Trader P/L 2009

[hedonQ 10]

Overconfidence from yesterday did me in. Putting my ideas ahead of the price action. Who cares what I think.

 

I also have some issues with focus. Market can move for hours without dealing you a good hand.

Tough to keep folding and stay focused.

 

 

 

Good Luck.

[bathrobe 10]

Small day as usual, have to work on holding positions for longer.

[thalestrader 14]

Thales,

 

This is the chart of the equity day trade (paper) on Friday, would this have grabbed your attention?

 

Thanks,

 

Chris

 

Hi Chris,

 

Yes, that would certainly have caught my interest. It is always easier for me to identify opportunites on a chart after the fact, but I have gone ahead anyway and identified three places where I could have been induced to be a buyer. I have marked each of these with an ellipse and numbered them 1-3 respectively.

 

1) I often will buy a higher high than the high of the first five minutes, especially when the look like RHT's open on 5-15.

 

2) I will often buy after the first 5 minute swing high is formed and a higher high is made.

 

3) I will often buy when a pullback to a prior high holds as support (this is the bar where you identify what you annotated as a three bar reversal on your chart).

 

I'd like to think that had this stock been on my radar this past friday that I would have traded it as I outlined here. Of course, hindsight in trading is better than 20/20, and for every decent trade I make in real time I spot 10 after the fact when I go through my charts 600 or so charts at the end of the day.

 

At any rate, it was a good experience for me to take a look at this chart, Chris, and I thank you for sharing it with me.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Soultrader 12]

One tough day for me today.. pure frustration. Couldnt make anything today ended the day down 6 ticks. Minor loss... couldnt locate any good setups so tried to grind it out. Well, we still have tomorrow.

[Robert Joyce 10]

Ok, sorry no trades yesterday. I had business and other distractions and missed some decent entries. The rest of the day I just watched.

[Robert Joyce 10]

Dakine, outstanding but I don't get your shorthand:

 

VWAP-

 

DVAH-

 

HOD-

 

LOD-

 

MPers-

 

I trade the mini's and I would like to know what those are? And when you say a 4 pt trade is that with just one contract or more?

thanks

[diablo272 10]

VWAP = volume weighted average price

DVAH = developing value area high

HOD = high of day

LOD = low of day

MPers = Market Profilers

 

When you list the points like that, it's generally per contract.

[DaKine 10]

Dakine, outstanding but I don't get your shorthand:

 

VWAP-

 

DVAH-

 

HOD-

 

LOD-

 

MPers-

 

I trade the mini's and I would like to know what those are? And when you say a 4 pt trade is that with just one contract or more?

thanks

 

What Diablo said. thx D.

 

I'm trying to keep my mind of the cash and focusing on scoring points each day... my points are total points on 2-3 cars with scale outs.

[brownsfan019 17]

5-20-09

 

 

 

My head is not here this week. Don't have the focus needed. Back on track Thurs (I hope).

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Folks,

 

Here are today's trades, with charts.

 

Total trades: 2

Total Profit: $0.19/share total or $0.095/share traded, includes all fees.

 

Best to your trading,

 

Thales

Edited May 20, 2009 by thalestrader

[DaKine 10]

The trend is your friend until its no longer trending! Had some violent swings in equity today. Got caught with my pants down buying near the H and trying to scratch earlier entries. Bit the bullet and took the loss then flipped short and recovered most of the damage. Took another shot at a short at 914 got +4 on 1 car and moved the balance to b/e +1 913.75 get stopped and then at 914.25 the move reverses and brings new lows to 905 which was my second target . Tough one today but at least I was able to clean up the bloodshed. +.25 Woohoo!

[Robert Joyce 10]

Ok, 6 real trades today on the ym; 2 losers, 1 even and 3 winners for a 7pt profit. First 2 were losers which put me in a 30 pt hole. The last three were beauties 10pts, 18pts and 9pts. I am glad I was watching during that late day sell off.... ouch. But I feel good, the anxiety I feel when trading is starting to diminish. All in all a good day.

[Soultrader 12]

Not too great today... tried to pick bottoms early on and dug myself a hole in the first 2 trades. 3rd trade managed to bring my PNL back in the green with the 4th scalp trade putting me ahead. Not much gains today but good to end positive.

 

Also, had to leave in the afternoon so only traded the morning. Wish I had stayed... I missed some nice setups in the afternoon.

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Folks,

 

Here are this morning's trades results with charts.

