Support Itself".

 

For example, suppose a stock declines from a high of 100 to a low of 80, and then rallies to 90. At 90, the decline resumes, but this time the decline is checked at 81. Price again rallies, this time halting at 89. The decline again resumes. Price declines down and through 81. I would not be looking to short a break of 81 just because that was the most recent swing low, because 80 is stilla potential and proabable support. The area between 80-8 is a zone of support.

 

2) Always be aware of the bigger picture. If you look at that chart, you can see a big rally that pushed through what should have been some serious resistance. Price twice tested that broken resistance as support. You do not want to be shorting right into that new found support. Also, since the rally high the market has been consolidating in a range at the high end of the rally's range. While identifying the extremes of of a line or range or consolidation is relaticely easy, it is much more difficult to identify tradable S/R within that range. As price crosses back and forth between S/R, it is likely to move all the way from one to the other. If price most recently tested support, then it is best not to short within the range until price has travelled back to test resistance (or fails to test resistance and instead breaks below the recently tested support. Likewise, after a test of resistance at the upper end of the range, it is best not to go long until price has again traveled to support (or fails to reach support before turning and breaking above recently tested resistance.

 

In example #1, that would be a buy point as price had tested support, rallied, made a higher low, and then continued on its way to test resistance.

 

In example #2, although some may make the case that price had declined from its test of resistance and tested support, but it does not lok that way to me. Your #2 looks to be a simle ABC type reaction against the decline on its way to support.

 

In example #3, that seems to me to be the test of the top of the zone of support. I wouldn't want to short into that zone, but rather I'd wait for a break belwo that entire zone.

 

In example, #4, price has tested support and it on its way back to resistance. So the test was your low, then a rally to a high, a decline to a higher low, and then a rally to a higher high. I'd prefer to wait for price to break above the high established at your example #2, but, as I said earlier, a case could be made for buying the break above your #4 (though I would say your at higher risk that the "breakout" reverses immediately.

 

I hope that makes sense.

 

Have a wonderful weekend and remember to enjoy your family.

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[brownsfan019 17]

Good to see thales and others keeping the thread going!

 

 

Not sure when I'll be back at it hard again, just taking a little break from it all.

 

Keep it going guys!

[Dinerotrader 10]

Okay. I guess someone tipped off Brownsfan that I was highjacking the beloved P/L thread (one of my personal favorite threads) with this S/R stuff so I will quickly post my last comment related to the EURJPY chart and Thales' comments. I can just picture Brownsfan sitting on the beach in tahiti during his "break" when he gets a call that his forum thread is getting highjacked....he throws his margarita........but remains calm and just posts a simple "thanks for keeping the thread going" comment so we all know he is still watching. No worries, Monday will come and we're back to straight P/L posts.:rofl:

 

1) Support and resistance are not necessarily precise price points, but often are more like "zones" or "areas" of S/R. These areas are often bounded by precise price points (but not always). Do not mistake a point within a zone of resistance for "Resistance Itself", nor a point within a zone of support as "Support Itself".

 

In example #2, although some may make the case that price had declined from its test of resistance and tested support, but it does not lok that way to me. Your #2 looks to be a simle ABC type reaction against the decline on its way to support.

 

See #5 comment on new annotations to chart. This area would represent new resistance due to prior night's PA so a resistance breakout just below that area would make a breakout-then-reversal more likely and consequently make trade #2 not that appealing.

 

2) Always be aware of the bigger picture. If you look at that chart, you can see a big rally that pushed through what should have been some serious resistance. Price twice tested that broken resistance as support. You do not want to be shorting right into that new found support. Also, since the rally high the market has been consolidating in a range at the high end of the rally's range. While identifying the extremes of of a line or range or consolidation is relaticely easy, it is much more difficult to identify tradable S/R within that range. As price crosses back and forth between S/R, it is likely to move all the way from one to the other. If price most recently tested support, then it is best not to short within the range until price has travelled back to test resistance (or fails to test resistance and instead breaks below the recently tested support. Likewise, after a test of resistance at the upper end of the range, it is best not to go long until price has again traveled to support (or fails to reach support before turning and breaking above recently tested resistance.)

