Trader P/L 2009

[brownsfan019 17]

Hal - I don't know how you trade, but that seems like a lot of trading going on there. Maybe take a step back and try to find more optimal places to enter.

[HAL9000 10]

Brown,

 

thanks and you are right, this is one crucial point.

 

Another thing I realized today is, that I cannot wait for my "real" entry. So I enter too early, but especially at decision points of the market this leads to random results. So its not real trading, more guessing.

These entries together with too high targets lead in result to stops and BE's.

 

I will try to work on my entries first now.

Less entries, but clearly defined using limited orders.

Then stops, targets and money management.

 

Otherwise I will have good days and bad days,

but the bad ones will eat me alive.

 

Hal

[Tams 20]

...but the bad ones will eat me alive.

 

 

 

the name of the game is "Staying Alive".

 

;-)

[HAL9000 10]

the name of the game is "Staying Alive".

 

;-)

 

LOL

 

Hi Tams,

 

yes your right.

 

And so far I have survived, I am still alive and kicking.

 

When I look at my cruel days in a positive way,

I think that whenever I recognize what I am actually doing wrong,

then I also know how to do it right.

 

Time will tell.

[brownsfan019 17]

Brown,

 

thanks and you are right, this is one crucial point.

 

Another thing I realized today is, that I cannot wait for my "real" entry. So I enter too early, but especially at decision points of the market this leads to random results. So its not real trading, more guessing.

These entries together with too high targets lead in result to stops and BE's.

 

I will try to work on my entries first now.

Less entries, but clearly defined using limited orders.

Then stops, targets and money management.

 

Otherwise I will have good days and bad days,

but the bad ones will eat me alive.

 

Hal

 

I agree - get those entries better refined and then stops/profit targets will follow.

[HAL9000 10]

OK, my trades are done for today.

 

In hindsight I should have just entered my first trade and ...

but in hindsight I am able to show you wonderful trades on my charts.

 

Only that real trades are a different thing.

Its so easy to fool yourself and others with hindsight.

 

And now its time for my homework.

 

I will figure it out.

 

[brownsfan019 17]

4-22-09

 

 

Overall a good day.

 

That ZB stop out really pissed me off though. I was short (which in hindsight was the right side) but my stop was picked off before retreating down again. I was able to get back on that short train, but P/L really should have been better. I wasn't mad about the stop placement, just one of those things where it went up just enough to grab me.

[JKLM 10]

is it bad ..no

is it great ...no

[remymor 10]

good day, followed trading plan.

 

What's interesting is how it's so easy to focus on P/L rather than the structure of the market. i.e. I was long and looking to exit this afternoon and completely missed a good opportunity to short the market during the last trading hour.

 

[bathrobe 10]

Brownsfan,

 

You are very impressive with the ZB, along with candlestick analysis do you use the 50 ma, the 30 yr, really seems to respect this?

[bathrobe 10]

Still trading with very small account, today was positive despite what the NT blotter shows, it takes into account a losing ZB trade I did on SIM.

 

Account should be up to full size soon.

Edited April 22, 2009 by bathrobe
blotter ddid not show

[pimind 10]

I normally trade the TF. My biggest problem is ghetting out of the trade to early.

 

I was in this trade fo 3 minutes. I took the quick profit and then watched it run for another 4point point before any sign of reversing. I took the trade at 9:30am EST and exited 3 minutes later.

 

 

All my trades are real money, I am a firm believer that unless you use real money it is just a game and means nothing. Demo trade to learn the system and software but any results are completely useless.

 

42209.bmp

Edited April 22, 2009 by pimind
format

[HAL9000 10]

All my trades are real money, I am a firm believer that unless you use real money it is just a game and means nothing. Demo trade to learn the system and software but any results are completely useless.

 

First of all: Welcome!

 

Well, but I have to disagree with your above statement.

At least partly. And maybe we even think the same way,

but let me explain.

 

I quite often saw the discussion of sim trading versus using trading with real money, even with just one single contract.

 

Also I have heard quite often that good traders (if they have made it) have

blown out two or three accounts.

 

So now, here is my view:

 

If you start, whether you are completely new, or you have traded other

instruments before (stocks for example) always start with a sim account.