 

Two trades, total profit $2.44/share

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Folks,

 

Here are this morning's trades results with charts.

 

Two trades, total profit $2.44/share

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

 

Revised morning stats - I thought I was finished for the morning but I liked what I saw on the NDAQ and took it. First chart was a pic taken soon after I took a long position filled at 18.31, and the second shot is where I limited out at 18.58.

 

Total profit for the morning $2.71/share

 

Best to your trading,

 

Thales

[DaKine 10]

Tough goings today. Took a trade in anticipation of the market getting back into value at DVAL instead new lows -3.5 on the full lot. Took some counter trend longs at the EOD both would have worked but moving stop to b/e +1 did me in again. I was expecting a short rally into the cash close when market got back into value but I took the order to the market when i should have been offering a point below. If I had offered instead of taking it to the market b/e would not have been hit and target of plus 8 would have got me back to b/e plus some change :crap:. Oh well back at it tomorrow but probly only trade the morn session since monday is a holiday...

[brownsfan019 17]

5-21-09

 

 

 

Not in tune w/ the 6E today apparently.

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Folks,

 

Two more trades this afternoon.

 

Final tally for the day: +$2.52/share

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Robert Joyce 10]

Ok, so no trades today. I took in a live trading webinar by John Carter and Herb Senters from Trade the Markets. It was worth the time spent to watch John trade a 24 lot on the ES. Two trades both hit the first 2 limits and he eventually sold the remainder with a market order when the move petered out. I like the way they trade for just small points, he took off 12 at 1/2 pt, 6 more at 1 point and then just waited for the last 6 to see if they would run. 2 trades he got $1200. So I'm on the right track learning to make consistent small point wins and then up the number of contracts. I did through on a sim trade when I had to go out, 2 contracts on the YM @ 8224 and it hit my 50 pt limit while I was out. The question is would I have put on that trade for real and hung in there until my limit was hit...... lol lol not likely... lol lol. Anyways I know what I need to do, I know how to do it, now all I need to do now is 'just do it'.

[Robert Joyce 10]

Actually I do have a muse for today.... 'lost opportunity'. I feel that with the indexes there is no lost opportunity, it will be there again tomorrow just like today, with just as many opportunities as today. Unlike stocks where you might watch a stock for days waiting for your 'opportunity' and if you miss it you have to go and look for another. Unless of course you are as good as Thalestrader. lol

[brownsfan019 17]

Ok, so no trades today. I took in a live trading webinar by John Carter and Herb Senters from Trade the Markets. It was worth the time spent to watch John trade a 24 lot on the ES. Two trades both hit the first 2 limits and he eventually sold the remainder with a market order when the move petered out.

 

I caught the tail end of that Robert. Did you happen to see where the initial stop order was?

 

:question:

 

If you didn't, it was a good 4+ pts away. Any idea what that trade looks like if price retraces immediately?

 

Obviously John has no interest in considering risk/reward b/c that trade was horrendous if you looked at what he was willing to risk to make 2 ticks and then 4 ticks, which averages out to 3 ticks. Yes, there was a 'runner' that was subsequently taken out for a small move.

 

While risk/reward is not everything, it can break systems rather quickly if not considered. I'm sure John's account could absorb a few losses in a row and slowly rebuild the account back up, but not sure how many could stomach that type of loss that purchase their courses.

 

The $1200 profit on 24 cts = $50/ct before commissions. All-in-all, that's 1 whole ES point. One point. My question to you would be - how impressive would that have been if he showed you how to make fifty bucks? B/c that's exactly what he did. He showed how to make 1 ES pt by risking 4+.

 

And that very well may work in the long run, I don't know. You just have to be aware of what the losses will look like (and feel like).

[brownsfan019 17]

Actually I do have a muse for today.... 'lost opportunity'. I feel that with the indexes there is no lost opportunity, it will be there again tomorrow just like today, with just as many opportunities as today. Unlike stocks where you might watch a stock for days waiting for your 'opportunity' and if you miss it you have to go and look for another. Unless of course you are as good as Thalestrader. lol

 

That's part of what I really like about Thales' trading style - he's searching for the most active issues of the current day and then does it again tomorrow. Doesn't matter what is moving that day or the next b/c it will at least be on his radar.

 

But I agree - if you are staring at GE and it's doing nothing, that can be boring. I would say that the indexes can feel like that at times as well - watching the ES can feel like watching paint dry when nothing is going on.