I think I read this comment over 20 times trying to fully digest and visualizeits full implications and I am even still digesting. I hope that doesn't mean I am stupid. See notes #7 and #9 where I tried to comment about how this would be interpreted on the chart.

 

In example #1, that would be a buy point as price had tested support, rallied, made a higher low, and then continued on its way to test resistance.

See note #8.

 

 

In example #3, that seems to me to be the test of the top of the zone of support. I wouldn't want to short into that zone, but rather I'd wait for a break belwo that entire zone.

 

Not sure exactly what the full range of the zone you are thinking here but my guess is 131.80-131.50 based on prior comment on the "danger area". See notes #6 & #8.

 

In example, #4, price has tested support and it on its way back to resistance. So the test was your low, then a rally to a high, a decline to a higher low, and then a rally to a higher high. I'd prefer to wait for price to break above the high established at your example #2, but, as I said earlier, a case could be made for buying the break above your #4 (though I would say your at higher risk that the "breakout" reverses immediately.

 

See note #9. I would agree the green line would probably be the best breakout area because of prior resistance and support found in that tight range below the green line.

 

That's all I got. I also wanted to post this to demonstrate that the effort put into posts by contributors like Thales is equally matched by thought and contemplation of those learning what has been taught. The effort made by those that give such in depth answers is so appreciated.

 

Cheers.

 

[thalestrader 14]

See #5 comment on new annotations to chart. This area would represent new resistance due to prior night's PA so a resistance breakout just below that area would make a breakout-then-reversal more likely and consequently make trade #2 not that appealing.

 

 

I think I read this comment over 20 times trying to fully digest and visualizeits full implications and I am even still digesting. I hope that doesn't mean I am stupid. See notes #7 and #9 where I tried to comment about how this would be interpreted on the chart.

 

 

See note #8.

 

 

 

 

Not sure exactly what the full range of the zone you are thinking here but my guess is 131.80-131.50 based on prior comment on the "danger area". See notes #6 & #8.

 

 

 

See note #9. I would agree the green line would probably be the best breakout area because of prior resistance and support found in that tight range below the green line.

 

That's all I got. I also wanted to post this to demonstrate that the effort put into posts by contributors like Thales is equally matched by thought and contemplation of those learning what has been taught. The effort made by those that give such in depth answers is so appreciated.

 

Cheers.

 

 

I've thought a good deal about this this weekend. If you remember, I kept saying that #2 just didn't look right, and that I would probably not even have thought to trade it. I asked my daughter what she thought, and she traced out the swings on the screen with her finger and said that it wasn't "a whole move." It then dawned on me that the best way to try to explain would be to show how price divides into swings of varying sizes.

 

For the sake of this chart, I used the terms Major to denote the largest swings, intemediate to denote swings of a somewhat smaller dimension, and minor to denote the smallest swings. Also, I did not outline each and every minor swing (the green lines) because it would take too much time. The first chart is probably my preferred swing "count," though I provided an alternate that I feel is also justified.

 

You see, one of the first things I had her do when she first started this project was to highlight the swings that represented H-HL-HH or L-LH-LL when taking a trade. She had to learn the difference between an intermediate high and low and minor highs and lows.

 

I've outlined the swings in the attached chart.

 

Rather than sitting here typing out a detailed explanation, I'll let the chart speak for itself. As I was putting this chart together, I kept "hearing" Db's posts where he cautions that many see S/R where it isn't and fail to see it where it is. I also recalled his comment that he had been involved in a Ross Hook thread where participants where seeing these 1-2-3 hooks all over the place, even in the middle of nowhere. I would suggest that not only were they seeing them in the middle of nowhere, but they were likely mistakenly indentifying minor swings as being of intermediate importance, and thus mistaking a mere correction against the intermediate trend for a change in that trend.

 

I hope that helps. Someone else, no doubt, may identify these swings somewhat differently, but the principle is sound, both in theory and in practice.

 

See you next week.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

 

EDIT: PS The final Blue swing is still potentially in progress. Price as long as price makes a higher high before taking out the low at the last blue "pivot" then the current major swing is intact.