But if you sim, trade only the amount of contracts, you would trade in real.

Don't cheat, double up and double up until you see green.

 

And test, as my kind of dose escalation study yesterday (but I had similar sim days before without the intention of yesterday).

 

If you are able to sim trade consistently, well it doesn't mean that you are able to trade with real money as well. That's were we agree, I think.

 

On the other hand, as long as you are not consistently profitable in sim trading, why should you assume, that it would work out with real money.

So long, if you still have one, keep your job.

 

Well, I don't have one anymore. Maybe I am a dreamer.

 

So once more welcome.

And I hope, that we have just said the same thing using different words.

 

Hal

Edited April 22, 2009 by HAL9000
Edited quote, typings

[pimind 10]

I think we are on the same page. You should use a sim to learn the software. and to try a new system or a new instrument. I agree. But I guess im tired of seeing people post sim results like they mean anything. When I first started I sim traded for a while I did very well, I traded the account size i was going to trade for real, I used the same money mangement, etc. I was so excited I strated thinking of the things I would buy. Then I started trading for real and everything changed stop were hit more often profit targets were just missed. The whole game had changed. I quickly blew out half of my account. Reality had set in. This is NOT a SIM this is REAL. Thankfully I step back and adjusted my mentality. That and the fear of trying to find a job I guess. So just a word of advice for newbies, demo to learn the software and sytem, then trade min amounts.

[HAL9000 10]

One more,

 

in my view sim trading is an important part of the educational process of a trader.

 

After this step is mastered, real trading is the next one.

 

Sim trading should give you the confidence, that might give a trader a higher probability to reach his goal: consistent profitable trading.

 

Otherwise, what its worth, if someone says:

 

Execute your plan!

 

Whatever plan it is, it has to be tested before,

and my belief is, testing means simulation.

 

Well yes, its a different story if you sit on a 500k real account, and like to play with one NQ contract for fun, because sim is boring. But that is gambling in my view.

 

:helloooo:

Edited April 22, 2009 by HAL9000
Unimportant

[MCM 10]

As a beginning trader (less than 6 months) - I found sim trading to be of little use except using it to learn the platforms (especially Ninja). You swear to yourself that greed / fear / pride wont affect your trading - and by god you do well. Really thought I would hit the ground running after a month of sim trading.

 

Until you go live - and the three henchman are sitting in your chair taking turns pummeling your ego.

 

Cant count the amount of premature exits I took - (and still take, though at a lesser clip happily) and the 2 or 3 "hope it turns around soon - hell - should I add to the position and average down" - cardinal sins that I swore I wouldnt do.

 

Live trading taught me I overtrade - I wasnt picking my spots - and I was not trusting my positions once I did pull the trigger.

 

Happily - no account was blown out - and was reasonable about the amounts I let flow into the hands of more skilled traders. And - nowadays, I am seeing more green than red typically. (though not always).

 

The good thing - I am mostly succeeding at rating my day as a success on whether or not I follow the plan - and trade the plan. I have actually got damn near to convincing myself of that "good" trade that lost 2 points in the ES.

 

Am a little hesitant to throw the results into this forum - but after reading the 27 pages - it is clear you folks are kind...perhaps I will be brave enough to post. Appreciate alot of the comments - it is a great community to learn from. I have alot to learn - look forward to peaking over everyones shoulders.

 

P

[brownsfan019 17]

Brownsfan,

 

You are very impressive with the ZB, along with candlestick analysis do you use the 50 ma, the 30 yr, really seems to respect this?

 

BR - First, thanks. It's been working well on bonds for some time now.

 

As for the setup, I'm trying to cut back on the amount of entries so I'm much more particular on my entries now. While I will reference a mov. average or 2, they are not necessarily the prime/only trigger being used. In other words, I am not just looking for pullbacks to the MA. I think there is some possibility for that on bonds, but my focus now is getting in the AM and when there's momentum (or at least when I think there will be momentum coming). Often times by the time you get your pullback, that momentum is over.

 

So to answer your question, the MA is not a primary trigger for me, but is referenced on the charts. At the minimum, I'll glance where a few are, but sometimes I need to pull the trigger before it officially might pullback b/c of what I am really looking to exploit.

