Trader P/L 2009

[MidKnight 12]

While in hindsight I am able to find nice runners on them; but runners are not for me.

At least not now. The value in them for me is their short term meaning.

I see the noise inside a half wave.

 

Only that the emergency stop has to be placed out of it, so my emergency stop would have been 5 NQ points today. Yes at some point in time it will be hit, but it wasn't today.

 

Hi Hal9000,

 

I just want to clarify my understanding with your trading. So you are saying that the noise, by your standard is 5pts and the stop needs to be placed outside of that - sounds logical. And, that your targets are less than 5pts, so effectively within the noise?

 

It's fine if this is correct of course. I'm just trying to clarify my understanding of the style.

 

With respect,

MK

[MidKnight 12]

Mr. Black was 6 for 6 today I think.... I would appreciate some comments about how you relate volume to your 'price action' for an entry. I could see that you got most of your longs from consolidation points and pull backs to your 20EMA , but how does volume figure into it? Oh yeah and how did you decide to get long on that first trade @934.25?

 

Sir,

 

I do agree, mr. black is doing outstanding, but there are massive massive threads and debate about Hershey's style on that 'other' forum. I mean massive. To ask him how volume figures into it is an enormous answer. Try reading Hershey's stuff and if you can understand his obfuscated writing style then you may get some value from it....I posted the information you needed last time if you wanted to do some research on your own.

 

With kind regards,

MK

[HAL9000 10]

So you are saying that the noise, by your standard is 5pts and the stop needs to be placed outside of that - sounds logical. And, that your targets are less than 5pts, so effectively within the noise?

 

Hi MidKnight,

 

to keep it simple, based on my entries, and allowing me small mistakes trading the NQ I need a 5 point stop, or 100$. I tried 2 and 3 point stops, but one simple mistake, and you are out. So I think your understanding is right.

 

I will explain more tomorrow, with a better chart. But on the one I posted the bars are not real range bars, but they are 8 ticks (2 points) or sometimes more. The simple result is early entries would stop you most often, well and late entries with a little pull back too.

 

Regards,

 

Hal

[MidKnight 12]

Sure Hal, I'm just trying to get a feel if your profits are the result of the noise you mentioned - that is all. I knew one ER2 trader who traded like that - exits were within the noise but stop was clear of it.

[brownsfan019 17]

Brownsfan, can you tell me something about how you decide to bail on certain trades. Today it looks as though you made a number of trades that you decided weren't going to reach your target exits, but great trade on the ZB, I assume that is a currency trade.

 

Robert - Good question and observation. Something I meant to discuss...

 

Basically the premise on these scratch trades (taking out for +1 tick to cover commissions on the trade) are when price reaches 50% of my profit target, stop is moved to be+1.

 

The goal is to minimize the impact of losses, although it can (and does) tick me out of trades that move in my favor in hindsight. After reviewing some past trades, I wanted to see if I could keep losses to a minimum and catch the nice moves on the trades that work. Today was a good example where the ZB (which is a bond future btw) had a nice setup and the others didn't quite get to where I was shooting for.

[brownsfan019 17]

Here's a thread that discusses trading bond futures, which I would highly recommend taking a look at.

[hedonQ 10]

... half-decent trading day. Although pnl does not reflect it, I stuck to my game plan on all trades. To follow the process is the key.

 

Trade 2 and 3 were a product of my imagination or too much anticipatory in nature.

Trade 4 is the same as far as setup, but there's a key difference. I could see it in the price.

 

Don't be creative when you trade, read the price, keep ti simple. If you want to be creative take up basket weaving or something.

 

 

Good Luck.

[bathrobe 10]

Done by 10:30est. Size back.

[brownsfan019 17]

Looks good bath! What changed - just increased size? Not a bad morning!

 

[brownsfan019 17]

6-2-09

 

 

 

Pretty good day here all around. Missed a few trades again, but better.

[thalestrader 14]

Done by 10:30est. Size back.

 

Well played, B.R., well played!

[bathrobe 10]

Looks good bath! What changed - just increased size? Not a bad morning!

 

 

 

Thanks Brownsfan, Thales

 

The only difference is my capital, which makes all the difference for me because in this market I have become a scalper.

 

When I started posting in this thread I just started scalping with a very small account, which left me trading scared money feeling I had to take tiny profits.

[Mr_black 10]

today's trades...........................

[Mr_black 10]

Nice results, Mr. Black. You seem to be one of the lucky ones who could make Jack Hershey's method work for them !

 

May be I made Mr_Black's method work for me.....:haha:

[diablo272 10]

I have a question for you BF: Do you ever take two trades on different markets at the same time? That is, if you get a setup on two different markets at the same time, do you take both trades, or only one? I'm guessing the answer to this question might depend on how correlated the markets are, but I'm just curious.

[Marsupilami 10]

6-2-09

 

 

 

Pretty good day here all around. Missed a few trades again, but better.

 

I would say, you really cleaned up today, chapeau ! But much more impressive than one day's results is your consistency. :applaud:

Edited June 2, 2009 by Marsupilami

[Marsupilami 10]

May be I made Mr_Black's method work for me.....:haha:

 

Yeah, that could be the reason .

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Folks,

 

Here are today's trades.

 

Total Profit $2.85/share traded.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[brownsfan019 17]

I have a question for you BF: Do you ever take two trades on different markets at the same time? That is, if you get a setup on two different markets at the same time, do you take both trades, or only one? I'm guessing the answer to this question might depend on how correlated the markets are, but I'm just curious.

 

diablo - great question - I take 'em where I see 'em. Regardless of the implied correlation. Few reasons why...

 

My main markets being traded are Bonds (ZB), Indexes (ES/NQ), Gold (GG), Oil (QM) and Currencies (6E). Of that list you can argue that there is some correlation in some shape or form, but that does not stop me from taking simultaneous trades.