[Robert Joyce 10]

lol lol Brownsfan... You bring up a good point about Carter though, I did not really take notice of the his stops. After I thought to ask him if they really just go for such a small win, but one of my buddies follows him quite closely and says that is his plan, as he said those first two limits are 'fixed', so I assume that is his ultimate target, any runners are just gravy. Herb Senters traded the YM for 4 contracts with a 20 pt stop and a 20 point limit, he got stopped out for $400. loss.(yikes lol) My broker said the same as you, I was trading like that last summer because it seemed to me that the average 'move' on the ES was only 2 to 3 points before it retraced and I usually only made the 1 pt at the end of waiting. So I thought when it gets to 1 pt(ES) or 10(YM) just sell it and look for another trade and it works pretty well. The problem was trying to get to 50pts(1 contract) daily required 5 or 6 trades and by then my averages caught up to me and I would get stopped out.(Can't be right 100% of the time) So my p/l was left to the last few trades of the day, which is very frustrating. So if I get a good signal at an extreme(like the 50pter today) I will hold them longer. But really I think the average of 1 ptES or 10ptYM is pretty consistent. So on the YM I run a 21pt stop and a 10 or 15 pt limit, and like you my broker thinks if you are going to risk losing 20 pts you should at least want to make 30 or more. But the way I looked at it is if you really look at 5 min bars almost all of them retrace 50% or more on an average true range of 10 to 15 pts. So it is actually easier to hit a 10pt limit than it is a 21pt stop every 5 min no matter where you buy it and assuming you have some idea of how to gage trend then it should and does work very well. So this is another way to look at risk and maybe this is Carters rationale for a 4 pt stop. He really does expect his limit will be hit before long before his stop. Of course he is going to get hit sometime, but if that trade had gone against him I'll bet he would have sold it long before it hit that 4pt stop. That stop is really there just to guard against 'catastrophic' loss. But then again maybe I'm just full of _____.

[bathrobe 10]

I question TTM's model altogether. I used to be on the list of free videos and late one evening they sent me one called "Thanks fed for 25k" which included a 30 contract ES trade that was running and gathered many points. In later videos they discussed swing trading the ES with a 100 point stop (not kidding) and that there stolen squeeze indicator had fired off several 5k losses. I would not at all be surprised if most if not all of their revenue comes from selling overpriced indicators and web events, not trading. Of course this is just speculation, I was once a huge cheerleader of theirs, but the nonstop barrage of 7k training and 3k meetups in LA and 1500k indicators that are free on the web got to me after a while.

[Robert Joyce 10]

Bathrobe... lol lol lol lol lol lol lol lol....... I'm still laughing..... you funny guy....lol lol.

 

No but seriously, I think your right about them but wrong about the indicator(s). lol lol I'm still laughing...

 

No seriously, the methods and understandings I have learnt (I know that is not a word ... but it should be...) in 3 years of daily watching the indexes and the movement of lots of different indicators and oscillators, mostly sim trading but 4 bouts of real trading, many of the things I watch are used in the construction of their stuff. There are really only 3 things you can know about a single tick;

1- the price

2- the time

3- the volume

 

The only other thing you can know is the relationship between those 3 over time... which are MA's. As far as I can tell, and I'm admittedly extremely ignorant and lazy, all indicators and oscillators seek to construct MA's of some sort and compare them as to convergence or divergence. So much like Carter and Senters as I understand it their 'Squeeze' indicator is made up of the convergence/divergence of a Williams R something or other and a Mcllelan something or other, which are two oscillators which again are constructed with MA's. Their TTM is based simply on MA's too I think. They have now added something to help distinguish healthy signals from bad ones, probably an oscillator. I run both of these.... my buddy brought them to the table, I don't trade them but I do watch them and low and behold when I get a good crossover signal on my sets of EMA's one or more of those squeeze indicators go off. Hmmmmmmm

 

So to sum it up I think you just need a good indicator for trend, a good oscillator for strength or energy, and most important good money management, and needless to say good execution. And I don't think it really matters which ones you use as long as you know how to read them.... and that simply takes 'screen time'.

 

Oh and Brownsfan... I have not forgotten about getting some charts up that demonstrate the relationship between the same oscillator, Slow Stochastic, run on a 1 min and 5 min chart. To me the oscillation patterns between the two are a good measure of intraday energy or momentum surges and moves.

 

Anyways sorry to be so verbose.... lol