 

With that said, there are some great posts in the candlestick corner about these methods and bearbull had some very good posts on the matter. I also posted an article from Bigalow, who is a candlestick guy that uses MA's as well.

 

If I was trading all day, I would most definitely be using these more; but I'm not doing that anymore. I'm taking a birds eye view of about 10 or so markets and just lay there waiting until price gets to my entry zone. Once price gets there, I zoom into that chart and look for an optimal entry price and logical stop/profit targets. Then I put the trade on and do my best to let it go... easier said than done.

 

Basically the plan is be done trading by Noon EST, if not sooner. I watch a nice block of markets and only enter what I consider to be my best setup. When the trade triggers, I go in hard and look to push it. At this point in my career, it's about the $ - meaning that I am looking to make $500-$1000/contract traded per day. If that goal is hit, it's a good day and then it's time to shut the screens down and do other stuff.

 

One day I might actually put all these ideas and things into a book. I've often thought that if I had a ghost writer help me put all my ideas into a cohesive, readable format, that I could help some traders out there, esp those new to trading. I think the current trading books out there are good, but too many sugar coat this thing. I'd love to write a real life, in your face book... maybe some day...

[Marsupilami 10]

 

I'm taking a birds eye view of about 10 or so markets and just lay there waiting until price gets to my entry zone. Once price gets there, I zoom into that chart and look for an optimal entry price and logical stop/profit targets. Then I put the trade on and do my best to let it go... easier said than done.

 

 

 

 

Hi Brownsfan, just to clarify, by "optimal entry price", do you mean a candle stick based setup in your entry zone ? And how do you arrive at your zones, if I may ask ? Are these traditional S&R zones or floor pivots ?

 

BTW, your P&L is very impressive, chapeau ! You should definitely write a book someday !

[brownsfan019 17]

Hi Brownsfan, just to clarify, by "optimal entry price", do you mean a candle stick based setup in your entry zone ? And how do you arrive at your zones, if I may ask ? Are these traditional S&R zones or floor pivots ?

 

BTW, your P&L is very impressive, chapeau ! You should definitely write a book someday !

 

Mars - I am looking at the candlesticks when price enters my target area. Would prefer to see bullish candles when going long and vice versa. It's not a deal breaker though if I feel the risk/reward is worth the entry, even if the candle formations might not be 100% on my side.

 

The zones I look to enter at are where I feel volume is going to step in. If my timing is on, I can get on just before a volume surge can come through. It works a good chunk of the time, but obviously not all the time. I am prone to the fakeout like everyone else.

 

IMO the easiest trades are the ones where you go into profit rather quickly. I know - duh! But getting into the trade before that occurs is a little more tricky. Basically my view on this is to look at your charts - current and past - and see where volume comes in and if you can find some patterns. Depending on the markets you are watching, could be time of day, certain days of the week, when certain econ reports are announced, etc. etc. While there are many variables, if you put the puzzle together, you might find some similarities of when your markets move. Nothing is bullet proof, but you don't need to be bullet proof. You just need a reliable analysis that repeats itself.

 

I strongly recommend watching multiple markets and zeroing in on the better setups. When you are just watching one market, you are stuck there - good or bad. I know many around here focus on the ES or NQ, but there's plenty of times when that is like watching paint dry; meanwhile other markets are moving.

[brownsfan019 17]

4-23-09

 

Saved by a wheat trade today. If I can contain the losing days to something like this, the account will survive. I know what it looks like on winning days, I just have to contain the losing ones.

[remymor 10]

followed my plan, acceptable losses today. It happens. My goal is to take all my edges and realize that each invidual trade outcome is random. But, over the long run, my wins will be larger than my losses. This is easier said than done, but that is my focus. It's about thinking in probabilities, which I learned from Mark Douglas's books.

[JKLM 10]

ok...done for today

score ? moderate because low win ...

but I am satisfied, because I follow my plan and avoid traps

[bathrobe 10]

Stayed out of some trades which would have gone against me. 1 point, 1 contract.

[pimind 10]

Traded a few 3 tick scalps today. Kids on vaca so no time to follow the charts for any length of time.

 

 

Here are the trades:

 

[sensei 10]

Love the thread, good idea

Edited April 24, 2009 by sensei