 

And even if you assume there is correlation (inverse or direct), that doesn't always hold true. I read somewhere that bonds and indexes have a 60%-70% inverse correlation - meaning 30%-40% of the time, they don't always move hand-in-hand. And I can attest to that. While I prefer to be long bonds, short indexes (or vice versa), it's not necessary.

 

As for gold, oil and currencies, some days those are correlated together, other days not; some days correlated to bond movements, other days not...

 

You get what I am saying.

 

This is also a reason why most trades are 1 contract - b/c I need to leave margin available should another trade appear. If I load up on the first trade I see, I have to pass on others and I cannot do that. Going in to each day, I know my edge lies in taking all the trades I see, on all the markets b/c I have no idea which market(s) will be moving that day. If I interfere and pick and choose what market(s) to trade, I'm just asking for trouble. My luck, I will load up on the losers and pass on the winners. To avoid that mental knightmare, I take all trades that I see on all markets being monitored.

 

If I could filter the winning markets from the losing markets each day, then I'd be bringing in considerable more gains. I have not found a way to do this (yet).

 

Also - I take every trade I see b/c many of these trades occur during the 8am-11am EST timeframe. While it's nice when I can enter trade #1, exit trade #1 and immediately enter trade #2, etc. the market doesn't always work out that nicely. What's more common is overlap and you just have to manage it. B/c I have a relatively small window to work my trades, I have to be ready to pounce when the trades appear.

[HAL9000 10]

Today I lost focus somehow,

but survived again.

 

While the first five trades were OK, but maybe not a clever choice,

the last one, was the one I fooled myself with today.

I chased the entry shorting at the wrong point, survived with my stop,

but haven't closed it in green whenever I could,

and after some waves I did it finally for a scratch.

Well and then immediately after that; market went down ... lol

 

[hedonQ 10]

If you want a good example of bad trading, here it is:

- jumping the gun. Same problem as yesterday, imagining price action as opposed to seeing it

- absolute lack of focus at the worst possible time

- shaken out of good setups

 

I have some disconnect between trading ideas and their execution, in real time.

Also, discipline and clarity is something to be desired.

 

 

Good Luck.

[MCM 10]

Got back on the horse today (ok..perhaps pony..or minature pony). And sat around and watched the chop. In the end - two quick trades that were breakout / momentum plays.

Not great. Not horrible. But I needed one of those days for my confidence after the past couple weeks.

 

First trade missed the goal by 1/2 pt - and just got out to cover commissions. 2nd trade - could have exited later - but end of day and thought better of hanging around in it.

[HAL9000 10]

So you are saying that the noise, by your standard is 5pts and the stop needs to be placed outside of that - sounds logical. And, that your targets are less than 5pts, so effectively within the noise?

 

Hi MidKnight,

 

I promised to explain a little bit more, so here it is for you and all other reading it, and I hope it will make sense.

Some thoughts, some explanations.

 

First of all, the absolute value of what you consider to call noise is somehow dependent from the (time) frame you trade, I guess we all know that.

I like to think about signal to noise, and yes, it plays a role within some sciences,

but lets keep it simple and forget about signal to noise for a moment.

 

So the question stays, how do I come to the view, that it is clever to use a

5 point stop trading the NQ, while I often just take 1 point profit.

This should be against risk/reward and therefore this should just lead into ruin.

 

So now, how should I start, I had and have a problem: Early entries.

 

So last week I looked on a chart like the one below.

Just on price movement, and counted 3 points up, 2 points down, 6 points up, 4 points down ...

So within a trend there a pullbacks, some may measure them as 61.8% retrace, some might call them ambush trades (50 % retrace).

I often found these 3/2s and 6/4 while larger pullbacks might be viewed as new trend, even if just temporary.

 

So I thought, assuming that I don't take the worst entries,

that a 5 point stop should keep me out of most of the trouble,

and also saves me, if there might start a trend change.

Now if you add other indicators like the linear regression bands you often see double bottoms or tops at the bands,

and these indicators look different on different (time) frames.

So that can be just a help to anticipate what will happen.

 

Now the 5 point stop gives you some room to stay in the trade or to cut it at BE if the band was violated in a way you don't like.

And well, sometimes you just simply will be stopped out.

 

Now to the 2 point noise:

The charts below show 2 point range bars (based on 5 s bars, so some are larger and the open of the next bar might be the close of the last 5 s bar, i.e. they are not really range bars).

One idea of me is:

Lets assume that 6 points moves are quite often, but they also stall then.

If you entered missing the first 3 points, why not just exit when 6 points are

reached (with 2 or 3 points profit).

Then wait for a pullback of 2 or 4 points for reentering into the same direction as before.

That would be really playing noise.

 

Anyway, the idea is somehow in my head, but if you look at my trades,

I haven't traded it yet. So its just an idea.

 

And now have a look at my charts, and if you like,

start to count the points.

 

 

 

 

 

Same view with some more indicators:

 

Edited June 2, 2009 by HAL9000
Comment on range bars.

[Robert Joyce 10]

Ok, only sim trading again today. $525. 15 trades; 7 winners, 5 losers and 3 stopped at even. The only good thing is I bailed on my losers before they hit my full 21 pt stop. Oh and I let my winners run till they hit my limit exits which was also good. I feel like such a chump for not trading real money. I guess you would have to say if Bathrobe is playing with 'scared money' then mine is 'terrified'. Maybe tomorrow. Great trading for all of you.

[thalestrader 14]

The charts below show 2 point range bars

 

 

 

 

Same view with some more indicators:

 

 

What really grabs my attention is that the scaling in the second chart distorts price action to such an extent as to occlude the trade opportunities that otherwise jump out at you on the first chart.